[FPSPACE] Time To Declassify Historical Imagery

[Dwayne Allen Day]

(this is a long reply--sorry)


On Mon, 6 Nov 2000, Joanne Gabrynowicz wrote:

> 	RE: "It seems only logical that researchers should have access to
> Gambit and Hexagon imagery, regardless of the objections raised by the
> intelligence community. This is true, especially in the wake of the
> commercially available 1-meter satellite imagery ."

I actually disagree with Charles on this a bit.  More in a moment.


> 	At an NRC meeting held this last Friday to discuss foreign policy
> and remote sensing, a NIMA rep said (and I paraphrase) that as more
> private systems are licensed, less data can be released. This is because
> together, the old images and the new commercial images can reveal national
> security trends over time.
> 	Comments?

If this is indeed what he said, then it really makes no sense to me.  That
is not unusual, however, since the intel community has often made silly
arguments about how come material could not be declassified.

For these systems we are really talking about two qualities of
images.  The HEXAGON and the early GAMBIT systems had resolution of about
.5 meters.  That is roughly equivalent to the next generation commercial
systems that the US government will soon approve.  (In short, the 1-meter
commercial systems are not good enough for the US government.  The spooks
want .5 meter commercial systems and they will then buy the imagery.)  So
for much of this historical imagery  we are not talking about a
substantive increase in resolution over systems that will soon be flying.

The later GAMBIT systems (1967-1985) got really good, up to about 2.5
inches (6.35 cm).  This is much better than any commercial systems that
the US government will allow anytime soon.  So for some of the historical
imagery, we are talking about photos that are far better than anything
that will ever be available in the commercial world.  This stuff is
exclusively military.


Now, what are the arguments against releasing this historical imagery?

Supposedly, the suits at Space Imaging, which operate Ikonos and want to
sell commercial imagery to everybody, are opposed to releasing historical
imagery even at .5 meter resolution.  They fear that releasing this
imagery will undercut their market.  But this is just crass commercial
protectionism--they want to make a buck.  (However, they argue to the CIA
that if they *cannot* make a buck, then they will not be able to stay in
business and provide a service to the military.  So they are essentially
arguing that their commercial success is in the interest of "national
security.")

But I think that there are two good, legitimate arguments *against*
declassifying the high-resolution imagery as well as some of the
medium-resolution GAMBIT imagery.

One argument is that this imagery will demonstrate the effectiveness of
deception techniques.  The Soviets attempted to hide some of their
facilities from US spysats during the 1960s, 70s and 80s.  They could go
check the actual imagery and see if they were successful.  They could then
tell other countries (like Iran?), what techniques work against American
satellites.  (There is no guarantee that this still works, given the fact
that new systems can image in the infrared, but it is still a fear.)


The other argument is that the close-look systems like GAMBIT could reveal
*other* sources of intelligence information.  For instance, what if the
United States took a lot of pictures of an empty field in Siberia that
just happened to house an underground facility?  A Russian intelligence
agent might look at these photos and wonder how the Americans knew that
the underground facility was there.  What if they suspected that a spy had
given the US info on this facility back in the 1970s?  That suspect could
now be hauled off to jail and executed.  (Remember that Aldrich Ames gave
up the name of a top spy who had stopped spying for the US over a decade
before.  That person had been suspected, but never caught.  Ames gave the
KGB the info they needed to execute this person.)  This is what the intel
community fears--that these photos could tip off the Russians about other
intelligence collection systems and sources.


I have to admit that I find this latter argument convincing.  I believed
in total declassification until about two months ago, when a colleague who
used to be in CIA told me about this concern and said that this is the
real reason why *some* people in the government are so opposed to
declassifying the imagery.  (Of course, many oppose the declassification 
simply because they are living in the past.)

While I think that this imagery has much historical value, we have to
admit that it has little *relative* historical value compared to many
other subjects.  Yes, we all want to see high-resolution spysat photos of
N-1 rockets.  But in wider historical terms, there are much more important
things for the US government to release.  For instance, there are
important documents on the US approach to China in the early 1970s that
have not been released.  There are important histories of the Bay of Pigs
and US covert action that have not been released.  These are more
important than space photos of Soviet territory.  There are many more
historians interested in these subjects, and, frankly, these subjects sell
more books.  Space is not very important.


I think that the medium-resolution HEXAGON imagery should be completely
declassified.  I believe that much of the medium-resolution GAMBIT imagery
can be completely declassified.  But I am very reticent about releasing
the high-resolution imagery even though I would love to see the photos.  
Perhaps this material could be released in selected batches, such as the
expected targets--big military bases, launch facilities, and Moscow.  But
I do not believe that it is wise to release it all at this time.



DDAY