By Brian Whitmore
SPECIAL TO THE ST PETERSBURG TIMES
Vladimir Yakovlev's victory in St Petersburg's gubernatorial election could be construed as bad news for Boris Yeltsin, an important lesson for the president or an insignificant sideshow depending upon whom you believe.
Anatoly Sobchak, the defeated mayor, had maintained that his race was closely related to Yeltsin's battle for the Russian presidency against Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov.
This interpretation has been questioned by several analysts, including NTV's political commentator Yevgeny Kiselyev, who said on Sunday's news analysis program "Itogi" that "to compare an election between Sobchak and Vladimir Yakovlev to that between Yeltsin and Zyuganov is simply strange."
Alexei Levinson, the head of qualitative research at VTsIOM, the Russian Center for Public Opinion and Market Research, said the national meaning of St Petersburg's election varies among different sections of the public.
"For the less sophisticated electorate, Sobchak can be equated with Yeltsin and Sobchak's defeat can be read as a defeat for the president," Levinson said.
However, he added, "For the more informed electorate, Sobchak's defeat simply represents the victory of certain Moscow politicians who prefer Yakovlev to the current mayor." He declined to elaborate on Moscow's alleged role.
Alexander Yerofiyev, a researcher at Gallup St Petersburg, said the ultimate national effect depends on who is able to put their spin on events.
"The Communists will probably try to create the myth that the defeat of Sobchak signals a defeat for Yeltsin," he said. "If they can perpetuate this myth then the results will hurt Yeltsin."
Yerofiyev added, however, that this will be a difficult interpretation to sell.
"It is clear to most informed people that Yakovlev is not a Communist, he is a pragmatist, a manager," he said.
Nikolai Petrov of the Moscow Center for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace sees different factors at work in the local and national polls.
"The electorate is voting for pragmatic reasons in one case [St Petersburg] and ideological reasons in the other case [nationally]," he said. "Both Sobchak and Yakovlev are supporters of Yeltsin. It is impossible to say that there is a victory for the Communists in St Petersburg." The Communist candidate, Yury Sevenard, won only 10 percent of the vote in the first round.
Yakovlev and his coalition partners are attempting to present this election as an example to democrats at the federal level, particularly President Boris Yeltsin and Yabloko leader Grigory Yavlinsky.
"If they do at the federal level what we did in St Petersburg, there will be civil accord," Yakovlev said Monday at a press conference.
Alexander Belyayev, one of Yakovlev's coalition partners, said, "A coalition that brings together the centrist and democratic forces in our city can only bring stability. This should serve as an example for Boris Nikolaevich [Yeltsin] and Yavlinsky."
Levinson, however, saw another factor at play. "Sobchak's defeat should cause some alarm bells for the president," he said. "The lesson for Yeltsin and Yavlinsky is the negative example of what happened to Sobchak. I hope that they are listening."
Yerofiyev, evaluating Yakovlev's victory, said Friday night's debate played a significant role.
Sobchak lost the pedestal of incumbency and fell, in the public eye, to Yakovlev's level, because of his performance in the debate, Yerofiyev said.
The 90-minute candidate face-off swerved into mud-slinging soon after the candidates made their opening remarks. At one point, representatives of the election commission broke in to tell the candidates to "focus on concrete issues and programs."
"In the debates, Sobchak had a big opportunity to turn the undecided vote in his favor," he said. "Instead, he hurt himself. He did not look like somebody who understood what is going on in the city and his impolite attacks on Yakovlev offended many people."
Sobchak's attempts at "red baiting," including a reference to an issue of the pro-Communist paper Narodnaya Pravda (People's Truth) that contained a positive article about Yakovlev, backfired.
Yakovlev scored points by responding, "We don't need to divide our city into reds and whites, we need civic understanding and accord."
The mayor also probably offended the city's streetsweepers when he said they were overpaid.
Yerofiyev said that Yakovlev was very well prepared for the debates and the campaign as a whole. "It is clear that Yakovlev's handlers did a brilliant job," he added. "He was well prepared for the election. His team turned a virtually unknown person into a governor."
Leonid Kesselman of the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Sociology also said that Sobchak's performance in the debate hurt him.
"Sobchak worked against himself in Friday's debate," Kesselman said.
Other factors, however, were also at work according to Kesselman.
"The low turnout also worked against Sobchak," he added. "Only about 44 percent of the electorate voted. Most of those that did not were Sobchak voters while Yakovlev's voters turned out en masse to vote against Sobchak."
Kesselman also cited an underlying reason for Sobchak's defeat that has been at work for months. This is the harm he has done to his own democratic image by his recent behavior.
"St Petersburg has a generally democratic electorate," he said. "Sobchak needed to protect his image as a democrat and he did not do this."
Kesselman cited Sobchak's acquiescence in advancing the election date, allegations that he attempted to block the campaign of former Federation Council deputy Yury Boldyrev and accusations of pro-Sobchak media bias as factors harming the incumbent's image.
Levinson said there could also be negative portents for Yeltsin. "The idea that Sobchak has lost some of his democratic image can be projected on Yeltsin as well and hurt the president not only in St Petersburg but in the whole country," he said.