[FPSPACE] Russian missile aid to Iran
Tue, 8 Aug 2000 18:13:24 EDT
Note the comment (below) by Viktor Mizin of the Russian government: "The
major threat is that Russian specialists will flee abroad because they are
unemployed at home. One possible solution is the development of a joint U.S.
Russian project that could employ these Russian specialists." The English of
which is, gove us more money, a lot more money, so our rocket scientists can
build missiles for Russia instead of for Iran. Uh... Wasn't that the idea of
ISS, that the money we've poured over there, NASA and commercial money to the
tune of almost a billion dollars a year, was supposed to already be DOING
that? Only a billion dollars -- obviously, according to the Russians, that's
just NOT ENOUGH. Tell me again how having the Russians aboard ISS was going
to prevent "unemployed rocket experts" from doing what they clearly have
never stopped doing and have no intention of ever stopping doing...
Date: Mon, 07 Aug 2000
From: Justin Anderson <firstname.lastname@example.org>
Subject: Proliferation Brief 22: Russia's Missile Assistance to Iran
The latest brief from the Carnegie Non-Proliferation Project.
Vol. III - No. 22 August 7, 2000
Russia's Missile Assistance to Iran
On July 15, Iran successfully tested its medium range "Shahab-3" missile. The
first test missile in 1998 exploded after launch. Russia is suspected of
aiding the Iranian program. The following exchange between American, Israeli
and Russian experts, dated January 1999, is excerpted from a chapter in the
new book Repairing the Regime, edited by Joseph Cirincione.
To view the table of contents and complete chapter, please visit
The Honorable Robert Gallucci is the Dean of Georgetown's School of Foreign
Service and the U.S. State Department's special envoy for ballistic missile
and weapons of mass destruction proliferation. These are his personal views.
"In 1997, the issue of Russian entitiesí assistance to Iran in the area of
ballistic missiles found itself prominently featured on the agenda of the
"Through this process, the United States made demarches to Russia about
activities that the U.S. officials observed, and shared information and
intelligence about interactions between Russian entities and the Iranian
ballistic missile program. For one full year, from the summer of 1997
through the summer of 1998, the process achieved steady progress . . . "
"Later in 1998, however, this progress came to a halt, as measured by both
input and output. In terms of input, the export groups and technology groups
that were supposed to meet following the Moscow summit in September 1998,
really have not met effectively. The investigation of those nine entities
that was launched with such optimism in July 1998 has not produced any real
results, such as a conclusion that anyone acted inappropriately or illegally;
there has been no prosecution. On the output side, in the summer of 1998,
Iran tested its so-called Shahab-3, a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM).
Many of the problem cases that the United States had identified as much as a
year ago continued, while some new cases of
assistance were identified. "
"What is the significance of Russian-entity assistance in the Iranian case? .
. . Russian assistance was extremely important in shortening the amount of
time in which the Iranians would be able to develop, manufacture, and deploy
their own MRBMs, and do so presumably with some improvement in quality.
Continued Russian assistance will allow not only for the rapid deployment of
the Shahab-3 but also for the Iranians to move onto intermediate-range and
intercontinental ballistic missiles."
The Honorable Robbie Sabel is the Deputy Director General, Department of Arms
Control and Disarmament at Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
"For the Shahab-3 to enter Iran's arsenal, the missile has to be produced in
usable quantities. Iran is not yet in a position to do so. The missile has
to be completely reliable. Iran has not yet developed it to this stage. The
missile will, presumably, be adapted to carry nonconventional warheads. This
has not yet been done, and requires sophisticated technology. All these
additional refinements require in the foreseeable future, outside help. That
help can only come from Russian companies and entities.
"At present, Russian companies and entities continue to provide assistance to
the Iranian missile development project and to the development of an Iranian
nuclear infrastructure. The U.S. government has devoted considerable efforts
in trying to persuade the Russian government to prevent such proliferation.
Russian colleagues acknowledge their awareness that it is not in Russia's
interest to see Iran with long-range missiles equipped with nonconventional
warheads. Yet, is Russia doing everything in
its power to prevent such leakage of technology, know-how and material?
"The Russian Government is not making such an all-out effort. There may in
fact be elements in Russia that believe there is economic and even strategic
gain in such deadly trade. Despite the acknowledged internal problems of the
Russian government, proliferation could be prevented if the will existed. If
the Russian government reached the conclusion that such proliferation is a
dire threat to Russia, the leakage would be prevented. Instead, there is an
opposite trend, and the much-publicized trip of Russian minister Adamov to
Tehran appears to be flaunting nuclear ties rather than limiting them."
Dr. Viktor Mizin heads the office for U.N. Peacekeeping and Sanctions at the
Russian Federation's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
"It is interesting that the Russian official reaction moved from official
denial from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Mr. Chernomyrdin, to
reluctant recognition, and then to reports of the successful apprehension of
some Iranian spies that contacted Russian missile manufacturers.
"The problem is, how does one stop this process? The logical answer is to
improve existing export controls. Unfortunately, as the recent revelations
show, export controls in Russia are not operational. The problem is
enforcement, enforcement, and enforcement.
"So the emphasis should be placed on providing more competent personnel on
export control services, equipping them with state-of-the-art technology,
ensuring the real time exchange of data and information from Moscow to custom
checkpoints. Also, another problem is the bureaucratic wrangling. Russia
needs a governing body to oversee export controls.
"Finally, a significant part of the proliferation problem is the people.
The major threat is that Russian specialists will flee abroad because they
are unemployed at home. One possible solution is the development of a joint
U.S. Russian project that could employ these Russian specialists. For
example, many years ago President Yeltsin proposed that the United States and
Russia developed what was termed a 'Global System of Protection,' that is, an
antiballistic missile or another sort of space tracking system. Ö Another
project that was discussed was the employment of Russian missile scientists
in joint commercial efforts, similar to efforts in the nuclear sphere.
American companies could employ the best and brightest Russian missile
engineers and foremen, thus preventing them from
fleeing to proliferant countries."
To order Repairing the Regime, call 1-800-634-7064 or visit
http://www.routledge-ny.com The book is also available in bookstores and at
http://www.barnesandnoble.com, and at http://www.amazon.com
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR
1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
ISRAEL -- 16 JULY RADIO, PRESS REPORT ON
REACTIONS TO IRAN SHAHAB-3 MISSILE TEST
[FBIS REPORT] THE ISRAELI ELECTRONIC MEDIA AND PRESS ON 16
JULY REACT EXTENSIVELY TO IRAN'S TEST LAUNCHING OF ITS SHAHAB-3
BALLISTIC MISSILE, IN A SERIES OF REPORTS, ANALYSES, AND
JERUSALEM THE VOICE OF ISRAEL IN ENGLISH AT 0400 GMT REPORTS
THAT "SENIOR ISRAELI OFFICIALS SAY THAT ISRAEL WAS NOT SURPRISED BY
THE LAUNCH OF THE IRANIAN MISSILE, SINCE THE DEFENSE ESTABLISHMENT
HAS BEEN CLOSELY FOLLOWING ITS DEVELOPMENT. THEY ADDED THAT
ISRAEL HAS BEEN DEVELOPING FOR SOME TIME, A RESPONSE TO THE
"A SENIOR IDF OFFICER ESTIMATED THAT IRAN WOULD OBTAIN NUCLEAR
CAPABILITY IN FIVE YEARS TIME. HE SAID THE IRANIANS ARE WORKING
ON EXTENDING THE RANGE OF THE SHAHAB-3 TO 2,000 KM, AND ITS ABILITY
TO CARRY NONCONVENTIONAL WARHEADS.
"THE SENIOR IDF OFFICER ALSO ACCUSED RUSSIA AND NORTH KOREA OF
ASSISTING IRAN IN ITS MISSILE PROGRAM."
THE VOICE OF ISRAEL IN HEBREW AT 0600 GMT REPORTS THAT "DEFENSE
MINISTRY DIRECTOR GENERAL AMOS YARON SAID THAT IRAN HAS THE
CAPABILITY TO LAUNCH LONG-RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILES; HOWEVER, THERE
IS A GREAT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HAVING SUCH A CAPABILITY AND HAVING
ANY INTENTION TO ACTUALLY MAKE USE OF IT.
"ISRAEL, YARON SAID, HAS DEVELOPED DEFENSE SYSTEMS SUCH AS THE
ARROW AND OTHERS, THAT CAN PROVIDE A RELATIVELY GOOD RESPONSE.
YARON DENIED REPORTS THAT ISRAEL HAS TESTED LONG-RANGE CRUISE
MISSILES IN SRI LANKA AND DISMISSED THEM AS BASELESS.
"DEPUTY DEFENSE MINISTER EFRAYIM SNE SAID THAT IN BUILDING UP
ITS MILITARY POWER, IRAN DOES NOT HAVE ONLY ISRAEL IN MIND. IRAN
WANTS TO BECOME A REGIONAL SUPERPOWER, SNE SAID, AND ALSO CONSIDERS
ITSELF THE DEFENDER OF MUSLIMS WORLDWIDE. THE MISSILES THAT IRAN
HAS SUPPLIED TO HIZBALLAH, SNE SAID, ARE NO LESS DANGEROUS THAN THE
SHAHAB-3, AND ISRAEL MUST CAREFULLY FOLLOW IRAN'S INTENTIONS IN THE
TERRORISM SPHERE. SNE ASSERTED THAT ISRAEL HAS MANAGED TO FOIL
SOME VERY DANGEROUS INITIATIVES IN THIS FIELD.
"YARON AND SNE WERE SPEAKING TO THE VOICE OF ISRAEL."
LIBERAL, INDEPENDENT, INTELLECTUAL TEL AVIV HA'ARETZ
(WWW-INTERNET) IN ENGLISH, IN A REPORT BY MILITARY CORRESPONDENT
AMOS HA'REL WRITES THAT: "IRAN YESTERDAY TEST-LAUNCHED A SHAHAB-3
BALLISTIC MISSILE AND DECLARED IT A SUCCESS. THE 1300-KM RANGE
MISSILE COULD REACH TARGETS ACROSS ISRAEL.
"THIS SECOND TEST OF THE MISSILE IS VIEWED WITH GRAVE CONCERN
AT THE DEFENSE MINISTRY, BECAUSE IT INDICATES THAT IRAN HAS THE
OPERATIONAL ABILITY TO STRIKE ISRAEL"
LATER ON THE REPORT ADDS: "A SENIOR IDF SOURCE SAID YESTERDAY
THAT THE SUCCESSFUL LAUNCH SUGGESTS OPERATIONAL CAPABILITY. 'IT
REFLECTS AN IRANIAN AMBITION TO BE ABLE TO COVER ISRAEL AND OTHER
COUNTRIES IN THAT RANGE,' THE SOURCE SAID.
"HE SAID IRAN NOW HAS INITIAL OPERATIONAL ABILITY, IT IS STILL
AT THE LEVEL OF A FEW MISSILES RATHER THAN DOZENS OF ORGANIZED
"A RECENT STATEMENT BY THE HEAD OF THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD'S
AIR FORCES, THE BODY IN CHARGE OF DEVELOPING THE MISSILES, SAID
IRAN CURRENTLY HAS 'FIVE INITIAL BALLISTIC MISSILE UNITS.'
"RESPONDING TO THE TEST-FIRING OF THE SHAHAB-3, PRIME MINISTER
EHUD BARAQ SAID AT CAMP DAVID THAT ISRAEL IS RELYING ON ITS OWN
STRONG DEFENSE FORCES AND ON ACHIEVING PEACE AGREEMENTS THAT
ULTIMATELY OFFER THE ONLY ANSWER TO MISSILE THREATS.
"AT THIS STAGE, IRAN DOES NOT HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO ARM THE
MISSILES WITH NON-CONVENTIONAL WARHEADS, SUCH AS CHEMICAL OR
"HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A FUTURE POSSIBILITY.
"ISRAELI ANALYSTS BELIEVE THE MISSILE WILL BE FULLY OPERATIONAL
IN TWO YEARS BUT IN ANY EMERGENCY SMALL NUMBERS COULD BE LAUNCHED.
A SENIOR ISRAELI SOURCE SAID IRAN'S BALLISTIC MISSILE EFFORTS ARE
NOT JUST AIMED AT ISRAEL BUT AT OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE REGION.
"IRAN IS ALSO CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THE SHAHAB-4 WHICH HAS AN
ESTIMATED RANGE OF 2,000 KMS. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE USED AS A LAUNCH
VEHICLE FOR SATELLITES.
"ISRAELI SOURCES BELIEVE THAT IRAN WILL REACH NUCLEAR
CAPABILITY NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THIS DECADE, AND THE SHAHAB-3 IS NOT
CONSIDERED AN IMMEDIATE THREAT."
INDEPENDENT, SECOND-LARGEST CIRCULATION TEL AVIV MA'ARIV IN
HEBREW INCLUDES A PAGE 2 REPORT BY AMI ETTINGER, ADDING:
"ACCORDING TO ISRAELI ASSESSMENTS, THE CANCELLATION OF THE DEAL FOR
SUPPLYING (PHALCON) SURVEILLANCE PLANES TO CHINA WILL ACCELERATE
THE ARRIVAL OF CHINESE EXPERTS IN IRAN IN ORDER TO HELP TEHRAN
FURTHER IMPROVE FUTURE MODELS OF THE SHAHAB-3 MISSILE, WHICH MOST
PROBABLY WILL BE BASED ON THE CHINESE M-9 MISSILE."
"ACCORDING TO THE ISRAELI ASSESSMENT, THE IRANIANS WILL EXTEND
THE RANGE OF THE CHINESE MISSILE, JUST AS THEY DID WITH THEIR OWN
WRITING ON PAGE 3 OF THE SAME MA'ARIV ISSUE, AMI ETTINGER AND
YO'AV LIMOR NOTE "A DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE SECURITY COMMUNITY
REGARDING THE GRAVITY OF THE 'IRANIAN THREAT.' MAJOR GENERAL DAN
HALUTZ, THE ISRAEL AIR FORCE COMMANDER, SAID TWO WEEKS AGO AT A
PRESS CONFERENCE: 'I DO NOT THINK ISRAEL IS IRAN'S NUMBER-ONE
TARGET, AND I DON'T THINK THAT THINGS SHOULD BE PRESENTED IN THIS
WAY. I DON'T THINK THAT ISRAEL SHOULD PLACE IRAN AT THE TOP OF
ITS LIST OF ENEMIES. I WOULD LIKE TO QUOTE US SECRETARY GENERAL
KOFI ANNAN WHO SAID THAT IF THE SIDES REACH A PEACE AGREEMENT HERE,
THEN IRAN WILL ALSO CONSIDER ESTABLISHING PEACE WITH ISRAEL.' A
FEW YEARS AGO, PRIME MINISTER EHUD BARAQ ASSESSED THAT ISRAEL DOES
NOT TOP THE LIST OF IRAN'S DESIGNATED TARGETS FOR ATTACK."
"A SENIOR MILITARY SOURCE, ON THE OTHER HAND, YESTERDAY
CATEGORICALLY REJECTED THE CLAIMS THAT IRAN IS NOT ISRAEL'S
ENEMY. 'IRAN VIEWS ISRAEL AS AN ENEMY AND THAT'S WHAT IS
IMPORTANT. THIS IS THE ONLY REGIME THAT CALLS FOR THE ELIMINATION
OF ISRAEL, THAT TRIES TO EMPLOY TERRORISM AGAINST IT, AND THAT IS
DEVELOPING A LONG-RANGE STRATEGIC ARM. AS FAR AS ISRAEL IS
CONCERNED, IRAN IS DEFINITELY A STRATEGIC THREAT.'"
INDEPENDENT, CENTRIST, LARGEST CIRCULATION TEL AVIV YEDI'OT
AHARONOT CARRIES A PAGE 2 "NEWS ANALYSIS" BY ALEX FISHMAN ENTITLED
"A REAL CAUSE FOR CONCERN." FISHMAN NOTES THAT "ALL THE
INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO DATE TO THWART THE IRANIAN PROJECT, MAINLY
THROUGH PRESSURE ON RUSSIA TO END ITS ASSISTANCE TO IRAN, HAVE
FAILED. RIGHT NOW, THERE IS PROBABLY NO ELEMENT CAPABLE OF
PREVENTING IRAN FROM PURSUING ITS DEVELOPMENTS BOTH IN THE FIELD OF
GROUND-TO-GROUND MISSILES AND THE NUCLEAR SPHERES.
"OFFICIALS IN ISRAEL WERE NOT OVERLY-IMPRESSED BY THE REPORTS
ON TEHRAN RADIO FOLLOWING THE MISSILE LAUNCHING. IN THESE
REPORTS, AN IRANIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY SOURCE DECLARED THAT THE
SHAHAB-3 DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO ANY COUNTRY AND THAT IT IS
DESIGNATED TO SERVE AS 'A DEFENSIVE AND DETERRENT' MEANS. THE
REAL PROBLEM IS WHICH PEOPLE HAVE THEIR FINGERS ON THE TRIGGER OF
THOSE WEAPON SYSTEMS IN IRAN, THE ONLY STATE IN THE WORLD THAT
PUBLICLY DECLARES THAT ISRAEL IS A TARGET FOR ELIMINATION. AS
LONG AS THE IRANIAN REGIME ADHERES TO THIS POLICY, ISRAEL HAS REAL
CAUSE FOR CONCERN.
"THE MILITARY RESPONSE THAT ISRAEL IS BUILDING VIS-A-VIS THE
POTENTIAL IRANIAN THREAT IS CONCENTRATING ON A LONG-RANGE
AIRBORNE ARM AND ON THE ARROW MISSILE. THIS RESPONSE BASICALLY
REFLECTS DETERRENCE AND PUNITIVE CAPABILITIES ONLY. THE REAL
RESPONSE TO THE IRANIAN CAPABILITY SHOULD COME IN THE SHAPE OF
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION ON THE POLITICAL LEVEL."
JERUSALEM THE VOICE OF ISRAEL IN HEBREW AT 0900 GMT CARRIES A
REACTION BY CHIEF OF STAFF SHA'UL MUFAZ, WHO SAID: "THE IRANIANS
ARE MAKING AN EFFORT NOT ONLY TO PRODUCE MISSILES BUT ALSO TO
ACHIEVE NONCONVENTIONAL CAPABILITIES. THIS COMBINATION
CONSTITUTES A THREAT TO ISRAEL AND TO ALL THE COUNTRIES WITHIN A
1,200-KM RADIUS OF TEHRAN. ISRAEL'S RESPONSE TO THIS THREAT LIES
IN DETERRENCE, THE CHIEF OF STAFF SAID, NOTING THAT THERE IS NO
REASON TO BE OVERLY ANXIOUS BUT MERELY TO MONITOR THE MISSILE'S
DEVELOPMENT IN TEHRAN."
ISRAELI PUNDIT -- SHAHAB-3 TEST DURING CAMP DAVID SHOWS
REGIONAL THREATS EXIST
TEL AVIV HA'ARETZ (INTERNET VERSION-WWW) IN ENGLISH 16 JUL 00
["ANALYSIS" BY ZE'EV SCHIFF: "THE SHIHAB 3 THREAT"]
[FBIS TRANSCRIBED TEXT] TEHRAN RECENTLY CLAIMED IT HAS FIVE
UNITS OF SHIHAB 3 BALLISTIC MISSILES CAPABLE OF REACHING ISRAEL.
IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE MISSILE, SUCCESSFULLY TESTED YESTERDAY,
IS READY TO BE INCORPORATED INTO OPERATIONAL BATTERIES -- BUT THAT
IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME.
THE WARHEAD ON THE SHIHAB 3 IS CONVENTIONAL BUT ALL WESTERN
INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES, INCLUDING OURS, BELIEVE IRAN IS AIMING TO
DEVELOP NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND ARM ITS BALLISTIC MISSILES WITH NUCLEAR
ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE CAN CONGRATULATE ITSELF ON ITS ANALYSIS OF
THE IRANIAN BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM SO FAR. IN 1996, ISRAELI
ANALYSTS WARNED THAT BY THE END OF THAT YEAR IRAN WOULD HAVE A
BALLISTIC MISSILE THAT WOULD BRING ISRAEL WITHIN RANGE, AND THAT
FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS WERE PENDING.
THE PREDICTION MISSED ITS TARGET BY SIX MONTHS.
THIS IS THE THIRD TEST-FIRING OF A SHIHAB 3. THE PREVIOUS TEST
IN 1998 WAS DISCOVERED ONLY AFTER IT FAILED. ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE
THEN CALCULATED THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MISSILE WOULD TAKE SIX
MONTHS LONGER BECAUSE OF THE FAILURE.
THE SHIHAB 3 TRIAL DURING THE CAMP DAVID SUMMIT, WHEN MAJOR
EFFORTS TO END THE CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST ARE UNDERWAY, SHOWS
THAT REGIONAL THREATS HAVE NOT VANISHED -- AND MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
MORE GRAVE IF THE PEACE PROCESS WITH THE PALESTINIANS FAILS.
YESTERDAY'S TEST IS NOT DIRECTLY LINKED TO CAMP DAVID. THE
PREVIOUS TEST WAS EXACTLY WHEN U.S. VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE WENT TO
MOSCOW TO DISCUSS RUSSIAN ASSISTANCE TO IRAN IN MISSILE TECHNOLOGY
IT IS CLEAR IRAN WOULD HAVE FOUND IT DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP
SHIHAB 3 WITHOUT THE MASSIVE RUSSIAN ASSISTANCE THAT BOLSTERED
IRAN'S PREVIOUSLY ACQUIRED NORTH KOREAN TECHNOLOGY. CHINA WAS ALSO
INVOLVED IN HELPING IRAN'S BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM AND SOLD IT
THE EQUIPMENT TO RUN FIELD TESTS.
FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S TEST, IRAN ANNOUNCED THE SUCCESS OF THE
LAUNCH AND SAID THE MISSILE IS NOT INTENDED TO BE A THREAT TO
ANYONE. NEITHER THE UNITED STATES NOR ISRAEL TAKES THIS REASSURING
ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE ASSESSES BOTH THE OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES
OF IRAN, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY POLITICAL WILLINGNESS TO USE
SHIHAB 3 AS A THREAT TO THIS COUNTRY. THE BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM
IS SUPPORTED BY PRESIDENT KHATAMI AND IRANIAN FACTIONS WHO ARE
CONSIDERED TO BE PRAGMATIC.
BUT ISRAEL'S POLITICAL AND MILITARY LEADERSHIP MUST APPROACH
THE ISSUE IN ITS TOTALITY -- AND CONCLUDE HOW THE COUNTRY IS TO
RESPOND TO THE NEW SITUATION, ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS KNOWN THAT
IRAN IS EAGER TO ACQUIRE NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
IT IS KNOWN THAT IRAN DEPLOYED FAJER ROCKETS IN LEBANON WITH A
RANGE TO REACH HAIFA BAY. AT FIRST THESE ROCKETS WERE UNDER IRANIAN
CONTROL BUT LATELY THEY HAVE PASSED INTO THE HANDS OF HIZBALLAH.
[DESCRIPTION OF SOURCE: TEL AVIV HA'ARETZ (INTERNET VERSION-WWW) IN
ENGLISH -- INDEPENDENT, LIBERAL, INTELLECTUAL; ROOT URL ON FILING