Dit is een meerdelig bericht in MIME-indeling. ------=_NextPart_000_000C_01C0339A.34C9E280 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="koi8-r" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MIRNEWS.484 10 October 2000 During the last weeks those interested in the future of the MIR space = station have to endure a uninterrupted stream of meanings and comments = about the future of the MIR space station.=20 Roughly this material can be divided into 2 contradicting tendenses each = other. One is based on information from MIRcorp and people who are sure = that the initiative of some rich persons in the West guarantees an = extension of MIR's existence with at least 3 years. Regretfully this is = the result of wishful thinking.=20 A very important fact is that the whole MIR-complex is property of the = Russian state. To be clear: inclusive the hard- and software on board, = also all what has been brought in by foreign users. So the Russian = government is free to do all what she wants, but is also legally = responsible for all eventual calamities caused by the station, for = instance an uncontrolled entry in the earth's atmosphere. Russia leases = the station to MIRcorp, a private organisation of which 40% is in the = hands of western investors and 60% in those of RKK Energiya, the = organisation which thusfar solely explored and controlled the MIR = station. In fact a strange construction, as it is clear that the western = part of MIRcorp has to secure the financial basis for the commercial = exploitation of MIR. RKK Energiya wants to do all what is possible to = maintain the MIR-station, but it is a private organisation successfully = operating on the international market but nevertheless has to deal with = the everlasting struggle to survive economically and it is not in its = interest to use profits from the production of spaceflight hardware to = keep MIR alive.=20 When this firm was still a state enterprise all went well and RKK = Energiya made money by exploring the MIR station: guest cosmonauts from = several countries made spaceflights in the framework of contracts = between the Russian government and states and their organisations (CNES, = DLR, NASA, but also ESA) paid for such flights and delivered the hard- = and software for the experiments executed by their 'astronauts'.=20 The government of the Soviet Union and later Russia regularly took care = of extra financial support when more money was needed. The Soviet = government for instance assigned 15 million dollars for the expedition = of Helen Sharman when Mrs. Thatcher refused to pay 20 million for the = British mission and British scientific institutes only could find 5 = million for that flight. In general, RKK Energiya could proceed with MIR = without risks although the Russian government always assisgned less than = needed. Often this scarce support caused delays (for instance the = launches of modules and necessary modifications). Sometimes certain = plans could be realised by borrowing rockets from the rocket forces.=20 But now the exploitation is fully commercial and all what the Russians = or their partners want to do with the MIR-station has to be paid by = MIRcorp. The station has been leased with the purpose to made profits. = MIRcorp started with the announcement of a number of intentions but = insiders immediately stated that these were unrealistic. Examples were = the use of the MIR-station as an Internet portal, or for repairs of = orbiting satellites, advertising and the transfer of some of the = station's modules in a 'space hotel' for rich tourists. The only = realistic possibility was the use of the experiment hardware in the = laboratory modules with the exception of the damaged module Spektr.=20 If this might give solace is in doubt for the International Space = Station derives her viability from the continuation and the = modernisation of a lot of MIR experiments and the majority of users of = ISS laboratoria will consist of former MIR clients. But it will last a = few years before the ISS will be fully operational and MIR might be able = to serve experimenters during that interim period.=20 So both information streams indicate that there are serious financial = problems. In fact the persons that gave money did not invest in the = future of the MIR-station, but they paid only to support the present = existence of the MIR-complex. The first publications mentioned lots of = money to be invested in MIR, but sponsors, generous donors and users did = not show up as much as expected and instead of hundreds of millions only = sums of approximately dozens of millions came in. MIRcorp offered shares = and recently promised to have these signed in space for the = shareholders.=20 So regretfully no substantial investments came in and without such = investments commercial initiatives do not have a future. The payments = remained limited to the costs for some freighters and 1 manned = expedition. Proudly MIRcorp published about these payments, but to keep = MIR operational much more is needed and this is the main problem. For = that the Russians need more money, so no promises, but 'cash'. Staffs = has to be paid. Workers of all organisations, supporting projects like = MIR, for instance the Training Centre for Cosmonauts, TsPK, near Moscow = are scandalously underpaid.=20 There has been word about a number of candidates for tourist flights, = but these candidates one by one cried off except for one: Dennis Tito. = This very rich citizen of the United States, who already had a career in = spaceflight, is still a serious candidate and nowadays he is regularly = present in TsPK to get prepared for a flight. He already paid part of = the amount he promised. How much is still unclear. A few weeks ago = rumoured a sum of 22 million of the total promised 50 million dollars. = Later there were denials and the amount of 17 million showed up without = a reference how much he had promised. He refused to pay the rest after = his flight as a tourist and he demanded from the Russians the guarantee = that he would fly. For somebody from the west a reasonable desire, but = the Russians want to get the money immediately and are reluctant to give = that guarantee. So more or less a stalemate situation.=20 But nevertheless his training goes on, but this is not easy. He does not = speak Russian and his only wish is to fly as a tourist, so to see the = earth from above and to play somewhat with weightlessness. So there is = no word about experiments or a training to become a real cosmonaut. = According to the most actual information the flight of Tito will now = take place not earlier than the summer of 2001. Originally there would = be a Main Expedition nr. 29 with the crew Sharipov and Vinogradov. With = the relief crew for that mission, Main Expedition nr. 30 consisting of = Musabayev and Baturin, tourist Tito would make a short flight of 10 or = 14 days. Most likely the ME 29 will be cancelled.=20 Meanwhile the MIR-space station has to remain alive and measures are = needed to prevent that the altitude of the complex will be reduced too = much under influence of the high solar activity. So a freighter has to = be launched to correct the orbit. The Russian government made available = such a freighter and this will be launched from Baykonur on 15.10.2000 = at 2149UTC (so for us still on 15.10, for Russia and Kazakhstan already = 16.10). So MIRcorp gets this freighter 'free of charge', but possibly this must = not be considered to be a little present. It is in the interest of the = Russian government to maintain a safe orbit and this freighter can also = be used if she decides to 'dump' the MIR-complex.=20 The finances at MIRcorp's disposal are not sufficient to maintain the = operational status of the MIR-complex. When we speak about Russians = involved in the flight of the MIR-space station we speak about a great = number of organisations, who all need a part of that money. And as = already mentioned, before that was not such a big problem. They, in the = first place RKK Energiya always got, if needed at least somewhat from = the Russian government. These days every rubel of the budget for manned = spaceflight has to go to the Russian contribution in the ISS according = to promises made to the partners in that project. However Putin promised = to assign money for the prolongation of MIR's life, but thusfar he did = not give a 'kopeyka' for that purpose. Obviously RKK Energiya so = seriously counted on this, that she recently ventilated cries of = distress that 'unless there would be extra money, the MIR-station had to = be burnt up in the atmosphere after 15.02.2001'. Because of the fact that apart from tourism (I leave out of = consideration of some recent fantastic ideas) and customers for = experiments are not queuing no money could be found for the continuation = of the exploitation, the question is if it is possible to make the = station profitable by space tourism.=20 If the prices for tourist flights vary around 20 million dollar, this is = impossible. For the flight of 1 tourist combined with maintaining the = operational state between tourist flights, launches of freighters to = correct the orbit for instance, that price has to be much higher. There = are more activities to be paid: the trainings, not only of the tourists = themselves, but the cosmonauts also have to undergo an extra training = and what about the contributions in the infrastructures on earth: flight = control, communications and launch facilities. And if something special = happens, i.e. failures or emergency situations, extra money has to be = found.=20 A lot of persons, responsible for Russian manned spaceflight, like = designers, constructors, heads of departments and industries, state that = Russia only can maintain her important role as spaceflight power if she = fully concentrates on the ISS. An example is Koptev, the Head of = Rosaviakosmos, the Russian NASA. Their fear is that the goodwil they = have among their partners in the ISS will vanish if they too much cling = to the maintaining of the MIR-station. So this all is just my opinion based on the study of all information = available, but also on that what I could determine during my visit to = Russia a few weeks ago.=20 Personally I would very much regret if at short notice the = MIR-exploitation would be concluded. With a lot of effort and extra = investments the station can survive for some time. But this will be only = possible if the Russian government changes her present policy and , = eventually in agreement with her ISS partners, takes MIR under her care, = assignes sufficient means for that purpose and puts these at the = disposal of RKK Energiya for a solid exploitation and a responsible = control over the MIR space station.=20 We, enthousiasts for manned spaceflight don't need to be afraid that we = suffer any deficiency for on 30.10.2000 the first main expediton to the = ISS will start. The crew consists of the American Shepherd and the = Russians Gidzenko and Krikalyov. During the flight to the ISS with the = Soyuz-TM (so not yet a Soyuz-TMA) Gidzenko will be commander of that = S-TM. After ingress of that crew into the ISS Shepherd will take over = the command and flight control for the greater part will be in the hands = of Flight Control in Houston.=20 Chris van den Berg, NL-9165/A-UK3202 ------=_NextPart_000_000C_01C0339A.34C9E280 Content-Type: text/html; charset="koi8-r" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD W3 HTML//EN">MIRNEWS.484 10 October 2000
During the last weeks those interested in the future = of the MIR=20 space station have to endure a uninterrupted stream of meanings and = comments=20 about the future of the MIR space station.
Roughly this material can be divided into 2 = contradicting=20 tendenses each other. One is based on information from MIRcorp and = people who=20 are sure that the initiative of some rich persons in the West guarantees = an=20 extension of MIR’s existence with at least 3 years. Regretfully = this is=20 the result of wishful thinking.
A very important fact is that the whole MIR-complex = is property=20 of the Russian state. To be clear: inclusive the hard- and software on = board,=20 also all what has been brought in by foreign users. So the Russian = government is=20 free to do all what she wants, but is also legally responsible for all = eventual=20 calamities caused by the station, for instance an uncontrolled entry in = the=20 earth’s atmosphere. Russia leases the station to MIRcorp, a = private=20 organisation of which 40% is in the hands of western investors and 60% = in those=20 of RKK Energiya, the organisation which thusfar solely explored and = controlled=20 the MIR station. In fact a strange construction, as it is clear that the = western=20 part of MIRcorp has to secure the financial basis for the commercial=20 exploitation of MIR. RKK Energiya wants to do all what is possible to = maintain=20 the MIR-station, but it is a private organisation successfully operating = on the=20 international market but nevertheless has to deal with the everlasting = struggle=20 to survive economically and it is not in its interest to use profits = from the=20 production of spaceflight hardware to keep MIR alive.
When this firm was still a state enterprise all went = well and=20 RKK Energiya made money by exploring the MIR station: guest cosmonauts = from=20 several countries made spaceflights in the framework of contracts = between the=20 Russian government and states and their organisations (CNES, DLR, NASA, = but also=20 ESA) paid for such flights and delivered the hard- and software for the=20 experiments executed by their ‘astronauts’.
The government of the Soviet Union and later Russia = regularly=20 took care of extra financial support when more money was needed. The = Soviet=20 government for instance assigned 15 million dollars for the expedition = of Helen=20 Sharman when Mrs. Thatcher refused to pay 20 million for the British = mission and=20 British scientific institutes only could find 5 million for that flight. = In=20 general, RKK Energiya could proceed with MIR without risks although the = Russian=20 government always assisgned less than needed. Often this scarce support = caused=20 delays (for instance the launches of modules and necessary = modifications).=20 Sometimes certain plans could be realised by borrowing rockets from the = rocket=20 forces.
But now the exploitation is fully commercial and all = what the=20 Russians or their partners want to do with the MIR-station has to be = paid by=20 MIRcorp. The station has been leased with the purpose to made profits. = MIRcorp=20 started with the announcement of a number of intentions but insiders = immediately=20 stated that these were unrealistic. Examples were the use of the = MIR-station as=20 an Internet portal, or for repairs of orbiting satellites, advertising = and the=20 transfer of some of the station’s modules in a ‘space = hotel’=20 for rich tourists. The only realistic possibility was the use of the = experiment=20 hardware in the laboratory modules with the exception of the damaged = module=20 Spektr.
If this might give solace is in doubt for the = International=20 Space Station derives her viability from the continuation and the = modernisation=20 of a lot of MIR experiments and the majority of users of ISS laboratoria = will=20 consist of former MIR clients. But it will last a few years before the = ISS will=20 be fully operational and MIR might be able to serve experimenters during = that=20 interim period.
So both information streams indicate that there are = serious=20 financial problems. In fact the persons that gave money did not invest = in the=20 future of the MIR-station, but they paid only to support the present = existence=20 of the MIR-complex. The first publications mentioned lots of money to be = invested in MIR, but sponsors, generous donors and users did not show up = as much=20 as expected and instead of hundreds of millions only sums of = approximately=20 dozens of millions came in. MIRcorp offered shares and recently promised = to have=20 these signed in space for the shareholders.
So regretfully no substantial investments came in and = without=20 such investments commercial initiatives do not have a future. The = payments=20 remained limited to the costs for some freighters and 1 manned = expedition.=20 Proudly MIRcorp published about these payments, but to keep MIR = operational much=20 more is needed and this is the main problem. For that the Russians need = more=20 money, so no promises, but ‘cash’. Staffs has to be paid. = Workers of=20 all organisations, supporting projects like MIR, for instance the = Training=20 Centre for Cosmonauts, TsPK, near Moscow are scandalously underpaid. =
There has been word about a number of candidates for = tourist=20 flights, but these candidates one by one cried off except for one: = Dennis Tito.=20 This very rich citizen of the United States, who already had a career in = spaceflight, is still a serious candidate and nowadays he is regularly = present=20 in TsPK to get prepared for a flight. He already paid part of the amount = he=20 promised. How much is still unclear. A few weeks ago rumoured a sum of = 22=20 million of the total promised 50 million dollars. Later there were = denials and=20 the amount of 17 million showed up without a reference how much he had = promised.=20 He refused to pay the rest after his flight as a tourist and he demanded = from=20 the Russians the guarantee that he would fly. For somebody from the west = a=20 reasonable desire, but the Russians want to get the money immediately = and are=20 reluctant to give that guarantee. So more or less a stalemate situation. =
But nevertheless his training goes on, but this is = not easy. He=20 does not speak Russian and his only wish is to fly as a tourist, so to = see the=20 earth from above and to play somewhat with weightlessness. So there is = no word=20 about experiments or a training to become a real cosmonaut. According to = the=20 most actual information the flight of Tito will now take place not = earlier than=20 the summer of 2001. Originally there would be a Main Expedition nr. 29 = with the=20 crew Sharipov and Vinogradov. With the relief crew for that mission, = Main=20 Expedition nr. 30 consisting of Musabayev and Baturin, tourist Tito = would make a=20 short flight of 10 or 14 days. Most likely the ME 29 will be cancelled. =
Meanwhile the MIR-space station has to remain alive = and=20 measures are needed to prevent that the altitude of the complex will be = reduced=20 too much under influence of the high solar activity. So a freighter has = to be=20 launched to correct the orbit. The Russian government made available = such a=20 freighter and this will be launched from Baykonur on 15.10.2000 at = 2149UTC (so=20 for us still on 15.10, for Russia and Kazakhstan already 16.10).
So MIRcorp gets this freighter ‘free of = charge’,=20 but possibly this must not be considered to be a little present. It is = in the=20 interest of the Russian government to maintain a safe orbit and this = freighter=20 can also be used if she decides to ‘dump’ the MIR-complex. =
The finances at MIRcorp’s disposal are not = sufficient to=20 maintain the operational status of the MIR-complex. When we speak about = Russians=20 involved in the flight of the MIR-space station we speak about a great = number of=20 organisations, who all need a part of that money. And as already = mentioned,=20 before that was not such a big problem. They, in the first place RKK = Energiya=20 always got, if needed at least somewhat from the Russian government. = These days=20 every rubel of the budget for manned spaceflight has to go to the = Russian=20 contribution in the ISS according to promises made to the partners in = that=20 project. However Putin promised to assign money for the prolongation of=20 MIR’s life, but thusfar he did not give a ‘kopeyka’ = for that=20 purpose. Obviously RKK Energiya so seriously counted on this, that she = recently=20 ventilated cries of distress that ‘unless there would be extra = money, the=20 MIR-station had to be burnt up in the atmosphere after = 15.02.2001’.
Because of the fact that apart from tourism (I leave = out of=20 consideration of some recent fantastic ideas) and customers for = experiments are=20 not queuing no money could be found for the continuation of the = exploitation,=20 the question is if it is possible to make the station profitable by = space=20 tourism.
If the prices for tourist flights vary around 20 = million=20 dollar, this is impossible. For the flight of 1 tourist combined with=20 maintaining the operational state between tourist flights, launches of=20 freighters to correct the orbit for instance, that price has to be much = higher.=20 There are more activities to be paid: the trainings, not only of the = tourists=20 themselves, but the cosmonauts also have to undergo an extra training = and what=20 about the contributions in the infrastructures on earth: flight control, = communications and launch facilities. And if something special happens, = i.e.=20 failures or emergency situations, extra money has to be found.
A lot of persons, responsible for Russian manned = spaceflight,=20 like designers, constructors, heads of departments and industries, state = that=20 Russia only can maintain her important role as spaceflight power if she = fully=20 concentrates on the ISS. An example is Koptev, the Head of = Rosaviakosmos, the=20 Russian NASA. Their fear is that the goodwil they have among their = partners in=20 the ISS will vanish if they too much cling to the maintaining of the=20 MIR-station.
So this all is just my opinion based on the study of = all=20 information available, but also on that what I could determine during my = visit=20 to Russia a few weeks ago.
Personally I would very much regret if at short = notice the=20 MIR-exploitation would be concluded. With a lot of effort and extra = investments=20 the station can survive for some time. But this will be only possible if = the=20 Russian government changes her present policy and , eventually in = agreement with=20 her ISS partners, takes MIR under her care, assignes sufficient means = for that=20 purpose and puts these at the disposal of RKK Energiya for a solid = exploitation=20 and a responsible control over the MIR space station.
We, enthousiasts for manned spaceflight don’t = need to be=20 afraid that we suffer any deficiency for on 30.10.2000 the first main = expediton=20 to the ISS will start. The crew consists of the American Shepherd and = the=20 Russians Gidzenko and Krikalyov. During the flight to the ISS with the = Soyuz-TM=20 (so not yet a Soyuz-TMA) Gidzenko will be commander of that S-TM. After = ingress=20 of that crew into the ISS Shepherd will take over the command and flight = control=20 for the greater part will be in the hands of Flight Control in Houston. =
Chris van den Berg, NL-9165/A-UK3202