RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 3, No. 86, Part II, 4 May 1999

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 3, No. 86, Part II, 4 May 1999

A daily report of developments in Eastern and Southeastern
Europe, Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia prepared by the
staff of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

This is Part II, a compilation of news concerning Central,
Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. Part I covers Russia,
Transcaucasia and Central Asia and is distributed
simultaneously as a second document. Back issues of RFE/RL
Newsline and the OMRI Daily Digest are online at RFE/RL's Web
site: http://www.rferl.org/newsline

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Headlines, Part II

* KUCHMA EARNS PLACE IN PRESS 'HALL OF SHAME'

* THOUSANDS OF KOSOVARS REACH MACEDONIA

* TUDJMAN, OPPOSITION MAKE DEAL ON ELECTION LAW

End Note: DESTROYING SERBIA IN ORDER TO SAVE IT
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EAST-CENTRAL EUROPE

U.S. AMBASSADOR RETURNS TEMPORARILY TO BELARUS. U.S.
Ambassador to Belarus Daniel Speckhard has returned to
Belarus for the first time since he was recalled to
Washington last June in protest at his eviction from the
Drazdy diplomatic compound near Minsk. Speckhard told
journalists on 3 May that he will stay in Minsk for one week
to examine the Belarusian authorities' offers to provide him
with a new residence, Belapan reported. Speckhard added that
he will also hold meetings with government officials,
opposition leaders, and ordinary citizens during his visit,
AP reported. JM

BELARUSIAN POPULAR FRONT PROTESTS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
PROCEDURE. Following an objection by its exiled leader Zyanon
Paznyak (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 May 1999), the Belarusian
Popular Front (BNF) has protested the early voting procedure
adopted by the Central Electoral Commission for the May
presidential elections, RFE/RL's Belarusian Service reported
on 3 May. The BNF's protest will be examined by the Supreme
Soviet Presidium on 4 May. Syarhey Papkou, chief of Paznyak's
election staff, told RFE/RL that the early voting procedure
does not conform with the presidential election law. The BNF
wants the elections to be held on 16 May at stationary
polling stations, instead of conducting voting at voters'
homes from 6-16 May. According to Papkou, the resolution on
early voting was adopted "under pressure" from President
Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime. JM

KUCHMA EARNS PLACE IN PRESS 'HALL OF SHAME.' The U.S.
Committee to Protect Journalists has included Ukrainian
President Leonid Kuchma in a list of 10 heads of state
considered to be the biggest "enemies of the press." The
list, which was made public on 3 May, places Kuchma alongside
the leaders of Yugoslavia, China, Cuba, the Democratic
Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia. The committee says that by
"using tax and libel laws as instruments of his hostility to
journalists, Kuchma runs roughshod over any expression of
opposition." It also accuses Kuchma of "tacit acceptance of
violence against the press," which encourages assaults on
Ukrainian reporters and editors and adds to a "general
climate of fear and self-censorship." Conspicuously absent
from the list is Belarusian President Lukashenka, who had
been included on it for the past several years. JM

IMF SAYS PLANNED CUTS IN ESTONIAN BUDGET INSUFFICIENT. IMF
experts told Prime Minister Mart Laar on 3 May that they
believe Estonia's 1999 budget should be cut by 2.3 billion
kroons ($156.5 million), ETA reported. The government has a
drawn up a negative supplementary budget that envisages cuts
in expenditures totaling some 1 billion kroons (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 23 April 1999). It plans to discuss the draft on 4
May. JC

LATVIAN PREMIER EXPANDS CABINET... Vilis Kristopans said on
Latvian Radio on 3 May that he will appoint two new state
ministers, LETA reported. Viktors Jaksons of the For
Fatherland and Freedom party has been appointed state
minister for heath and Tatjana Koke of the New Party state
minister for high education. Kristopans noted that
negotiations are continuing on the posts of forestry and
municipal reforms state ministers. Both the Social Democrats
and Latvia's Way have nominated candidates for those
positions. JC

...WHILE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS EXPAND COOPERATION. Following a
meeting between representatives of the New Party and the
Social Democrats, Egils Baldzens, the chairman of the Social
Democrats' parliamentary group, announced that the two
parties will soon sign a cooperation agreement focusing on
issues of interest to both, including the privatization of
large enterprises, the national economy, social issues, and
cooperation between the Ministries of Agriculture and the
Economy, ELTA reported on 3 May. Baldzens also announced that
a cooperation agreement with the For Fatherland and Freedom
party will be signed this week. That accord will provide for
cooperating on social issues and on the protection of the
domestic market. JC

LITHUANIAN PRESIDENT APPOINTS ACTING PREMIER... Valdas
Adamkus on 3 May appointed Labor and Social Welfare Minister
Irena Degutiene as acting prime minister, after accepting
earlier the same day Gediminas Vagnorius's resignation from
the premiership. Together with five other ministers (finance,
transport, justice, public administrative reforms, and
culture), Degutiene, 49, had handed in her resignation on 3
May. All of those ministers, with the exception of Finance
Minister Algirdas Semeta, are members of the ruling
Conservative Party. There were no reports, however, that
Adamkus has accepted the ministers' resignations, and ELTA
quoted presidential spokeswoman Violeta Gaizauskaite as
saying that all ministers must stay in their posts until a
new government has been formed. JC

...AS CONSERVATIVES SOFTEN ANTI-PRESIDENT STANCE? Following a
meeting with Adamkus on 3 May, leaders of the ruling
Conservative Party stressed they will not nominate a
candidate for the premiership but want the president to do so
in order that the new government enjoys the "president's
confidence." At the same time, contrary to earlier
statements, they gave to understand that they will
participate in the new government. And, according to ELTA,
Conservative Party members avoided giving direct answers to
the question of what the party would do if the president were
to nominate a Conservative as next premier. Caucus leader
Arvydas Vidziunas told reporters that "we will wait for the
presidential nomination and then decide." JC

RUSSIA RESUMES GAS SUPPLIES TO LITHUANIA. Lithuania's state
gas corporation Lietuvos Dujos said on 3 May that Gazprom has
resumed full gas supplies to Lithuania after cutting
deliveries last month (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 April 1999).
Gazprom had claimed that Lithuania owed it some $18 million
and threatened to cut supplies if the debt were not paid.
Lithuania insists that it owed about half that amount and
that the debt has now been settled, AFP reported. JC

SOLIDARITY LEADER ASKED TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT. The Social
Movement of Solidarity Electoral Action (RS AWS),
Solidarity's political arm, headed by Prime Minister Jerzy
Buzek, has asked Solidarity leader Marian Krzaklewski to run
as its candidate in presidential elections in 2000, PAP
reported on 3 May. Krzaklewski said the same day that the RS
AWS proposal came as a surprise to him and that he has not
yet made up his mind whether to run. He added that he could
run for president only if the right-of-center parties fielded
one candidate. JM

POLAND'S LEFT WING WANTS EQUAL SOCIAL OPPORTUNITIES. A dozen
left wing parties--including the Social Democrats of the
Polish Republic, the Labor Union, and the Polish Socialist
Party (PPS)--met on 30 April to discuss an alternative
development strategy for Poland as well as a different
market-economy model, "Gazeta Wyborcza" reported on 4 May.
According to the daily, Poland's left wing wants to work out
a program that will guarantee equal social opportunities for
everybody. "More and more people are suffering losses due to
the systemic transformation [in Poland]," PPS leader Piotr
Ikonowicz commented. JM

HAVEL CALLS ON CZECHS TO SHOW COMPASSION TO KOSOVAR REFUGEES.
President Vaclav Havel on 3 May urged Czechs to be
sympathetic toward the Kosovar refugees' plight and not to
hesitate to provide them with temporary lodging, CTK
reported. Havel made his comments amid reports of Czech towns
and villages protesting and even refusing to accommodate
ethnic Albanian refugees from Kosova. Havel said Czechs
should remember that before the 1989 revolution Czechs
emigrated en masse to many different countries. The president
added that the low level of public support for NATO air
strikes among the population can be attributed in part to the
failure of Czech politicians to explain the situation in
Kosova. Havel also was less than enthusiastic with Foreign
Minister Jan Kavan's peace plan (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 May
1999), saying that "there are similar proposals in other NATO
countries." PB

LEADING OPPOSITION PARTY ADOPTS RESERVED POSITION ON KOSOVA.
The Executive Committee of parliamentary speaker Vaclav
Klaus's Civic Democratic Party (ODS) passed a resolution on
Kosova on 3 May that casts doubt upon NATO's strategy, CTK
reported. The resolution supports the Czech Republic's
fulfilling its NATO obligations but is skeptical about the
use of air strikes to resolve the crisis. Several members of
the ODS objected to the passage of the resolution, which
closely reflects the stance of the ruling Socialists (CSSD).
In other news, the daily "Lidove noviny" reported that the
Central Bohemian branch of the CSSD has drawn up a report
highly critical of CSSD head and Premier Milos Zeman. PB

KOVAC REJECTS CALLS TO THROW IN THE TOWEL. Former Slovak
President Michal Kovac said on 3 May in Bratislava that he
will stay in the race for the presidency, despite calls for
two of the three independent candidates to renounce their
candidacies, TASR reported. The "Three for One" initiative,
organized by 26 Slovak Democratic Coalition deputies, is seen
as an attempt to boost support for candidate Magda Vasaryova
over former Premier Vladimir Meciar so that she would take
part in a likely runoff against frontrunner Rudolf Schuster.
Or, in the event of Vasaryova's dropping out of the race,
that Schuster would receive more than 50 percent of the vote
and win outright. Vasaryova consistently trails Meciar by a
small percentage for third place in opinion polls. Kovac
regularly places fifth, behind nationalist Jan Slota, both of
whom have only single-digit support. PB

SLOVAK GOVERNMENT DENIES UNCONSTITUTIONALITY CHARGES. The
Slovak government issued a statement on 3 May refuting
charges made by the opposition Movement for a Democratic
Slovakia (HZDS) that Bratislava's granting of air space to
NATO violates the constitution, TASR reported. The statement
said that Article 119 of the Slovak Constitution gives the
government the right to make such important internal and
foreign-policy decisions. In other news, the deputy chairman
of the HZDS, Vojtech Tkac, said the party will establish its
own vote-counting system for fear of fraud during the
upcoming presidential election. PB

COALITION, OPPOSITION CONFLICT DEEPENS OVER USE OF HUNGARIAN
AIR SPACE. Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on 3 May that the
Socialist Party is "playing with fire" by attempting to limit
NATO's access to Hungarian airports and air space (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 3 May 1999). He said Hungary could find
itself in a difficult position if the largest opposition
party withdraws from a six-party agreement guaranteeing
unlimited use of the country's air space and airports by NATO
aircraft. In other news, Peter Balas, deputy state secretary
at the Economics Ministry, announced on 3 May that Hungary
has joined the EU oil embargo on Yugoslavia. And President
Arpad Goncz agreed with visiting South African President
Nelson Mandela that the conflict in Yugoslavia must be
resolved through negotiation. MSZ

SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

THOUSANDS OF KOSOVARS REACH MACEDONIA. Some 9,000 Kosovars
arrived at the Blace frontier crossing with Macedonia on 3
May. One-third of them spent the following night in the open
while waiting to enter Macedonia and the transit camp at the
border. Most of the 9,000 came from Podujeva, north of
Prishtina. Aid workers said that the fact that the Serbian
authorities deported the Kosovars in an "unprecedented three
trains" suggests that the Serbs "are working overtime to
clear the area north of Prishtina" of ethnic Albanians,
Reuters reported. One refugee said that police separated
young men from the rest of the expellees at the Prishtina
railway station. Aid workers added that this marks the first
time they have heard of such a practice in the capital. Other
refugees at Blace said they spent "weeks" living in the
mountains. Some of the women were raped by Serbian forces. PM

ALBANIA PREPARES TO TAKE 60,000 REFUGEES FROM MACEDONIA.
British Lieutenant-General John Reith, who is commander of
NATO's humanitarian relief mission in Albania, said in Tirana
on 3 May that the alliance plans to build camps for an
additional 160,000 Kosovar refugees, including 60,000 from
neighboring Macedonia. He added that the Albanian government
wants to make "a gesture of intent" to the Macedonian
government to show that it is "willing to take people" from
Macedonia's overcrowded camps. Reith said that Tirana airport
currently handles 80 humanitarian aid flights daily.
Meanwhile, aid workers from the UN High Commissioner for
Refugees evacuated about 7,000 refugees from Kukes in 15
buses and 75 military vehicles. A UNHCR spokesman said in
Tirana that the number of refugees in Albania now exceeds
400,000. Elsewhere, Serbian artillery shells hit an Albanian
Television transmitter and a private radio station near Qafe
e Prushit in the Has Mountains, an RFE/RL correspondent
reported from Tirana. FS

UCK REJECTS LDK OFFER TO FORM NEW GOVERNMENT. Jakup Krasniqi,
who is the principal spokesman for the Kosova Liberation Army
(UCK), told private Klan TV in Tirana on 3 May that a
proposal by officials from Ibrahim Rugova's Democratic League
of Kosova (LDK) to form a new provisional government is
"unacceptable," dpa reported. Krasniqi added that "there is
already a government of Kosova led by [the UCK's] Hashim
Thaci." Also in Tirana, an LDK delegation led by shadow-state
Prime Minister Bujar Bukoshi held talks with Albanian
government officials who are working to bring together the
rival Kosovar political forces, an RFE/RL correspondent
reported. Meanwhile, Krasniqi told the Ljubljana daily "Delo"
of 3 May that "we did not correctly anticipate either the
dimensions of war that would ensue from the air strikes or
that the Serbs' actions would concentrate on civilians." He
added that "we thought that Serbia would mainly concentrate
on defending itself from NATO attacks." FS

NATO SAYS SERBS MADE 'PROPAGANDA TRICK' OUT OF BUS INCIDENT.
A spokesman for the Atlantic alliance said in Brussels on 4
May that an attack on a bus near Prizren the previous day was
the result of fighting between the UCK and Serbian forces and
was not the work of NATO aircraft. He added that "after a
comprehensive review of operations, and although several of
our aircraft were in the general area, there is no evidence
to link our activities with this alleged incident." Shortly
after the attack on the bus, which left at least 17 dead,
Serbian authorities charged that a NATO bomb hit the vehicle.
PM

BLAIR HAILS 'JUST WAR'... British Prime Minister Tony Blair
said at Macedonia's Stankovic refugee camp on 3 May that "we
will do everything we can to make sure that these people,
these innocent people, are allowed to go back to their homes,
their towns, their villages." Blair stressed that NATO will
continue its efforts to stop Yugoslav President Slobodan
Milosevic's "appalling policy of ethnic cleansing and racial
genocide... . That commitment is total." The prime minister
added that "this is not a battle for territory. It is a
battle for humanity. It is a just cause." PM

...AS DOES CHIRAC. French President Jacques Chirac said in
Paris on 3 May that NATO will continue its efforts against
Serbia until Milosevic accepts all of the alliance's demands.
Chirac added: "To all of you who have not seen a war,
especially the younger generations, I want to tell you that
this conflict is exemplary. It is not based on hidden
economic or strategic concerns, but on a concept of morality
and the honor of nations. To accept the horrors that we have
witnessed would mean losing our soul. It would allow an
unspeakable gangrene to settle once more on our continent."
PM

NEW WEAPON SHORT CIRCUITS SERBIAN POWER GRID. The Atlantic
alliance shut down much of Serbia's power supply on 2-3 May
by using a new and highly secret "graphite bomb," AFP
reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 May 1999). The device,
about which a Pentagon spokesman declined to comment,
explodes above a power station and releases a cloud of
graphite dust. The graphite in turn acts as a conductor and
short circuits the switching station, causing it to shut
itself down. Some equipment is permanently damaged, but the
graphite dust can be easily removed. "The Guardian" of 4 May
described the effects of the bomb on the electrical network
as "having the mechanical equivalent of a series of heart
attacks." Allied forces used an earlier version of the weapon
to shut down Iraq's power system in the 1991 Gulf War. PM

MONTENEGRIN GOVERNMENT NOT INFORMED ABOUT PORT CLOSURE. The
government said in a statement on 3 May in Podgorica that it
has not been officially informed about the military
authorities' decision to close the port of Bar (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 3 May 1999). Jusuf Kalomperovic, who is minister
for shipping and communications, said that he hopes that the
navy will revoke its decision to shut down the port. PM

TUDJMAN, OPPOSITION MAKE DEAL ON ELECTION LAW. In Zagreb on 3
May, President Franjo Tudjman agreed with opposition leaders
Ivica Racan of the Social Democrats and Drazen Budisa of the
Croatian Social-Liberal Party to abolish separate electoral
lists for Croats living abroad. Members of the Diaspora will
continue to have the right to vote and run for office and
will receive places on the party lists that appear on ballots
throughout Croatia, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported.
In recent elections, the existence of separate lists meant in
practice that voters in Herzegovina elected a solid bloc of
deputies to the Croatian parliament from Tudjman's Croatian
Democratic Community. Many Western governments and
institutions have criticized Croatia's electoral laws,
chiefly on the grounds that the ethnic Croats of Bosnia-
Herzegovina are citizens of that country and should not be
allowed vote in Croatian elections. It is unclear whether the
latest compromise will help pave the way for Croatia's
admission to Euro-Atlantic institutions. PM

PERRY TO MEDIATE GULF OF PIRAN DISPUTE. A spokesman for the
Slovenian Foreign Ministry said in Ljubljana on 3 May that
Croatian and Slovenian officials will meet the following day
in Washington with former Secretary of Defense William Perry.
The spokesman added that the governments of the two ex-
Yugoslav states asked Perry to mediate their dispute over
their maritime border in the Gulf of Piran. Croatia claims
that the gulf belongs to it alone. Slovenia wants a corridor
through the gulf to enable Slovenian ships and fishing boats
to have direct access to the high seas. Since 1991, Zagreb
has stuck to its position in the hope of extracting
concessions from Ljubljana on other bilateral issues,
RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Both countries need
to resolve the dispute in order to accelerate their
integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. PM

BLAIR MEETS ROMANIAN PRIME MINISTER IN BUCHAREST. British
Prime Minister Tony Blair said on 4 May that he favors
holding a conference on ways to help Balkan countries
suffering economically because of the war in Yugoslavia, AP
reported. Blair made his comments after a meeting with
Premier Radu Vasile. He reportedly told Romanian President
Emil Constantinescu that he also favors a reconstruction plan
for the Balkans at the conclusion of the war. He said NATO
appreciates Bucharest's support during the air campaign.
Blair is to address the parliament before returning to
Britain. PB

NATO COMMANDER PRAISES BULGARIA, SAYS MILOSEVIC LOSING WAR.
U.S. General Wesley Clark, the top NATO commander in Europe,
said in Sofia on 3 May that NATO is winning the war against
Yugoslavia, AP reported. Clark was in Sofia for talks with
Bulgarian leaders in an attempt to rally support for a
parliamentary vote on an accord with the alliance granting it
access to a limited air corridor over Bulgaria. Clark said
after meeting with Premier Ivan Kostov that NATO is "very
appreciative of the courageous and very forward-looking
approach" of the Bulgarian government. He said Bulgaria is a
"very valued, special member of the Partnership for Peace
program" and added that NATO will work with Bulgaria to
prevent a repetition of the errant missile incident last week
(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 April 1999). The Bulgarian
Constitutional Court ruled on 3 May that the accord with NATO
does not violate the constitution. More than 1,000 people
demonstrated outside the parliament on 4 May as debate on the
accord began. PB

KOSTOV WARNS OF THREAT REFUGEES POSE TO MACEDONIA. Premier
Kostov said on 3 May that the tide of Kosovar refugees in
Macedonia poses political and economic dangers to that
country. In an interview in the daily "Trud," Kostov said
destabilization of Macedonia can end "in only two tragic
ways." One way would be a split in which an ethnic Albanian
part of Macedonia joins Albania and the other part returns to
Yugoslavia. The second "tragic" end would be "for Macedonia
to die the way Yugoslavia is dying." He referred to Macedonia
as a "brother country." PB

END NOTE

DESTROYING SERBIA IN ORDER TO SAVE IT

by Christopher Walker

	The administration of a hard-hitting therapy for a grave
illness has the potential to cure but also runs the risk of
grievously harming the patient. For Yugoslavia, NATO's
therapy of choice--an ever-escalating bombing campaign--poses
the following question: Will this military operation affect
Serbian society so that it becomes consumed with resentment
and malice toward the international community? Or will the
NATO effort purge from Serbia the cancerous behavior that has
so plagued the entire Balkan region for the last decade?
	Now into the second month of its bombing operation, NATO
is targeting a wider range of transport and communication
links and is increasingly focusing on a range of key
industrial sites and economic assets throughout Serbia. While
most of the targets at the outset of the campaign were
overtly military in nature, it is clear that considerable
destruction is now being done to the civilian sector and
economic infrastructure in Serbia--and not only as a result
of collateral damage.
	It is also clear that the Western alliance overestimated
the effectiveness of air power as the tool for compelling
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to accede to its
demands. Unable to get Milosevic to capitulate quickly and
unwilling to take the more drastic military steps that would
help bring the conflict to a close, the allies are relegated
to hammering Serbia from the air.
	The failure of the Milosevic era speaks for itself. All
sectors of Yugoslav society have been infected by the
regime's primitive style of governance. A byproduct of the
NATO bombing campaign has been an intensification of already
existing anti-democratic conditions in Serbia: profiteers who
honed their skills during the Croatian and Bosnian wars are
now back on familiar, lucrative ground; the country's
politics, already extreme by regional standards, have been
further polarized; the economy, in shambles dating back
several years, is in danger of being gutted entirely; and
independent media, which had operated under consistent
official pressure, have now been formally taken over and
added to the state-run propaganda machinery.
	At the same time, the effects of Serbia's condition have
not been confined within its own borders. On the contrary,
Serbia has played the role of regional menace for a full
decade now. And as a result, all of its neighbors have
suffered.
	The politics of aggression, as directed from Belgrade,
have dragged down the regional economy and contributed
greatly to the view of the Balkans as a dark corner in
Europe. Serbia's actions have also radicalized to varying
degrees the politics of neighboring countries and provinces,
including Croatia, Bosnia, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro,
and Kosova. The dramatic shifts of ethnic populations,
largely initiated and orchestrated by the Serbian regime,
have wreaked havoc on the regional landscape since the
disintegration of Yugoslavia.
	Recognizing the enormity of the task of enabling
democratic habits to take root in Serbia and throughout the
Balkans, the NATO alliance is promoting what U.S. President
Bill Clinton describes as a post-conflict strategy for
reconstruction and renewal. The alliance seems sensitive to
the fact that Serbia cannot be left as a festering wound in
southeastern Europe after hostilities end.
	Soliciting Russia's assistance in bringing about a
settlement with Milosevic is a delicate issue. Implicit in
using Russia's diplomatic channels to Belgrade is Milosevic's
remaining in power after a negotiated settlement. One
alternative arrangement, albeit almost inconceivable at the
moment, would be a Moscow-brokered plan that met key NATO
demands, while simultaneously allowing Milosevic an exit from
power that would protect his physical safety and not subject
him to prosecution as a war criminal.
	But if Milosevic remains, it is hard to imagine a
scenario under which renewal and reform could take root in
Yugoslavia. At this point, reconstructing Serbia and
reorienting its politics will be difficult enough even if a
change in leadership were to take place. Moreover,
Milosevic's continued presence would negatively influence the
ability of fragile neighboring countries to regain their
footing.
	Thoroughly vanquishing Serbia runs the risk of
positioning it as the sick man of Europe for the 21st
century. Equally risky would be to conclude the military
campaign without reasonable confidence that in the post-
conflict period Serbia would change its political habits. A
Serbian nation intent on continuing a pattern of belligerence
would undermine the entire region's prospects for stability
and prosperity.
	The NATO alliance is putting forward billions of dollars
to continue its military effort against Serbia. Many more
billions will be necessary for the civilian rebuilding effort
after the guns are laid down.

The author is a New York-based analyst specializing in East
European affairs (intrel@aol.com).

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