|Change is always powerful. Let your hook be always cast. In the pool where you least expect it, will be a fish. - Ovid|
RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 3, No. 160, Part II, 18 August 1999
________________________________________________________ RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 3, No. 160, Part II, 18 August 1999 A daily report of developments in Eastern and Southeastern Europe, Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia prepared by the staff of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. This is Part II, a compilation of news concerning Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. Part I covers Russia, Transcaucasia and Central Asia and is distributed simultaneously as a second document. Back issues of RFE/RL NewsLine and the OMRI Daily Digest are online at RFE/RL's Web site: http://www.rferl.org/newsline xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Headlines, Part II * POLISH MINERS THREATEN STRIKE OVER REFORM * SERBIAN GENERAL THREATENS CRACKDOWN * TORTURE CHAMBER DISCOVERED IN PRISHTINA'S GRAND HOTEL End Note: SERBIAN PROTESTS: WILL THIS TIME BE DIFFERENT? xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx EAST-CENTRAL EUROPE FORMER BELARUSIAN MINISTER SAYS HIS FATE ALREADY SEALED BY LUKASHENKA. The trial of former Agricultural Minister Vasil Lyavonau, who was arrested in 1997 on charges of corruption, began at the Supreme Court on 17 August. Lyavonau is charged with embezzlement, bribe-taking, exceeding his authority, organizing a criminal group, and owning illegal arms. He told the court that he does not believe in a fair trial because his fate has already been decided by President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. "I am innocent but I realize that this is of no significance for the judges because I am actually being tried by Lukashenka himself," Lyavonau said, adding that Lukashenka has publicly called him a criminal on at least two occasions. Lyavonau added that he wants to use the trial to record for posterity the absurdity of the charges brought against him. JM HALF OF MINSK RESIDENTS AGAINST BELARUSIAN-RUSSIAN UNION. A poll conducted by Belapan among 600 Minsk residents in mid-August showed that more than 51 percent of respondents would vote against the creation of a union state of Belarus and Russia if a referendum were held on the issue. Thirty-one percent would vote for the union state and 11 percent would abstain, while 7 percent said they were undecided. JM UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT BLAMES ECONOMIC WOES ON FOREIGN 'SHOCKS.' Leonid Kuchma on 17 August said Ukraine's economy is not sufficiently protected from "outside shocks," which cause economic instability in the country, AP reported. He cited acute gasoline shortages in Ukraine this summer as the latest example of such instability, adding that those shortages were provoked by world oil price hikes. The same day, the government reported that the country's economy shrank by 2.9 percent in January-July 1999, compared with the same period last year. Since Ukraine's independence in 1991, the country's economy has been in steady decline. JM UNEMPLOYMENT IN ESTONIA, LATVIA DECREASING. ETA reported on 17 August that the July unemployment rate in Estonia stood at 5 percent, down 0.6 percent from the previous month but up by more than 50 percent from July 1998. More than 57 percent of those looking for work are women, while nearly 20 percent are over the age of 50. Meanwhile, the Latvian National Employment Service reported that Latvia's July jobless rate was 9.9 percent, down by 0.1 percent from the previous month. MJZ FOREIGN TRADE SLUMP CONTINUES IN LATVIA, LITHUANIA. Lithuanian exports dropped 23.5 percent in the first half of this year, while imports decreased by 19.4 percent, according to ELTA on 17 August, citing Lithuanian Statistics Department data. In Latvia, the Central Statistics Administration announced that exports there were down by nearly 11 percent, while imports decreased by more than 13 percent, LETA reported the same day. Both countries blamed drastically reduced trade with Russia. MJZ LATVIAN GOVERNMENT APPROVES LASCO PRIVATIZATION PROCEDURES. The government on 17 August approved procedures for the long-delayed privatization of Latvian Shipping Company (LASCO), one of the world's largest shipping companies. According to these procedures, the authorities plan to sell 44 percent of the company to a strategic investor, with part of the proceeds being used to satisfy claims of employees at bankrupt state enterprises, BNS reported. LETA reported that the government will offer an additional 15 percent of LASCO to holders of privatization certificates, while reserving 6 percent for LASCO employees. Economics Minister Vladimirs Makarovs said LASCO's privatization should be completed by 1 September 2000. Privatization Agency head Janis Naglis predicted that the first-round auction could be completed by 1 December 1999. MJZ APPEALS COURT RULING MAY CHILL POLISH-LITHUANIAN RELATIONS. Following a 17 August ruling by the Lithuanian Appeals Court to extend the jail sentences of four ethnic Polish activists, three Polish Senators and a former head of that legislative body vowed to act to "cool off" Polish-Lithuanian relations, according to BNS and ELTA. Former Senate chairman Andrzej Stelmachowski, who now heads a society for relations with Poles abroad, said that the trial was "purely political" and therefore "we should take political actions in Poland itself." The activists, all officials of a Soviet-era local governing council, were found guilty of trying to create a Polish autonomous territory at the time Lithuania regained its independence. MJZ POLISH MINERS THREATEN STRIKE OVER REFORM. Poland's 12 coal mining unions have threatened to stage a two-hour warning strike on 30 August to protest the government's reform of their industry, Reuters and PAP reported on 17 August. The trade unions oppose the amendments to the 1998 reform program, which would speed up layoffs in the industry (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 August 1999). They demand negotiations with the government on the reform of the coal mining sector. "The mining reform carried out by [Jerzy] Buzek's government has collapsed. The proposed changes only aggravate the situation," Reuters quoted a trade union activist as saying. The 1998 reform envisaged closing down half the mines, cutting employment by 115,000 jobs, lowering coal output, and making the sector profitable in 2002. Such goals became unrealistic this year when the sector's losses amounted to 3.3 billion zlotys ($833 million), instead of the planned 1.3 billion zlotys. JM FORMER SLOVAK COMMUNIST LEADER TO BE AMNESTIED? Vasil Bilak, former chief ideologist of the Czechoslovak Communist Party, may be amnestied under a pardon issued by President Rudolf Schuster at his inauguration, SITA reported on 17 August. Bilak is eligible for the amnesty, which was granted to those over 65. Prosecutor-General Milan Hanzel said Bilak's case is being examined and that his office will make a recommendation to Schuster over whether Bilak should be amnestied. Bilak was indicted for breaching the peace and violating some economic laws. He has confessed to being among those who extended an "invitation" to Warsaw Pact countries to invade Czechoslovakia in 1968. MS AUTONOMOUS UNIVERSITY FACULTY FOR SLOVAK HUNGARIANS? Deputy Prime Minister Pal Csaky, who is in charge of minority issues in the Slovak cabinet, told the Hungarian daily "Magyar Hirlap" on 17 August that he is proposing the establishment of an autonomous Hungarian-language university department for the country's 600,000-strong ethnic Hungarian minority. He also said the Education Ministry has asked him to outline his ideas for training primary-school teachers and pastors for the country's ethnic Hungarian community. MS SLOVAK HUNGARIAN PARTY WARNS AGAINST REFERENDUM ON LANGUAGE LAW. Also on 17 August, Csaky warned that if President Schuster decides to call a referendum on the law on minority-language use in contacts with the authorities, Slovakia's "international credibility" will "suffer again," SITA reported. Csaky, who is deputy chairman of the Hungarian Coalition Party, said the referendum would contravene those provisions of the constitution prohibiting plebiscites on human rights issues as well as infringe international conventions. Two out of three teams of experts have advised Schuster not to call the plebiscite. The opposition Movement for a Democratic Slovakia warned that if he does not call such a vote, it will launch a petition in favor of early elections. MS OPPOSITION CRITICIZES HUNGARIAN FAR RIGHT. Balint Magyar, chairman of the opposition Free Democratic Party, warned on 17 August that the 20 August demonstration planned by the Justice and Life Party (MIEP) will endanger ethnic Hungarians living beyond the country's borders and harm Hungary's external relations. The demonstrators intend to express support for annexing a part of Vojvodina to Hungary. MIEP chairman Istvan Csurka said that ethnic Hungarians in Vojvodina cannot wait for democratic changes in Yugoslavia. He added that the area that MIEP wants annexed is "small even in Vojvodina terms" and that MIEP will continue its campaign to "show that the borders established in Trianon are no longer binding." MS HUNGARIAN OFFICIAL ON RELATIONS WITH MAGYARS ABROAD. Foreign Ministry State Secretary Zsolt Nemeth said in Debrecen on 16 August that a "key concern" of Budapest's foreign policy is to help Hungarians living abroad improve their situation and remain where they are. Nemeth noted that a Permanent Council of Hungarians was set up in February for this purpose and helped Vojvodina's Hungarians draft a blueprint for their demand for autonomy. MS HUNGARIAN PROSECUTOR-GENERAL ORDERS INQUIRY INTO ANTI- SEMITIC PUBLICATION. The Prosecutor-General's Office on 17 August launched an investigation into the recent publication of the "Protocols of the Elders of Zion," saying the book serves as a "propaganda tool inciting hatred against Jews," "Magyar Hirlap" reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 11 and 16 August 1999). The Federation of Jewish Religious Communities and the Association of Hungarian Book Publishers and Distributors welcomed the announcement. MS SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE SERBIAN GENERAL THREATENS CRACKDOWN. General Nebojsa Pavkovic, who commands the Nis-based Third Army, told Belgrade's "Glas javnosti" of 17 August that the army must intervene to separate opposing groups if that is necessary "to prevent civil war." He stressed that the army will not allow anyone to seize power "illegally." Pavkovic noted that the army's crackdown in March 1991 led to "human losses and destruction." But he stressed that the death and destruction would have been far worse had the army not intervened to put down demonstrations against Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic. Observers suggest that Pavkovic's remarks are a warning that the army may intervene again if there is politically- inspired violence in conjunction with the Yugoslavia- Croatia soccer match on 18 August or the opposition rally the following day. Both events are to take place in Belgrade. PM BELGRADE REGIME WARNS OPPONENTS... Yugoslav Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic told the parliament on 17 August that an unspecified "powerful, illegal, international movement" seeks to overthrow the "legally elected Yugoslav government." Telecommunications Minister Ivan Markovic of the hard-line United Yugoslav Left said that "the agents of terrorism in Serbia are not just the members of the so-called Kosova Liberation Army (UCK), but those gathered in the Alliance for Change." The alliance is one of the main sponsors of the 19 August demonstration. Elsewhere, the state-run daily "Politika" called unnamed members of the opposition "political midgets and losers." PM ...TAKES MEASURES AGAINST THEM. Seven policemen beat up and arrested artist Bogoljub Arsenijevic on 17 August in front of the Belgrade offices of former General Momcilo Perisic's Movement for Democratic Serbia. A spokesman for the movement criticized the police action and promised that "our lawyers will launch proper legal action" on Arsenijevic's behalf. The artist attracted public attention in July when he led a violent take-over of the town hall in Valjevo (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 July 1999). In Pancevo, the local Prosecutor's Office began an investigation into opposition leader Vesna Pesic's remarks at a recent rally in Vrsac, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 17 August. Pesic told the protesters that the Serbian people might get rid of Milosevic by using the "Romanian method" unless he goes voluntarily. Her remarks were an allusion to the violent overthrow of Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in December 1989. Top Serbian officials subsequently accused her of encouraging "terrorism" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 August 1999). PM BELGRADE DEMONSTRATION LOSING SUPPORT? Serbian Renewal Movement leader Vuk Draskovic said in Belgrade on 17 August that he will not attend the Belgrade demonstration but will be represented by his deputy instead. Draskovic did not give a clear reason for reversing his earlier decision to attend. He said only that he cannot "accept many many stupid ideas of [unspecified] irresponsible people," Reuters reported. He also suggested that he fears that the rally could turn violent, AP noted. Observers said that Draskovic is piqued because he was slated to speak only second. Shortly after Draskovic announced his decision not to attend, Alliance for Change leader Vladan Batic said that he will not address the gathering, the Frankfurt- based Serbian daily "Vesti" reported. It is unclear why, nor is it clear whether he plans to attend at all. PM YUGOSLAV PARLIAMENT CUTS IMPORT DUTIES. The federal legislature on 17 August approved significant cuts in the import taxes for cigarettes, alcoholic beverages, and used cars, "Danas" reported. At that same parliamentary session, Sports Minister Velizar Djeric denied rumors that his ministry bought up 22,000 out of a total of 70,000 tickets to the Yugoslavia-Croatia match. Critics had charged that the ministry sought to pack the stadium with Milosevic supporters. PM SERBIAN OPPOSITION LEADER BACKS MONTENEGRIN PLAN. Social Democratic leader Vuk Obradovic said that the Serbian opposition finds Montenegro's proposal for redefining relations between the two republics "basically acceptable" (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 10 August 1999). He added, however, that Montenegrin officials would be "wasting their time" if they tried to negotiate the plan with Milosevic, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported from Podgorica on 17 August. Obradovic stressed that this is the view of most opposition parties in Serbia. PM EU PREPARING TO END SANCTIONS AGAINST KOSOVA, MONTENEGRO. A spokesman for the EU Presidency, which is currently held by Finland, said in Brussels on 17 August that EU officials will lift economic sanctions against Kosova and Montenegro "soon." He added that experts are studying ways to make sure that Milosevic and the Serbian authorities do not benefit from the move, Reuters reported. One key problem is preventing Montenegrin oil imports from reaching Serbia. Another is ensuring that Serbia's JAT airlines does not profit from the reopening of flights from EU countries to Montenegro's two airports. PM LOCAL SERBIAN LEADER DENIES BREAKTHROUGH IN MITROVICA. Oliver Ivanovic, who is the leader of Mitrovica's Serbs on the city's UN-chaired interim council, denied on 17 August that Serbs and Albanians in the city have agreed on a plan to end the division of the city, AP reported. The previous day, Bajram Rexhepi, who is Ivanovic's counterpart in the Albanian-dominated south of the city, reported that both sides agreed on the return of 25 Albanian families per day to the north. Ivanovic, however, stressed that "relentless Albanian onslaughts on the Ibar River bridge [which divides the two parts of the city] are very dangerous." He referred to several recent incidents in which local Albanians seeking to return to their homes in the north clashed with French troops who were blocking the bridge. FS ANOTHER GRENADE ATTACK AGAINST SERBS IN GJILAN. Unidentified attackers wounded three Serbs in Gjilan on 17 August, AP reported. It was the second grenade attack against the Serbian community in that region within two days (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 August 1999). The same day, Russia charged Western countries with "turning a blind eye" to attacks against Serbs (see Part I). FS TORTURE CHAMBER DISCOVERED IN PRISHTINA'S GRAND HOTEL. The Prishtina daily "Rilindja" reported on 17 August that the staff of the Grand Hotel has discovered two prison cells and a torture chamber in an underground building belonging to the hotel. The daily added that the employees found women's clothes and lists containing the names of unspecified students, an RFE/RL South Slavic Service correspondent reported. During the recent conflict, journalists reported that Serbian paramilitaries used the building as their command center. Many foreign journalists stayed at the hotel, which also housed the regime's media center. International war crimes investigators have started investigations. FS UN LAUNCHES PRISHTINA CLEAN-UP CAMPAIGN. UN Special Representative Bernard Kouchner launched a municipal clean-up campaign in Prishtina on 17 August, Reuters reported. Kouchner said that since the war "all over the place in the city garbage was...disposed [of in a way that poses a] real danger for public health." He added, however: "We are confident that through this project, we'll be able to make Prishtina a clean and beautiful city." The initiative, called "I love my city Prishtina," is the beginning of a larger cleanup project for the whole of Kosova, which is jointly financed by the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and the UN Development Program. It receives substantial technical support from KFOR and employs 330 locals. FS MAJKO WANTS 'PAN-ALBANIAN EDUCATION SYSTEM.' Albanian Prime Minister Pandeli Majko has urged Education Minister Ethem Ruka to draw up plans to unify education in Albanian language in Albania, Kosova, and Macedonia and intensify cooperation between the universities of Tirana and Prishtina, Reuters reported on 17 August. He said that "it is time to talk about [creating] a unified strategy for education in Albanian wherever Albanians live in the Balkans." Majko stressed that "this is...a turning point to make the biggest investment for the future of the Albanian community in the Balkans," adding that first steps should include an exchange of teachers and professors. Majko argued that "Albanians should read the same history because we are part of the same history. Now it is time for us Albanians in the Balkans to make history." FS IZETBEGOVIC SLAMS FRAUD CHARGE. Bosnian Muslim leader Alija Izetbegovic called a "New York Times" report on massive fraud in his republic "lies." He charged that the article constitutes an attempt to discredit his government and deter foreigners from investing in Bosnia, "Oslobodjenje" reported on 18 August (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 August 1999). Izetbegovic issued a statement rebutting several specific charges of fraud cited in the article. In Washington, a State Department spokesman noted that "U.S. government assistance has not been misused or abused to the best of our knowledge." VOA's Croatian Service reported that the embezzled funds amount to 20 percent of all public money in Bosnia. In Sarajevo, a spokeswoman for the office of the international community's high representative said the "lost" money probably totals more than $1 billion. PM SACKED CROATIAN MINISTER BLAMES TOP LEADERS. Zeljko Luzavec, whom President Franjo Tudjman recently fired as minister of transportation, maritime affairs, and communications, has blamed several top officials for his demise (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 August 1999). Luzavec singled out Ivic Pasalic, who is Tudjman's top adviser, as well as Deputy Prime Minister Ljerka Mintas-Hodak and Reconstruction Minister Jure Radic, "Novi List" reported on 18 August. Luzavec charged he was the victim of a "palace coup" aimed at covering up evidence of mismanagement of the bankrupt shipping company Croatia Line (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 17 August 1999). PM DEMOCRATIC PARTY LEADER TO RUN FOR ROMANIAN PRESIDENCY. Petre Roman told a 17 August meeting of the Democratic Party in Targu Mures that he will run for president in 2000, an RFE/RL correspondent in the Transylvanian town reported. Roman, who is leader of the party, said the Democrats will not participate in any election alliances formed for the 2000 parliamentary elections, adding that after the ballot they will agree to participate in a government coalition only if it is set up on the basis of a "clear joint program" and not for "the sake of power alone." One day earlier, Roman said the Democrats are ready for "a dialogue" with the opposition Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR), provided the PDSR "seriously reforms its political philosophy." PDSR deputy chairwoman Hildegard Puwak on 17 August responded that her party welcomes a dialogue but rejects Roman's conditions. MS ROMANIA'S HUNGARIAN CHURCH TO SET UP PRIVATE UNIVERSITY. Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania honorary chairman Bishop Laszlo Tokes, addressing a forum of the Ady Endre Academy in Debrecen, Hungary, on 16 August, said that a Hungarian-language high school in Oradea will be transformed in September into a private ecclesiastic university for the Hungarian minority, Romanian Radio reported the next day. Tokes said that in 2000 the new university, to be called the Partium Christian University, will set up branches "in all of Transylvania." MS MOLDOVAN COMMISSION RECOMMENDS CHANGING DESIGNATION OF OFFICIAL LANGUAGE. The Republican Commission overseeing the implementation of the law on the official state language has recommended that the official designation of that language be changed from "Moldovan" to "Romanian," RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported on 17 August. The recommendation will be submitted to the government and later to the parliament. The commission said that the 1994 decision to opt for "Moldovan" was prompted by " political considerations that ignored the opinion of experts from Moldova and abroad." The mentioning of "Moldovan" in the country's constitution must be changed accordingly, the commission says. MS BULGARIA'S KOZLODUY REACTOR SHUT DOWN. Reactor No. 2 at the aging nuclear power plant at Kozloduy was shut down on 16 August following a non-radioactive water leak, Reuters reported. A spokeswoman for the plant said the leak did not affect the plant's safety and that the unit will be shut down until 27 August for repairs. MS END NOTE SERBIAN PROTESTS: WILL THIS TIME BE DIFFERENT? By Christopher Walker The mass protest scheduled to take place on 19 August in Belgrade will be the third in a series of demonstration waves that the Serbian opposition has staged since the beginning of this decade. On the two previous occasions--in 1991 and in the winter of 1996- 1997--ordinary Serbs took to the streets to vent their frustrations with the miserable state of affairs in their country. But to date, each protest wave has fallen short, with the opposition unable to achieve the crucial precondition for setting Serbia's reform process in motion: Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's removal from power. The earlier protest campaigns failed owing to a variety of reasons, including a fragmented opposition, a passive, exhausted Serbian population, deft political maneuvering by Milosevic, and the manipulation of Serbs through tight control over state-run media. In addition, Milosevic has been the beneficiary of short-sighted Western policies that have allowed him, among other things, to convince his electorate that the West--and the U.S. in particular--is the villain and Serbia the victim. Thus while it is encouraging that the opposition is once again working to muster an organized effort against the status quo, its ability to effect a leadership change in Belgrade is questionable. In the two months since the cessation of hostilities between Serbian forces and those of NATO and the Kosova Liberation Army, there have been small, spontaneous pockets of protests throughout Serbia. The round of demonstrations scheduled to begin on 19 August will be the first broad, organized effort to pressure the Milosevic regime since the winter of 1996-1997. At that time, tens of thousands of Serbs marched to protest the annulment of the results of municipal elections that Milosevic's Socialist Party had lost. While Milosevic's extralegal action served as a catalyst for the demonstrations, a host of other chronic problems in Serbian society--including a very sick economy-- kept protesters on the streets every day over three months. Ultimately, Milosevic reversed the annulment but otherwise paid only lip service to the key opposition demands for reform. As was the case in the earlier rounds of protests, the planned demonstrations starting this week will feature the participation of two main opposition figures: Democratic Party leader Zoran Djindjic and Vuk Draskovic, the controversial head of the Serbian Reform Movement, who served in Milosevic's government until his dismissal during the conflict with NATO. Both Djindjic and Draskovic are calling for a transitional government but have not agreed on a blueprint for achieving this goal. While Djindjic is seeking Milosevic's unconditional departure from power, Draskovic has indicated he prefers some sort of power- sharing arrangement with the Yugoslav leader. Whether the two opposition leaders will be able to work together to mount a successful challenge to Milosevic and then orient Serbia's policies toward the West is an open question. The challenge for the opposition has always been formidable, but post-Kosova politics in Serbia may make the task even more difficult. During the two previous rounds of major protest activity, the opposition was able to associate itself with the values of the West, including calls for deeper integration into and cooperation with Western institutions. As a variation on the "divide and conquer tactic" so often used by Milosevic, Serbian advocates of cooperation with the West face the prospect of being branded as "traitors against Serbia" or "lackeys for NATO." Democratic Party leader Djindjic, who fled to Montenegro during the Kosova conflict, is the best known of those labeled an agent of Western interests. As a result, proposing closer ties to the West as an important part of any prospective reform program may not be a winning message with many Serbs. The shift from pre-Kosova discourse, in which it was normal to view the West as a desired partner, to the more ambiguous post- Kosova climate, raises questions about the direction Serbian politics will take in the post-Milosevic era, whenever it arrives. Other key institutions in Serbia have not made their intentions fully clear with respect to the country's leadership. The Serbian armed forces, considered by the rest of the world to have suffered overwhelming losses during its conflict with NATO, seem to have weathered the storm by having resourcefully squirreled away much of their crucial weaponry during the conflict. Despite some rumblings in the immediate aftermath of the war, the military--a conservative institution not easily disposed to changing the existing order--has not made any bid to alter the current leadership. The Serbian Orthodox Church, for its part, has sent mixed signals. While it has decided not to take part in the opposition-led demonstration this week, Church leaders have publicly appealed for the resignation of Milosevic and Serbian President Milan Milutinovic, both of whom are indicted war criminals. For Serbia--as well as the rest of the world--there is no more to be learned or gained from Milosevic's leadership. If 12 years ago someone had scripted a worst-case scenario for his rule, it would have been difficult to imagine one as tragic as today's reality. The latest cycle of protest in Serbia will be viewed as a success only if it achieves the goal of removing Milosevic, thereby distinguishing itself from previous efforts. The author is a New York-based analyst specializing in East European affairs (firstname.lastname@example.org). xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Copyright (c) 1999 RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx HOW TO SUBSCRIBE Send an email to email@example.com with the word subscribe as the subject of the message. HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE Send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org with the word unsubscribe as the subject of the message. 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