ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENTS AND MIGRATION IN EAST-CENTRAL EUROPE: THE CASE OF POLAND

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NATO ECONOMIC Colloqium, 
30 June, 1 and 2 July 1993, 
Brussels

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN COOPERATION PARTNER COUNTRIES
FROM A SECTORAL PERSPECTIVE

EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS
PARTENAIRES DE LA COOPERATION DU POINT DE VUE SECTORIEL

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PANEL II

Economic Aspects of Demographic
Developments, Ethnic Tensions, Migration

Chair: Guillaume Parmentier, Assistant Director,
       NATO Office of Information and Press

Panelists: Lajos Hethy
           Piotr Korcelli
           Oleg Shamshur
           Jonas Widgren
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ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENTS AND MIGRATION
IN EAST-CENTRAL EUROPE: THE CASE OF POLAND

Piotr Korcelli

I. Demographic Trends and Projections

Poland has experienced considerable variations in the
rates of population growth during the last decades. The
decline in birth rates during the 1960s, after the
baby-boom of the 1950s, was followed, unlike in most other
countries in Europe, by another period of high natural
increase during the 1970s and the early 1980s. This,
rather unexpected, peak in birth rates has been followed
by their quite dramatic fall since 1984. The number of
live births registered in 1992 was 516 thousand - the
smallest figure since 1946. As the level of mortality
remained high (10.6 per 1,000 population), the natural
increase amounted to just 112 thousand, or 3.6 per 1,000
in 1992.

The decrease in birth rates during recent years is partly
explained by the evolution of the population age
composition, but first of all, by a decline of fertility.
Since 1989 the Net Reproduction Rate for the total
population of Poland has been less than 1.0 (0.971 in
1991). This indicates a long-term population decline. In
the case of the urban population, which accounts for 62%
of the total, the NNR values have fallen to 0.833 in
1992.According to the recent projection by the Central
Statistical Office (J. Jozwiak, 1993), the total
population of Poland will reach 39.5 million in the year
2000, which implies a mean annual growth of 0.3%, as
compared to 0.6% in the 1980s. Such a rate of increase
actually requires that birth rates during the rest
of the 1990s be higher, and outmigration rates be lower,
than those observed in 1991-1992.

Therefore, one may conclude, Poland is still characterized
by demographic growth in the sense of a continuing, albeit
rapidly diminishing excess of births over deaths. This
growth seems barely sufficient to offset the negative
migration balance, as observed in recent years. Although
another rise in the level of births is now quite
conceivable, if it occurs it is likely to be a short-term
development. In the context of employment and migration
policies, however, the most important questions are those
that refer to the population distribution by age.
Currently, the population in the working age group (which
is defined in Polish labour statistics as 18-59 for
females and 18-64 for males) is composed of those born
between 1928 and 1974. This category includes both the
very small cohorts born during World War II, and the very
large, baby-boom generation of the 1950s. Over the next
few years, the increasingly large cohorts of the late
1970s will be moving into the working age group. By the
year 2005 the two waves reflecting high population growth
in the 1950s, and in the late 1970s-early 1980s, will be
contained in this category (see Figure 1).

Such a situation, i.e. a high proportion of the total
population found in the working age group, described in
terms of a low population dependency rate (for a detailed
discussion and analysis, see: A. Vossen, 1992), is very
favourable at a time of economic expansion and a high
demand for manpower. A reverse situation, even though it
puts a greater pressure on public expenditures, is
generally preferred during periods of economic recession
and big unemployment. Both of these aspects are of
critical importance in Poland today.

Trends for the near future, however, are firmly
established, as long as the existing population cohorts
are dealt with. Thus, the population in the working age
group will increase by 1.5 million by the year 2000 (to
23.5 million), and by another 0.8 million in the first
decade of the next century. After the year 2010 this
population category will begin to contract, both in
relative and in absolute terms.

II. Internal and International Migration


The propensity to migrate evolves with the population age
(see: A. Rogers and L. Castro, 1981). For the age category
of 20-29 years the probability to move is approximately
three times higher than the corresponding mean value for
the total population. This mobility peak is easily
explained, as it corresponds to the age of entrance into
the labour market, into tertiary education, or into
military service. In Poland, the size of this population
age category will increase by 1.2 million (23%) by the
year 2000, and by 1.5 million (30%) by 2005, when compared
with the status in 1991.

When the motivation to move is predominantly of an
economic character, in the case of both internal and
international migration, one can speak of a certain
complementarity between the two types of movement (see: P.
Korcelli, 1992, 1993). Namely, the propensity to emigrate
from a given country may be inversely related to the
absorptive capacity of its local and regional labour
markets.

Poland has experienced a major emigration wave, with a
peak in 1988-1989, after the full liberalization of
passport policies in 1988. It is estimated that a total of
about one million people emigrated during the 1980s,
mainly to Germany (some 60%), the United States (some
15-20%) and Canada. Although political factors were
usually quoted as the main reason to emigrate, some
authors (for example Z. Kurcz, 1993) strongly argue that
the mainstream movement was economic in nature. Those who
left Poland during that period were disproportionately
drawn from the educated, middle-income groups. In fact,
the emigration wave of the 1980s coincided with the
terminal phase of the crisis of the socialist economy.
Investments, industrial employment (the traditionally
well-paying occupations), and, first of all, housing
construction were following a downward trend. So were
internal migration rates. The annual number of moves went
down from 964 thousand in 1978 to 597 thousand in 1989.

Since 1990 emigration from Poland has gone down,
although the population outflow abroad, as such, has
continued. Poles have changed their attitudes towards
migration. Surveys conducted among secondary school
students indicate that no more than 4-7% of them would
consider definite emigration from Poland (in the mid-1980s
the corresponding fraction was about 40%). Still, a
sizeableproportion would desire to work abroad for 2-3
years. Introduction of visa-free movement with countries
of the Schengen group, in 1991, and with most of the other
countries of Western Europe, has not resulted in an
increase of emigration from Poland, although it has
facilitated the movement of those who seek a job abroad
for a short, or a long, period of time. Their numbers are
difficult to estimate. The total number of border
crossings to Germany by Polish citizens actually went down
from 9.7 to 9.2 million, and their share among all
travellers decreased from 45-29% between 1990 and 1991 (T.
Komornicki, 1992).

Polish migrant workers who have arrived in Western Europe
in recent years tend to originate mainly from small towns
and rural areas of southern and eastern Poland, and they
are typically semi-skilled. After a year or two they often
start small businesses, as reported, for example for the
Mediterranean countries. Also the traditional Polish
communities in the United States have been growing again
on account of both irregular and regular migration.

A new phenomenon is immigration to Poland which takes
various forms and involves various national groups. First
of all, it is estimated that out of those who departed
(mostly to Germany) during the 1980s, about 300 thousand
have returned to Poland over the last three years (CSCE,
1993). In addition, 20 thousand foreign citizens (a
majority of them from countries formerly of the Soviet
Union) have been granted permanent resident status in
Poland. Another 300 thousand, approximately, stay (and
usually work) in Poland, while their legal status remains
irregular. They represent a very small population when
compared with the number of short-term visitors (some 7.4
million in 1992) from countries of the Former Soviet
Union.

III. Future Prospects

The role of demographic factors will be to add to, rather
than to relieve, the pressure on the labour market in
Poland. Owing to structural change, the number of jobs in
agriculture, mining, and heavy industry is expected to
decrease considerably during the next 10 years or so. The
current rate of unemployment is already high, namely some
15%. Thus, the entry into the labour market by some 1.5
million young individuals before the end of the present
decade will have an effect of aggravating all the
employment-related issues.

These young individuals, potentially quite mobile, will be
confronted with some job opportunities in major urban
centres, where the economic restructuring proceeds the
fastest. The attracting force of these places, however,
will be partly offset by the lagging housing construction,
and, hence, the high cost of housing, in particular the
rental cost. Generally, internal migration will not be
encouraged by the labour market and housing conditions.
Unemployment itself, when mitigated by unemployment
benefits and other social services provided at the place
of residence, tends to discourage spatial mobility of the
population.

For those prepared to undertake a move, migration abroad,
of a short or long duration, will continue to represent a
viable alternative. This pertains in particular to the
semi-skilled, typically - persons with secondary
vocational education. In case of the highly skilled and
professionals the labour market situation in Poland may be
relatively more advantageous. Unlike in the past, they
might be willing to accept work abroad as long as it does
not fall below their skills level, and readily enough -
when it implies a career advancement.

Such trends and aspirations have to be confronted with
expected future demand for foreign labour in Western
Europe, which is now the theme of a very broad, both
scientific and political debate (see, for example, A.
Coleman, 1992). Without going into this discussion one may
argue that Polish migrant workers are not without a
comparative advantage, based upon their versatility, as
well as the broad local contacts, i.e. networks. On the
other hand, they may be often outcompeted by migrants from
the former Soviet states, or the southern Mediterranean
countries, when it comes to accepting low wages or poor
work conditions. Such a trend has recently become visible
with respect to the employment of Polish merchant seamen
abroad.

Taking these limitations into account, together with the
growing reluctance towards accepting foreign labour in
some major EC countries, one cannot look at migration
(short or long-term, including that covered by official
bilateral agreements), as a panacea for Poland's present
and future labour market problems. The latter have to be
dealt with primarily by promoting investments and job
creation within Poland.

From the perspective of the labour receiving countries,
Poland should by no means be viewed as a country with
growing demographic momentum and an unlimited supply of
potential migrants. The peak of emigration from Poland is
definitely behind us. Migration does continue, and may
even increase in the near future, reflecting the bulge in
the share as well as the absolute size of the population
in the age category of 20-29 years. This bulge, however,
and some of the associated problems, will be over by the
year 2005.

There are two other important migration-related issues
which are likely to be faced in Poland in the next
years. The first one is the pending enforcement of
restrictive asylum policies in the Federal Republic of
Germany. As a "safe third country", and party to the
readmission agreement, Poland may have to accept as many
as up to 10 thousand (in 1993) non-eligible asylum
seekers, who would enter the FRG from Polish territory. In
1992 more than 30 thousand attempted illegal crossings
were registered, more than half by the citizens of
Romania. The presence of large numbers of refugees within
Poland may have various adverse social and economic
consequences.

Another issue is the prospective resettlement of Poles,
and people of Polish ethnic background, from countries of
the Former Soviet Union. Their total number is above one
million according to official statistics, but estimates
give figures about twice as big. Special legislation,
needed to deal with this question, has not yet been
explicitly addressed. Naturally, the actual migration
demand will be greatly influenced by economic and
political conditions prevailing in the countries of
present residence, but also in Poland.

IV. Conclusion

To conclude, migration will certainly continue to
represent an important aspect of life, and a direct
experience, to large segments of the Polish society.
However, the nature of this population movement will
evolve; the balance between the outflow and the inflow
will become more equal. One should hope that internal
migration opportunities will expand, so as to absorb the
main part of the mobility potential of the large
generation of the seventies.


References

Central Statistical Office, 1992. Demografia 1992.
Warszawa.

Coleman A., "Does Europe Need Immigrants?
Population and Work Force Projections", International
Migration Review 26, 2, 413-461, 1992.

Migration and Refugee Problems in Poland. Information
paper submitted by the
Polish Delegation to the CSCE Seminar on Migration,
Warszawa, 20-23 April, 1993. 

Governmental Commission on Population, 1992. Demographic
Situation of Poland. Central Planning Office, Warszawa.

Jozwiak J., "Demographic Prospects for Poland - the
1990s". Paper presented at the meeting of the Committee on
Demography of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, 29
March, 1993.


Komornicki T., "Person Movement on Poland's Border
Crossings. Changes Between 1980-1991", Institute of
Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of
Sciences, Warszawa, 1992.

Korcelli P.," International Migrations in Europe: Polish
Perspectives for the 1990s". International Migration
Review 26, pp.292-304, 1992.

Korcelli P., "On Interrelations Between Internal and
International Migration." Paper presented at the
Conference on New Mobilities, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin
fuer Sozialforschung, Berlin, 23-24 April, 1993.

Kurcz Z., "Die Gegenwaertige Emigration aus Polen." Paper
presented at the Conference on New Mobilities,
Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin fuer Sozialforschung, Berlin,
23-24 April, 1993.

Vossen A., "Ageing, Migration and Public Expenditure. The
Case of the Netherlands". Paper presented at the
International Conference on Mass Migrations in Europe.
Implications in East and West. Vienna, 5-7 March, 1992.

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First edition 1993
ISBN 92-845-0079-6

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