Те, которые дают советы, не сопровождая их примерами, походят на дорожные столбы, которые дорогу указывают, но сами по ней не ходят. - А. Ривароль
RFE/RL NEWSLINE

RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 3, No. 124, Part I, 25 June 1999


________________________________________________________
RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 3, No. 124, Part I, 25 June 1999

A daily report of developments in Eastern and
Southeastern Europe, Russia, the Caucasus and Central
Asia prepared by the staff of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty.

This is Part I, a compilation of news concerning Russia,
Transcaucasia and Central Asia. Part II covers Central,
Eastern, and Southeastern Europe and is distributed
simultaneously as a second document.  Back issues of
RFE/RL NewsLine and the OMRI Daily Digest are online at
RFE/RL's Web site: http://www.rferl.org/newsline

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Headlines, Part I

* FEDERATION COUNCIL APPROVES RUSSIAN PEACEKEEPERS

* NEW IMF TALKS SLATED FOR END JUNE

* OSCE MONITORS KARABAKH FRONT LINE

END NOTE: A Kosova Balance Sheet
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

RUSSIA

FEDERATION COUNCIL APPROVES RUSSIAN PEACEKEEPERS. A total of
126 senators in the Federation Council voted in favor of
Russian participation in the Kosova peacekeeping force (KFOR)
in Moscow on 25 June. An additional 32 senators who were
absent gave their support in writing. No senator voted
against and three abstained from the vote after closed-door
hearings, Reuters reported. Oleg Korolyov, the chamber's
deputy speaker, said the deployment is necessary to help
preserve Yugoslavia's territorial integrity and to ensure
stability in that part of Europe, AP reported. Other
lawmakers objected that Russian KFOR commanders will be
junior to NATO commanders. Tatarstan's President Mintimer
Shaimiev argued that the Russian troops will be "incapable of
radically influencing the situation." FS

WHAT IS LEFT FOR RUSSIA IN UNMIK? President Boris Yeltsin
told UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan in Moscow on 24 June
that Russia wants to participate actively in both
peacekeeping and civil administration efforts in Kosova, AP
reported. It remains unclear, however, what position
Russian officials will hold in the UN Mission in Kosovo
(UNMIK). With the appointment of Daan Everts of the
Netherlands as OSCE representative in Kosova (see Part II,)
all four positions for deputies to the UN representative
have been filled. Annan has not yet appointed a permanent
head of UNMIK. FS

IVANOV SAYS YELTSIN, ANNAN WANT 'MULTI-POLAR-WORLD.'
Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told Interfax that Yeltsin and
Annan agreed that "a multi-polar world model must be
enhanced. [...] It is the only right way to ensure security
and stability in Europe, and it meets the interests of all
countries, the large and small ones." Observers noted that
"multi-polar" is a favorite catchphrase of Russian
diplomats, who resent what they see as U.S. efforts to
dominate the new world order. Ivanov added that both men
agreed that "a new world order must be built on respect for
international laws and a strengthening of the UN's role."
FS

CHERNOMYRDIN WANTS WEST TO PAY FOR YUGOSLAV WAR DAMAGE.
"Segodnya" of 24 June quoted Russian special envoy to
Yugoslavia Viktor Chernomyrdin as saying in Strasbourg on 23
June that Russia is ready to help Yugoslavia restore its
economy, but that "it must be done at the expense of those
who bombed the country." Chernomyrdin added that Yugoslav
President Slobodan "Milosevic was elected by the population
of Yugoslavia and nobody but the citizens of Yugoslavia can
dismiss him. As for Russia, it will not interfere." In other
news, Aeroflot resumed flights to Belgrade on 25 June after
Hungarian officials approved an air corridor, Reuters
reported. Aeroflot suspended flights to Belgrade on 26 March.
Jugoslovenski Aerotransport (JAT) resumed international
flights the same day. FS

DUMA APPROVES FUNDING FOR NUCLEAR FORCES. The State Duma
passed a law on funding Russia's Strategic Nuclear Forces
until 2010, "Izvestiya" reported on 25 June. According to the
daily, the law "restores some semblance of financial order to
the Strategic Nuclear Forces" by requiring the Finance
Ministry to transfer the forces' funds to the Nuclear Energy
and Defense ministries every three months. It also prohibits
the government from using budget funds allocated for the
forces to repay debts. Duma Defense Committee Chairman Roman
Popkovich said earlier that it was essential to pass this
bill before the Duma could start addressing the issue of
ratifying the START-II treaty. The Duma is scheduled to deal
with the treaty's ratification during its first fall session
after the summer break (see "RFE/RL Newsline" 21 June 1999).
JAC

MILITARY CONTEMPLATING MORE DOCTRINE CHANGES. Colonel-General
Yurii Baluyevskii, first deputy head of the Armed Forces'
chief of staff, said on 24 June that Russia's national
security concept and military doctrine may undergo changes as
a result of the large military exercises being conducted from
21-26 June in Kaliningrad, the Baltic Sea, and other areas.
He added that "it may take a year to analyze in detail and
process all the data." He also said that a single air defense
system for the joint Russian-Belarusian military grouping was
developed within the framework of the exercises. Defense
Minister Marshall Igor Sergeev said the previous day that the
exercises will pay particular attention to cooperation
between Russian and Belarusian troops in countering
aggression from the West. Sergeev told Interfax a Russian-
Belarusian command system "must certainly be worked out." JAC

SLIGHT CHILL STILL AFFECTING U.S.-RUSSIA RELATIONS? The
government newspaper, "Rossiiskaya Gazeta," on 25 June quoted
U.S. President Bill Clinton as saying in Skopje that "NATO
could repeat an operation similar to the Yugoslav one
'anywhere else tomorrow, in Africa or Central Europe.'" It
argued that Clinton's statement means that "henceforth the
U.S. will assume the role of a world police officer who will
use force when it wants without heed to any UN organizations
or security councils." The daily argued that other countries
will respond to Washington with an arms race in all types of
weaponry, including weapons of mass destruction. The previous
day, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported that "it is now common to
discuss where Washington will arrange the next Yugoslavia.
The three spots most commonly named are Belarus, Kashmir, and
the Korean peninsula." The daily cautioned that Russia should
listen attentively to Washington's announcements, arguing
that "key words such as 'humanitarian catastrophe'" are
"omens of bloodshed." JAC

NEW IMF TALKS SLATED FOR END JUNE... Prime Minister Sergei
Stepashin will hold talks in Moscow with a new IMF mission on
30 June, Interfax reported on 24 June. First Deputy Prime
Minister Viktor Khristenko predicted the previous day that
"if all goes well, we can expect IMF funds by the end of
July." State Duma Budget Committee Chairman Aleksandr Zhukov
was also optimistic, noting that Duma deputies had rejected
only one bill from the government's IMF-inspired package of
legislation. On 24 June, Duma deputies passed a series of
laws on restructuring credit organizations and imposing a tax
on luxury vehicles (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 June 1999). JAC

...AS LEGISLATION PASSES TO THE UPPER CHAMBER. The IMF's
permanent representative in Moscow, Martin Gilman, on 24 June
said the IMF places strong emphasis on the Federation
Council's approval of the legislation, Interfax reported.
Commenting on the recent agreement between the government and
the country's energy and rail enterprises on capping prices,
Gilman told the upper chamber's budget committee that such
controls could result in economic disaster and would be
impossible to implement under current legislation, Interfax
reported. Federation Council Budget Committee Chairman
Konstantin Titov said the previous day that he does not
support any new taxes or tax hikes, because "we still have
not collected on the old taxes." Titov, who is the informal
leader of the Golos Rossii (Voice of Russia) movement, added
that the IMF is not insisting that Russia introduce new taxes
but rather that budget revenues be large enough to cover
expenditures. JAC

NEW CHUNK OF LUKOIL UP FOR GRABS. State Property Committee
Chairman Farit Gazizullin announced on 24 June that an
investment tender for a 9 percent stake in LUKoil will soon
be announced, Interfax reported. According to Gazizullin, the
shares will be sold in a single lot. The government currently
holds a 26.6 percent stake in the company. JAC

KIROV REGION IMPOSES PRICE CONTROLS ON FOOD... The Kirov
Oblast legislative assembly voted on 24 June to allow the
oblast's administration to impose price controls on certain
food products, industrial goods, and services, "EWI's Russian
Regional Report" reported that day. Kirov is the third region
in Russia, after Khabarovsk Krai and Tyumen Oblast, to impose
price regulations on food, according to Nikolai Garyaev,
chairman of the Kirov Oblast administration's committee for
price policy. Among the goods and services now governed by
price controls are rental housing, heating, hot and cold
water, sewer services, and public transportation. JAC

...AS KEMEROVO OBLAST OFFICIALS FEAR BREAD CRISIS. Kemerovo
Oblast authorities are trying to prevent a "bread crisis,"
which has been looming since a recent increase in the price
of bread, "Izvestiya" reported on 22 June. According to the
daily, the population has been buying up bread and making
rusks out of fear of another increase. The problems started
on 15 June when the price of bread rose 15 percent. After
that, the oblast administration started issuing monthly
"bread chervonets" or 10 rubles (41 cents) to 208,000 of the
region's poorest residents as compensation. JAC

NEW SPORTS TSAR NAMED. President Boris Yeltsin on 24 June
appointed Boris Ivanyuzhenkov to the post of sports minister.
Ivanyuzhenkov is a former wrestling coach. His predecessor at
the ministry left following accusations in the press of
misusing government funds. In other news, the former deputy
chief of the presidential administration, Oleg Sysuev, will
join Alfa Bank as a supervisor of its regional subsidiaries,
Interfax reported. Yeltsin accepted Sysuev's resignation from
the presidential administration this week, after a long
delay. JAC

RUSSIA CONCERNED THAT CIS BORDERS NOT ADEQUATELY GUARDED.
Lieutenant-General Aleksandr Manilov, who heads the
International Treaties department of Russia's Federal Border
Service, said in Moscow on 24 June that "polarization" within
the CIS may weaken security along the borders of the CIS,
Interfax reported. Manilov mentioned the creation of
alternative alliances such as that between Georgia, Ukraine,
Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova, as an example of this
trend. He said that almost all those CIS states that have
scrapped agreements on jointly guarding their borders with
Russian forces will find it difficult to train the personnel
and acquire the equipment to do so on their own. Russian
border guards are already withdrawing from Georgia, and
Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan have both announced that they
intend to take over full responsibility for guarding their
own frontiers. Turkey and the U.S. are helping Georgia train
and equip its own border troops. LF

DUMA SPEAKER MEETS WITH CHECHEN COUNTERPART. Gennadii
Seleznev and Ruslan Alikhadzhiev met "unofficially" for the
first time in Moscow on 24 June, ITAR-TASS reported. The two
men discussed preparations for a planned meeting between
President Boris Yeltsin and his Chechen counterpart, Aslan
Maskhadov. Seleznev said preparations for the meeting are
continuing, but he declined to specify when it might take
place. He also said he hopes the Duma's Committee for
Nationalities will help to ensure regular contacts between
Russian and Chechen legislators. In Grozny on 24 June,
Maskhadov named national guard commander Magomed Khambiev to
head the newly-created defense ministry, Interfax reported.
LF

TRANSCAUCASIA AND CENTRAL ASIA

OSCE MONITORS KARABAKH FRONT LINE. OSCE officials inspected
the Mardakert section of the Line of Contact between Armenian
and Azerbaijani forces of Karabakh on 24 June, an RFE/RL
correspondent in Stepanakert reported. Mardakert was the
scene of a three-hour exchange of fire between the two sides
on 14 June in which two Azerbaijanis were killed and four
injured. Each side accused the other of starting the fight
(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 June 1999). One of the OSCE
officials subsequently told RFE/RL that fighting had indeed
taken place on 14 June, but that it did not involve 300
Armenian troops as Baku had claimed. The official declined to
specify which side was to blame for the fighting. But the
OSCE observers did confirm that the Azerbaijani front line
has been moved forward by 400-500 meters. LF

NKR PRESIDENT SACKS PREMIER, GOVERNMENT. Arkadii Ghukasian,
president of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic,
dismissed Prime Minister Zhirayr Poghosian and his cabinet on
24 June, RFE/RL's Stepanakert correspondent reported.
Ghukasian criticized the government's performance in the
economic, health, and social sectors as well as its tax
policy, according to Noyan Tapan. He said that the
government's failures in those spheres were eroding the
population's trust in the enclave's leadership. Ghukasian
will assume the role of acting prime minister and a new
cabinet will be formed soon. During the first four months of
1999, the volume of industrial output in the NKR grew by 2.5
percent compared with 1998. Production in the state sector
fell by 5.2 percent but grew in the private sector by 33.3
percent, Noyan Tapan reported on 17 June. LF

GEORGIA TO PROPOSE NEW ABKHAZ SETTLEMENT PLAN? Georgian
Foreign Minister Irakli Menagharishvili said in Tbilisi on 24
June that President Eduard Shevardnadze may propose new
measures for resolving the Abkhaz conflict if there is no
progress in settling the dispute within the next two to three
months, ITAR-TASS reported. He declined to specify what those
proposals might entail but added that during 22 June talks
with the EU in Luxembourg, Shevardnadze had also proposed
that an international conference be convened on Abkhazia.
Menagharishvili also criticized the CIS peacekeeping force,
which has been deployed along the internal border between
Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia since June 1994. He said the
CIS troops had failed either to prevent the large-scale
fighting in southern Abkhazia in May 1998 or to create secure
conditions for displaced persons within Georgia to return to
their abandoned homes in Abkhazia. LF

KAZAKH PARLIAMENT, CABINET STILL AT ODDS... Kazakh Prime
Minister Nurlan Balghymbaev told parliament deputies on 24
June that his cabinet will make every effort to curb
inflation and the budget deficit, although the latter task
may prove difficult, Interfax reported. He criticized the
parliament's opposition to further budget cuts as "populist."
Earlier on 24 June, the parliament narrowly failed to achieve
the two-thirds vote required to pass a vote of no confidence
in the government. Balghymbaev had called for such a vote on
21 June after the parliament rejected the proposed budget
cuts, which are now considered passed (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"
24 June 1999). But Marat Ospanov, speaker of the lower house
of parliament, argued on 24 June that Balghymbaev's economic
policy is inefficient, noting that pension and wage arrears
have multiplied since his appointment as prime minister in
the fall of 1997. Ospanov said the prime minister's policy of
issuing securities to cover the budget deficit is doomed to
failure. LF

...AS INDUSTRIAL LOBBY SEEKS TO PROTECT OWN INTERESTS. In the
wake of the 24 June no confidence vote, five deputies from
the lower and one senator from the upper house of parliament
announced that they are joining the Civic Party of
Kazakhstan, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported on 25 June. The
parliamentarians - all of whom represent regions with strong
industrial bases - said that party is the only organization
capable of defending the interests of local industrialists
and investors as well as workers at industrial enterprises.
The party has some 50,000 members. Unlike the pro-government
OTAN party, the Civic Party had opposed replacing
Balghymbaev's cabinet, arguing that a government crisis would
only exacerbate the country's economic difficulties. LF

KAZAKH NEWSPAPER FORCED TO CEASE PUBLICATION. The editor and
deputy editor of the Russian-language newspaper "Nachnem s
ponedelnika" said in Almaty on 24 June that the paper must
close for financial reasons, RFE/RL correspondents in the
former capital reported. The paper's bank account was frozen
on orders from the Almaty City Justice Department earlier
this year after Marat Oqshibayev, the head of the Almaty
Metrostroy Joint Stock Company, demanded 50 million tenges
(approximately $308,000) in compensation for "moral damage"
caused by articles the paper had published. The editors
described the ruling as an attack on the free press. The
previous day, Yevgenii Kosenko, a journalist working for the
recently founded paper "Vremya," was heavily beaten by
unidentified assailants outside his home in Almaty. Kosenko
has been writing on the problems of private gasoline stations
in Almaty. LF

FOUR CENTRAL ASIAN PRESIDENTS MEET IN KYRGYZSTAN. The
presidents of the four member-states of the Central Asian
Union - Kazakhstan's Nursultan Nazarbaev, Kyrgyzstan's Askar
Akaev, Uzbekistan's Islam Karimov and Tajikistan's Imomali
Rakhmonov - met outside Bishkek on 24 June, RFE/RL's bureau
in the Kyrgyz capital reported. According to a joint
declaration issued after the summit, the four presidents
agreed on strengthening economic cooperation between their
countries and on taking "practical steps" to form a common
Central Asian economic space that would include a free trade
zone and a common market for goods, services, and capital. As
expected, the presidents also agreed to extend the term of
the rotating presidency of the union, which is currently held
by Kyrgyzstan, from one year to two years. They also granted
Georgia and Turkey observer status in the union. However,
Ukraine did not receive such status although it was
reportedly seeking it (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 June 1999).
LF

ANOTHER KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT DEPUTY ARRESTED. Marat Kalmurzaev,
who is president of the Kyrgyzbusiness private company, was
arrested in Bishkek late on 23 June, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau
reported the following day. He is suspected of embezzlement,
abuse of power, and tax evasion between 1996-1998, resulting
in losses to the state of approximately 8,906,000 million som
(about $200,000). According to Deputy Interior Minister
Kurmanbek Kubatbekov, six earlier attempts to arrest
Kalmurzaev failed because parliament refused to lift his
parliamentary immunity from prosecution. LF

TURKMEN PRESIDENT MEETS WITH U.S. OFFICIALS. Saparmurat
Niyazov held talks in Ashgabat on 24 June with outgoing U.S.
special envoy for Caspian energy issues Richard Morningstar
and his successor, John Stern Wolf, Interfax reported. Wolf
said after the talks that the U.S. will continue to support
plans for the construction of an under-water Trans-Caspian
pipeline for the export of Turkmen gas. Morningstar said
Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are "much closer" than they were
one year ago to resolving their dispute over the delimitation
of their respective sectors of the Caspian Sea and ownership
of several offshore oilfields. The dispute has been blamed
for delaying implementation of the Trans-Caspian pipeline
project. Last month, the U.S. proposed a compromise solution
to both Baku and Ashgabat (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 May
1999). LF

UZBEK PRESIDENT ADVOCATES JOINT ASSISTANCE FOR TAJIKISTAN.
Speaking at the Central Asian Union summit in Bishkek on 24
June, Islam Karimov said other Central Asian states should
work together to promote a rapprochement between the Tajik
government and opposition, AP and Interfax reported. He said
that efforts by unnamed "individual forces" to build an
Islamic state in Tajikistan run counter to the interests of
other countries of the region. LF

JAPAN SUPPORTS FOOD PRODUCTION IN UZBEKISTAN. The Japanese
government has allocated 470 million yen ($3.85 million) to
subsidize rice production in two regions of Uzbekistan,
Interfax reported on 24 June. LF

END NOTE

A Kosova Balance Sheet

by Patrick Moore

	"That's what you get when you treat a third-rate power
like a first-rate one--and it decides to act accordingly."
Such was the comment of one Western observer of the Moscow
scene, reacting to Russia's recent move to occupy Prishtina
airport before NATO could get its troops into Kosova. At the
airport, one man identified only as "General Igor" gleefully
told London's "The Independent on Sunday": "I'll be here for
years."
	An agreement regulating Russia's role came later, after
days of painstaking negotiations. One suspects that it could
have been reached a lot sooner were it not for Moscow's
desire to savor its coup-on-the-ground and drag the talks out
accordingly.
	The Russian troops arrived from Bosnia-Herzegovina,
where they were part of SFOR, formerly known as IFOR or
UNPROFOR. They were there partly because of Russia's
longstanding desire to serve notice that it remains a great
power, at least as far as the Balkans are concerned. But they
were also there partly because of a Western desire to involve
Russian troops in the peacekeeping effort.
	Part of the irony in this is that the cornerstone of
Western policy for decades had been to keep Soviet or Russian
ground troops out of the Balkans. Now, 200 paratroopers left
their NATO-supervised peacekeeping posts in Bosnia to elbow
in on Kosova.
	Whatever happens, General Igor and his friends will not
have their own zone of occupation, at least under the current
arrangements. Many observers had feared that any Russian zone
would turn into a local version of the ethnically-cleansed
Republika Srpska, which would attract the province's Serbs to
settle but would not welcome ethnic Albanians.
	Meanwhile, the Kosovars have been coming home in droves
despite the dangers of landmines (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report,"
No. 24). On the military side, NATO now has a document from
the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) in which the guerrillas
pledge to demilitarize and partially disarm according to a
fixed time table.
	It is too early to tell whether the UCK will stick to
its word. But perhaps the most disturbing phenomenon on the
ground involves continuing reports from various parts of
Kosova regarding attacks on Serbian civilians, abandoned
Serbian property, and Serbian cultural monuments, including
historic churches. The big question is whether these are
isolated acts of revenge or something more sinister.
	On the diplomatic front, three young prime ministers
have shown a willingness to look forward and stress
reconstruction and regional cooperation. Macedonia's Ljubco
Georgievski, Albania's Pandeli Majko, and Hashim Thaci of the
UCK's provisional government are political products of the
1990s. (And when considering those who belong to the new
generation of Balkan leaders, one might also add Montenegrin
President Milo Djukanovic and Macedonian Albanian leader
Arben Xhaferi.)
	Their taking office marks the end of an era in which the
political leadership rested--and that seems truly the right
word--with persons whose politically formative years were
under communism. Macedonia's President Kiro Gligorov and the
Kosovar shadow-state leader Ibrahim Rugova have both made
their marks on the region's history, but time now seems to
have passed them by, along with their Tito-era styles.
	The main issue on the horizon, however, remains the
democratization of Serbia. The Serbs are the numerically
largest people of the former Yugoslavia and live at the very
center of the Balkans. They also have a stronger democratic
tradition than most of their neighbors. They therefore cannot
be "written off" as inherent warmongers, any more than the
Germans could after having started and lost two World Wars.
It is precisely the example of post-1945 Germany that
suggests that there is ample time and opportunity for Serbia
to reclaim its democratic heritage and take its place
politically as well as geographically at the center of the
Balkans.
	But NATO ended the war with a "Saddam Hussein peace"
that left in office a dictator who first came to power by
manipulating nationalist sentiments and after 10 years of
economic downturn. Many Western leaders are now predicting
Milosevic's eventual demise, but not necessarily in the
coming weeks.
	Part of the reason for this is that the domestic
opposition presents no readily identifiable alternative to
Milosevic. Some opposition leaders have no large followings,
while others are tainted by a history of opportunism or
mercurial behavior. Still others are extreme nationalists who
might have no qualms about launching new wars or waves of
ethnic cleansing.
	Perhaps the most serious threat to Milosevic could come
from below, including from Serbs who lost their homes as a
result of his wars. That sort of discontent could, however,
as easily be harnessed by the extreme nationalists as by
democrats.
	In order to help promote a non-nationalist alternative
to Milosevic, some Western governments and NGOs have actively
begun to promote the democratization of Serbia. This involves
support for democratic political forces and the independent
media. It also means launching the German-sponsored Balkan
stability pact for regional peace and development, which
Serbia will be welcome to join once it has rid itself of
Milosevic.
	A tantalizing prospect would be for the international
community to use its de facto protectorate over Kosova to
promote democracy in Serbia as a whole. The province could
become a center for a free and vibrant Serbian press and
independent electronic media. NGO's and the opposition could
also operate freely there. Kosova could once again become a
"cradle of Serbian civilization."

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