RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol 3, No. 75, Part II, 19 April 1999

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol 3, No. 75, Part II, 19 April 1999

A daily report of developments in Eastern and
Southeastern Europe, Russia, the Caucasus and Central
Asia prepared by the staff of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty.

This is Part II, a compilation of news concerning
Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe.  Part I
covers Russia, Transcaucasia and Central Asia and is
distributed simultaneously as a second document.  Back
issues of RFE/RL NewsLine and the OMRI Daily Digest are
online at RFE/RL's Web site:
http://www.rferl.org/newsline

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Headlines, Part II

* MECIAR RE-ELECTED PARTY HEAD

* NATO: EVIDENCE OF 43 MASS GRAVE SITES IN KOSOVA

* ANOTHER 34,000 REFUGEES REACH ALBANIA

End Note: WHAT IF MILOSEVIC SURVIVES?
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EAST-CENTRAL EUROPE

UKRAINE INVITES RUGOVA TO KYIV. Ukrainian Foreign
Minister Borys Tarasyuk on 16 April said Ukraine has
asked Yugoslavia to allow Albanian leader Ibrahim Rugova
to come to Kyiv and freely express his opinion on the
Kosova conflict. Tarasyuk said Ukraine wants to "dispel
doubts that Rugova had spoken earlier [in Yugoslavia]
without any pressure," AP reported. Tarasyuk added that
Ukraine is also ready to grant shelter until the end of
the conflict to the three U.S. soldiers captured by
Yugoslav forces last month. JM

KUCHMA FIRES ENERGY OFFICIALS. Ukrainian President
Leonid Kuchma on 16 April fired deputy energy ministers
Yuriy Ulitych and Serhiy Kuzmenko for "abuse of
authority" and Zinoviy Busyo, head of the National
Commission for Energy Regulation, for "serious
negligence" in his work, Ukrainian Television reported.
Kuchma also instructed the energy minister to dismiss
directors of two energy companies. Kuchma made the
personnel decisions after reading preliminary findings
of an investigation into alleged abuses in the energy
sectors. JM

UKRAINIAN REPORT ON POSITIVE INVESTMENT CLIMATE
QUESTIONED. A Ukrainian delegation --including Finance
Minister Ihor Mityukov and National Bank Chairman Viktor
Yushchenko--has told a European Bank for Reconstruction
and Development board meeting in London that Ukraine is
an attractive place for foreign investors, an RFE/RL
correspondent reported on 18 April. Several Western
business leaders publicly questioned Kyiv's assessments
and urged speedier reforms. They said administrative
hurdles, foreign exchange restrictions, and an
incomplete legal framework make Ukraine difficult and
risky for foreigners. JM

BELARUS HOLDS LOCAL ELECTION RUNOFF. According to
official data, 45.6 percent of the eligible voters
participated in the local election runoff on 16 April,
Belapan reported the next day. Under the local election
law, the second round of voting is valid if turnout
exceeds 25 percent. After the runoff vote, all but two
of the regional and village councils in Belarus have a
quorum. JM

BELARUS'S POLISH MINORITY LEADER DETAINED. The
Belarusian police on 17 April arrested Tadeusz Gawin,
chairman of the Union of Poles in Belarus, for
organizing an unsanctioned picket in Hrodna. Gawin is to
stand trial on 21 April for disturbing the public order.
The protesters brandished posters blaming the central
and local authorities for "suppressing the Polish
educational system" in Belarus, "Gazeta wyborcza"
reported on 19 April. Belarus's Poles complain that
since Alyaksandr Lukashenka became president in 1994,
they have not been allowed to build new Polish-language
schools in Belarus. JM

EESTI TELEKOM RESTRUCTURING COMPLETED. The restructuring
of Eesti Telekom has been completed following the
company's acquisition of all shares in its subsidiaries,
Eesti Telefon and Eesti Mobiiltelefon, ETA reported on
16 April. The company's share capital now totals some
1.37 billion kroons ($95.8 million). Following the
tender for shares in Eesti Telekom earlier this year
(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 January 1999), the state has
a 27.28 percent stake in the company, while private
investors own 23.72 percent, Baltic Tele AB 25.5
percent, and Sweden's Telia AB and Finland's Sonera
Holding B.V. 11.75 percent each. JC

VAN DER STOEL AGAIN OBJECTS TO LATVIA'S LANGUAGE BILL.
In a letter to Dzintars Abikis, head of the
parliamentary Education, Culture, and Research
Committee, OSCE Commissioner on National Minorities Max
van der Stoel has voiced concern over Latvia's language
bill, pointing in particular to the provision regulating
language use in the private sector, BNS reported on 16
April. Van der Stoel warned that passage of the bill in
its current form might impair Riga's chances of
integration into the EU. OSCE experts are to meet with
lawmakers from 4-5 May to discuss the draft legislation
ahead of its third and final reading. JC

KRISTOPANS PLEDGES TO CONTINUE PAYING PENSIONS ON TIME.
Acknowledging that the social budget deficit is "one
degree worse than planned," Latvian Prime Minister Vilis
Kristopans told Latvian Radio that the shortfall will be
covered by the surplus in the main budget, LETA reported
on 16 April. "The situation is being closely monitored,
and the governmentŠwill continue to pay pensions on
time," he said. Finance Minister Ivars Godmanis
predicted last week that the social budget deficit could
total 96 million lats (some $166 million) this year (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 14 April 1999). With regard to the
issue of unemployment, which now exceeds 10 percent,
Kristopans pledged to reduce that figure by the summer
and ensure that export companies resume operations.
Those companies have been strongly affected by the
Russian financial crisis. JC

CONSERVATIVES DISCUSS HOW TO MAKE PEACE BETWEEN
PRESIDENT, PREMIER. Lithuania's ruling Conservative
Party has discussed how to end the ongoing "war of
words" between President Valdas Adamkus and Prime
Minister Gediminas Vagnorius, ELTA reported on 16 April,
citing the country's major dailies. That discussion took
place after Adamkus met with parliamentary chairman
Vytautas Landsbergis to discuss the issue. The president
has indicated that he will make a statement later this
week on the premier's conduct following the recent
escalation in his conflict with Vagnorius (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 13 April 1999). JC

POLISH PREMIER DENIES BEING COMMUNIST AGENT. Polish
Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek on 16 April denied that he
collaborated with the Communist-era secret services, as
alleged by a right-wing politician the day before (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 16 April 1999). Buzek called for his
personal file to be examined to clear his name. "I know
that I have been wrongfully accused. I am someone in
whom the public should have complete trust. Therefore I
decided to act immediately in this matter and explain
it," he told Radio Zet. JM

CZECH, HUNGARIAN, POLISH MILITARY CHIEFS PREFER AIR
STRIKES TO GROUND TROOPS. The chiefs of staff of the
Czech, Hungarian, and Polish armies reaffirmed their
support for NATO air strikes against Yugoslavia at a
meeting in Karlovy Vary on 17 April, CTK reported.
General Jiri Sedivy, the head of the Czech army, said
the question of introducing NATO ground forces in
Yugoslavia is a "political" one. Hungarian army chief
Ferenc Vegh said a ground operation would be
"complicated" and dangerous from a military point of
view. Polish General Henryk Szumski also attended the
meeting. The previous day, the Defense and Foreign
Affairs Committees of the three countries' parliaments
issued a joint statement pledging their unequivocal
support for the NATO operation. Meanwhile, a poll by the
STEM polling agency found that opposition to NATO air
attacks in the Czech Republic has risen from 40 percent
to 48 percent over the last two weeks. PB

CZECH FOREIGN MINISTER: GOVERNMENT LIKELY TO COMPLY WITH
NATO REQUEST FOR AIRPORTS. Jan Kavan said on 16 April
that the government will likely agree to a NATO request
that the alliance's planes be allowed to use military
airports in the Czech Republic, CTK reported. Kavan said
the alliance will request the use of one or two airports
at which NATO refueling aircraft can land. He added that
the Czech parliament will have to approve the request as
well. Earlier, Prague agreed to allow refueling planes
to overfly Czech territory. In other news, Jiri
Dienstbier, former Czech foreign minister and currently
UN rapporteur for human rights, said on Czech Television
on 18 April that the bombing campaign against Yugoslavia
was a "fatal mistake" that shows Yugoslav President
Slobodan Milosevic that NATO "is not willing to risk the
bones of a single soldier." PB

ROMANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN BRATISLAVA. Andrei Plesu
met with his Slovak counterpart, Eduard Kukan, in
Bratislava on 16 April, CTK reported. Plesu praised
Romania and Slovakia over their treatment of minorities,
saying that other methods "lead to tragedy." Kukan said
both ministers agreed that a solution to the crisis in
Kosova should be found without the intervention of NATO
ground troops. He added that the two countries have
similar foreign policy goals, including entry into NATO
and the EU, and that bilateral cooperation in all areas
will be strengthened. PB

MECIAR RE-ELECTED PARTY HEAD. Former Slovak Premier
Vladimir Meciar has been re-elected chairman of the
Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS), AP reported
on 19 April. Meciar is quoted by the daily "Sme" as
telling an HZDS congress on the weekend that the arrest
last week of the former director of secret service Ivan
Lexa made him decide to re-enter politics (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 12 April 1999). PB

SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

NATO: EVIDENCE OF 43 MASS GRAVE SITES IN KOSOVA.
Brigadier General Giuseppe Marani, who is a spokesman
for the Atlantic alliance, said in Brussels on 18 April
that aerial reconnaissance suggests there are 43 mass
grave sites in various parts of Kosova. He added that
"there have been numerous refugee reports of Serbian
police assembling [Kosovars] into grave-digging chain
gangsŠ. They are being used by Yugoslav President
Slobodan Milosevic to dig graves for their countrymen
killed by Serbian ethnic cleansing." Marani described
the graves as "neat rows of individual graves pointing
toward Mecca." He did not specify the total number of
persons whom NATO believes to be buried in the graves.
PM

THOUSANDS FLEE TO MACEDONIA. Some 15,000 Kosovars
arrived in Macedonia during the weekend of 16-18 April,
Reuters reported. This was the result of a "final push"
by Serbian forces to clear southwestern Kosova of ethnic
Albanians by applying the now-familiar pattern of
"emptying, looting and burning villages," AP and the BBC
added. On 17 April, Macedonian Defense Minister Nikola
Kljusev said in Blace that his country will not build
additional refugee camps to house the new arrivals. He
demanded that the international community honor its
agreements with Macedonia and move quickly to resettle
the refugees in third countries. PM

MACEDONIA TO ESTABLISH 'BORDER ZONE'? Interior Minister
Pavle Trajanov said in Skopje on 17 April that Macedonia
has no intention of allowing either the Kosova
Liberation Army (UCK) or Belgrade to force Macedonia
into the conflict. Trajanov noted that Macedonian
authorities recently found three UCK arms caches just
inside the border and added that "there have been
various attempts to infiltrate arms into Macedonia from
Albania by various channels." He did not elaborate. The
minister suggested that the UCK might be seeking to
destabilize Macedonia by "militarizing" it. He added
that Serbian forces might want to strike south of the
border in order to eliminate UCK strongholds. Trajanov
concluded that the only solution for Skopje could soon
be to establish a six-mile-wide "restricted border zone"
along the frontier with Serbia and Kosova. He did not
specify when the authorities would set up the zone or
what rules would obtain there. PM

MACEDONIA URGES AID AGENCIES TO BUY LOCAL FOOD.
Macedonian Ambassador to the U.K. Stevo Crvenkovski told
officials from the European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development (EBRD) in London on 18 April that aid
agencies are flying food into Macedonia at a time when
Macedonian farmers have a surplus of food that they can
sell only with difficulty. Crvenkovski also called for
Western debt relief to help Macedonia cope with the
refugees. FS

REFUGEE TOTAL OVER 600,000. The UN High Commissioner for
Refugees said in a statement in Geneva on 18 April that
more than 600,000 Kosovars have fled their country. Some
359,000 are in Albania, 133,000 in Macedonia, 73,000 in
Montenegro, and 32,000 in Bosnia-Herzegovina. The
largest group outside the former Yugoslavia consists of
nearly 10,000 in Germany, followed by 3,700 in Turkey
and 1,100 in Norway, AP reported. PM

ANOTHER 34,000 REFUGEES REACH ALBANIA. Another 34,000
refugees arrived in Kukes over the weekend, Reuters
reported on 18 April. Refugees said that another 50,000
or so are currently en route to that city. Five refugees
died on 18 April near the Morina border crossing when
their car hit a mine. According to an OSCE monitor,
Serbian forces have made a deliberate practice of
leaving dead bodies along the road to frighten the
fleeing refugees. Meanwhile, relief agencies made plans
on 18 April to evacuate by helicopter some of the
130,000 refugees in Kukes, but many refugees refused to
leave, saying they want to stay close to their homes. A
large number of refugees there live in the open,
protected only by plastic sheets. NATO spokesman Jamie
Shea said in Brussels on 17 April that the effects of
the current "second round of major ethnic cleansing" are
exacerbated by food and water shortages among those
internally displaced. Many children arriving in Albania
show signs of malnutrition, the BBC added. FS

YUGOSLAVIA BREAKS DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH ALBANIA.
Yugoslavia broke diplomatic relations with Albania on 18
April, Albanian Foreign Ministry officials told Reuters.
They added that the Yugoslav Foreign Ministry has
accused Albania of involvement in the NATO attacks
against Yugoslav targets. Meanwhile, NATO Supreme
Commander for Europe General Wesley Clark met with Prime
Minister Pandeli Majko on 17 April in Tirana to discuss
the possibility of a Yugoslav military threat to
Albania. Clark told reporters later that Yugoslav forces
are "indiscriminately firing rockets into Albania" and
warned that Milosevic must "cease this aggression." The
general added that the Serbian president represents a
"danger to regional stability." And in northern Albania,
NATO began preparations for the quick deployment of 24
U.S. Apache anti-tank helicopters, which are due to
arrive in the region shortly. FS

ALBANIAN MINISTER WARNS OF POSSIBLE ECONOMIC CRISIS.
Albanian Minister for Economic Cooperation and Trade
Ermelinda Meksi told EBRD officials in London on 18
April that Albania will need $800 million to cope with
the influx of refugees. She warned that the "impact of
events in Kosova could upset the delicate balance of
Albania's newly regained stability." And she stressed
that the Albanian government has had significant
economic success, achieving an 8 percent growth rate and
lowering inflation from 42.1 percent in 1997 to only 8.7
percent the following year. An official in the Treasury
Department of the Finance Ministry told Reuters that
this year's budget deficit is expected to reach 15
percent of GDP. Before the refugee crisis began, the
government had predicted a 10 percent shortfall. FS

CLINTON: MILOSEVIC OBSTACLE TO BALKAN PEACE. U.S.
President Bill Clinton wrote in London's "Sunday Times"
on 18 April that there will be no lasting peace in the
Balkans until Milosevic is be secure with a belligerent
tyrant in its midstŠ. We a re in [Kosova] because
Europe's worst demagogue has once again moved from angry
words to unspeakable violence." Clinton added that
Serbia needs "a democratic transition" a to become more
integrated with the rest of Europe (see "RFE/RL New
removed from power. Clinton stressed that "the region
cannot sline," 16 April 1999). Elsewhere, British Prime
Minister Tony Blair said that "there is no doubt that
while nd Milosevic remains in this region, we have a
significant problem." PM

BULGARIAN, CROATIAN MINISTERS CALL FOR MILOSEVIC OUSTER.
Croatian Deputy Prime Minister Borislav Skegro told a
"Wall Street Journal" conference in London on 16 April
that NATO must introduce ground troops if the refugees
are to go home at any time soon. He added that "keeping
Milosevic in power does not solve anything." Bulgarian
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Bozhkov told the same
gathering that "we expected $1.0 billion in foreign
direct investment this year. I do not think we will get
even half of it" as a result of the crisis in Kosova.
"With Milosevic in power, nothing can be done," Bozhkov
concluded. PM

DJUKANOVIC: MILOSEVIC MUST GO. Montenegrin President
Milo Djukanovic told Reuters on 16 April that "there is
an objective danger that the fire and blood [in Kosova]
could engulf not only Yugoslavia but also the entire
region As long as Milosevic is in power, and I hope that
that will not be for much longer, there will be
continuing attempts by his supporters to suppress and
destroy democracy in Montenegro, where he sees us as a
threatŠ. Anyone who tries to conscript a minister or
tries to apprehend him is certainly trying to provoke a
conflict in Montenegro" (see below). Djukanovic argued
that a civil war in Montenegro would be "more tragic and
worse than anything else seen" in the former Yugoslavia.
PM

YUGOSLAV ARMY COURT ISSUES WARRANT FOR MONTENEGRIN
MINISTER. The military court in Podgorica has issued an
arrest warrant for Deputy Prime Minister Novak
Kilibarda, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 18
April. The court wants to try Kilibarda for allegedly
"undermining the military and defense capabilities" of
Yugoslavia. Court officials said that they issued the
warrant after Kilibarda refused to respond to an earlier
summons to appear before that body. Kilibarda is being
guarded by members of the police force, which is loyal
to Djukanovic. PM

SERBIAN FORCES SEARCH ALBANIANS IN MONTENEGRO. Houses of
Albanians living in the Montenegrin town of Rozaje were
searched by Serbian forces for arms on 18 April, VOA's
Albanian Service reported. Rozaje is located virtually
on the Montenegrin border with Kosova. Ethnic Albanian
political leaders in Montenegro subsequently appealed to
the Montenegrin authorities to protect their citizens
against a possible spread of "ethnic cleansing" from
Kosova to Montenegro. FS

ROMANIAN PRESIDENT REASSURES ROMANIANS OF SECURITY. Emil
Constantinescu said on 16 April that Romania will
continue to live in peace and security, despite the
developments in Yugoslavia, Rompres reported.
Constantinescu said on Romanian Television that "all the
outstanding voices of the international political life
consider our country to be a zone of stability." He
added that Romania's security is a result of its firm
decision to join NATO and the EU, noting that there
cannot be "content-less neutrality stands." PB

ROMANIA TO DENY RUSSIA USE OF AIR SPACE. Romanian
Defense Minister Victor Babiuc said on 17 April that
Russia will not be allowed to use Romanian air space to
fly humanitarian aid to Yugoslavia, AP reported. He
added that Moscow will be allowed only to transport aid
across Romania via land. Bulgarian Radio reported that
Romania has also been asked by NATO to provide an air
corridor for its planes (see below), but Romanian
officials have not confirmed that report. In other news,
Romanian officials said on 18 April that the country has
lost $175 million in trade as a result of the crisis in
Kosova. PB

MOLDOVA EXPECTS TO SIGN WORLD BANK LOAN THIS WEEK.
Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Alexandru Muravschi said
on 18 April that the government expects to sign a loan
agreement with the World Bank later this week, an RFE/RL
correspondent in London reported. Muravschi made the
remark at an EBRD board meeting. She did not say how
large the loan would be but noted that it would bolster
hard currency reserves in the Central Bank. The
country's reserves reportedly fell to $143 million late
last year but have since increased to $192 million. PB

BULGARIAN PRESIDENT POSTPONES U.S. VISIT... Petar
Stoyanov returned to Bulgaria in mid-flight to the U.S.
on 16 April after learning that NATO had made a request
for an air corridor over Bulgaria. He was on his way to
Washington ahead of ceremonies marking NATO's 50th
anniversary. In an address broadcast by Bulgarian Radio
before he left for the U.S., Stoyanov called on the
cabinet and parliament to provide logistical support for
NATO if it requested an air corridor. He said that
Bulgaria will continue to support the West and that
Bulgaria's interests coincide with those of the Western
world and not those of a "handful of Yugoslav
politicians." Stoyanov is expected to attend the NATO
ceremonies. PB

...AS SOFIA CONSIDERS NATO REQUEST FOR AIR CORRIDOR.
Prime Minister Ivan Kostov called for consultations with
parliamentary groups on 18 April over the NATO request
for an air corridor, Bulgarian radio reported. The
Bulgarian Constitution requires that the parliament
agree to such a request. Lawmakers declared at the
beginning of NATO operations in Yugoslavia that Sofia
will "participate neither directly nor indirectly in the
military actions." Opposition among political parties to
the request is expected. In other news, Nikolay Dobrev,
the deputy chairman of the Supreme Council of the
opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party, died on 17 April
at the age of 51. He was interior minister from 1996-
1997. PB

END NOTE

WHAT IF MILOSEVIC SURVIVES?

by Christopher Walker

	As the target of the international community's
second major military operation this decade, Slobodan
Milosevic is on the receiving end of a rhetorical
campaign directed by the leadership of the Western
alliance confronting his country.
	From the outset, the Clinton administration and
NATO officials have repeatedly characterized the NATO
attack in individual ways. Operation Allied Force has
variously been described as an effort to cause President
Milosevic to change his mind as well as his pattern of
behavior, while Milosevic himself has been depicted in
Hitler-like fashion.
	Though the Yugoslav leader is without question a
vile, ruthless man, the reliance on inflated language--
focused overwhelmingly on one leader in order to make
the case for military action--does not come without a
price.
	As the prospect of a Kosova partition seeps its way
into the public dialogue, one can only imagine the
recriminations that will abound within the transatlantic
alliance and the U.S. foreign policy community if
Milosevic is able to maintain his rule and lay claim to
a significant portion of Kosova--even if beforehand NATO
virtually emasculates the Yugoslav military and destroys
a good portion of that country's infrastructure.
	Exacerbating this personality-driven phenomenon is
the fact that much of the mainstream Western news media
tends all too readily to follow the example that policy-
makers set by portraying highly complex conflicts as
little more than a showdown with one unsavory thug.
	But beyond the inconsistencies in the U.S.
administration's communication strategy in the Kosova
conflict, there is another important issue to
contemplate in the case of Serbia. Although Milosevic is
indisputably a wily and resilient leader capable of
manipulating public sentiment, it is safe to say that
his policies on Kosova are not entirely without domestic
support within Serbia.
	Despite driving the Yugoslav economy into the
ground and turning his country into a regional bandit
state, Milosevic is still accepted by many Serbs, not
least because of his nationalist program. His most
enthusiastic core support may be a relatively small
portion of the entire Yugoslav population, but his rule
has been tolerated by the Serbian masses. With the
exception of student-led protests in Belgrade in the
winter of 1996-1997, there has been no concerted,
consistent opposition movement against the Yugoslav
leader.
	Milosevic has managed to split, and in part co-opt,
an unorganized opposition and manipulate a large segment
of the Serbian population through control over state-run
media. Independent media were consistently harassed and
forced to the margins until the NATO attack began. Not
surprisingly, one of the Yugoslav regime's first acts
after NATO bombs began to fall was to crack down on
foreign news organizations and domestic independent
media.
	Although some critics remain, much of what
constituted the most active political opposition has
already left Yugoslavia. A large number of educated,
liberal-minded Serbs have elected to forsake their
native country for Western Europe or North America over
the past decade in frustration and disgust over the
Milosevic regime's crony economics and anti-democratic
practices. Those who remain are either too fatigued and
demoralized to fight for change or have been driven into
Milosevic's arms in a show of national solidarity during
the NATO bombings.
	One cannot underestimate how fiercely the Yugoslav
leader will seek to retain his authority. Milosevic
arguably has as much to fear from losing power as do the
countries of the NATO alliance if he manages to hold
onto it. If wrested from power, he would face, among
other things, retribution from forces within Serbia.
This could well mean a rather undignified and painful
end to his reign. From outside, he and his associates
face the prospect of pursuit and prosecution by the
International War Crimes Tribunal.
	In the end, however, history may repeat itself. The
international community could become caught between the
rhetoric of demonization and the reality that Milosevic
is still confronting it. President Bill Clinton recently
observed that Milosevic "would rather rule over rubble
rather than not rule at all."
	As we learned eight years ago in the Persian Gulf--
and may well discover with Milosevic--the inability to
oust a demonized adversary is likely to be interpreted
as a policy failure, irrespective of the enormous damage
the allied forces inflict and whether they have
otherwise achieved their stated military goals.

The author is a New York-based analyst specializing in
East European affairs (intrel@aol.com).

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