RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol 2, No. 23, Part I, 4 February 1998

A daily report of developments in Eastern and Southeastern Europe, Russia,
the Caucasus and Central Asia prepared by the staff of Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty.

This is Part I, a compilation of news concerning Russia, Transcaucasia and
Central Asia. Part II covers Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe and
is distributed simultaneously as a second document.  Back issues of RFE/RL
NewsLine and the OMRI Daily Digest are online at RFE/RL's Web site:
http://www.rferl.org/newsline


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Headlines, Part I

* YELTSIN CAUTIONS CLINTON AGAINST ATTACKING IRAQ

* OFFICIALS SAY RUSSIA MAY USE SECURITY COUNCIL VETO

* ARMENIAN PRESIDENT RESIGNS

* End Note: A FORMULA FOR CHECHEN INDEPENDENCE
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RUSSIA

YELTSIN CAUTIONS CLINTON AGAINST ATTACKING IRAQ... President Boris Yeltsin
told reporters at the Kremlin on 4 February that if Bill Clinton orders an
attack on Iraq, the U.S. president may start World War Three, ITAR-TASS
reported. He commented that making threats of military force against Iraq
was not typical of Clinton. Yeltsin added he had made it clear to his U.S.
counterpart that Russia is against any attack on Iraq. The Russian
president also spoke by telephone with French President Jacques Chirac and
British Prime Minister Tony Blair, both of whose countries are members of
the UN Security Council. Noting that they have endured such problems for
seven years, Yeltsin asked whether they could they not wait another few
months to allow more time for diplomacy. BP

...WHILE SPOKESMAN RUSHES TO CLARIFY STATEMENT. Presidential spokesman
Sergei Yastrzhembskii was quick to clarify Yeltsin's statement that the
Iraqi crisis might turn into World War Three, ITAR-TASS reported.
Yastrzhembskii stressed that it would be "absurd and ridiculous" if the
press, particularly in the U.S., were to interpret that statement to mean
Russia would take retaliatory measures if Clinton ordered an attack on
Iraq. BP

OFFICIALS SAY RUSSIA MAY USE SECURITY COUNCIL VETO. Addressing a closed
emergency session of the State Duma on 3 February, Foreign Minister
Yevgenii Primakov said Russia will use its veto in the UN Security Council
to prevent the adoption of a resolution authorizing the use of force
against Iraq, RFE/RL's Moscow bureau reported. Primakov's statement drew
applause from the chamber. Duma First Deputy Speaker Vladimir Ryzhkov of
the Our Home Is Russia faction told NTV the next day that the chances are
"very high" that Russia will use its veto when the  Security Council
discusses the situation in Iraq. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister
Grigorii Karasin and his Chinese counterpart, Zhang Deguang, discussed Iraq
during talks in Beijing on 4 February, Reuters reported. A Chinese Foreign
Ministry spokesman said the two countries' positions on Iraq "are in
agreement." LB

DUMA CALLS FOR REVIEWING SANCTIONS IF IRAQ IS ATTACKED. The Duma on 4
February approved a non-binding resolution asking Yeltsin to review
Russia's adherence to UN sanctions if the U.S. carries out a military
attack on Iraq without the consent of the UN Security Council, RFE/RL's
Moscow bureau reported. Deputies approved the resolution by an overwhelming
margin of 323 to 19 with one abstention. The document also calls on Russia
to provide humanitarian aid to Iraq. During the debate over the resolution,
First Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told Duma deputies that Russia
does not have the right to unilaterally review the UN embargo on Iraq.
During the 3 February Duma session, Primakov also criticized the proposed
resolution, saying the government will not unilaterally withdraw from UN
sanctions, ITAR-TASS reported. Primakov argued that the Duma should instead
pass a statement condemning the use of force against Iraq. LB

DUMA LEADERS WARN AGAINST STRIKES. Duma Speaker Gennadii Seleznev said on 3
February that he is "astonished at the irresponsibility of the world
community" in its handling of the situation in Iraq, Russian news agencies
reported. Seleznev, a prominent member of the Communist Party, warned that
the crisis "could push the world to the brink of a third world war."
Communist Party leader Gennadii Zyuganov told journalists that political
and diplomatic means for resolving the crisis "have by no means been
exhausted." Liberal Democratic Party of Russia leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky
also denounced possible military action against Iraq during the Duma's 3
February emergency session. Speaking to journalists the same day, Aleksandr
Shokhin, the leader of the pro-government Our Home Is Russia faction, said
U.S. military action against Iraq would "affect Duma decisions on a number
of documents, including the START-2 treaty," Interfax reported. LB

RUSSIAN PRESS FEARS "LOSS OF FACE." "Novye Izvestiya" on 3 February and
"Izvestiya" the next day claimed that Iraqi intransigence is undercutting
Russian diplomatic efforts. Both newspapers noted Russia's role in averting
a conflict in November, when UN inspectors were denied access to suspect
facilities in Iraq. "Izvestiya" wrote that the quick Iraqi denial of a
diplomatic breakthrough following a Russia Foreign Ministry announcement to
that effect has "degraded the Foreign Ministry and the Russian president."
The daily argued that Baghdad is using Moscow as an "instrument to create
chaos in the UN Security Council." According to  "Novye Izvestiya," the
"attempt to save Baghdad threatens to take away the last vestiges of
[Russian] self-respect." It commented that the only way Moscow can now
avert an attack is to leave Russian envoy Viktor Posuvalyuk in Baghdad as a
deterrent to bombing. BP

COURT DECLARES NORILSK NICKEL SALE LEGAL. The Moscow District Federal
Arbitration Court has upheld a ruling of the Moscow Arbitration Court,
which determined that last year's sale of a 38 percent stake in Norilsk
Nickel was legal, Interfax reported on 3 February. A company linked to
Oneksimbank won the auction for the stake in August, but the circumstances
surrounding the sale provoked controversy and criticism from market
analysts (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 and 7 August 1997). The little-known
company Taiga, which contested the legality of the Norilsk sale in court,
charged that laws on hard-currency transactions were broken during the sale
and that potential bidders were not properly informed in advance about the
terms of the auction. The company cited a report by the Audit Chamber,
which has reached similar conclusions and recommended that the Norilsk sale
be annulled. LB

BEREZOVSKII RESPONDS TO PRIVATIZATION CRITICS. Boris Berezovskii continues
to defend the privatization policy carried out in previous years by First
Deputy Prime Minister Anatolii Chubais, who is now one of Berezovskii's
major political opponents. During the World Economic Forum in Davos,
Switzerland, Berezovskii again responded to criticism of Russian
privatization voiced by U.S. billionaire George Soros (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 12 January 1998). Berezovskii, a major beneficiary of the
controversial "loans for shares" auctions in 1995 and 1996, told
"Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 3 February that it is "hypocritical" to say that
stakes in companies were sold for below market value. At the time those
auctions were held, he argued, no foreign investor was willing to risk
money on Russia. In an interview published in "Kommersant-Daily" the same
day, Berezovskii said that "privatization cannot be fair in principle. It
is an achievement of Chubais that at least it was done without bloodshed."
LB

DISPUTE CONTINUES OVER STATUS FOR CHECHNYA.  Following Chechen President
Aslan Maskhadov's rejection of Moscow's latest  offer of associate status
for Chechnya within the Russian Federation, Russian Security Council
Secretary Ivan Rybkin told Interfax on 3 February that the Chechen
leadership should stop daydreaming and start worrying about the fate of
their people. Rybkin added that the Chechens overwhelmingly want to be part
of Russia.  Maskhadov said that Chechnya would never agree to that.
Meanwhile, in yet another bid to gain an international status, officials in
Grozny offered to mediate the Iraqi crisis. PG

REGIONS WANT SHARES IN STATE-OWNED COMPANIES. Tomsk Governor Viktor Kress
says he will ask Yeltsin to allow the transfer of a 34 percent state-owned
stake in the Eastern Oil Company to Tomsk Oblast, Interfax reported on 3
February. The Rosprom-Yukos already owns a controlling stake in the Eastern
Oil Company, which has major facilities in Tomsk. Two attempts to sell the
34 percent state-owned stake in the company have failed. In November, only
one bid was submitted for the auction, while  two bids were submitted last
month but were withdrawn before the closing date. "Rossiiskie vesti"
reported on 3 February that Kemerovo Oblast Governor Aman Tuleev has called
for 25 percent stakes in 17 large enterprises to be transferred to Kemerovo
authorities. He says his administration would manage the shares more
effectively than the federal authorities, which "are doing nothing with
them." LB

TRADE UNIONS PROTEST WAGE ARREARS. The Federation of Independent Trade
Unions (FNPR) organized nationwide protests on 3 February to protest
persistent wage arrears. The action was timed to coincide with scheduled
Duma hearings on workers' rights, although the Duma's discussions of Iraq
pre-empted those hearings. Although ITAR-TASS reported that demonstrations
were held in many regions, the protest attracted far less media attention
than similar actions called by the FNPR in November 1996 and March 1997.
FNPR leaders have expressed concern about a recent Constitutional Court
decision striking down a provision in the civil code that requires
enterprises to pay wages before taxes (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 January
1998). In an appeal to Yeltsin, Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, and the
speakers of both houses of the parliament, the FNPR has also cast doubt on
claims that the government has paid all wage arrears to state employees. LB

BORDER SERVICE CHIEF SAYS MERGER WITH FSB TO GO AHEAD. Federal Border
Service Director Nikolai Bordyuzha announced on 3 February that a
presidential order on subordinating the border service to the Federal
Security Service (FSB) will be implemented soon, Interfax reported. He said
"coordinated actions" by the two services will intensify "the battle
against organized crime on the Russian state border." Bordyuzha's
predecessor, Andrei Nikolaev, has charged that current law does not allow
the border service to be merged with the FSB (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3
February 1998). In an interview with the 2-8 February edition of the weekly
"Novaya gazeta," Nikolaev described the plans as "apparat games" and said
such a merger was not discussed during his tenure as border service chief.
At the same time, he has not criticized his successor, and he told
"Moskovskii komsomolets" on 3 February that he recommended Bordyuzha for
the post. LB

AGRARIANS MAY SUPPORT CHANGES TO ELECTORAL LAW. Agrarian Party leader
Mikhail Lapshin says his party may support Yeltsin's proposal to eliminate
proportional representation if such a change would create 110-120 largely
rural single-member districts, "Kommersant-Daily" reported on 4 February.
In the 1995 elections to the State Duma, the Agrarian Party fell short of
the 5 percent barrier for parties and consequently received none of the 225
Duma seats allocated by proportional representation. Although the Agrarians
won 20 of the 225 seats elected in single-member districts, more than any
group except the Communists, they still depend on deputies "donated" from
the Communist Party in order to maintain the 35 members needed for official
registration as a Duma faction. Lapshin has asked the Central Electoral
Commission to calculate how many districts would be in rural areas if
Yeltsin's proposal became law. LB

PROSECUTOR WANTS MORE CASES AGAINST REGIONAL LEGISLATORS.
Prosecutor-General Yurii Skuratov has instructed regional prosecutors to
press criminal charges against deputies in regional legislatures when such
charges are justified, "Izvestiya" reported on 29 January. Vladimir
Kirakozov, an adviser to Skuratov, told  the daily that nearly every
regional legislature in Russia has at least one local criminal. Some
regions have attempted to grant their legislators immunity, but the
Constitutional Court struck down such a law in Kaliningrad Oblast in 1995
and a similar provision in the Tambov Oblast charter last December. The
court said only a federal law can determine whether regional legislators
should be granted immunity. Both the constitution and federal law already
provide protection from criminal prosecution for deputies in the State Duma
and Federation Council. LB

TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

ARMENIAN PRESIDENT RESIGNS... Speaking on national television on 3
February, Levon Ter-Petrossyan said he was resigning in response to demands
by "state bodies well known to you." He argued that the move is aimed at
preventing "instability" in the country and signals "the defeat of the
party of "honorable peace in Armenia." He called on the nation to display
"restraint" and ensure early free presidential elections. Ter-Petrossyan
said, however, that differences over Nagorno-Karabakh are just a pretext
that hard-line forces are using to make him resign. Drawing parallels with
Israel's defeated Labor government, Ter-Petrossyan said the victory of the
hard-liners is a "temporary" one and that sooner or later his ideas will
prevail.  PG

...LOSES POLITICAL BASE. Ter-Petrossyan's resignation followed mounting
attacks on him for his Karabakh policy and the defection of 40 of the 96
deputies from the Hanrapetutyun bloc, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reported.
Most of those defecting went over to parties and groups backing Prime
Minister Robert Kocharian, who has opposed Ter-Petrossyan over making
concessions to achieve peace in Karabakh. In addition to the parliamentary
defections, Armenian government officials sought to resign. On 3 February,
Ter-Petrossyan had turned down resignation requests by the entire
management of the Armenian Central Bank. PG

SHEVARDNADZE TAKES TOUGH LINE ON ABKHAZIA. In a speech to the parliament on
3 February, Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze said that force might
have to be used in the Abkhazia dispute if diplomatic efforts fail to make
progress, ITAR-TASS reported.  He also called on Moscow to compensate
Georgia for military equipment that the Russian government has withdrawn
from Georgian territory. Such compensation, he said, would more than cover
Georgia's current debts to Russia.  The Georgian leader went on to say  he
is setting up an independent commission to fight corruption and black
market activities. He added  that the  black and gray markets now account
for almost half of the country's economic activity. PG

AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT ESCAPES BOMBING. Azerbaijani officials defused a bomb
placed in a building where Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev was scheduled
to speak on 3 February, Interfax reported. Two suspects have been arrested.
The same day, Aliev told a visiting Turkish diplomat that Ankara should do
more to pressure Western oil companies into supporting the Baku-Ceyhan
route for Caspian basin oil. PG

SPECIAL UNIT FORMED TO GUARD UN WORKERS IN TAJIKISTAN. President Imomali
Rakhmonov signed a decree on 3 February creating a special unit to guard UN
employees working in Tajikistan, ITAR-TASS and Reuters reported. The
120-man unit is comprised of 60 soldiers from the Tajik Defense Ministry
and another 60 from the United Tajik Opposition. Last year, bandits
frequently kidnapped UN employees and held them for ransom. In the fall, a
French woman was killed during a rescue operation. BP

TURKMEN PRESIDENT ADDRESSES PARLIAMENT. Saparmurat Niyazov has told the
parliament that the country's agricultural sector needs improving, RFE/RL
correspondents in Ashgabat and Interfax reported on 3 February. Last year,
only half of the target for grain was met, while cotton production was just
41 percent of the expected total. Niyazov criticized law-enforcement
agencies and the military, which, he said, are frequently not "a model of
decency." He also announced  an amnesty will take place on 19 February,
which is both Turkmen Flag Day and Niyazov's birthday, for 7,000 people
guilty of minor offenses. RFE/RL correspondents, meanwhile, report that
there are plans to send between 4,000 and 5,000 prisoners to a new facility
near Karabogaz Lake, close to the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea. That
region is an ecological disaster area. BP

GAZPROM PULLS OUT OF TURKMEN-PAKISTANI PIPELINE PROJECT. Interfax reported
on 3 February that Russia's Gazprom has sold its stake in the project for a
pipeline running from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan. The U.S.
company Unocal has bought 7 percent of Gazprom's 10 percent share, while
four companies from Japan, Korea, and Pakistan have acquired the remaining
3 percent. BP

RUSSIA COMPLAINS ABOUT UZBEK TV BROADCAST. A recent  Uzbek Television
broadcast about the meeting of the heads of state from the four-country
Customs Union "did not go unnoticed" by Russia, ITAR-TASS reported on 3
February. The agency said that "as a result of political games, several CIS
states could easily become dependent on their elder brother" (a reference
to Russia). Russia. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Gennadii Tarasov
said Moscow regrets that "the television company of a country friendly to
us" would air such a report. BP

END NOTE

A FORMULA FOR CHECHEN INDEPENDENCE

by Paul Goble

        Advisers close to Russian President Boris Yeltsin are now prepared
to recognize the virtual independence of Chechnya. But their willingness to
do so is generating a backlash among other Russian officials who advocate
the use of force to suppress the Chechens.
        Last week, Russian Security Council Secretary Ivan Rybkin said that
Moscow has offered Chechnya sovereignty and independence "based on
interdependence with Russia." He described such a status as associate
membership in the Russian Federation. He also said it would mean that no
Russian troops would be stationed on Chechen territory.
        At the same time, Rybkin repeated past Russian statements that
Moscow would never agree to the complete independence of Chechnya. And he
noted that there are many ways that would enable Moscow to "maintain a
small thread" linking the Russian Federation and Chechnya.
        But those qualifications were undercut by Rybkin's own suggestion
that Chechnya would enjoy a status much like that of Bavaria within
Germany. Despite the autonomy that region has in the Federal Republic, Bonn
has never committed itself to avoid stationing German troops
there--something Rybkin said Moscow was prepared to do in the case of
Chechnya.
        The significance of Rybkin's remarks were underscored by Yeltsin's
decision last week to form a new interagency task force within the Russian
Security Council and to appoint as its head Russian Deputy Prime Minister
Ruslan Abdulatipov, who has long advocated that Moscow be more forthcoming
in its relations with Chechnya.
        Not surprisingly, many both in Chechnya and Russia see all this for
what it is: a search for some kind of figleaf that will allow Chechnya to
be independent while allowing Moscow to claim that it really is not. The
Chechen leadership is thus likely to continue to take a hard line on
independence, viewing this latest Russian concession as but one more step
toward full recognition of their status.
        Indeed, Rybkin himself clearly anticipated such a response and
sought to warn Grozny that his proposal was the best they could hope for.
He cited unofficial polls showing that most Chechens want to maintain close
ties with Russia. And he said he was "alarmed" by what he called a decline
in the authority of Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov.
        But a potentially more serious reaction to this shift in the
position of those around Yeltsin came from Russian Interior Minister
Anatolii Kulikov. In an interview last week, Kulikov said that Chechnya
should be declared a "rebel territory in which Russian laws are not
observed" and that Moscow should be prepared to renew its military campaign
against Grozny.
        Such sabre-rattling appeals to many in the Russian parliament and
some in the Russian population. But there are both domestic and
international reasons suggesting Moscow would be very reluctant to restart
the conflict.
        Not only is the Russian population unwilling to support any new
campaign, but Russian human rights groups have already denounced Kulikov's
ideas. And however reluctant foreign governments may be to press Moscow to
recognize Chechen independence, they would certainly be opposed to any
resumption of the fighting.
        Reflecting those considerations, Rybkin himself dismissed Kulikov's
proposals as unworkable. He said he was opposed to any use of Russian
military force against Chechnya: "Evil leads only to evil, especially when
a whole community or a whole nation is punished," he said.
        Even more contemptuously, the Russian national security adviser
said "many are writing reports like novels without travelling to Chechnya,
without having visited it a single time for the past 18 months." That
comment was a direct reference to Kulikov. And Rybkin concluded that "these
lies should not reach the president's office."
        As the Rybkin-Kulikov exchange shows, Moscow remains divided on how
to deal with Chechnya. But the Rybkin's words and Abdulatipov's appointment
suggest that those closest to Yeltsin are now committed to finding a
formula for Chechen independence that gives Moscow a plausible basis to
claim it has not in fact granted that status.
        It remains unclear whether that commitment will be sufficient to
guide Russian policy and whether any such formula will satisfy the Chechen
government now or in the future. But the latest statements in the Russian
capital suggest that Grozny is closer to achieving its goals than at any
time in the past.





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