|Change is always powerful. Let your hook be always cast. In the pool where you least expect it, will be a fish. - Ovid|
RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol 2, No. 247, Part II, 28 December 1998
________________________________________________________ RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol 2, No. 247, Part II, 28 December 1998 A daily report of developments in Eastern and Southeastern Europe, Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia prepared by the staff of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. This is Part II, a compilation of news concerning Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. Part I covers Russia, Transcaucasia and Central Asia and is distributed simultaneously as a second document. Back issues of RFE/RL NewsLine and the OMRI Daily Digest are online at RFE/RL's Web site: http://www.rferl.org/newsline xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Headlines, Part II * BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION PROTESTS 25 DECEMBER BELARUS- RUSSIA * UNION DECLARATIONFOUR DAYS OF CLASHES IN KOSOVA * DRUG BUST IN MACEDONIA TO HERALD NEW POLICY? End Note: A DIVISIVE CALL FOR UNITY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx EAST-CENTRAL EUROPE UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT DELAYS ADOPTING 1999 BUDGET... The Ukrainian Supreme Council on 25 December postponed the debate on the government's 1999 draft budget until next week after deputies failed to agree on the projected deficit of 1 percent of GDP. The draft budget provides for revenues of 23.4 billion hryvni ($6.8 billion) and expenditures of 24.6 billion hryvni, with annual inflation forecast at 19 percent. Finance Minister Ihor Mityukov, who presented the budget to lawmakers, argued that with Ukraine's economy expected to decline by 1 percent in 1999 it is unrealistic to count on revenues and expenditures as high as the parliament wanted. Meanwhile, President Leonid Kuchma on 26 December said he will leave lawmakers without their salaries unless they pass the 1999 draft budget. "This is for sure. This cannot go on like this," ITAR-TASS quoted him as saying. JM ... RAISES MINIMUM WAGE ONCE AGAIN ... The parliament also increased Ukraine's minimum wage the same day from 55 hryvni ($16) to 73.7 hryvni and set the official poverty level at 90.7 hryvni. The decision was taken two days after the legislature failed to override Kuchma's veto on a bill passed in November, which nearly tripled the minimum wage to 148 hryvni. JM ... AND APPROVES CRIMEAN CONSTITUTION. By a vote of 230 to 67 the parliament on 23 December approved a new constitution for Crimea, Ukraine's only autonomous republic. The constitution allows Crimea to have its own government and legislature and permits the republic to independently sign foreign trade deals. It also stipulates that all taxes and duties collected on Crimean territory are to be directed to the republic's budget. Over the past six years, Crimean lawmakers have submitted four constitutional drafts, but all were either rejected or approved only partially due to what Kyiv's parliamentarians considered separatist provisions. The latest constitution draft was approved after deputies had inserted a separate provision that bans Crimea from approving legislation not in accord with Ukrainian law. JM BELARUSIAN OPPOSITION PROTESTS 25 DECEMBER BELARUS- RUSSIA UNION DECLARATION. On 25 December in Minsk police arrested some 10 demonstrators during an opposition protest against the Belarus-Russia declaration on a single union state signed by Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Boris Yeltsin in Moscow the same day, Reuters and RFE/RL's Belarusian Service reported. The demonstrators, who carried white-red-white flags, paralysed the traffic in the center of Minsk for some 15 minutes. Two protesters have been hospitalized after their arrest. Meanwhile, Stanislau Shushkevich, Mechyslau Hryb, and Syamyon Sharetski, three former speakers of the Supreme Soviet which was dissolved by Lukashenka in 1996, denounced the signing of the 25 December declaration as a "crime against the Belarusian nation. Lukashenka is afraid of free elections. That is why he is going to surrender our country's independence, in the hope of acquiring supreme power in the united state," they said. JM LUKASHENKA DWELLS UPON FUTURE BELARUS-RUSSIA UNION. During a live two-hour television appearance on 27 December, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka presented his vision of the Belarus-Russia Union following the signing of the 25 December Belarusian-Russian declaration on steps toward a single state. He said the union should have supranational power and administration bodies, including a parliament and a government. Lukashenka insisted that the two countries "will remain sovereign states," but that the union leadership should be empowered with such functions as the coordination of foreign policy, defense, the customs service, and the border troops. He did not rule out a common president "if a presidential form of government is chosen." He added that privatization should be carried out independently by each union state. JM ESTONIAN PREMIER SAYS EU MEMBERSHIP "NOT GOAL IN ITSELF." Mart Siiman told Estonian state radio on 23 December that Tallinn would not take any steps detrimental to the Estonian people just to get into the European Union, BNS reported. "For us, the European Union is not a goal in itself. In this access process, the interests of the state and the people must not suffer." And he added that "nothing will be wrong if Estonia is not a member of the European Union on January 1, 2003." PG ESTONIA FACES RISING CRIME RATE. Estonian criminologist Juri Saar told BNS on 23 December that the number of crimes committed in 1998 was greater than in any year since the restoration of independence, but that the rate of increase had slowed slightly and the number of violent crimes had actually dropped. The total number of crimes rose 11.4 percent during the first 11 months of 1998 compared to the same period in 1997. For the comparable period a year earlier, the number of crimes rose some 15.7 percent. Faced with this increase, the Estonian police have agreed to make use of personnel from the country's paramilitary Kaisetliit units after the latter undergo special training. PG ILVES SAYS ESTONIA IS A NORDIC COUNTRY, NOT A BALTIC ONE. Writing in "Eesti Ekspress," former Estonian foreign minister Toomas Hendrik Ilves argued that his country is part of the Nordic region rather than one of three Baltic states, BNS reported on 23 December. Estonia has few cultural or historical links with Latvia and Lithuania, Ilves suggested. And he noted that Lithuanian leaders agree with him. He cited Lithuania's foreign minister Algirdas Saudargas as having said "on numerous occasions" that Lithuania's "historical, religious, geographic and other ties are not with the Baltic states but with Central Europe through Poland." Ilves concluded that the best way to describe Estonia is as "the only post-communist Nordic country." PG LATVIA OPPOSES ECONOMIC BARRIERS AMONG BALTIC STATES. Latvian Prime Minister Vilis Kristopans is categorically against the erection of any economic barriers among the three Baltic states, BNS reported on 23 December. He told Latvian state radio that his government would take what he said were strong measures to protect domestic food producers against imports but that he would oppose new barriers to food imports from the two other Baltic states. PG LATVIA SEEKS TO UPGRADE ITS MILITARY. Defense Minister Valdis Kristovskis told BNS on 24 December that he is working to overcome what he acknowledged is a disastrous situation in the Latvian army. By raising military pay and reorganizing the internal structure of the forces, Kristovskis said he hopes to make the army more capable. At present, it is losing officers to better paying jobs in the private sector and is experiencing enormous difficulties with draftees. One-fifth of the latter cannot speak the national language, 10 percent have a criminal record, and 62 percent have less than a complete secondary school education. PG LITHUANIANS ORDER RUSSIAN MILITARY TEAM OFF TRAIN. Lithuanian border guards forced 28 Russian soldiers to leave a train at the Kaliningrad-Lithuanian border when the troops attempted to travel without the necessary papers, BNS reported on 23 December. PG MOSCOW CRITICIZES LITHUANIA ON RUSSIAN MINORITY. The Russian embassy in Vilnius has issued a press statement sharply critical of the way in which Lithuania has dealt with Russian citizens living on its territory, BNS reported on 28 December. The embassy statement criticized the trials of pro-Soviet activists, the failure of the government to register an association of Russian citizens, and problems in Russian-language schools. It said that these actions have raised concerns "in Russian society." PG LITHUANIAN GOVERNMENT CONSIDERS CLOSING IGNALINA AES. The Lithuanian government has approved in principle two scenarios for closing the Ignalina atomic power station, BNS reported on 24 December. Under the first, Ignalina would be forced to close sometime in the next two years; under the second, it would be upgraded and allowed to continue to operate until 2020 or even later. Vilnius is under pressure from the European Commission to come up with a plan to close the reactor. PG POLISH MINERS WIN PENSIONS CONCESSION, END STRIKE. On 24 December, Solidarity leader Marian Krzaklewski and Labor Minister Longin Komolowski signed an accord promising to preserve miners' right to early retirement with full pension after 25 years of work regardless of employees' age, Polish media reported the same day. A special bill including the early retirement rule is to be adopted by parliament within six months. The miners who have been protesting underground for two weeks (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 December) have left their mines. The signed deal signifies a major concession to miners who protested the new pension system that sets the retirement age at 65 for men and 60 for women. JM POLAND'S LUSTRATION PROCEDURE STARTS IN 1999. Early next year the Warsaw Appeals Court will start reviewing some 23,000 statements by current politicians, parliamentary deputies, and other top public post holders on whether they collaborated with the Communist-era secret police, PAP reported on 23 December. Such statements are a requirement under Poland's lustration law passed in 1997. The law stipulates that those who admit having collaborated with the secret police will not be forbidden to participate in politics or public life, whereas concealment of such facts will be punished with a 10-year ban on holding some public posts. Thus far, some 100 officials have admitted that they worked for the Communist secret services. Their names will be published in the government's official journal. JM SLOVAKIA TO PURSUE EU MEMBERSHIP OFFENSIVE. Deputy premier Pavol Hamzik on 26 December said Slovakia will "do everything" for the European Union to decide in 1999 in favor of inviting Bratislava for talks on membership, TASR reported. Hamzik said Slovakia must better coordinate its legislation with that of the EU and make better use of the Phare programs for EU assistance. He also said his country will be more active in pursuing bilateral relations with EU members and with neighboring states to build up support for accession to the EU. MS SLOVAK CABINET TO FREEZE STATE SALARIES. The cabinet decided against wage hikes for state employees in 1999, as part of the effort to improve the country's economic situation, AP reported on 23 December. Government officials will also forego a raise in wages. Premier Mikulas Dzurinda told journalists that a package of other measures will be introduced on 7 January and that the cabinet wants "to ask the citizens to help us heal the country's economy." MS ORBAN DISCUSSES HUNGARIANS BEYOND BORDERS. In an interview with Duna TV on 23 December, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Hungary "can not be satisfied with the situation of Hungarians beyond the border as long as there is no independent university [with Hungarian tuition] in places where there is a large Hungarian minority," because of the danger of "slow assimilation." He said his government has allocated considerable funding for education for Hungarians abroad but the results thus far are "partial," and a breakthrough will only be achieved when Romania agrees to an independent university for the Hungarian minority in Transylvania. Orban said he expects the situation of Hungarians in Croatia to improve with the envisaged "strategic cooperation" between the two countries, but the situation in Ukraine is "more difficult" since the country is large and has "a cumbersome and complicated administrative system." MS HUNGARIAN GOVERNING PARTIES WELCOME OPPOSITION'S NATO- RELATED INITIATIVE. National Security Adviser and parliamentary Defense Committee chairman Bela Gyuricza on 24 December said in an interview with "Nepszabadsag" that the opposition's suggestions on amendments to the constitution to make possible the transit of NATO peace keeping troops through Hungary are "a possible base for talks." Zsolt Lanyi, of the Independent Smallholders' Party (FKGP) said the proposal is "suitable for parliamentary debate." But FKGP parliamentary group leader Attila Bank said the Socialist Party's proposed compromise was "a false solution that would only complicate the situation." (See "RFE/RL Newsline, 23 December 1998). MS SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE FOUR DAYS OF CLASHES IN KOSOVA. Serbian security forces exchanged fire with the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) in the Llap region near Podujeva between 24 and 27 December, leaving at least 12 persons dead. It marked the worst fighting since Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke reached an agreement on 12 October. Serbian spokesmen said that the renewed crackdown was necessary following what the spokesmen claimed were attacks by the UCK on individual Serbs. But observers noted that the Serbs' use of up to 100 tanks was a disproportionate response to the UCK's provocations. The observers added that the Serbs' extensive use of heavy armor may be in violation of UN Security Council resolutions. U.S. envoy William Walker, who heads the civilian monitoring mission, announced on 28 December that he had secured a cease- fire. Observers suggested that the agreement was only a temporary truce to allow both sides to evacuate their wounded. PM FUTURE OF MONITORING IN DOUBT. OSCE Chairman Bronislaw Geremek said in a statement in Vienna on 28 December that the "spiral of violence puts in danger the perspective of a peaceful solution to the conflictŠ If the bloodshed and violence escalate, the OSCE would have to reconsider the forms of its activities [in Kosova] in the context of a broader involvement of the international community in the search for a peaceful solution to the conflict." Some 600 unarmed monitors, known as "verifiers," have arrived in Kosova under the terms of the Milosevic-Holbrooke pact. The remaining 1,400 were to have arrived by early January, but Geremek's remarks suggest that the OSCE may reconsider its plans. The London-based "Daily Telegraph" wrote on 28 December that the flow of events is forcing the monitors into the role of peace-keepers, which neither they nor anyone else wants. PM RENEWED 'ETHNIC CLEANSING' IN KOSOVA? The UCK said in a series of statements in recent days that it still respects the overall cease-fire but that it will fight in self-defense wherever Serbian forces attack. Also over the long weekend, up to 1,000 Kosovars fled their homes in the Podujeva region in sub-freezing temperatures. The "Guardian" wrote on 28 December that this could be the beginning of a new wave of displaced persons in the province. One of the main goals of the Milosevic-Holbrooke pact was to enable refugees and displaced persons to go home before the onset of winter. EuroNews Television reported on 28 December that "instances of ethnic cleansing" have taken place, in which Serbian forces have looted and burned Kosovar homes. The London "Times" noted that Kosova remains "a powder keg." Balkan expert Tim Judah told BBC Television that the crux of the problem remains that Serbian and Kosovar goals are irreconcilable. PM NATO'S CLARK SPEAKS OF 'NEW PHASE.' U.S. General Wesley Clark, who is the supreme allied commander in Europe, told dpa in Hamburg on 26 December that "we are seeing the emergence of a new roundŠ of a possible significant escalation in the scope and intensity of the violence by the Serb side. The Yugoslav army has broken its promises to NATOŠ The facts have been passed to NATO political authorities." On 24 December, a White House spokesman said that the U.S. strongly protested to Belgrade the actions of the Serbian security forces. PM ALBANIA WANTS NATO INTERVENTION IN KOSOVA. The Foreign Ministry issued a statement on 24 December condemning the military operation of Serbian forces around Podujeva. The statement called for more international pressure on Belgrade and for NATO intervention in Kosova. Prime Minister Pandeli Majko told a special parliamentary session that "the latest course of events shows that NATO action is a determining factor for the political solution," dpa reported. Majko also called on the opposition Democratic Party to end its boycott and participate in a 28 December parliamentary session, which is slated to approve a resolution on Kosova. Democrat leader Sali Berisha, however, told a press conference in Tirana on 24 December that it is up to the party's National Council to decide about a possible return to parliament. He added that he does not expect his party to return soon, "Albania" reported. FS LEADING KOSOVAR POLITICAL PRISONER ORDERED BACK TO JAIL. The Prishtina district court has sentenced some 15 Kosovars to jail terms ranging from three to ten years, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 25 December. Most of those tried come from Kacanik and were charged with "hostile activity" and "terrorism." Berat Luzha, a journalist with the daily "Bujku" and chairman of the Kosova Association of Political Prisoners, was tried in absentia and sentenced to 10 years in prison, KIC news agency added. The Milosevic-Holbrooke pact includes an amnesty for all offenses connected with the fighting this year except for war crimes. PM MILOSEVIC RESHUFFLES ARMY COMMAND. The Yugoslav president announced a series of new appointments to top military positions on 25 December. These include the promotion of General Nebojsa Pavkovic, who headed the Prishtina Corps, to become Commander of the Third Army, which includes Kosova, Reuters reported. The shuffle follows the sacking of General Momcilo Perisic as chief- of-staff one month ago. Milosevic has never fully trusted the army and instead built up the paramilitary police force as his Praetorian Guard. PM REPUBLIKA SRPSKA PARLIAMENT BACKS DODIK. Muslim, Croatian and moderate Serbian deputies voted in Banja Luka on 24 December to keep Prime Minister Milorad Dodik in office. Three days later, President Nikola Poplasen said that he nonetheless wants his fellow hard-liner Dragan Kalinic to head the cabinet, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM DRUG BUST IN MACEDONIA TO HERALD NEW POLICY? Customs police on the Greek border on 24 December discovered the largest illegal shipment of marijuana in Macedonia to date. The cannabis, which was hidden on a truck, has a street value of $1.5 million. An RFE/RL correspondent in Skopje said that the bust reflects the seriousness of the new government of Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski in cleaning up smuggling and corruption. The correspondent added that the marijuana haul is but the "tip of the iceberg," and that observers expect the authorities to launch further drug busts in coming weeks. PM BLAST DESTROYS CENTRAL ALBANIAN POWER LINE. An explosion destroyed a high-voltage power line in central Albania on 25 December. It was the fifth such blast this year (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 December 1998). The Interior Ministry issued a statement blaming the attack on unspecified saboteurs seeking to "destabilize the country." Government officials have linked the opposition to previous blasts, but did not name specific suspects. Police have not made any arrests. Democratic Party Secretary Fatos Beja condemned the blast on 25 December as a "terrorist act [against] the whole population." He called on police to bring the bombers to court, "Rilindja Demokratike" reported. FS FITCH IBCA DOWNGRADES ROMANIA'S RATING. The international European rating agency Fitch IBCA announced on 23 December it was downgrading Romania's rating for servicing its long- term foreign debt from BB to B and the rating for servicing its domestic debt from BBB to BB, Mediafax reported. Two American rating agencies, Moody's and Standard & Poor, twice downgraded Romania's country risk in recent months. Fitch IBCA cited as reasons Romania's current account deficit of about 7 percent of the Gross Domestic Product and the country's continued economic decline, estimated at 5 percent of the GDP in 1998. It said this renders doubtful Romania's capability to service in 1999 its nearly $ 3 billion foreign debt or to raise from lenders the $ 5 billion needed to cover both the external debt and the current deficit account. MS POLLS SHOWS ROMANIANS UNDECIDED ON POLITICAL OPTIONS. A public opinion poll conducted by the Center for Urban and Rural Sociology on behalf of the National Liberal Party shows that nearly half (47 percent) of Romanians are undecided about their political options, the media reported on 23 December. Among decided voters, 29.8 percent support the Democratic Convention of Romania, closely followed by the opposition Party of Social Democracy in Romania (28.5 percent). The extremist Greater Romania Party (PRM) is third (17.3), followed by the Democratic Party (10.5), the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania (6.1) and the Alliance for Romania ( APR, 5.2 percent). In a presidential contest, President Emil Constantinescu would garner 30 percent of the vote, former president Ion Iliescu 26.2, PRM leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor 17.3, APR leader Teodor Melescanu 15.1 and Democratic Party chairman Petre Roman 7.8 percent. MS LUCINSCHI POSTPONES SUMMIT. President Petru Lucinschi on 24 December postponed a summit meeting with Transdniester leader Igor Smirnov, scheduled for 25 December, Infotag and Flux reported. Lucinschi's representative at the talks with the separatists, Ion Lesan, said the postponement was due to the fact that Lucinschi's "presence in Chisinau was necessary in order for him to participate in the search for solutions to some social and economic problems." The meeting was to discuss, among other things, the special status of the separatist region. On the same day, the Moldovan Foreign Ministry released a statement protesting against the recent declarations of Russian Liberal Democratic Party leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky in Tiraspol and calling them a "gross interference in Moldovan internal affairs" (see "RFE/RL Newsline, 23 December 1998). MS MOLDOVAN PARLIAMENT REJECTS PRESIDENTIAL APPEAL ON ADMINISTRATIVE LAW. The parliament on 23 December reconfirmed its earlier decision to include the Taraclia district in the Cahul County, thus rejecting President Petru Lucinschi's appeal to grant the district (inhabited largely by ethnic Bulgarians) administrative independence, Infotag and Flux reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 December 1998). Iurie Rosca, co-chairman of the Democratic Convention of Moldova (CDM), threatened to dismiss parliament chairman Dumitru Diacov unless the law was reconfirmed. Diacov said this amounted to a "dictatorship of the CDM" over the governmental Alliance for Democracy and Reforms (APDR). In an interview with "Novoye Vremia" on 25 December, Diacov said that "some partners in the ruling coalition are beginning to sabotage the terms on which the APDR has been set up and seek to provoke a conflict between the president and the parliament," Infotag reported. MS BULGARIAN PROSECUTOR GENERAL ASKS COURT TO VOID MONARCHY ABOLITION. Prosecutor General Ivan Tatarchev asked the Constitutional Court to declare void the 1946 referendum that abolished the monarchy, Reuters and AP reported on 23 December. Tatarchev says that under the law, the constitution could not be changed by a referendum. The court is expected to rule at the end of January. The appeal coincided with a visit to Bulgaria by former king Simeon II, who was received by President Petar Stoyanov on 23 December. Stoyanov showed the former monarch Bulgaria's new coat of arms, in which the royal regalia have been restored. A presidential spokesman said they discussed ways to improve Bulgaria's international image and that Simeon pledged "to work for his country, as he always has done." MS TURKISH COMMEMORATION MONUMENT DEFACED IN BULGARIA. A monument in Momchilgrad commemorating the victims of totalitarianism and of enforced assimilation of Bulgaria's ethnic Turkish minority in the 1980s, has been desecrated, BTA reported on 27 December. Lyutvi Mestan, a deputy representing the ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms, told a rally in Momchilgrad that Bulgaria's respect of minorities' rights "is still below that of European standards." MS END NOTE END NOTE: A DIVISIVE CALL FOR UNITY by Paul Goble An agreement between the Russian and Belarusian presidents to move toward the merger of their countries is sending shockwaves through both countries, the other post-Soviet states, and the West as well. And it is having this effect even though many people in all three places are now dismissing this accord either because they oppose such a new union state or because they doubt that these two former Soviet republics will ever form one. On 25 December, Russian President Boris Yeltsin and his Belarusian counterpart Alyaksandr Lukashenka signed a series of accords in the Kremlin that both men said pointed toward the unification of the two countries into a single state, possibly as soon as mid-1999. And while they promised that there would be "public discussion" of this idea -- the Russian press even called for a plebiscite -- the two presidents said that they had already agreed to introduce a single currency and common tax system early next year. Not surprisingly, this announcement has had an immediate impact in the two countries most directly affected. In Russia, reformers have spoken out against this move. On the one hand, they are concerned about the way in which this agreement was reached. And on the other, they view it as a threat to democracy and free market economics, with many fearful that such a reunification would transform the authoritarian Belarusian president into a major player on the Russian political scene. That latter possibility -- a Lukashenka run for the Russian presidency -- has somewhat dampened the enthusiasm of Russian communists and nationalists who otherwise welcome what they see as a restoration of the past and a challenge to NATO and the West. Consequently, at least some of them may oppose the reunification of the two countries for the same reason they have blocked it earlier: the enormous financial costs unity would impose on Russia itself. Meanwhile, in Belarus, the impact of the accord has been still more dramatic. Given the extent of Lukashenka's increasingly authoritarian control in Minsk, Belarusian officials have dutifully backed the Yeltsin-Lukashenka deal. But democratic activists opposed to it clashed with police over the weekend. And the Belarusian Popular Front issued a statement noting that the accord reflects Lukashenka's willingness "to eliminate Belarusian statehood" in order to enhance his power. This fundamental difference of opinion sets the stage for ever sharper political combat between Lukashenka and those Belarusians who are committed not only to national independence but to democracy, free markets, and cooperation with the West. As dramatic as that clash is likely to be in the coming weeks and months, the consequences of the Yeltsin-Lukashenka accord on Russian relations with the other post-Soviet states and with the West are likely to prove far more significant. The Yeltsin-Lukashenka accord appears certain to presage an expanded effort by Moscow to promote the reintegration of the former Soviet republics. And such a move will almost certainly exacerbate relations within and among them. Within many of these countries, some political factions will welcome proposals for closer relations, given their current economic difficulties. But there will be many more who will oppose any such moves lest they lead as with Belarus to the extinction of national statehood. And whatever the outcome in the short term, such domestic conflicts are likely to leave many of the governments involved weakened politically, thus setting the stage for increased Russian influence there despite Moscow's current weakness. But the greatest challenge by far that is posed by the Yeltsin-Lukashenka agreement may be to Western governments: First, it represents a direct challenge to NATO which is now scheduled to include Poland as a member later this spring. Second, it highlights the continuing influence in Moscow of those interested in reversing the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union and calls into question Yeltsin's past commitments to oppose any such revision. And third, by setting the stage for greater conflict among the post-Soviet states as well as between Moscow and the West, this agreement may force Western governments to play a very different role than they would like. While increased conflict in the region may lead some to advocate a further retrenchment of Western involvement in the region, increased conflict between Moscow and the West would likely have precisely the opposite effect. And for all these reasons, the Yeltsin-Lukashenka accord appears likely to define the nature of many conflicts in the post-Soviet states during the next year as well as the ways in which all the players will respond. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Copyright (c) 1998 RFE/RL, Inc. 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