[FPSPACE] A Russian on STS-100 ...

[David Fowler]

Talked to an STS-100 crewmember today.... He doesn't even know who the cosmonaut will be yet. He said he'd heard a number of bogus rumors about the identity....none of which have panned out.

So, I guess if they have to wait to find out who it is, we will too.

Dave



David C. Fowler
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Iowa State University
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>>> "C. van den Berg" <kkees@worldonline.nl> 07/30/00 06:09PM >>>
A Look at a Potential Russian Crewmember...

Today I heard from a very reliable source (sorry no name) that a Russian (sorry again no name) will fly on STS-100/Endeavour in April 2001. We may be just days (?) away from an announcement of this, so I thought this would be an opportune time to share my thoughts. Who is the prospective cosmonaut for the STS-100 slot? A rookie? No I don't think so! Yes, two times a rookie flew on STS (Sharipov on STS-89 and Tokarev on STS-96), however both men trained for a very, very long time. Sharipov received his cosmonaut qualification in March 1992 and flew in Jan 1998 (after almost 6 years!); Tokarev received his cosmonaut qualification in April 1991 and flew in May 1999 (after more than 8 years!). Given the fact that the latest class of cosmonauts received their qualification in Dec. 1999, I doubt that one of them will fly in April 2001. No, my guess is that a highly qualified cosmonaut will fly on STS-100. 

If we look at the remaining "cosmonaut pool", we learn:

Afanasyev --  ISS taxi crew #1
Avdeyev -- no assignment yet ! "available"
Baturin -- EO-30 (mir); BU EO-29 (mir)
Budarin -- was ISS crew 0, now "available"
Dezhurov --  ISS crew #3 
Gidzenko --  ISS crew #1
Kaleri -- just returned from EO-28, "available"
Kuzhelnaya -- ISS taxi crew #1
Kondakova --  ISS crew #5
Korzun --  BU ISS crew 0; ISS crew #5 
Krikalyov --  ISS crew #1
Malenchenko -- STS-106; ISS crew #6
Morukov -- STS-106, soon "available" ?
Musabayev -- EO-30 (mir); BU EO-29 (mir)
Onufrienko -- ISS crew #4
Padalka -- was ISS crew 0, now "available"
Poleshchuk -- "available"
Revin -- BU ISS taxi crew #1
Sharipov -- EO-29 (mir)
Tokarev -- BU ISS taxi crew #1
Treshchov -- BU ISS crew 0; ISS crew #7 (?) according to Novosti Kosmonavtiki No. 5, 2000
Tyurin -- ISS crew #3
Usachov -- ISS crew #2
Vinogradov -- EO-29 (mir)
Zalyotin -- just returned from EO-28; "available" 

ISS Taxi crew #2 will fly in 2002 (I think that it will be no surprise that the BU's for Taxi crew #1 will be named; Tokarev and Revin). But who will backup Taxi crew #2? And who will backup EO-30 (mir)? My guess is that the team Padalka and Budarin (the old ISS "zero" crew) will stay together and they fit in in one of those slots. Ehhh? Kaleri and Zalyotin have flown recently and that brings us to the "short list" of "most available cosmonauts", only two!

Avdeyev
Poleshchuk

Predicting a cosmonaut is maybe "silly work". Perhaps this is the byproduct of the system that selects the cosmonauts, but here's my pick: AVDEYEV. Yes, Poleshchuk was in training for a shuttle mission, but missed STS-71(if I recall correct ) in 1995, a long time ago. Why Avdeyev? Why not Avdeyev? Any other ideas? Please feel free to share your insights in this forum. Mark my words: AVDEYEV WILL FLY ON STS-100 IN APRIL 2001.


Kees van den Berg
Gemini Productions