[FPSPACE] China to End Missile Part Exports

[Dwayne Allen Day]

On Thu, 23 Nov 2000, Dan Barkley wrote:

> I understand that the State Dept. has the last say on  certifying license
> applications for satellite exports. According to the Times (London)The
> State Department announced  yesterday it was lifting sanctions on
> Chinese military technology companies and would begin to consider
> approving licences for the mainland to launch US satellites.

As I have since learned, there is wiggle room in this, so that State does
have final authority, but Congress determines how much leash to
give it.  (More below.)


> Yeah that's the arguement. But I think this announcement is more geared
> toward thwarting US interest in NMD and arms sales to Taiwan. I think
> there is an implicit 'quid quo pro'. In 1992, when President Bush decided

A couple of points (well, three anyway):

-China has made this pledge twice before, in 1992 and 1994, and broke it
both times.  The Clinton administration thus looks a little like Charlie
Brown, believing that Lucy will not pull the football away this
time-promise.  It is doubtful that a Republican Congress will be so
trusting.

-Russia has just announced that it is pulling out of a promise to stop
selling military equipment to Iran.  (To be precise, they announced this
back in October, but the administration kept it silent, apparently because
Gore had claimed that this Gore-Chernomyrdin agreement was one of the high
points of his Vice Presidency and did not want it to fall apart
embarrassingly before the November elections. This agreement also included
various space provisions as well.)  The collapse of the Russian agreement
is likely to have an impact on the Chinese promise, because the critics
can say "See?  We told you so!"

-if the US was not otherwise preoccupied now, this stuff would be much
bigger news, particularly in Congress.  It will become bigger news once we
solve our little election problem and get people in office.


What does this have to do with space?  Potentially a lot.  Next year there
may be a lot of effort to a) halt satellite licenses to China, and
b) impose sanctions on Russia.  Could the ISS relationship
suffer?  Possibly.  Do not think that space is immune; if the US-Russian
relationship deteriorates, space cooperation could suffer as well.



DDAY