|Change is always powerful. Let your hook be always cast. In the pool where you least expect it, will be a fish. - Ovid|
RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol 1, No. 108, Part I, 2 September 1997
This is Part I of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Newsline. Part I is a compilation of news concerning Russia, Transcaucasia and Central Asia. Part II, covering Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe, is distributed simultaneously as a second document. Back issues of RFE/RL NewsLine are available through RFE/RL's WWW pages: http://www.rferl.org/newsline/search/ Back issues of the OMRI Daily Digest are available through OMRI's WWW pages: http://www.omri.cz/ xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Headlines, Part I * RUSSIA, CHECHNYA FAIL TO REACH PIPELINE AGREEMENT * GERMANY TO RETURN AMBER ROOM FRAGMENTS, IF GENUINE * PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH End Note : A STATE OUTSIDE A BLOC xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx RUSSIA RUSSIA, CHECHNYA FAIL TO REACH PIPELINE AGREEMENT. Russian and Chechen officials, meeting in Moscow on 31 August and 1 September, failed to sign five agreements on repairing the Chechen sector of the Baku-Grozny-Tikhoretsk oil pipeline, Russian agencies reported. According to NTV, the Chechen delegation refused to sign the accords unless they receive $12 million granted in 1995 to the pro-Moscow Chechen government of Doku Zavgaev. But Chechen state oil company President Khozh-Akhmed Yarikhanov said the deadlock was caused by Russia's refusal to pay more than $0.43 per metric ton in tariffs. Russian First Deputy Fuel and Energy Minister Sergei Kirienko told Interfax that if it proves impossible to have the pipeline operational by 1 October, when the first "early" oil from Azerbaijan is scheduled to be exported, Russia will "honor its commitments" to Azerbaijan and transport the oil by barge to Astrakhan and Volgograd for refining. YELTSIN, CHERNOMYRDIN ALSO AT ODDS OVER PIPELINE. At a meeting with Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin in the Kremlin on 2 September, President Boris Yeltsin said he opposes construction of an alternative pipeline that would run from Baku to the Black Sea through the Russian Federation, bypassing Chechnya, Interfax reported. Yeltsin said he promised Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov that "we shall restore the Grozny oil refinery and pipeline through common efforts." Chernomyrdin confirmed that disagreement over tariffs was the primary cause of the breakdown in talks but insisted that the rate Russia offered Grozny is in line "with standard practice." Under an agreement concluded in February1996 between the Azerbaijani state oil company SOCAR and Russia's Transneft, Moscow will receive $15.67 per metric ton in transit tariffs. The Chechens are demanding $4.27, according to Interfax. INTERIOR MINISTER ON LAW ENFORCEMENT IN NORTH CAUCASUS. Anatolii Kulikov told a gathering of law enforcement officials in the southern city of Pyatigorsk (Stavropol Krai) on 2 September that worsening criminal activity in the troubled North Caucasus region threatens all Russia, an RFE/RL correspondent in Pyatigorsk reported. Kulikov told the conference that "local radical nationalist leaders" were seeking to destabilize the region by fanning anti-Russian sentiment in the region. He mentioned the 30-31 August clash in the Dagestani town of Khasavyurt, which left one man dead and seven wounded after Akkin Chechens tried to prevent the arrest of another Chechen. Kulikov said Yeltsin will pay close attention to the results of his meeting with the law enforcement officials, which is also being attended by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ramazan Abdulatipov. GERMANY TO RETURN AMBER ROOM FRAGMENTS, IF GENUINE. German President Roman Herzog has vowed his country will return artifacts from the famous Amber Room if they are found to be genuine. Herzog was speaking following a meeting with President Yeltsin in the Kremlin on 1 September. Some 6,000 tons of amber mosaics were carted off by Nazi soldiers during World War II from the Summer Palace, outside St. Petersburg. Two pieces believed to be part of the collection were discovered in Germany earlier this year. If Germany returns the pieces to Russia, it could strengthen its case for winning back German "trophy art" seized by the Soviet Red Army at the end of the war. Yeltsin has twice vetoed a bill declaring the seized artifacts to be Russian property. YELTSIN ON TIES WITH GERMANY. Following his talks with Herzog, Yeltsin called ties with Germany, Russia's leading trade partner and creditor, a "top priority among top priorities." He noted that the German president's five-day visit to Russia is another step toward improving relations between the two peoples and states. Yeltsin said he intends to invite German Chancellor Helmut Kohl to Russia sometime in the fall for an "informal" visit. Herzog's visit is the first by a German head of state to Russia since the 1990 unification of Germany. OPPOSITION WARNS OF PROTEST. Communist Party leader Gennadii Zyuganov told journalists in Moscow that the opposition has already collected 5 million signatures demanding Yeltsin's resignation, changes in government policies, and the formation of a government of national trust, RFE/RL's Moscow bureau reported on 1 September. A joint statement issued by Zyuganov and the leaders of the Agrarian and Popular Power Duma factions slammed the government-proposed draft budget, which, it said, would "consolidate destructive tendencies in the economy." The statement, published in "Sovetskaya Rossiya" on 2 September, also warns that the opposition will stage massive protests in the fall. But it suggests that those protests could be called off if the authorities organize a "round table" to find solutions to Russia's problems. Such discussions should include representatives of the government, the presidential administration, the legislature, the judiciary, the regions, the major political parties, and the trade unions, the statement said. COMMUNIST POSITION ON DRAFT BUDGET NOT YET DECIDED. Although his joint statement with Agrarian faction leader Nikolai Kharitonov and Popular Power leader Nikolai Ryzhkov sharply criticized the proposed budget for 1998, Zyuganov told journalists on 1 September that the Communist Party has not yet determined its stance on the draft budget, RFE/RL's Moscow bureau reported. The Communist Duma faction is to meet on 2 September to decide its tactics for parliamentary debate on the budget, according to Interfax. Last year, most Communist Duma deputies voted for the 1997 budget in all readings. At the time, Communist leaders said their support for the budget would depend on whether the government met 11 key opposition demands. However, the government ignored those demands. DUMA SPEAKER DEFENDS "IMPERATIVE MANDATE..." In an interview published in "Vechernyaya Moskva" on 30 August, Duma Speaker Gennadii Seleznev defended the proposal to allow Duma factions to strip some deputies of their mandates. He argued that the 225 Duma deputies elected to the parliament on party lists have an obligation to work with their party's Duma faction. If a deputy wants to be independent of a party, Seleznev said, he should run for the parliament in one of the 225 single-member districts. If the imperative mandate were introduced, Communist Party leaders would likely use it to expel Duma deputy Vladimir Semago from the lower house of the parliament. In recent weeks, Semago has been an outspoken critic of Seleznev and the Communist leadership generally. Liberal Democratic Party of Russia leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky, whose Duma faction has suffered several high-profile defections, is also an outspoken defender of the imperative mandate. ...WARNS YELTSIN ON CHECHEN INDEPENDENCE. In the same interview, Seleznev warned that the Duma may move to initiate impeachment proceedings against Yeltsin if Chechnya is recognized as independent from Russia. He argued that such a move would violate the presidential oath to defend the country's territorial integrity and the constitution, which names Chechnya among the 89 regions of Russia. A Duma-sponsored impeachment motion would be unlikely to succeed, since it would require not only the support of two-thirds of Duma deputies but also a Supreme Court ruling acknowledging evidence that the president had committed treason or high crimes. The Constitutional Court would also have to rule that the Duma had adhered to the constitutional procedure for accusing the president of high crimes. Even if all those conditions were met, the Federation Council would need a two-thirds majority vote to impeach the president. FIRST DEPUTY SPEAKER TO HEAD PRO-GOVERNMENT DUMA FACTION? An unnamed source in the pro-government Our Home Is Russia (NDR) movement told ITAR-TASS on 2 September that State Duma First Deputy Speaker Aleksandr Shokhin is likely to be the consensus candidate to replace Sergei Belyaev as leader of the NDR Duma faction. Shokhin indicated the previous day that at a 3 September meeting with NDR Duma deputies, Prime Minister Chernomyrdin will nominate one candidate to replace Belyaev. The deputies will consider only the candidate picked by Chernomyrdin, according to Shokhin. Meanwhile, Belyaev pledged not to exert pressure on colleagues to quit the NDR faction, ITAR-TASS reported on 1 September. Belyaev has said he plans to cooperate with Duma deputies who are members of Yegor Gaidar's party, Russia's Democratic Choice (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 August and 1 September 1997). LUZHKOV DEFENDS CELEBRATION OF MOSCOW'S ANNIVERSARY... Moscow Mayor Yurii Luzhkov has defended the lavish plans for celebrations of the 850th anniversary of the founding of Moscow. The festivities will last for several days and reach their peak on 5-7 September. In an interview published in the 2 September "Nezavisimaya gazeta," Luzhkov was asked whether Moscow might be spending too much money on the celebrations. He replied that "if we missed this event, it would be a loss for all of Russia. By celebrating the birthday of the capital, Russia is saying, we are sure that we are building a better life." Luzhkov added that private sponsors had contributed some 70 billion rubles ($12 million) toward the festivities, which far exceeds the amount to come from the city budget. He acknowledged that the city was spending more than originally planned but blamed the federal government for allocating only about one-fifth of its promised funding for the event. ...CRITICIZES ORT, BEREZOVSKII. Luzhkov has also complained that the 51 percent state-owned Russian Public Television (ORT) network is not planning to run enough live coverage of the Moscow festivities. There have been conflicting reports on how much air time ORT will devote to the events. In an interview with the 30 August "Izvestiya," Luzhkov said claims that the planned broadcasts have been cut back because of financial difficulties are merely a pretext. Instead, Luzhkov charged that Security Council Deputy Secretary Boris Berezovskii, who is considered an extremely powerful figure at ORT, routinely uses his influence over the network's financing to "settle scores [and] discredit inconvenient politicians." He also said Berezovskii has long been at odds with the Moscow authorities. Luzhkov warned that if ORT coverage fails to provide an accurate view of the Moscow celebrations, the network will be "spitting on Russia's soul." CENTRAL BANK CHAIRMAN ON STABILITY OF BANKING SYSTEM. Sergei Dubinin told the 14th Congress of the Association of Asian Banks in Moscow on 1 September that 52 percent of the country's banks are "stable," Interfax and ITAR-TASS reported. He said that only 25 percent of Russia's 1,800 or so banks can be considered unsound and that those institutions account for only 5 percent of the country's banking assets. (On 15 July, Dubinin had said Russia's 20 largest banks control 57.8 percent of the total assets in the banking system.) Some 190 banks have had their licenses revoked so far this year, while only four licenses have been issued to new banks. Dubinin predicted a 5-8 percent rate of inflation for 1998, compared with 13-14 percent estimated for this year and 22 percent recorded for 1996. CHERNOMYRDIN ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT. At the same banking conference, Prime Minister Chernomyrdin said Russia hopes to attract $10-15 billion in foreign investment by 2000, Interfax reported. Chernomyrdin said that to achieve that goal, the main tasks are reducing inflation to annual levels of 5-8 percent, stabilizing the value of the ruble, lowering the cost of servicing the country's debt, and making credit more accessible. COMMUNISTS FARE BADLY IN SARATOV LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS. The Communist Party and other left opposition groups failed to win any seats in the 31 August legislative elections in Saratov Oblast, ITAR-TASS reported on 1 September. All the winning candidates were supported by the Bloc of Popular Trust, which largely consists of members of the oblast government and prominent local businessmen. Directors of large local enterprises won 12 of the 33 seats in the legislature. The losers included the head of the regional Communist Party committee, who had been deputy chairman of the legislature during its last term. Turnout was 42 percent. Saratov Governor Dmitrii Ayatskov said he was pleased with the results. President Boris Yeltsin recently visited the oblast and praised its leaders (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 August 1997). In the July 1996 presidential election, Communist Party leader Zyuganov gained 50 percent of the vote in Saratov and Yeltsin 44 percent. HEPATITIS OUTBREAK IN LENINGRAD OBLAST. At least 55 people have been hospitalized following a hepatitis outbreak in Leningrad Oblast, near St. Petersburg, AFP and ITAR-TASS reported on 1 September. Lidiya Chudina, deputy head of the regional epidemiological center, told the Western news agency that cases have been detected in Lesogorsk and Svetogorsk, which are close to the border with Finland. Chudina said contaminated springs and wells were to blame for the outbreak. Schools in the affected areas have been closed and residents advised to boil water before drinking. TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH. Arkadii Ghukasyan, the 40-year-old foreign minister of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, was elected president on 1 September with some 85 percent of the vote, defeating two rival candidates. Voter turnout was estimated at 84.7 percent of the region's 89,000 eligible voters, according to RFE/RL's Stepanakert correspondent. Some 40 international monitors, including a group of Russian State Duma deputies, monitored the poll. No procedural violations were reported, but a Karabakh army officer was shot dead in a clash with Azerbaijani forces near the front-line town of Agdam, east of Karabakh. Ghukasyan, a philologist and former journalist, was appointed foreign minister in July 1993. His candidacy was endorsed by the Armenian leadership. Robert Kocharyan, former Karabakh president and now Armenian prime minister, told Noyan Tapan on 1 September that he would vote for Ghukasyan. PEACE TALKS TO RESUME SOON? Armenian First Deputy Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian told Armenian State Television on 1 September that talks on resolving the Karabakh conflict will resume only after the formation of a new government in the Nagorno- Karabakh Republic, Interfax reported. Ghukasyan advocates direct talks with the Azerbaijani leadership on a settlement of that includes security guarantees for Nagorno-Karabakh but rules out autonomous status for the enclave within Azerbaijan, saying he is committed to the enclave's independence. Noyan Tapan on 1 September quoted Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrossyan as saying he raised the Karabakh issue at all his meetings with Russian officials in Moscow on 29-30 August. Armenpress quoted Russian Prime Minister Chernomyrdin as affirming that the 29 August Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance, signed by Ter-Petrossyan and Russian President Yeltsin, will contribute to the peaceful solution of the conflict. AZERBAIJAN "CONCERNED" ABOUT RUSSIAN-ARMENIAN TREATY. During his 1 September meeting with Russian ambassador to Baku Aleksandr Blokhin, Foreign Minister Hasan Hasanov expressed his "concern" and "bewilderment" at the provisions of the Russian- Armenian treaty, Interfax reported. The signatories pledge to assist each other in the case of armed aggression by a third state. RUSSIA MAY GRANT NEW LOAN TO YEREVAN. Russia may extend a further 249 billion ruble ($42.7 million) loan to Armenia by the end of 1997, provided Yerevan fulfills its commitments on repaying earlier credits, Interfax reported on 1 September. The loan will finance additional safety measures at the Medzamor nuclear power station. As collateral, Armenia will give Russia a 10 percent share in the Nairit chemical plant and a 7 percent stake in Medzamor. In 1994, Armenia pledged a 15 percent share in Medzamor, Nairit, the Yerevan cognac distillery, and the Armelektromash electrical engineering plant as collateral for a 110 billion ruble credit. KIDNAPPED TAJIK MUFTI RELEASED. Tajik security forces on 2 September freed Amonullo Negmatzoda, the spiritual leader of the country's Muslims, as well as his younger brother and two other people, ITAR-TASS and AFP reported. The two men were taken hostage on 27 August by field commander Rezvon Sadirov, who is demanding the release of his brother Bakhrom, currently in custody for his role in the kidnapping of eight UN and three Red Cross representatives in February. Sadirov is still holding hostage two of Negmatzoda's sons, whom he seized on 31 July. Also on 2 September, Said Abdullo Nuri, the leader of the United Tajik Opposition, agreed during a telephone conversation with President Imomali Rakhmonov to be in Dushanbe by 9 September for celebrations marking the anniversary of Tajikistan's independence, ITAR-TASS reported. TURKMEN PRESIDENT UNDERGOES CARDIAC SURGERY. Saparmurad Niyazov underwent a five-hour operation at a clinic near Munich, Germany, on 1 September to repair vessels supplying blood to the heart, Western agencies reported. A presidential spokesman said the operation had gone according to plan and that surgeons considered the 57-year-old president's condition satisfactory. CORRECTION: "RFE/RL Newsline" on 29 August incorrectly reported that the Russian and Armenian presidents had signed an agreement on the transit of oil via Armenia. For information on the agreements signed, see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 September 1997. END NOTE A STATE OUTSIDE A BLOC by Paul Goble Some fundamental shifts in the balance of power in Eastern Europe have made it possible for Ukraine to become a "state outside a bloc," as Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma recently put it. Speaking in Kyiv on 28 August following a meeting with visiting Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeev, Kuchma announced two major changes in the direction of Ukraine's security policy. He said that "Ukraine does not intend to join NATO structures," even though he would not rule out future cooperation with the Western alliance. At the same time, he made clear that Kyiv no longer intends to be bound by the provisions of the collective security treaty signed in 1992 by seven members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Instead, he said, Ukraine will seek to improve relations with individual countries, including Russia, as a means of promoting its security and well-being. Kuchma's announcement that his country will not seek NATO membership undercuts earlier statements by Ukrainian officials that Kyiv's strategic objective is to join the Western alliance at some point in the future. But, just like his declaration about the CIS, his remarks about NATO reflect three broader changes across the region. First, Ukraine's shift represents a triumph, rather than a defeat, for NATO's policy of expansion. It was no coincidence that Kuchma's remarks came only one day after U.S. troops landed in Crimea as part of a NATO-sponsored Partnership for Peace joint exercise. Much criticized by Moscow, those maneuvers have reaffirmed Western support for Ukraine but have also prompted the Russian government to shift its position both rhetorically and in practice. Russian criticism of the maneuvers and of Ukraine's participation have softened since the exercises began, and Russian relations with Ukraine have continued to improve, with the two sides announcing that Kuchma will make an official visit to Moscow early next year. That shift, in turn. has allowed the Ukrainians to stake out a position -- closer ties with NATO but no ultimate membership -- that allows them to seek to boost ties with Moscow without giving up continuing support from the West. Second, Ukraine's shift reflects the collapse of the CIS as an organization relevant to the security needs of Eastern Europe. On the same day that Russian foreign policy expert Sergei Karaganov declared the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is "dead" because of its failures in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kuchma took a step toward demonstrating that the CIS is close to its grave. He did so not by withdrawing from the organization as a whole but rather by underscoring that Ukraine will give preference to bilateral ties with Russia rather than multilateral arrangements with other former Soviet republics. Moscow will hardly object to improved relations with Kyiv -- indeed, Sergeev welcomed them -- but Kyiv is the winner in this round because its stance undermines Russian pretensions to domination over the entire territory of a country that no longer exists. Third, Ukraine's shift reflects a normalization of relations between Kyiv and Moscow. It also highlights a growing willingness on the part of the Russians to view Ukraine as an independent country and on the part of Ukrainians to see Russia as something other than an enemy. By staking out a position outside of any bloc, Ukraine is reaffirming its position as an important country within Eastern Europe, one that will act on its own interests rather than at the behest of any other country. And as ever more Russian officials accept Ukraine's new status -- something NATO's Partnership for Peace program has helped promote -- Ukrainians will find it easier to accept Russia as a potential partner rather than the inevitable enemy. Obviously, a single speech, even one as important as Kuchma's on 28 August, does not guarantee that the geopolitics of the region will develop without serious problems. But as an indication of fundamental shifts, Kuchma's remarks are an important milepost on the road to a better future for Ukrainians, for Russians, and for the region in which they live. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Copyright (c) 1997 RFE/RL, Inc. 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