We are always the same age inside. - Gertrude Stein
RFE/RL NEWSLINE

RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 1, No. 160, Part II, 14 November 1997



A daily report of developments in Eastern and Southeastern Europe,
Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia prepared by the staff of Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

This is Part II, a compilation of news concerning Central, Eastern, and
Southeastern Europe.  Part I covers Russia,
Transcaucasia and Central Asia and is distributed simultaneously as a
second document.  Back issues of RFE/RL NewsLine and the OMRI
Daily Digest are online at RFE/RL's Web site:
http://www.rferl.org/newsline

EUROPE: Has The West Embraced The East? -- a five-part series about
Europe's multilateral organizations and whether and how they've
aided the integration of Central and Eastern Europe with the West --
is online at the RFE/RL Web site.
http://www.rferl.org/nca/special/multilateral/index.html
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Headlines, Part II

*KYIV UNENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT CHUBAIS VISIT


*HAVEL TO REMAIN IN HOSPITAL LONGER THAN PLANNED


*ATTACK ON PLAVSIC'S HEADQUARTERS

End Note
TWO SCENARIOS FOR BOSNIA
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EAST-CENTRAL EUROPE

KYIV UNENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT CHUBAIS VISIT. Russian First Deputy
Prime Minister Anatolii Chubais left Moscow on 14 November for
talks in Kyiv on settling outstanding bilateral debts. Observers say,
however, that the Ukrainian authorities would prefer dealing with
former Russian Security Council Deputy Secretary Boris Berezovskii,
an RFE/RL correspondent in Kyiv reported on 13 November.
Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma was reportedly disappointed by
Berezovskii's recent dismissal. Ukrainian observers also expect that
during the presidential campaign scheduled for 1999, Chubais will
back former Prime Minister Yevgenii Marchuk rather than Kuchma,
whom Berezovskii was expected to support. LB

RUSSIAN PRIVATE TV TO SOON BEGIN BROADCASTING IN UKRAINE.
"Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported on 10 November that after months of
negotiations, Russia's private network NTV is close to an agreement
with the Ukrainian authorities to allow the network to begin
broadcasting in Ukraine. If the plans go ahead, the newspaper said,
NTV president Igor Malashenko may become Kuchma's "main image-
maker" during the upcoming presidential campaign. LB

BELARUSIAN PRESIDENT SETS 1998 ECONOMIC TARGETS. President
Alyaksandr Lukashenka on 13 November issued a decree setting the
country's economic targets for 1998, Russian agencies reported. GDP
is forecast to grow by 7-8 percent, industrial output by 8-9 percent,
consumer goods production by 10-11 percent, and agricultural
output by 4-5 percent. Inflation is to be kept below 2 percent a
month. As a result, real incomes are forecast to grow by 6-7 percent.
Meanwhile, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 14 November reported that the
number of unemployed in Belarus has dropped to 2.4 percent. LF

ESTONIA'S ONLY POLITICAL PRISONER WILL BE PARDONED. By a
vote of 36 to zero with two abstentions, the parliament has approved
an amnesty of anyone convicted of treason, ETA reported on 13
November 1997. Twenty-eight lawmakers did not take part in the
vote. The amnesty applies only to Tiit Madisson, Estonia's sole
political prisoner, who in September 1996 was sentenced to two
years in prison for a publication that called for overthrowing the
country's constitutional order (see "End Note," "RFE/RL Newsline," 25
August 1997). Madisson has repeatedly protested his innocence and
has appealed to the European Court of Justice. The amnesty goes into
force on 14 November. JC

POLISH FOREIGN MINISTER IN VILNIUS. Poland remains committed
to its policy of "strategic partnership" with Lithuania, Bronislaw
Geremek stressed during his visit to Vilnius on 13 November, BNS
reported. Following a meeting with his Lithuanian counterpart,
Algirdas Saudargas, Geremek said a commission of the bilateral
Intergovernmental Cooperation Council has been established to
streamline the countries' policies on European security issues.
Geremek also noted that Poland "fully understands" why the Baltic
States rejected Russia's recent offer of security guarantees. He added
that Warsaw is also wary of such an offer because "as one historian
put it, the Russian army often used to come ahead of any guarantees
whatsoever." JC

SOLIDARITY BLOC REGISTERS NEW PARTY. Solidarity Electoral Action
(AWS), the senior partner in Poland's new coalition government, filed
an application with the Warsaw Court on 13 November to register a
new party. The registration motion was signed by 10,000 people. The
founding committee of the party, the Social Movement of the AWS,
includes Solidarity leader Marian Krzaklewski, Prime Minister Jerzy
Buzek, and lower house speaker Maciej Pluzynski. Krzaklewski said
recently that new party will espouse Christian values and "market-
solidarity" principles. JC

KWASNIEWSKI WANTS TO OPEN COMMUNIST-ERA FILES. Polish
President Aleksander Kwasniewski wants to make public
communist-era secret service files, dpa quoted a presidential
spokesman as saying on 13 November. Kwasniewski has submitted to
the parliament a bill providing for the opening up of those files.
Observers suggest that Kwasniewski, an ex-Communist, may have
wanted to preempt a similar move by the center-right coalition,
which has said it wants to settle old scores with former communist
leaders. JC

ANOTHER CZECH PROTEST RALLY AGAINST RACISM. Several
thousand people demonstrated in Brno on 13 November to protest
what they called growing racism in the country, CTK reported. The
demonstration came several days after skinheads in Prague killed a
Sudanese student. That killing has prompted similar demonstrations
in other Czech cities, amid calls for the government to take steps
against anti-foreign and racially motivated violence (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 11 November 1997). MS

HAVEL TO REMAIN IN HOSPITAL LONGER THAN PLANNED. Miroslav
Cerbak, head of the team of doctors treating President Vaclav Havel,
issued a statement on 13 November saying Havel's condition has not
changed and his chronic bronchitis is complicating the treatment for
pneumonia. The team of doctors says it is does not know when Havel
will be released from the hospital, CTK reported. MS

HUNGARIAN PREMIER URGES PRO-NATO VOTE. Gyula Horn,
addressing a rally in Budapest on 13 November, urged Hungarians to
approve the country's entry into NATO in the 16 November
referendum. He told the crowd that the invitation to join the alliance
means that, for the first time this century, the world has
acknowledged Hungarian accomplishments. He also called on all
segments of society to put aside political differences and combine
forces to seize "this historic opportunity." MSZ

HUNGARY, ITALY, SLOVENIA TO FORM JOINT PEACE-KEEPING FORCE.
Hungary, Italy, and Slovenia have signed an agreement to set up a
joint peacekeeping unit, Hungarian media reported on 13 November.
The unit will consist of three artillery battalions and will have joint
headquarters in Italy, according to Hungarian Defense Minister
Gyorgy Keleti. The three countries' defense ministers, meeting in
Budapest on 13 November, said their cooperation is not aimed at any
other country but "could be open to other states that want to join."
MSZ

SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

ATTACK ON PLAVSIC'S HEADQUARTERS. Two masked gunmen
attacked the offices of Republika Srpska President Biljana Plavsic's
Serbian People's League (SNS)on 13 November in Bijeljina. Damage
was extensive, and UN police are investigating the incident. Plavsic
founded the SNS in August after she broke with the Serbian
Democratic Party (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 August 1997). The
attack comes less than two weeks before the Bosnian Serb
parliamentary elections, scheduled for 22-23 November. PM

MUSLIMS STONE UN BUS. A crowd of Muslim refugees near Tuzla
stoned a UN bus carrying Serbian visitors from Serb-held areas into
Muslim-controlled territory on 13 November. Two Serbian men and
one Muslim woman were injured. The Muslims were blocking traffic
in the area to protest the cutoff of electricity to their refugee camp
owing to unpaid bills. It was the third attack by local Muslims
against Serbian visitors this year. The Dayton agreements ensure
freedom of movement across the former front lines. PM

MUSLIMS WANT SERBS IN U.S. PROGRAM. Mirza Hajric, an adviser to
Alija Izetbegovic, the Muslim member of the Bosnian joint
presidency, said in Sarajevo on 13 November that the Bosnian Serbs
should be allowed to join the U.S.-sponsored "Train and Equip"
military program. Hajric stressed that Serbian participation in the
program, which already includes Muslims and Croats, would be a
first step toward creating a joint army, which might then qualify for
membership in NATO's Partnership for Peace program. Washington
recently turned down Plavsic's request to join the "Train and Equip"
program (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 November 1997). Bosnian Serb
hard-liners oppose Serbian participation in the program. PM

SARAJEVO INVESTIGATES CORRUPTION. The Bosnian federal
government announced in Sarajevo on 13 November that it is
launching a probe into the possible embezzlement of some $30
million in taxes, customs fees, and aid money. Carlos Westendorp, the
international community's chief representative in Bosnia, recently
said he would make public a list of allegedly corrupt officials' names
if the Sarajevo authorities failed to act against the embezzlers by 14
November (see "RFE/RL Bosnian Report," 5 November 1997). PM

MISIC FORMALLY CHARGED WITH WAR CRIMES. Belgrade authorities
formally charged Slobodan Misic with war crimes on 13 November.
Misic recently told the Serbian media that he had killed some 80
Bosnian civilians during the war (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 November
1997). In Zagreb, a court sentenced Mario Maler, a Bosnian Croat, to
one-and-a-half years in prison for mistreating Croatian prisoners
when he was a guard in the Serb-run Stara Gradiska camp in 1992.
PM

NEW PRESS LAW IN SLOVENIA. Justice Minister Tomaz Marusic on
13 November said that criminal legislation will be changed so that
journalists will no longer be prosecuted for disclosing state and army
secrets if their aim in doing so is to expose wrong-doing. The move is
part of a process to bring Slovenian legislation in line with EU
standards. PM

ITALY WARNS CROATIA ON RIGHTS. Italian Foreign Minister
Lamberto Dini told his Croatian counterpart, Mate Granic, in Rome on
13 November that Italy will support Croatia's integration into
European institutions. Dini added, however, that Rome expects Zagreb
to institute "European standards and behavior" in regard to human
and minority rights. Dini and Granic signed several agreements,
including one that will enable the citizens of each country to visit the
other with only their internal identity papers. The conclusion of an
overall Friendship and Cooperation Treaty, however, is being held up
by differences regarding rights to and compensation for the property
once owned by some 150,000 Italian citizens in Dalmatia and Istria.
Italy also wants more schools for Croatia's remaining Italian
minority. PM

STATE OF EMERGENCY IN DALMATIA The Croatian authorities on 13
November declared Split-Dalmatia County a disaster area, following
heavy rains and floods. The power grid was damaged and the ferry
service to the islands disrupted. PM

ALBANIAN COURT CURBS PYRAMID INVESTIGATORS. The
Constitutional Court on 13 November ruled that a key article of the
new law regulating pyramid schemes is unconstitutional, "Dita
Informacion" reported. The court argued that the law gives
government-appointed administrators judicial functions over
property owned by the pyramid companies, which, it said, is in
violation of the principle of separation of powers. FS

ROMANIAN SENATE POSTPONES DEBATE ON EDUCATION LAW. The
Senate has postponed its scheduled debate on government
regulations amending the 1996 education law. Bela Marko, the leader
of the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania (UDMR),
appealed to President Emil Constantinescu on 13 November to
mediate between his group and the National Peasant Party Christian
Democratic (PNTCD). Marko said there have been accusations that the
UDMR is "blackmailing" the PNTCD but the truth is, in fact, the
opposite. He explained that the PNTCD is threatening to withdraw
support for other amendments to the 1996 law supported by the
UDMR if the ethnic Hungarian formation does not agree to history
and geography being taught in the Romanian language in all schools,
RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS

MOLDOVA, UKRAINE, ROMANIA TO JOINTLY COMBAT ORGANIZED
CRIME. The interior ministers of Moldova, Ukraine, and Romania are
to sign in Chisinau on 14 November a declaration on collaboration in
the fight against organized crime, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported.
The declaration follows an accord on jointly combating organized
crime that the three countries' presidents signed at the first meeting
of the Moldova-Ukraine-Romania "trilateral" in Izmail, Ukraine, in
early July. MS

BULGARIAN COMMISSION UNVEILS CORRUPTION IN ARMY. Defense
Minister Georgi Ananiev and Chief of Staff Miho Mihov told a press
conference in Sofia on 12 November that a special audit commission
has discovered large-scale corruption and theft at military facilities
and in the ministry itself under the former cabinet of Socialist Zhan
Videnov. The commission found irregularities in expenditures for
peace-keeping troops assigned to the UN and established missing
equipment from military depots. It said corruption was evident
among officers and officials responsible for food supplies, spare parts
for vehicles, and the safeguarding of weapons and ammunition, an
RFE/RL correspondent in Sofia reported. MS

END NOTE

TWO SCENARIOS FOR BOSNIA

by A. Ross Johnson

        U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, NATO Secretary-
General Javier Solana, Jacques Klein, who is the international
community's second most important representative in Bosnia, and
other international leaders have recently called for continued NATO
and U.S. military presence in Bosnia after SFOR's mandate expires in
June 1998.
        Bosnia's future was debated at an October conference in
Washington sponsored by the RFE/RL Fund, Inc. Participants
included Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, Senator Joe Biden,
Ambassador Warren Zimmerman, and a number of experts on the
Yugoslav region. Three major conclusions were drawn at that
conference.
        First, continued U.S. involvement and military presence are
essential to maintain peace in Bosnia-Herzegovina, prevent the
conflict from being rekindled (and perhaps spreading to neighboring
countries), and give democratic institutions a chance to develop.
While viewing a continued military presence as essential,
participants had differing views on the efficacy of utilizing military
forces to promote moderate, pro-Dayton Accord behavior on the part
of the ruling Bosnian Serb elite in the Republika Srpska.
        Second, strengthened independent media are indispensable for
maintaining peace and developing democratic institutions.
Conference participants agreed that the wars of Yugoslav succession
began in the media, most notably in the xenophobic, Serbian
nationalist propaganda of Belgrade Television. Nationalist Serbian,
Croatian, and, to a lesser degree, Muslim politicians in Bosnia-
Herzegovina continue to utilize captive television and radio networks
as well as newspapers to fan the flames of national separation and
often ethnic hatred.
        The official Bosnian Serb media have the worst record in this
regard. Some independent publications have emerged in the last
year, such as "Nezavisne novine" in Banja Luka and "Slobodna Bosna"
in Sarajevo. But major international assistance notwithstanding,
indigenous electronic media remain mouthpieces of national parties
and nationalist politicians. With few exceptions, it is only
international broadcasters who provide balanced reporting on the
airwaves.
        Third, international guarantees of self-determination are a
prerequisite for a peaceful future in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Participants
in the conference agreed on the minimum program for Bosnia's
future: self-determination of peoples, no repetition of forced mass
expulsions and mass murder, and emergence of pluralist and
democratic institutions. But two quite different viewpoints were
expressed about what that might mean in practice.
         One view maintained that, with the cessation of hostilities and
with international encouragement and pressure, Bosnia-Herzegovina
has been reestablishing itself as a country composed of two major
federal or confederal units (the Serbian entity and the Muslim-
Croatian federation). War criminals are being brought to justice.
Some refugees expelled from their native regions are returning, and
some infrastructure is being re-established. Bosnia will never be a
nation-state, but its three peoples (Serbs, Croats, Bosnian Muslims)
will again accept one another as neighbors.
        According to Dennison Rusinow of the University of Pittsburgh,
those peoples realize that "if we do not all hang together, we shall
most assuredly continue to hang each other." The republic of Bosnia-
Herzegovina may have been a constitutional artifact of Titoist
Yugoslavia, but the region and its peoples have a common history. In
due course, self-determination will manifest itself in loyalty to the
new state of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Ambassador Holbrooke argued that
the realistic objective as well as the moral obligation of the U.S. and
Western Europe is to encourage that process. For " to impose
partition would be immoral..., it would legitimize aggression."
        The second view was that Bosnia-Herzegovina can never
become a state commanding even minimal loyalty from the majority
of its inhabitants. The collapse of multi-national Yugoslavia and the
outbreak of genocidal warfare for the second time in a half-century
foreclosed such a future. Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats show
loyalty to, and identify with, Serbia or Croatia, rather than Bosnia.
That national exclusivism is reflected in both the independent and
official media in the three parts of Bosnia.
        Moreover, the Croatian areas of Herzegovina, nominally part of
the Muslim-Croatian Federation, are de facto part of Croatia--more so
than in the case of the Republika Srpska and Serbia. The common
Bosnian-Herzegovina institutions postulated in the Dayton accords
are an external construct. Self-determination can mean only
partition, with international military guarantees of new borders,
especially those of a new state for the Bosnian Muslims (who
suffered the most). Aleksa Djilas, a Belgrade-based sociologist and
historian, commented that the "goal of a unified Bosnia is morally
justified, but there are times when the best is the enemy of the good,
and this is the case in Bosnia right now."
        Although participants in the conference found little common
ground between those two viewpoints, there was consensus that
continued Western and U.S. military presence is a prerequisite for
even minimal stability in the region, while the peoples of Bosnia and
the international community determine which of the two scenarios
will prevail.

The author is RFE/RL counselor.

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