[FPSPACE] Russian newspaper: Pope Release Swapped for Proton Launch Quota Elimination

[JamesOberg@aol.com]

JimO: This article suggests that the lifting of Proton launch sanctions was a 
secret swap from the White house for the release of Pope. Then the article 
quotes real experts who thought this was nonsense. Hmmm.... 


EDMOND POPE POLITICAL FACTOR IN US LIFTING OF PROTON SATELLITE QUOTA 
SUGGESTED  --   MOSCOW SEGODNYA IN RUSSIAN 11 DEC 00 P 2
   [REPORT BY OLEG ODNOKOLENKO:  "EXCHANGING PROTONS FOR SPIES:  WASHINGTON 
HAS LIFTED THE RESTRICTION ON THE LAUNCHING OF US SATELLITES BY RUSSIAN 
LAUNCHERS"]
     THE US ADMINISTRATION DECISION'S TO LIFT THE QUOTAS RESTRICTING THE 
LAUNCH OF US SATELLITES BY RUSSIAN PROTON LAUNCHERS AS OF 1 JANUARY 2000 HAS 
BEEN RECEIVED WITH SATISFACTION IN MOSCOW.  A STATEMENT BY AN OFFICIAL 
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION FOREIGN MINISTRY SPEAKS OF THE 
EMERGENCE OF NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEEPENING MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL BILATERAL 
COOPERATION IN THE SPHERE OF THE PEACEFUL DEVELOPMENT OF SPACE, OF WHICH THE 
ALREADY OPERATING INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION IS THE MOST
GRAPHIC EXAMPLE.
     IN 1993, AFTER THE CREATION OF THE JOINT RUSSIAN-AMERICAN CORPORATION 
ILS [INTERNATIONAL LAUNCH SERVICES] (LOCKHEED MARTIN, THE KHRUNICHEV STATE 
CENTER, AND THE ENERGIYA ROCKET CORPORATION), THE US STATE DEPARTMENT 
"BLESSED" NO MORE THAN EIGHT PROTON LAUNCHES PER YEAR, WHICH WAS EXTREMELY 
FEW, GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF EFFECTIVENESS OF THE RUSSIAN LAUNCHERS AND THE 
FACT THAT THE UNITED STATES PRODUCES AROUND 80% OF ALL SATELLITES.  IN 1995, 
UNDER AN  AGREEMENT BETWEEN VIKTOR CHERNOMYRDIN AND AL GORE, THE QUOTA WAS 
INCREASED TO 20 LAUNCHES.  HOWEVER, ACCORDING TO SPECIALISTS OF THE RUSSIAN 
AEROSPACE AGENCY AND THEIR US COUNTERPARTS, THE COMMERCIAL DEMAND FOR PROTONS 
IS CONSIDERABLY GREATER -- MORE THAN 30 LAUNCHES PER YEAR.  WITH THIS VOLUME 
THE ILS JOINT VENTURE WOULD OBTAIN THE
OPPORTUNITY TO CONTROL HALF THE COMMERCIAL SPACE LAUNCHES AND
SUCCESSFULLY COMPETE AGAINST THE ARIANESPACE EUROPEAN CORPORATION.
      IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT THE US ADMINISTRATION'S DECISION TO LIFT THE 
QUOTA HAS COINCIDED WITH THE CONSULTATIONS OF RUSSIAN  FEDERATION FOREIGN 
MINISTRY AND US STATE DEPARTMENT EXPERTS ON THE PROBLEM OF THE EXPORT OF 
RUSSIAN ARMAMENTS TO IRAN AND WITH THE HANDING DOWN OF THE GUILTY VERDICT ON 
US CITIZEN EDMOND POPE, WHO HAS BEEN JUDGED CULPABLE OF ESPIONAGE.  THE WHITE 
HOUSE HAD INTIMATED TO MOSCOW THE DAY BEFORE THAT INSTEAD OF LIFTING  THE 
QUOTAS IT COULD BAN US COMPANIES ALTOGETHER FROM USING THE RUSSIAN  ROCKET 
LAUNCHERS.  GIVEN THAT THE QUOTAS HAVE NEVERTHELESS BEEN LIFTED, THE 
INEVITABLE CONCLUSION YOU DRAW IS THAT THE PROBLEM OF SUPPLIES OF RUSSIAN 
ARMAMENTS TO TEHRAN WILL NOT WORRY WASHINGTON SO MUCH NOW, AND THAT A PARDON 
IS IN THE OFFING FOR POPE.
      FOR THEIR PART, THE RUSSIAN SPACE AGENCY'S SPECIALISTS DO NOT RULE OUT 
THE INFLUENCE OF POLITICAL FACTORS ON THE DECISION TO LIFT THE QUOTAS FOR THE 
USE OF THE RUSSIAN LAUNCHERS, THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN PLENTY OF POLITICS -- 
BIG-LEAGUE, BLATANTLY EXPEDIENT POLITICS -- IN THIS QUESTION.  HOWEVER, THE 
MAIN ARGUMENTS, IN THEIR OPINION, WERE LEVEL-HEADED ECONOMIC CALCULATION AND 
THE LOBBYING EFFORTS OF THEIR AMERICAN PARTNERS.
    [DESCRIPTION OF SOURCE: MOSCOW SEGODNYA IN RUSSIAN -- DAILY
NEWSPAPER OWNED BY VLADIMIR GUSINSKIY'S MEDIA-MOST GROUP.]