FM AMEMBASSY KIEV
SUMMARY
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1. THE MINISTRY OF STATISTICS (MINSTAT) RECENTLY RELEASED THE RESULTS OF UKRAINE'S ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 1996. THE ECONOMY GENERALLY PERFORMED BETTER COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD IN 1995 BUT IS STILL CONTRACTING. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) DECREASED BY 10 PERCENT, INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT BY 4.3 PERCENT, RETAIL TRADE TURNOVER BY 11.4 PERCENT, AND THE VOLUME OF SERVICES BY 11.5 PERCENT. FINANCIAL STABILIZATION REMAINED A BRIGHT SPOT AS INFLATION TOTALED 34.8 PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD AND ENABLED THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT TO INTRODUCE ITS NEW CURRENCY, THE HRYVNYA, IN SEPTEMBER. THE OVERALL LEVEL OF FOREIGN TRADE CONTINUED TO INCREASE DURING THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF THIS YEAR AND TOTALED JUST OVER USD 19 BILLION. END SUMMARY.
2. POST PROVIDES UKRAINIAN MACROECONOMIC SUMMARY FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 1996. STATISTICS ARE BASED ON OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT DATA (AND GENERALLY ARE NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED), UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED. THE DATA DO NOT REFLECT THE GROWING PRIVATE (OR SHADOW) ECONOMY WHICH BY MOST ESTIMATES ACCOUNTS FOR BETWEEN 40-60 PERCENT OF GDP.
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
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3. MINSTAT COMPILED THE FOLLOWING BREAKDOWN OF THE KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 1996:
PERCENT CHANGE FIRST NINE
COMPARED TO THE MONTHS
SAME PERIOD OF 1995 COM-
OF 1995 PARED TO
SAME PERIOD
OF 1994
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GDP -10.0 -12.7
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT -4.3 -14.4
AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT -14 -8.0
CONSUMER GOODS OUTPUT -19.7 -23.0
INCLUDING:
FOODSTUFFS -15.8 -20.5
NON-FOOD PRODUCTS -27.0 -31.0
CAPITAL INVESTMENT -26.0 -30.0
RETAIL TRADE
TURNOVER(EXCEPT
FARMERS' MARKETS) -11.4 -9.4
VOLUME OF PAID SERVICES -11.5 -40.0
ENERGY
COAL -17.9 -12.0
OIL -1.1 -4.3
GAS 1.1 -1.9
ELECTRICITY N/A -4.0
FOREIGN TRADE
EXPORTS 1/ 36.7 N/A
IMPORTS 1/ 50.0 N/A
NOTES:
1/ DATA FOR THE FIRST EIGHT MONTHS OF 1996 2/ SOURCES: MINSTAT
INDUSTRY
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4. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT DECLINED BY 4.3 PERCENT DURING THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF THE YEAR COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD OF 1995. THE GREATEST DECLINES WERE IN THE CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INDUSTRY -- ABOUT 40 PERCENT; LIGHT INDUSTRY -- 25 PERCENT AND FOOD INDUSTRY -- 16 PERCENT. HOWEVER, ALONG WITH THE OVERALL DECLINE, OUTPUT GREW SLIGHTLY IN SOME SECTORS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY (FOR EXAMPLE PRODUCTION OF VEGETABLE OIL INCREASED BY 34.0 PERCENT) AND OF THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY (OUTPUT OF TIRES INCREASED BY 10.5 PERCENT).
5. WHOLESALE INDUSTRIAL PRICES INCREASED BY 14.7 PERCENT FOR THE FIRST NINE
MONTHS OF 1996. THE LARGEST GROWTH OF PRICES WERE IN THE MACHINE BUILDING
INDUSTRY -- 24.3 PERCENT; CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INDUSTRY -- 22.3 PERCENT
AND WOOD PROCESSING AND PAPER INDUSTRY -- 21.7. THE SLOWEST GROWTH OF WHOLESALE
PRICES OCCURRED IN THE FOOD AND FUEL INDUSTRIES -- 3.5 AND 5.8 PERCENT ,
RESPECTIVELY.
AGRICULTURE
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6. GROSS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT DECREASED BY 14 PERCENT IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 1996 IN COMPARISON WITH THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR. AS OF EARLY OCTOBER, UKRAINE PRODUCED 21 MILLION TONS OF GRAIN (29 MILLION TONS WERE HARVESTED LAST YEAR). YIELDS ARE ALSO LOWER -- 2.05 METRIC TONS PER HECTARE THIS YEAR AS OPPOSED TO 2.57 METRIC TONS LAST YEAR.
7. DURING THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 1996, UKRAINIAN FARMS OF ALL TYPES (STATE OWNED, COLLECTIVE AND PRIVATE) PRODUCED 2.3 MILLION TONS OF MEAT AND POULTRY PRODUCTS (10 PERCENT DOWN COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR), 12.8 MILLION TONS OF MILK (NINE PERCENT DOWN), 7.4 BILLION EGGS (SIX PERCENT DOWN) AND 9,200 TONS OF WOOL (33 PERCENT DOWN). THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CATTLE AT STATE OWNED FARMS AMOUNTED TO 16.6 MILLION, AN 11 PERCENT DECREASE FROM THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR. THE NUMBER OF SHEEP AND GOATS FELL BY 27 PERCENT, POULTRY STOCK FELL BY 13 PERCENT, COWS BY SIX PERCENT, AND PIGS BY FOUR PERCENT.
8. WHOLESALE AGRICULTURAL PRICES INCREASED BY 14 PERCENT, COMPARED TO A 59 PERCENT INCREASE DURING THE SAME PERIOD IN 1995. AT THE SAME TIME PRICES FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS USED BY AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES GREW BY 21 PERCENT (COMPARED TO LAST YEAR'S 79 PERCENT INCREASE).
ENERGY
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9. PRODUCTION OF ENERGY RESOURCES DECREASED BY 13 PERCENT DURING THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF THE YEAR. RAW COAL (BEFORE CLEANING) PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 12 MILLION TONS AND AMOUNTED TO 52.5 MILLION TONS, A 17.9 PERCENT DECREASE. OIL PRODUCTION (INCLUDING GAS CONDENSATE) FELL BY 1.1 PERCENT AND AMOUNTED TO JUST OVER THREE MILLION TONS. NATURAL GAS OUTPUT, HOWEVER, INCREASED BY 1.1 PERCENT AND TOTALED 13.6 BILLION CUBIC METERS. ELECTRICITY OUTPUT BY THERMAL AND HYDRO POWER PLANTS DROPPED BY 16 PERCENT, WHILE ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION BY NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS GREW BY 15 PERCENT.
FOREIGN TRADE
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10. FOREIGN TRADE GREW SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE FIRST EIGHT MONTHS OF 1996
AND TOTALED ALMOST USD 19.2 BILLION, 43.3 PERCENT MORE THAN IN THE SAME PERIOD
OF 1995. EXPORTS GREW BY 36.7 PERCENT AND EQUALED USD 9.3 BILLION WHILE IMPORTS
GREW BY 50.0 PERCENT AND AMOUNTED TO USD 9.9 BILLION, LEAVING A NEGATIVE BALANCE
OF ABOUT USD 585 MILLION.
11. FORMER SOVIET UNION (FSU) COUNTRIES ACCOUNT FOR 55.3 PERCENT OF UKRAINIAN EXPORTS AND 62.0 PERCENT OF IMPORTS. RUSSIA REMAINS UKRAINE'S LARGEST TRADING PARTNER, ACCOUNTING FOR 41.9 PERCENT OF TOTAL EXPORTS AND 43.1 PERCENT OF TOTAL IMPORTS. UKRAINE'S LARGEST NON-FSU TRADING PARTNERS ARE THE UNITED STATES -- 2.6 PERCENT OF EXPORTS AND 2.8 PERCENT OF IMPORTS, GERMANY -- 2.8 PERCENT OF EXPORTS AND 6.4 PERCENT OF IMPORTS, AND POLAND -- 2.4 PERCENT OF EXPORTS AND 3.5 PERCENT OF IMPORTS.
BANKING SECTOR
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12. THE ASSOCIATION OF UKRAINIAN BANKS (AUB) HAS RELEASED THE RESULTS OF THE UKRAINIAN COMMERCIAL BANKS' PERFORMANCE IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF 1996. AS OF OCTOBER 1, 1996, THERE WERE 230 BANKS IN UKRAINE AND THE BALANCES OF 113 BANKS WERE ANALYZED BY THE ASSOCIATION. ACCORDING TO THE AUB, CASH BALANCES INCREASED 47 PERCENT IN COMPARISON WITH THE SECOND QUARTER AND AMOUNTED TO UAH 19.9 BILLION (ABOUT USD 110.5 MILLION). THE LEVEL OF THE BANKS' PROFITABILITY, HOWEVER, DECREASED SOMEWHAT TO UAH 516.3 MILLION (AROUND USD 2.87 MILLION) OVER THE FIST NINE MONTHS OF THE YEAR. THE AUTHORIZED FUNDS OF THE 113 BANKS ANALYZED AMOUNTED TO JUST UAH 418 MILLION (USD 225.9 MILLION). THE POPULATION'S SAVINGS REACHED UAH 675.5 MILLION (USD 7.16 PER CAPITA) AND INCREASED BY 17.5 PERCENT AS COMPARED TO JUNE 1, 1996. TRADITIONALLY, THE SAVINGS BANK ACCOUNTS FOR THE LION'S SHARE OF PERSONAL SAVINGS -- 67.2 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL AMOUNT.
TRANSPORTATION
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13. AS REPORTED BY MINSTAT, FREIGHT TURNOVER IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 1996
TOTALED 600 MILLION TONS, 19 PERCENT LESS THAN IN THE CORRESPONDING PERIOD
OF 1995. THE FOLL
OWING IS A BREAKDOWN OF FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION:
TONS SHIPPED PERCENT CHANGE
(MILLION) COMPARED TO FIRST
NINE MONTHS OF 1995
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RAIL 222 -17.0
ROAD 167 -35.0
MARITIME 11 -36.0
RIVER 6 -45.0
PIPELINE 193 0.0
14. DECREASES WERE REGISTERED IN ALMOST ALL TYPES OF CARGO. THE GREATEST DROPS WERE IN THE TRANSPORT OF CEMENT -- 38 PERCENT, TIMBER -- 25 PERCENT, AND COAL -- 21 PERCENT. OVERSEAS CARGO SHIPPING TURNOVER INCREASED BY 13 PERCENT IN COMPARISON WITH THE SAME PERIOD OF 1995 AND THE VOLUME OF THE PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION STAYED AT THE SAME LEVEL.