INTRODUCTION
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1. RUSSIA'S OFFICIALLY REPORTED EXPORTS GREW 21 PERCENT IN 1995 TO USD 76.3
BILLION DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL REAL APPRECIATION OF THE
RUBLE AND SOME CONCERNS THAT EXPORT CAPACITY WAS REACHING THE
SATURATION POINT. RECORDED IMPORTS FOR THE WHOLE YEAR GREW
ALMOST, BUT NOT QUITE, AS RAPIDLY AS EXPORTS TO USD 46.2 BILLION
DESPITE EXPECTATIONS OF AN IMPORT BOOM AS THE RUBLE'S REAL VALUE
ROSE. BY YEAR END, IMPORTS WERE GROWING MORE RAPIDLY THAN EXPORTS.
2. DURING 1995, RUSSIA'S TRADE POLICY CONTINUED TO EVOLVE. IN A RECENT SPEECH, DEPUTY MINISTER FOR FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS RAZDUKHOV COMMENTED THAT, AFTER SOMEWHAT HASTY LIBERALIZATION IN THE EARLY DAYS OF RUSSIAN ECONOMIC REFORM, RUSSIA'S TRADE POLICY FOCUS SHOULD TURN TO DEFINING PRIORITIES IN TERMS OF PROTECTING DOMESTIC PRODUCERS, DEVELOPING INDUSTRIAL AND SERVICE EXPORTS, AND PROMOTING RUSSIAN INTERESTS IN FOREIGN MARKETS. IN 1995, RUSSIA INTRODUCED A LAW ON STATE REGULATION OF FOREIGN TRADE ACTIVITY; FLOWING FROM THE LAW WAS THE ESTABLISHMENT OF PROCEDURES AND MECHANISMS FOR TAKING TRADE DEFENSIVE MEASURES. THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT CALLED ON THE NEW PROCEDURES, FOR EXAMPLE, IN A CASE INVOLVING TEXTILE IMPORTS FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION. THE GOVERNMENT HAS ALSO ANNOUNCED A PROGRAM TO PROMOTE EXPORTS OF MANUFACTURED GOODS.
3. RUSSIA'S EXPORTS TO NON-NIS COUNTRIES ACCOUNTED FOR 78.4 PERCENT OF TOTAL EXPORTS IN 1995 AND WERE UP 3.5 PERCENT OVER 1994. RUSSIA SOURCED 68.9 PERCENT OF ITS IMPORTS FROM NON-NIS COUNTRIES. THE VALUE OF IMPORTS FROM THESE COUNTRIES DROPPED 2.5 PERCENT IN 1995 OVER 1994. RUSSIA'S TRADE HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED IN WESTERN, CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE, WITH THE UNITED STATES HOLDING THIRD PLACE AFTER UKRAINE AND GERMANY. THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT HAS ANNOUNCED THAT THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION, AS THE WORLD'S MOST DYNAMIC, WOULD BECOME A PRIORITY AREA FOR RUSSIAN TRADE. RUSSIA ALSO WISHES TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP COOPERATION WITH THE NIS COUNTRIES AS PART OF A REGIONAL PROGRAM TO CREATE AN ECONOMICALLY-INTEGRATED UNION.
1995 TRADE STATISTICS, IN DETAIL
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4. BELOW ARE DETAILED TABLES ON RUSSIA'S EXTERNAL TRADE FOR JANUARY THROUGH DECEMBER 1995, COMPARED TO THE CORRESPONDING PERIOD OF 1994. THE STATISTICS ARE DRAWN FROM RUSSIAN CUSTOMS COMMITTEE DATA. THEY ARE SUBJECT TO REVISION AND DO NOT NECESSARILY TRACK WITH PARTNER TRADE DATA.
OVERVIEW
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5. RUSSIA'S OFFICIALLY RECORDED EXPORTS INCREASED BY USD 13.3 BILLION TO 76.3
BILLION IN 1995, A 21.1 PERCENT GROWTH OVER 1994. IMPORTS ROSE BY USD 7.6
BILLION TO USD 46.2 BILLION, A 20.0 PERCENT INCREASE. RUSSIA'S TRADE SURPLUS
WIDENED FROM USD 24.4 BILLION IN 1994 TO USD 30.0 BILLION DURING 1995.
6. IN 1995, A SHIFT TOWARD A HIGHER GROWTH RATE FOR IMPORTS THAN FOR EXPORTS BEGAN TO EMERGE DURING SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR (SEE TABLE I). WHEN THE FIRST HALF OF 1995 IS COMPARED TO THE FIRST HALF OF 1994, EXPORT GROWTH (32.2 PERCENT) WAS ALMOST DOUBLE THAT OF IMPORT GROWTH (19.1 PERCENT). HOWEVER, COMPARING THE SECOND HALF OF 1995 TO THE SECOND HALF OF 1994, ALMOST THE OPPOSITE WAS EVIDENT, WITH EXPORTS UP 13.4 PERCENT AND IMPORTS UP 25.7 PERCENT.
TABLE I: PATTERNS OF EXPORT AND IMPORT GROWTH ----------------------------------------------
BY QUARTER (USD BILLION; PERCENT CHANGE OVER CORRESPONDING PERIOD OF PRECEDING
YEAR)
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EXPORTS IMPORTS
PERCENT PERCENT
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE VALUE CHANGE
------ ----- ------- ----- -------
1995
--Q1 17.465 40.9 10.082 13.0
--Q2 18.957 25.5 11.171 25.1
--Q3 18.645 8.8 11.394 26.9
--Q4 21.187 17.9 13.523 20.4
REGIONAL PATTERNS
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7. WESTERN EUROPE REMAINED RUSSIA'S LARGEST TRADING PARTNER, TAKING 39 PERCENT OF EXPORTS (USD 29.7 BILLION) AND SUPPLYING 41 PERCENT OF IMPORTS (USD 18.8 BILLION). IN BILATERAL TRADE, UKRAINE CAPTURED FIRST PLACE WITH 9.0 PERCENT OF RUSSIA'S EXPORTS (USD 6.9 BILLION) AND 14.2 PERCENT OF RUSSIA'S IMPORTS USD 6.6 BILLION). GERMANY CAME IN SECOND PLACE WITH 7.8 PERCENT OF EXPORTS (USD 5.9 BILLION) AND 14.1 PERCENT OF IMPORTS (USD 6.5 BILLION). THE UNITED STATES WAS THIRD, BUYING 5.6 PERCENT OF EXPORTS (USD 4.3 BILLION) AND SUPPLYING 5.7 PERCENT OF RUSSIA'S IMPORTS (USD 2.6 BILLION).
TABLE II - RUSSIA'S TRADING PARTNERS, (MILLION USD) --------------------------------------------------
JAN-DEC JAN-DEC JAN-DEC
94 94 94
EXPORT IMPORT BALANCE
------ ------ -------
AFRICA 419.2 162.6 256.6
ASIA (W/O CHINA) 4463.0 2295.9 2167.0
CHINA 2833.7 951.9 1881.8
EUR 26400.2 16039.5 10360.7
EUR-EE 5751.6 3299.4 2452.2
MIDDLE EAST 2653.2 1398.6 1254.6
NIS-ASIA 3736.4 3343.0 393.3
NIS-EUR 12025.8 7639.8 4386.0
CANADA 183.5 187.0 - 3570.8
S.AMERICA 1047.3 788.3 258.9
S.PACIFIC 40.3 299.3 - 258.9
USA 3372.4 2069.4 1303.0
TOTAL 62927.2 38475.2 24451.9
JAN-DEC JAN-DEC JAN-DEC
95 95 95
EXPORT IMPORT BALANCE
------ ------ -------
AFRICA 660.8 181.9 478.8
ASIA (W/O CHINA) 6928.2 1961.3 4966.8
CHINA 3368.9 863.8 2505.0
EUR 29721.5 18859.7 10861.7
EUR-EE 8116.0 4081.7 4034.2
MIDDLE EAST 4268.3 1712.0 2556.2
NIS-ASIA 3892.9 4127.2 - 234.3
NIS-EUR 12534.4 10227.9 2306.5
CANADA 121.1 221.6 - 100.5
S. AMERICA 2288.0 1054.0 1234.0
S.PACIFIC 30.6 242.9 - 212.3
USA 4324.6 2638.0 1686.5
TOTAL 76255.7 46172.8 30082.8
NOTE:
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"EUR-EE" CONSISTS OF FORMER CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES OF EASTERN EUROPE.
"NIS-ASIA" CONSISTS OF NEWLY INDEPENDENT STATES LOCATED WEST OF THE BLACK SEA, I.E., ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN, GEORGIA, KAZAKHSTAN, KYRGHZSTAN, TAJIKISTAN, TURKMENISTAN, UZBEKISTAN, "NIS-EUR" CONSISTS OF BELARUS, MOLDOVA, AND UKRAINE PLUS THE THREE BALTICS (ESTONIA, LATVIA, LITHUANIA)
TABLE III - REGIONAL PATTERNS, PERCENT CHANGE --------------------------------------------
JAN-DEC JAN-DEC
94-95 94-95
EXPORT IMPORT
------ ------
AFRICA 57.6 11.8
ASIA (W/O CHINA) 55.2 - 14.5
CHINA 18.8 - 9.2
EUR 12.5 17.5
EUR-EE 41.1 23.7
MIDDLE EAST 60.8 22.4
NIS-ASIA 4.1 23.4
NIS-EUR 4.2 33.8
CANADA - 34.0 18.5
S.AMERICA 118.4 33.7
S.PACIFIC - 24.0 - 18.8
USA 28.2 27.4
8. RUSSIA'S SURPLUS IN ITS MODEST BUT GROWING TRADE WITH SOUTH
AMERICA SURGED DURING 1995. HIGH GROWTH EXPORTS INCLUDED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS,
NEWSPRINT, IRON AND STEEL.
9. RUSSIA'S EXPORTS TO THE NEWLY INDEPENDENT STATES REMAINED STABLE, WHILE ITS IMPORTS GREW QUITE RAPIDLY. BOTH EXPORTS AND IMPORTS PICKED UP TOWARD THE END OF THE YEAR, WITH NIS-ASIA AND NIS-EUR FOURTH QUARTER EXPORTS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.6 PERCENT AND 27.8 PERCENT OF THE YEAR'S TOTAL EXPORTS TO THOSE AREAS AND IMPORTS FOR 29.5 PERCENT AND 33.3 PERCENT. THE MOST RAPIDLY GROWING IMPORTS TO RUSSIA FROM NIS-ASIA AND NIS-EUR IN 1995 INCLUDED SUGAR, MEAT PRODUCTS, WHEAT, RAILROAD PARTS, COAL, AND SUNFLOWER OIL; EXPORTS INCLUDED NATURAL GAS, CRUDE PETROLEUM OIL, OTHER PETROLEUM PRODUCTS, COAL AND MOTOR VEHICLES.
TRADE WITH THE UNITED STATES
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10. 1995 BILATERAL TRADE SHOWS RUSSIA'S EXPORTS TO THE U.S. AS USD 4.3 BILLION AND IMPORTS FROM THE U.S. AS USD 2.6 BILLION, UP 28.2 PERCENT AND 27.4 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OVER 1994. THE USD 1.7 BILLION OF RUSSIA'S FULL-YEAR TRADE SURPLUS IN BILATERAL TRADE IS UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE FULL-YEAR 1994 TRADE SURPLUS OF USD 1.3 BILLION. LEADING RUSSIAN EXPORTS TO THE U.S DURING 1995 INCLUDED ALUMINUM PRODUCTS (HARMONIZED SYSTEM CATEGORY 7601), IRON AND STEEL PRODUCTS (7208 AND 7207), PIG IRON (7201), PETROLEUM CRUDE (2709) AND AMMONIA (2814). MAJOR IMPORTS FROM THE U.S. INCLUDED POULTRY MEAT (0207), MILK/DAIRY MACHINERY (8434), MACHINERY PARTS (8431), TOBACCO PRODUCTS (2402) AND PORK (0203).
11. U.S. STATISTICS ON BILATERAL TRADE, WHILE NOT IDENTICAL TO RUSSIA'S, GENERALLY CONFIRM GROWTH IN TWO-WAY TRADE. U.S. DATA SHOW U.S. IMPORTS OF USD 4 BILLION UP 25 PERCENT OVER 1994 AND U.S. EXPORTS OF USD 2.8 BILLION UP 10 PERCENT. U.S. STATISTICS INDICATE THAT LEADING U.S. IMPORTS FROM RUSSIA IN 1995 INCLUDE ALUMINUM, IRON AND STEEL, PRECIOUS STONE AND METALS, INORGANIC CHEMICALS AND NICKEL, LEADING U.S. EXPORTS TO RUSSIA IN 1995 WERE MEAT, MACHINERY, ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, AIRCRAFT AND VEHICLES.
PERFORMANCE BY PRODUCT: THE TOP 20
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EXPORTS
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12. CRUDE OIL, NATURAL GAS, OTHER PETROLEUM PRODUCTS AND ALUMINUM WERE THE LARGEST EXPORT ITEMS FOR 1995. EXPORTS OF THESE PRODUCTS ROSE 16, 6.9, 19.1 AND 44.1 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY, IN 1995 OVER 1994. EXPORTS OF NEWSPRINT AND WOOD PULP HAD THE LARGEST PERCENTAGE OF GROWTH OVER THE 1994 LEVELS. MAJOR MARKETS FOR NEWSPRINT INCLUDE TURKEY, INDIA AND THAILAND AND FOR WOOD PULP SWITZERLAND, SWEDEN, FRANCE, TURKEY AND NORTH KOREA. RUSSIA'S 1995 TRADE DATA INDICATE SALES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS TO BULGARIA, CZECH REPUBLIC, UKRAINE, AND HUNGARY.
13. COTTON (5201) AND METHANOL (METHYL ALCOHOL) (290511000) MADE THE 1994 TOP 20 BUT WERE NOT IN THE 1995 LIST. NEWSPRINT (4801) AND IRON ORES (2601) WERE NEWCOMERS TO THE 1995 TOP 20 LIST.
TABLE IV - TOP 20 EXPORT COMMODITIES
FOR JAN-DEC 1995 BY VALUE (USD 1,000)
--------------------------------------
PERCENT
COMMODITY 1994 1995 CHANGE
--------- ---- ---- -------
2601-IRON ORES 221204 315155 42.2
2701-COAL 752433 1016732 35.1
2709-PETROLEUM, CRUDE 10475877 12160041 16.0
2710-PETROLEUM, OTHER 4139156 4930074 19.1
271121000-NATURAL GAS 10590781 11323309 6.9
281410000-AMMONIA 361219 417199 15.4
3102-FERT, NITROGENOUS 505813 968212 91.4
3105-FERT, OTHER 404703 583598 44.2
4002-SYNTHETIC RUBBER 301742 531772 76.2
4403-WOOD IN ROUGH 765224 1010569 32.0
4407-WOOD, SAWN/CHOPPED 623681 698331 11.9
4703-WOOD, PULP 309266 761703 146.2
4801-NEWSPRINT 197052 594756 201.8
7201-PIG IRON 381485 374552 - 1.8
7202-FERRO-ALLOYS 459733 529843 15.2
7403-COPPER 925271 1148951 24.1
7502-NICKEL 733092 1214858 65.7
7601-ALUMINUM 2354067 3393813 44.1
8401-NUCLEAR REACTORS 309865 462539 49.2
8703-MOTOR CARS 768377 766728 0.0
IMPORTS
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14. OF THE TOP TWENTY IMPORTS, MEDICAMENTS (ALTHOUGH DOWN 19.1 PERCENT ON 1994), WHITE SUGAR AND POULTRY WERE THE THREE LARGEST IMPORT ITEMS FOR 1995. WHITE SUGAR, BUTTER, WINE AND PORK WERE LEADING GROWTH ITEMS, WHILE COCOA, ALUMINUM ORES, AND TV RECEIVER IMPORTS WERE THE BIG LOSERS ON THE TOP 20 LIST. MAJOR SUPPLIERS OF WHITE SUGAR WERE UKRAINE, GERMANY AND MOLDOVA; OF BUTTER, UKRAINE AND NEW ZEALAND, USA; OF WINE, MOLDOVA, UKRAINE AND ITALY; AND OF PORK, CHINA, GERMANY AND DENMARK.
15. CITRUS FRUIT (0805), COAL (2701), FOOTWEAR (6403), DATA PROCESSING MACHINES (8471), MOTOR VEHICLES (8703) AND TRANSPORT VEHICLES (8704) MADE THE 1994 TOP 20 BUT WERE NOT IN THE 1995 LIST. PORK (0203), BUTTER (0405), CANE SUGAR (170111), WHITE SUGAR (17019910), WINE (2204), VODKA (220890310), AND TOBACCO PRODUCTS (2402) WERE NEWCOMERS TO THE TOP 20 LIST.
16. FOOD/BEVERAGE PRODUCTS MADE UP 49.3 PERCENT OF TOTAL IMPORTS BY VALUE. DECLINING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION AND TRADE LIBERALIZATION HAVE MADE FOOD IMPORTS POSSIBLE AND NECESSARY. CONCERN ABOUT DECLINES IN AGRICULTURE OUTPUT HAVE BECOME A SENSITIVE ISSUE IN RUSSIA, WHILE IMPORT GROWTH HAS PROMPTED SOME RUSSIANS TO CALL FOR RESTRAINTS ON IMPORTED FOODSTUFFS AND BEVERAGES.
TABLE V - TOP 20 IMPORT COMMODITIES
FOR JAN-DEC 1995 BY VALUE (USD 1,000)
---------------------------------------
PERCENT
COMMODITY 1994 1995 CHANGE
--------- ---- ---- -------
0202-MEAT BOVINE 334609 558294 66.8
0203-MEAT SWINE 260581 453556 74.0
0207-MEAT POULTRY 444887 687766 54.4
0405-BUTTER 188865 451735 139.0
1602-MEAT OTHER 409377 451054 10.1
170111-CANE SUGAR 294798 445102 50.9
17019910-WHITE SUGAR 313467 809911 158.3
1806-COCOA 713848 394652 - 44.7
2204-WINE 273735 507741 85.4
220890310-VODKA 325510 501155 53.9
2402-TOBACCO PRODUCTS 343741 489781 42.4 2606-ALUMINUM ORES 718825 461725
- 35.7
2710-PETROLEUM, OTHER 494691 445032 - 10.0 3004-MEDICAMENTS 1176783 951034
- 19.1
5201-COTTON 340792 410012 20.3
7304-IRON/STEEL TUBES 390008 445348 14.1 8438-FOOD PROC MACHINE 490173 613332
25.1 8528-TV RECEIVERS 578759 406063 - 29.8
9018-MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS 660676 672675 1.8
9403-FURNITURE 477759 505293 5.7