Subject: International Crisis Group - Central Asia Report
From: Sascha Pichler (spichler@crisisweb.org)
Date: Mon Aug 07 2000 - 12:59:43 EDT
ICG - International Crisis Group
Press Release
CENTRAL ASIA: CRISIS CONDITIONS IN THREE STATES
Brussels, 7 August 2000: Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan - and
especially the Ferghana Valley area encompassing parts of each - face the
prospect of civil unrest and large-scale violence. This is not a certain
outcome and may be avoided if their governments make substantial changes in
domestic policy, but the risks are high and mounting.
This is the key conclusion of the first report by the International Crisis
Group (ICG) on Central Asia, released today.
The report also identifies a number of risk factors - including the
situation in Afghanistan, and religion-based political activism - capable of
transforming domestic crisis into inter-state or region-wide conflict.
If national governments are to be helped to deal with these concerns, major
powers and international organisations will need, in ways identified in the
report, to re-orient and expand their commitments to economic development,
security and good governance.
In this respect, there is an asymmetry between, on the one hand, the major
powers' interests, and on the other, the resources available for influence.
For the wealthier Western countries, Central Asia is only of marginal
strategic, political and economic interest, while Russia and China both have
important interests but fewer material resources to apply.
The report argues that in the future China's growing economic power and its
strategic interests in Central Asia can and should be harnessed for
effective conflict prevention. And while Russia's influence is small
compared with the Soviet era, it is still significant: Moscow also needs to
be constructively engaged. Conflict prevention in Central Asia will need as
much cooperative diplomacy between these and other major powers as can be
mustered.
This first ICG Central Asia report is the result of a fact-finding mission
to the three countries by a team of five highly qualified policy analysts.
The preliminary judgements in this report will be further explored and
developed by an ICG project team which is expected to start work in the
field later this month.
For information, contact: Greg Austin or Sascha Pichler at ICG Brussels,
tel +32 2 502 90 38. The report, Central Asia: Crisis Conditions in Three
States, will also be available from 1.00 pm (GMT) today at ICG's website,
http://www.crisisweb.org/. Anyone interested in receiving email
notification upon release of future ICG Central Asia publications please
contact Sascha Pichler at spichler@crisisweb.org. Hard copies of the reports
can be sent to persons who have difficulty accessing or downloading
materials from the Internet - in this case please indicate your mailing
address.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) is a private, multinational
organisation working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to
prevent and contain conflict. The ICG Board is chaired by former Finnish
President Martti Ahtisaari, and its president is former Australian Foreign
Minister Gareth Evans.
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