Forty is the old age of youth; fifty, the youth of old age. - Victor Hugo
RFE/RL NEWSLINE

RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 3, No. 222, Part II, 15 November 1999


___________________________________________________________
RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 3, No. 222, Part II, 15 November 1999

A daily report of developments in Eastern and Southeastern
Europe, Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia prepared by the
staff of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

This is Part II, a compilation of news concerning Central,
Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. Part I covers Russia,
Transcaucasia and Central Asia and is distributed
simultaneously as a second document. Back issues of RFE/RL
Newsline and the OMRI Daily Digest are online at RFE/RL's Web
site: http://www.rferl.org/newsline

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Headlines, Part II

* KUCHMA WINS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE

* TRAJKOVSKI LEADING IN MACEDONIAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE

* TUDJMAN REMAINS IN CRITICAL CONDITION

End Note: CROATIA AFTER TUDJMAN
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EAST-CENTRAL EUROPE

KUCHMA WINS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE... According to
unofficial results, incumbent President Leonid Kuchma scored
a convincing victory over communist rival Petro Symonenko in
the 14 November presidential runoff. With the election tally
nearly complete, Kuchma obtained 56.31 percent of the vote
and Symonenko 37.76 percent, Reuters reported. According to
Interfax, turnout was 74 percent. "This shows we have a huge
popular mandate to speed up reform," Kuchma's campaign team
head Ivan Kuras commented, adding that the ballot gives
Kuchma the green light for parliamentary reform. Symonenko on
15 November conceded defeat but accused Kuchma's team of
major election violations and vote rigging. "Everything that
happened during the first and second round [of voting]
demonstrates that Ukraine has become a police state," AP
quoted Symonenko as saying. JM

...PLEDGES TO MAKE 'RESOLUTE' ECONOMIC REFORMS. Talking to
journalists after casting his vote in Kyiv on 14 November,
Kuchma said he intends to take "resolute steps" to reform the
country's economy in the event of his victory, Interfax
reported. He added that these steps will "not always be
popular." Kuchma did not rule out that the parliament would
be dissolved if it failed to form a majority. He added that
after the presidential ballot he may "ask the people" what is
to be done with the parliament. At the same time, Kuchma
pledged that the presidential powers to form a cabinet will
"to some extent" be passed to a legislature with a majority.
JM

UKRAINE'S SUPREME COURT REJECTS ELECTION VIOLATION
COMPLAINTS. The Supreme Court on 13 November rejected
complaints by presidential candidates Oleksandr Moroz and
Yuriy Karmazin of violations in the first presidential
election round on 31 October. According to Interfax, the
court refused to view the complaints on the grounds that "in
accordance with the legislation in force, [they] are not
subject to consideration by courts." Ukraine's presidential
election law does not provide for the courts to declare a
presidential election invalid. JM

MINSK POLICE DENY BEATING OF 'FREEDOM MARCH' PARTICIPANTS.
The Minsk-based Association for Legal Assistance to the
Population has received an official reply to its complaint
about the police brutality during the 17 October opposition
"freedom march," Belapan reported on 12 November. The
association had collected and handed to the police the
results of medical examinations of 20 people who were beaten
by riot policemen after their arrests on 17 October. "The
citizens in question were arrested for violating street
demonstration regulations. There is no evidence that [riot
police] officers used brutal force," Belapan quoted the Minsk
Main Internal Affairs Directorate as saying. JM

OSCE MISSION SAYS HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION IN BELARUS
UNSATISFACTORY. Hans-Peter Kleiner, deputy head of the OSCE
Consultative and Monitoring group in Minsk, said on 12
October that the human rights situation in Belarus is
unsatisfactory. Kleiner said that is not only because police
beat demonstrators but also because the state-controlled
media do not report on human rights violations. Meanwhile,
Russia's Commissioner for Human Rights Oleg Mironov, who
visited Belarus from 8-11 November, failed to meet with the
country's leading human rights organizations such as Spring-
96, Charter-97, and the Belarusian Helsinki Committee.
Mironov, however, met with Yauhen Novikau, head of the
Belarusian National League for Human Rights. Novikau told
Belapan on 12 November that the human rights situation in
Belarus was worse before President Alyaksandr Lukashenka came
to power than it is now. JM

BALTIC DIPLOMATS ATTEND EU NORTHERN DIMENSION CONFERENCE. The
foreign ministers of Estonia and Latvia and Lithuania's
deputy foreign minister attended a conference on the EU's
Northern Dimension in Helsinki on 12 November. On the
meeting's agenda was further regional cooperation, especially
in the economic sphere, the Baltic Ring project to connect
the power grids of all Baltic Sea countries, and the Nordic
Gas Pipeline project to build a gas pipeline system for all
countries in the region, ETA and BNS reported. Also discussed
were transport links and infrastructure within the region.
Lithuanian Deputy Foreign Minister Vygaudas Usackas commented
that Kaliningrad should have a wider role in regional
projects. Several important bilateral meetings were held,
such as one between Latvian Foreign Minister Indulis Berzins
and his Russian counterpart, Igor Ivanov. MH

ESTONIA BECOMES WTO MEMBER. Estonia on 13 November officially
became a member of the World Trade
Organization. Estonia, the 135th member of the international
trade body, had ratified the accession protocol last month.
MH

LATVIAN REFERENDUM FAILS. The 13 November referendum on
changes to the pensions law failed due to low turnout. The
Central Electoral Commission announced that only 25.08
percent of the electorate turned out to vote. Latvian laws
state that turnout must exceed 50 percent for a referendum to
be valid. However, 94.18 percent (with all votes counted,
except those from abroad) voted to annul the government
changes, which raised the retirement age and restricted
payments to working pensioners (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6
August 1999). Prime Minister Andris Skele, a primary backer
of the changes, had called on citizens not to take part in
the referendum, BNS reported. MH

POLLS SHOW NEGATIVE LITHUANIAN REACTION TOWARDS OIL DEAL. A
survey conducted by Vilmorus from 4-8 November shows that the
Lithuanian government's deal with U.S. oil company Williams
International (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 1 November 1999) has affected public opinion
toward leading politicians, "Lietuvos Rytas" reported on 13
November. The two individuals seen as champions of the deal,
President Valdas Adamkus and parliamentary chairman Vytautas
Landsbergis, saw their popularity plummet; the president's
approval rating dropped to 48.6 percent from 81.6 percent one
month ago, while 60.4 percent of respondents gave Landsbergis
a negative rating, compared with 46.7 percent last month.
Adamkus's role in the deal has also affected public opinion
toward the presidency, with confidence in the institution
tumbling to 35.9 percent from 70.8 percent in early October.
Meanwhile, the ratings of the three ministers who resigned
over the deal all increased. MH

EU COMMISSIONER PLEDGES SUPPORT TO LITHUANIA. The European
Union's Commissioner for Enlargement Issues Guenter
Verheugen, during a visit to Lithuania on 12 November,
reaffirmed his support for Lithuania's bid to join the EU.
Stressing that the European Commission's recommendation for
Lithuania to start accession negotiations is based on
positive reforms, Verheugen added that the pace of
Lithuania's membership process will depend on progress made
by that country, ELTA reported. Verheugen also promised 20
million euros ($20.64 million) annually for the program to
shut down the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant. He added that
more funds will be forthcoming from a donors' conference to
be held in the near future. MH

POLISH COALITION MEETS DIFFICULTIES IN BID TO PASS TAX
REFORM. Parliamentary deputies from the coalition Solidarity
Electoral Action and Freedom Union on 12 November voted down
a motion by the opposition Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) to
reject a tax reform bill (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 November
1999). The parliamentary Committee for Public Finances is now
drawing up another version of the bill for a second reading
scheduled on 16 November. In order to take effect on 1
January 2000, the bill must be approved by both parliamentary
chambers and signed by the president by 30 November.
Meanwhile, SLD leader Leszek Miller said on 14 November that
the opposition will do everything possible to prevent the
bill from being passed on time. "The draft tax law is wrong
and socially harmful," PAP quoted Miller as saying. JM

KLAUS'S SUPER COALITION IDEA REJECTED. Freedom Union chairman
Jan Ruml and Christian Democratic leader Jan Kasal on 13
November rejected the idea of forming a "super coalition" of
all parties in the Czech parliament, excluding the
Communists, Czech media reported. Their comments came after a
round-table meeting with Social Democratic (ODS) leader Milos
Zeman and Civic Democratic leader Vaclav Klaus. Ruml added
that since Klaus refuses to support a no-confidence vote in
Zeman's government, the possibility of a separate coalition
between the Freedom Union, the Christian Democrats, and the
ODS is also "blocked." However, Klaus noted that the four
leaders did not discuss the possibility of such a "right-of-
center" coalition, leaving the door open for future
discussions. Zeman said the four leaders will meet again in
two weeks or so to discuss cooperation in the parliament on
various laws. VG

CZECH ROMANY REPRESENTATIVES SUSPEND PROTEST. A group of
Czech Roma who have been camped beside a wall that separates
Roma from four ethnic Czech households in Usti nad Labem
temporarily suspended their sit-in protest on 12 November
after meeting with Prime Minister Milos Zeman, Czech media
reported. Romany activist Ondrej Gina said the protesters
want to give the government and the local town council time
to resolve the issue. Zeman rejected speculation that the
state intends to buy the four houses, saying the government
will not allow itself to be "blackmailed." A spokesman for
the mayor of Usti nad Labem described Zeman's statement as
"irresponsible" and questioned whether any solution to the
problem is possible if one side describes the other as a
"blackmailer." VG

AUSTRIAN MINISTER SAYS REPORT PROVES SLOVAK PLANT UNSAFE. A
spokesman for Austrian Consumer Protection Minister Barbara
Prammer said a report by the Slovak nuclear safety agency
proves that the Jaslovske Bohunice nuclear power plant is
unsafe, TKE reported. A spokesman for the minister, spokesman
Robert Wier, said the minister had received the report from
the Institute for Research on Nuclear Risks. He said the
report states that Slovakia's Nuclear Supervision Office has
refused to give the Bohunice plant operational licenses for
longer than one year since 1995. Wier said this confirms that
even some Slovaks share Austria's worries about the plant's
safety. VG

ETHNIC HUNGARIAN PARTY RE-ELECTS CHAIRMAN IN SLOVAKIA. Bela
Bugar was re-elected chairman of the Hungarian Coalition
Party at a party congress on 14 November, TASR reported. The
party is a member of the governing coalition in Slovakia.
Deputy Prime Minister Pal Csaky, who had initially run for
the post, eventually dropped out of the race. VG

SLOVAK PARLIAMENTARY CHAIRMAN SAYS EU EXPANSION WILL TAKE
PLACE. Jozef Migas, who was on a state visit to Finland on 12
November, said Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari had assured
him that the "de facto decision" on EU enlargement has
already been made and that it will take place in 2002 and
2003, TASR reported the same day. VG

BULGARIAN FOREIGN MINISTER VISITS SLOVAKIA. Nadezhda
Mikhailova and her Slovak counterpart, Eduard Kukan, met in
Bratislava on 12 November and signed an agreement on avoiding
double taxation. The two sides also discussed navigation on
the River Danube, which was disrupted during the NATO bombing
campaign against Yugoslavia earlier this year. They also
discussed nuclear energy, which is a key issue for both
countries in their efforts to integrate into the EU. Slovak
Deputy Prime Minister Pavol Hrusovsky said both countries
should cooperate at the governmental and parliamentary levels
to achieve their common goal of integration into the EU and
NATO, TASR reported. VG

SUMMIT OF ETHNIC HUNGARIANS REACHES COMPROMISE. A summit of
ethnic Hungarian groups in Budapest on 12 November approved a
document recommending that Hungarian law codify the status of
ethnic Hungarians living outside the country. The document
also states that the Hungarian government firmly supports
efforts by the Hungarian minority in the Serbian province of
Vojvodina to obtain autonomy. It stops short of demanding
that ethnic Hungarians who are citizens of other countries be
granted voting rights in Hungary. But Foreign Minister Janos
Martonyi said Hungarian citizens living abroad "should be
given voting rights, as that is not an ethnic or geographical
matter." Ethnic Hungarian leaders from Romania, Slovakia, and
Vojvodina supported the document. MSZ

SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

TRAJKOVSKI LEADING IN MACEDONIAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE.
Macedonian Premier Ljubco Georgijevski announced on state
television on 15 November that with 96 percent of the votes
counted, Deputy Foreign Minister Boris Trajkovski has won 53
percent of the vote, compared with 46 percent for his
challenger, Tito Petkovski, AFP reported. Petkovski conceded
that Trajkovski's 48,000-vote lead cannot be overcome.
Petkovski's spokesman, Nikola Popovski, charged that
widespread voter fraud had occurred in the western part of
the country, which is inhabited by mostly ethnic Albanians.
Trajkovski, candidate of the center-right government, said
his election offers a "historic chance" for him and the
country. No figures were available on turnout. If it falls
below 50 percent, then the election is declared invalid. PB

TUDJMAN REMAINS IN CRITICAL CONDITION. An official Croatian
medical communique reported on 14 November that President
Franjo Tudjman's condition had stabilized after fresh
surgery, Reuters reported. The statement said that
"difficulties in the digestive system have been removed."
Doctors had said on 12 November that the health of the
president, aged 77, was deteriorating after surgery two weeks
ago was complicated by peritonitis and internal bleeding.
Some Croatian dailies report the president's condition as
very grave. Some claim he is on a life-support system.
Tudjman's youngest son, Stjepan, said after leaving the
hospital that his father is in a better condition than is
being reported (see "End Note"). PB

CROATIA'S OPPOSITION CALLS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES. Drazen
Budisa, the leader of Croatia's opposition Social Liberals,
called for changes to be made to the country's constitution
to reduce President Tudjman's authority, AP reported, citing
Hina. Budisa said "the president has not been capable of
running the country for 10 days now, and we know how wide his
powers are." Parliamentary speaker Vlatko Pavletic of
Tudjman's Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) would act as
interim head of state if the president were to die or be
declared incapacitated. A presidential election would be held
within 60 days. The president's health caused the HDZ to
withdraw a motion to dissolve the parliament, allowing the
lower house to reconvene for emergencies until its mandate
expires on 27 November. PB

CROATIA TELLS HAGUE COURT IT IS NOT WELCOME. Justice Minister
Zvonimir Separovic said in a letter to Carla del Ponte, the
chief prosecutor of the international war crimes tribunal at
The Hague, that UN war crimes investigators are not welcome
in Croatia, AFP reported. The tribunal wants to send teams
into central Croatia to investigate alleged crimes against
ethnic Serbs committed during the 1991-1995 war. Separovic
said the tribunal has no jurisdiction over Croatia's military
operations against the Serbs. PB

UN PLANE CRASH IN KOSOVA KILLS ALL ABOARD. A UN plane
carrying officials from the organization's World Food Program
and a number of private humanitarian groups crashed into a
mountaintop near the Kosovar town of Mitrovica on 12
November, killing all 24 people onboard, Reuters reported.
KFOR commander General Klaus Reinhardt said there is no
indication as to the cause of the crash, but he noted that
weather conditions were extremely foggy. Most of those killed
were Italians. PB

ETHNIC ALBANIAN LEADER WARNS OF FAILURE BY WEST IN KOSOVA.
Veton Surroi, the publisher of the independent daily "Koha
Ditore," urged the West on 12 November to provide adequate
funds to shore up the police force and the judicial system in
the Serbian province, Reuters reported. Surroi, in an address
to NATO's Parliamentary Assembly in Amsterdam, said the
alliance's intervention in Kosova is at risk of failing if
certain needs are not met. He said "serious reconstruction"
has not begun and, that as a result, too many people are left
idle. Surroi, who has come under fire from hard-line ethnic
Albanians for his calls for tolerance toward Serbs, urged the
rapid creation of a judiciary system and the involvement of
Kosovar political parties in the running of the province. He
said the term "multiethnic society" is misunderstood by
ethnic Albanians as meaning the "forced cohabitation" that
was experienced under Serb rule. He said a "tolerant and just
society" would bring the same result. PB

SERBIAN OPPOSITION PARTIES CLAIM TO BE UNITED AGAINST
MILOSEVIC... Serbian opposition politicians pledged on 14
November to unite their efforts to force Yugoslav President
Slobodan Milosevic from power, Reuters reported. More than 50
leading opposition activists signed a declaration after a
three-day meeting in the Hungarian town of Szentendre that
states their main tasks are to form an alliance, oust the
current government, and hold free elections. The document
also called on the international community to immediately
lift sanctions against Serbia. The talks were organized by
Yugoslav Prince Aleksandar Karadjordjevic, who also announced
that he is willing to become king of Yugoslavia under a
constitutional monarchy. Alliance for Change leader Zoran
Djindjic attended the talks, as did the leader of the Serbian
Orthodox Church, Bishop Artemije. Serbian Renewal Movement
leader Vuk Draskovic did not attend, claiming he feared for
his safety. PB

...AS SERBIAN DIASPORA OFFERS CASH FOR HIS OUSTER. Prominent
Serbian expatriates from North America, Europe, and Australia
on 13 November offered to give Serbian opposition groups $1
million if they unite and remove President Milosevic from
office, AP reported. They also promised to provide access to
Western governments and technical advice to the opposition.
Opposition leader Zoran Djindjic said the money would be best
used to support independent media in Serbia. He said that
political parties "should renounce this money" so that it
could be given to "organizations which find it even harder to
survive in a very poor country." PB

MONTENEGRO PASSES AMNESTY FOR DRAFT DODGERS. The Montenegrin
parliament adopted a law on 12 November that grants amnesty
to anyone who defied orders to join the Yugoslav army during
the conflict in Kosova, Reuters reported. The measure was
passed unanimously after deputies from the Socialist People's
Party, which is loyal to Belgrade, walked out of the chamber.
The legislation covers the period from June 1998 to June of
this year. A Montenegrin deputy said that some 14,000 people
in Montenegro will gain amnesty from the legislation. In
other news, Montenegrin Justice Minister Dragan Soc confirmed
that Veselin Vlahovic, wanted for war crimes in Bosnia, is in
jail in Montenegro. The war crimes tribunal at The Hague has
given Bosnia the right to put him on trial in Sarajevo.
Bosnian officials said they will request Vlahovic's
extradition. PB

OFFICIALS AGREE TO FIGHT CORRUPTION, STEP UP SEARCHES IN
BOSNIA. U.S. and Bosnian officials agreed on 14 November to
form a commission that will monitor corruption in Bosnia-
Herzegovina, AP reported. The agreement was reached after two
days of talks in Dayton, Ohio. Bosnian officials also agreed
to allow more vigorous searches by NATO peacekeepers for
indicted war criminals hiding in Bosnia. PB

ALBANIAN, MACEDONIAN PREMIERS HAIL 'NEW BALKANS.' Ilir Meta
and his Macedonian counterpart, Ljubco Georgievski, held
talks in the southeastern Albanian town of Korce on 12
November, dpa reported. Meta said the two agreed they must
"work together for the creation of a new Balkans." Meta added
that the two countries are eager to make the stability pact
for southeastern Europe "a reality." Georgievski said the two
countries are working on a bilateral trade agreement and on
integrating infrastructure and communications systems. PB

ROMANIAN SOCCER OFFICIALS TO MONITOR ANTI-SEMITIC REMARKS.
Romanian Soccer Federation officials on 12 November decided
to monitor publications owned by the federation's vice
president, Dumitru Dragomir, to prevent him from printing
anti-Semitic remarks, AP reported. The federation was
reacting to a request from FIFA, the international soccer
association, which is contemplating a ban on all Romanian
soccer squads if Dumitru permits his publications to run any
more anti-Semitic or racist remarks. Dumitru's publications
have published such remarks in the past. For instance, one
article referred to government officials as "dirty Jews" and
"Gypsies." VG

ROMANIAN STEEL WORKERS PROTEST PRIVATIZATION. More than 1,500
employees of the Petrotrub steel pipe manufacturer blocked a
major road in northeastern Romania on 12 November to protest
the privatization of their company. The previous day, the
Gibraltar-based Tubman International Ltd. signed a deal with
the Romanian government to purchase a 70 percent stake in
Petrotrub for $42.6 million. The deal calls for Tubman to pay
off Petrotrub's debts of about $39 million and lay off about
1,500 of the company's 3,000 employees. VG

RUSSIA RESUMES WITHDRAWAL OF TROOPS FROM MOLDOVA. Russia on
13 November resumed withdrawing its troops from the breakaway
Transdniester region of Moldova, dpa reported. Russian
officials gave no indication as to how many troops or how
much military hardware will be moved out of the region.
Lieutenant-General Valerii Yevnevich told ITAR-TASS on 13
November that the military is loading the "first three of a
total of 13 convoys" on 13 November. He said the weapons that
are being moved could arm "a medium-sized army in Europe."
Russian newspapers noted that Moscow transferred anti-tank
rockets from Moldova to Chechnya during the last war there in
1995. The Russian Foreign Ministry said the OSCE is
monitoring the troop and weapon withdrawal from Moldova (see
also Part 1). VG

MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT APPOINTS NEW PREMIER. Petru Lucinschi on
12 November appointed Moldovan Ambassador to Russia Valeriu
Bobutac as prime minister. Bobutac replaces Ion Sturza, whose
government fell in a no-confidence vote on 9 November (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 9 November 1999). The new government,
which is to be formed by the Popular Front Christian
Democratic and the Communists, is to be named this week.
Lucinschi picked Bobutac because he was acceptable to both
parties. Bobutac served as trade minister from 1986 to 1988,
when Moldova was part of the former Soviet Union. He was
economic minister from 1992 to 1994 and again in 1997. The
president said the new prime minister should "fight
corruption and resume good relations with international
organizations." VG

END NOTE

CROATIA AFTER TUDJMAN

by Patrick Moore

	The critical state of President Franjo Tudjman's
health suggests Croatia will soon begin a new era. The
tasks facing the new leadership will include instituting
political change, promoting Euro-Atlantic integration, and
raising the standard of living.
	Tudjman is apparently losing his battle with
cancer, which has lasted at least three years. He would be
the first of the major figures in the dramatic events in
the former Yugoslavia this past decade to die in office. It
is ironic that the first of this small group likely to pass
on is Tudjman, a life-long athlete and non-smoker.
	Tudjman's legacy is likely to remain the subject
of controversy for a long time to come. To his supporters,
he has his place in history as the father of independence
and the man who "made Croatia." They argue that he alone
had the organizational skills, the contacts to wealthy
Croats in the diaspora, and the personal reputation as a
nationalist leader to perform three vital tasks: ousting
the Communists in the 1990 elections, winning independence
the following year, and defeating the ethnic Serb rebels in
1995.
	To his detractors, Tudjman will remain a tyrant
who should have left office long ago, at the very latest
following his defeat of the Serbs. A stiff man comfortable
only with his trusted inner circle, his military and
communist experiences made him authoritarian and intolerant
of differing views. His ego and obsession with the
trappings of power often made him the butt of jokes.
Tudjman may have been the right man to win independence,
his detractors would say, but he was not the one to build a
democratic, prosperous country integrated into Euro-
Atlantic institutions.
	In fact, post-Tudjman Croatia faces a wide array
of problems. The first question is the future of Tudjman's
governing Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ), which has
dominated politics for nearly a decade. It is the last of
the East European mass movements that emerged in the 1980s
to bring about the fall of communism. All the others--
including Solidarity in Poland and the Civic Forum in the
former Czechoslovakia--have broken up into ideologically-
based successor organizations. Many observers argue that
the time for the HDZ to do likewise is long overdue.
	They may not have long to wait. At least since
Tudjman first underwent cancer surgery in 1996, several
prominent subordinates have been jockeying for top
positions. These individuals might soon find themselves
heads of new political parties that would emerge from the
main factions of the HDZ. For example, Foreign Minister
Mate Granic might head a moderate party, while the deputy
speaker of the lower house of parliament, Vladimir Seks,
might lead a stringently nationalist organization.
Tudjman's aide Ivic Pasalic might become head of a grouping
of his fellow Herzegovinians, who form a very powerful
interest group in the HDZ.
	A second issue involves the future of the
opposition and its impact on the broader political scene.
One reason why the HDZ and Tudjman have held power for
nearly 10 years is the ineptitude of the fractious
opposition. The two leading opposition parties have formed
a coalition, and the four smaller ones have made a pact of
their own to fight the elections for the lower house on 22
December. The question is whether they will be able to
maintain unity of purpose in a post-Tudjman world. Some
observers suggest that the impending fragmentation of the
HDZ will lead to a totally new political landscape in which
individual factions of the HDZ will combine with what are
now opposition parties. Others fear that Tudjman's
departure will remove the common enemy to all opposition
parties and leave them fighting once again among
themselves. In such a scenario, the HDZ would continue to
hold on to power as before.
	This leads to a third issue stemming from the
Tudjman era, namely the democratization of political life.
Washington and Brussels have made it clear time and again
that electoral, minority, and media legislation will have
to be brought up to Western standards if Croatia is to
become integrated in Euro-Atlantic institutions.
Furthermore, Zagreb will have to respect all of its
obligations regarding the sovereignty and integrity of
Bosnia-Herzegovina under the 1995 Dayton peace accord.
Croatia, moreover, has a long way to go to raise its
standing in the West's estimation. In 1991, Croatia and
Slovenia both emerged as independent states. At present,
Slovenia seems well on the way to membership in the EU and
NATO, while Croatia has fallen behind even such poor Balkan
countries as Albania and Macedonia.
	This state of affairs is unacceptable to the
center and left portions of the political spectrum. One may
expect any government that they may eventually form to make
serious efforts to accommodate Croatia's Western friends on
democratization.
	A closely related issue is privatization. To the
extent that it has been carried out at all, it has chiefly
benefited people with close ties to the HDZ. There have
been loud calls from many sections of society for a
thorough investigation into this and other forms of
corruption. Furthermore, most Croats have to struggle to
make ends meet with monthly incomes of about $450 but with
prices on a German level. As far as the majority of the
population is concerned, the first priority of a post-
Tudjman leadership should be to raise the standard of
living, particularly for people with low or fixed incomes.

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