Самое трудное - познать самого себя, самое легкое - давать советы другим. - Фалес
RFE/RL Daily Report

No. 220, 21 November 1994


GRACHEV DEFENDS MILITARY . . . Russian Defense Minister Pavel
Grachev told the State Duma on 18 November that the country's
armed forces were ready and able to counter any likely aggressor.
As reported by Interfax, he rejected the idea that the armed
forces were on the verge of collapse by pointing to their recent
achievements--the massive redeployments from Eastern Europe and
the Baltic; the peacekeeping missions involving more than 20,000
servicemen; the new mobile forces that could be quickly deployed
to any part of the globe; and the new air and space defense
system. -- Doug Clarke, RFE/RL, Inc.

. . . BUT WARNS OF TROUBLE AHEAD. At the same time, Grachev warned
that the armed forces and the national security of the state were
facing "a real and palpable threat." Unless there was more respect
for the military, increased and more reliable funding, better
staffing, and better equipment soon, he said, there would be "an
irreversible loss of combat ability, a real disintegration" of the
armed forces. Grachev said that the proposed 45 billion ruble
military budget for 1995 was only one-third of the armed forces'
minimum requirement. The Defense Ministry, he reported, was more
than 8 trillion rubles in debt. Without better financing, 90
percent of the military's equipment would be obsolete by the year
2000. Grachev also spoke of the impact of the loss of spiritual
and moral values in the country. The majority of recruits were
less educated and in poorer health than in the past and had "not
the slightest devotion to ideas of patriotism or military duty."
They were also more inclined to cruelty and violence, resulting in
a 25 percent increase in serious crimes within the military. --
Doug Clarke, RFE/RL, Inc.

GRACHEV WINS THE DAY IN DUMA. Grachev easily survived the Duma
hearing after the chairman of the military committee, Sergei
Yushenkov, failed to muster a majority on the committee to turn
the hearing into an assessment of Grachev's fitness for his
office, let alone to recommend his dismissal outright. Grachev,
for his part, reiterated his determination to stay in office,
linked his fate to that of the military, and attacked media
treatment of the issue of military corruption as a "political
provocation" aimed at undermining the armed forces and the
authority of the Russian state. He even compared today's criticism
of the armed forces to past persecution of Jews: "Once we had the
doctors' affair, now it's the generals' affair. Beat the generals,
save Russia." Although dependent on President Boris Yeltsin's
continued support (of which he has declared himself confident),
Grachev portrayed the president's official goal of reducing
military manpower to 1.5 million and creating a professional army
as fiscally unrealistic and militarily incompatible with Russia's
security needs. -- Vladimir Socor, RFE/RL, Inc.

forces of the opposition Provisional Council backed by tanks,
armored vehicles, and helicopters attacked and defeated Chechen
government troops in the village of Bratskoe on the border between
Chechnya and Russia, Russian agencies reported. Ten government
troops were killed, according to Interfax. In an interview with
Interfax on 19 November, President Dzhokhar Dudaev accused Russia
of masterminding the attack, which he termed "the beginning of the
second Russian-Caucasian war," and called on the world community
to halt the killing of innocent civilians in Chechnya. -- Liz
Fuller, RFE/RL, Inc.

DUMA VOTES FOR LAW ON FSK. The State Duma has passed at the first
reading a bill on the federal counterintelligence organs submitted
by the presidential administration and the director of the Federal
Counterintelligence Service (FSK), Sergei Stepashin, agencies
reported on 18 November. The bill substantially increases the role
of the FSK, including the use of eavesdropping and secret
informers; it also restores the investigative branch of the state
security organs, which was abolished after the disbanding of the
Ministry of Security in December 1993. Earlier, the Duma's
democratic factions stated they would vote against the bill, but
their position changed after Vladimir Zhirinovsky called the FSK
"an affiliation of the CIA" and Stepashin "an agent" of the
Israeli foreign intelligence service Mossad. Stepashin said he
would sue Zhirinovsky. The leader of the democratic faction
Yabloko, Grigorii Yavlinsky, and the speaker of the Duma, Ivan
Rybkin, apologized to the FSK for Zhirinovsky's outburst and
proposed that Zhirinovsky be banned from speaking in the
parliament for three sessions. The proposal was rejected, and the
FSK bill was adopted without major amendments. -- Victor Yasmann,
RFE/RL, Inc.

The head of the Civic Union, Arkadii Volsky, and the leader of the
Party of the Majority, Vyacheslav Grechnev, announced the creation
of a "centrist" bloc, ITAR-TASS reported on 18 November. According
to Volsky, the bloc also includes a military officers' group
"Serve the Fatherland," headed by former Chief of the Soviet Army
General Staff Mikhail Moiseev; a KGB veterans club; the
antiterrorist association "Alfa"; and the Independent Union of
Miners. The most significant component of this strange
constellation is the Majority Party, which recently organized a
drive to collect signatures for the restoration of the monarchy in
Russia, the abolition of the Presidency, and the extension of
Yeltsin's term in office as the regent of the young Tsar Georgii
Romanov. The party claims that it has already collected the 1
million signatures required for a referendum. However, Volsky said
that, under their pre-election agreement, the Majority Party was
prepared to delay the vote until 1998. -- Victor Yasmann, RFE/RL,

deputy chairman of the Federation Council, Petr Romanov, has
confirmed that he will run for the Presidency, Nezavisimaya gazeta
reported on 18 November. Romanov, who is considered to be the new
leader of the "irreconcilable opposition," said he would be
nominated officially after the adoption of the new election law in
December. Earlier, other opposition leaders, including former
Russian Vice President Aleksandr Rutskoi and Communist Party of
the Russian Federation head Gennadii Zyuganov, denied that Romanov
had been elected leader of the joint antidemocratic opposition.
Subsequently, however, Zyuganov put Romanov first on the list of
those who would head the "government of the national confidence."
Romanov, in turn, said that he favored Yurii Skokov for prime
minister and that he considered Zhirinovsky, not Yeltsin, his main
rival for the Presidency. -- Victor Yasmann, RFE/RL, Inc.

November the leadership of the Kaliningrad Oblast Soviet declared:
"We regard the Baltic Assembly resolution as flagrant interference
in the internal affairs of the Russian Federation, an insult to
the population of Kaliningrad Oblast, and an inadmissible
violation of civilized norms of international relations." The
following day, the State Duma passed almost unanimously a
statement condemning the ''So-Called Resolution of the Baltic
Assembly on Kaliningrad Oblast" and saying that "demilitarization
of Kaliningrad Oblast is Russia's internal affair and will proceed
in a way consistent with Russia's national interests and keeping
in mind developments in Europe. Being told what to do by the
Baltic Assembly's 'round tables' borders on the obscene." Some
deputies subsequently complained that the Duma had passed the
document too hastily and that some of its formulations could be
rephrased in legally sounder terms. That afternoon the Duma voted
to drop the words "so-called" from the document's title and to
pass it "as a whole," Baltic and Russian agencies reported; that
would seem to suggest that some revisions of the text are
possible. -- Dzintra Bungs, RFE/RL, Inc.


heated three-day debate, on 19 November the Armenian parliament
approved a government economic reform program drafted in
conjunction with the IMF, ITAR-TASS reported. President Levon
Ter-Petrossyan characterized the measures as the logical
continuation of the economic policies of the past three years
aimed at further price liberalization, reform of the tax system,
reducing the budget deficit, expediting privatization, and phasing
out subsidies; he claimed that the program would effect a
stabilization of the economy within three months. The Armenian
opposition staged a demonstration in Erevan on 18 November to
protest the planned abolition of bread price subsidies contained
in the program. -- Liz Fuller, RFE/RL, Inc.

of the Uzbek-language weekly Haq suzi and a prominent member of
Tajikistan's Uzbek community, was shot at his apartment building
in Dushanbe on 17 November and died shortly afterward, agencies
reported on 18 November. Shortly after the shooting, associates of
Hakimov contacted Radio Liberty's Uzbek Service, whose
correspondent Hakimov had been. The chairman of the Society of
Uzbeks in Tajikistan, Rahim Hashimov, blamed the killing, the
latest in a series of attacks on journalists in 1994, on
unspecified "terrorist forces"; colleagues of Hakimov doubted that
the killing was motivated by anything published in the newspaper,
which specializes in cultural, historical, and demographic
articles. -- Bess Brown, RFE/RL, Inc.


November, the inaugural session of the Interstate Economic
Committee (IEC) discussed the creation of a CIS customs union; a
common market for goods, services, capital, and labor; an
interstate fund to aid refugees; and a joint force to intervene in
natural disasters or large-scale industrial or technical accidents
in member states. (Russia's State Committee for Emergency
Situations, which would probably bear the brunt of any such
interventions, is a militarized structure.) A program to celebrate
the 50th anniversary of the USSR's victory in World War II was
also submitted. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksei Bolshakov
(appointed on 9 November and responsible for CIS affairs) was
elected chairman of the IEC's Presidium, which is to consist of
deputy prime ministers delegated by the member states and to
convene every two to three months. The session resolved to
establish a standing body, the Collegium, made up of
plenipotentiary delegates of the member states and headquartered
in Moscow, which would be endowed with executive powers. It
appears that, in practice, the Collegium will function as the
executive organ of the CIS Economic Union, the role given to the
IEC at the CIS summit on 21 October. CIS Executive Secretary Ivan
Korotchenya insisted that the IEC's role would be of an
"operational" and "executive" nature, rather than a planning or
conceptual one. He deplored the "wait-and-see attitude" of the 9
member states that failed to appoint plenipotentiaries to the
Collegium. Only Russia and Uzbekistan did so. Turkmenistan did not
attend the session, Russian media reported. -- Vladimir Socor,
RFE/RL, Inc.

President" Aleksandr Karaman's recent statement that the
"unrecognized states" of Transdniester, Gagauzia, Crimea,
Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Karabakh "are headed toward
establishing a CIS-two," Rossiya (no. 44, 16-22 November) observes
that would-be states of this type constitute a "destabilizing
factor in the CIS" hampering the reintegration of the recognized
states, jeopardizing their bilateral relations with Russia, and
stimulating centrifugal forces within the Russian Federation
itself. With meager economic resources but a "substantial military
potential," these would-be states resort to terrorism, organized
economic crime, and arms trafficking to prolong their existence.
Their problems spill over into neighboring countries, resulting in
chronic conflicts. By implicating Russia as their "ally and
donor," the would-be states have placed themselves "at the
epicenter of most hot spots in the CIS," risking the
"internationalization of CIS internal problems" to Russia's
detriment. The commentary recommends that Russia refrain from
officially recognizing the would-be states while aiding them
economically via nonstate channels "in light of mutual interests."
-- Vladimir Socor, RFE/RL, Inc.

                    CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

on 21 November reports that NATO warplanes the previous day were
prepared to bomb the Udbina airfield, controlled by rebel Serbs in
Croatia's Krajina region, but that the mission has been postponed
owing to poor weather. International media on 21 November report
that NATO planes remain ready to retaliate against rebel Serbian
targets. The UN Security Council--spurred by Croatian Serb air
attacks from Udbina against targets in the UN-declared safe area
of Bihac, in northwestern Bosnia--on 19 November unanimously
adopted a resolution providing for NATO air strikes against rebel
Serbian targets in Croatia. In the first Croatian Serb air attack,
on 18 November, two planes dropped a cluster bomb and napalm. The
second attack, on 19 November, involved two planes. At least nine
people were reported dead, and one of the planes was shot down by
Bosnian government forces, killing the pilot. International media
on 19 November reported that Croatian President Franjo Tudjman
supported NATO action in Croatian airspace and against the rebel
Croatian Serbs. Borba on 21 November quotes rebel Krajina Serb
leader Milan Martic as saying he regards NATO action against
Krajina as renewed Croatian aggression. Finally, AFP on 20
November reported that Serbia's media are tacitly supporting
Serbian aggression in Bosnia's Bihac enclave, thereby likely
signaling Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic's renewed support
for the Bosnian Serbs and their allies. -- Stan Markotich, RFE/RL,

FIGHTING IN BOSNIA CONTINUES. International media on 21 November
continue to report that fighting in several areas of Bosnia,
particularly the northwestern Bihac pocket, remains intense.
According to rump Yugoslav media on 20 November, Bosnian Serb
forces have recaptured almost all the territory recently reclaimed
by Bosnian government forces in the Bihac enclave. The Croatian
agency Hina on 20 November reported that the town of Velika
Kladusa was encircled by troops loyal to rebel Muslim leader
Fikret Abdic and that street fighting had raged in the town
center. Meanwhile, CNN on 21 November reports that Bosnian
government forces in Central Bosnia and in areas around Sarajevo
continue to consolidate their military gains. -- Stan Markotich,
RFE/RL, Inc.

Radio report that the assembly of the rebel Serbs in Croatia's
Krajina region has rejected a proposed agreement on economic links
with Croatia. According to Serbian media reports, the assembly was
most concerned about yielding total control to Zagreb over
Krajina's water and energy supplies. The assembly, however, called
on the rebel Krajina government to continue negotiations on
economic matters with Zagreb. -- Stan Markotich, RFE/RL, Inc.

Polish Primate Cardinal Jozef Glemp announced on 20 November in a
pastoral letter that the Church intends to set up a mass lay
organization. According to a report in Gazeta Wyborcza on 21
November, the new organization--to be called Catholic Action--will
establish chapters in both individual parishes and workplaces.
Glemp said the first chapters will be set up this year and that
the organization will extend across the entire country by the end
of the century. The organization is a successor to the Catholic
social and political movement of the same name active in Poland
during the 1930s, when it had a membership of about 750,000 and
exerted some influence on the country's political and social life.
Its reemergence was apparently encouraged by Pope John Paul II,
who was reported to have raised the issue during his meeting with
Polish bishops in January 1993. -- Jan de Weydenthal, RFE/RL, Inc.

LOCAL ELECTIONS IN CZECH REPUBLIC . . . Preliminary returns from
the Czech local elections, held on 18-19 November, showed strong
support for independent candidates, CTK reports. With most results
available, except those from Prague and Brno, independents won
49.8 percent of the vote. The strongest showing of any party was
12.5 percent for the Christian Democratic Union--Czechoslovak
People's Party, compared with 10.9 percent for Premier Vaclav
Klaus's Civic Democratic Party, 9.2 percent for the Communist
Party of Bohemia and Moravia, and 2.4 percent for the Czech Social
Democratic Party. Approximately 64 percent of eligible voters
participated. According to the Czech daily Mlada fronta dnes on 21
November, the results fulfilled the preelection expectations of
most parties in the governing coalition; only Christian Democratic
Party Chairman Ivan Filip was disappointed with his party's
showing. The final results are to be released on 21 November. --
Sharon Fisher, RFE/RL, Inc.

. . . AND IN SLOVAKIA. Preliminary returns show that
Premier-designate Vladimir Meciar's Movement for a Democratic
Slovakia lost ground in Slovakia's local elections, also held on
18-19 November, after winning nearly 35 percent of the vote in
this fall's parliamentary elections. As in the Czech Republic,
citizens voted for individual candidates rather than political
parties: independents, won 28.84 percent of the 2,853 mayoral
posts, followed by the Party of the Democratic Left with 17.98
percent, the MDS with 15.98 percent, and the Christian Democratic
Movement with 15.24 percent. The MDS won 23.06 percent of the
35,524 local government seats, followed by the CDM with 20.5
percent, the PDL with 15.87 percent, and independents with 7.81
percent, TASR reports. Peter Kresanek, the joint candidate of the
five centrist and rightist parties, was reelected mayor of
Bratislava, beating the Slovak National Party's Jozef Prokes.
Mayoral candidates of centrist and rightist parties won seven of
Bratislava's 17 districts, compared with only two for the MDS and
one for the SNP. SNP Chairman Jan Slota was reelected mayor of
Zilina. Preliminary results showed that 54.26 percent of the more
than 3.8 million eligible voters participated, with turnout
considerably lower in cities than in villages. The final results
will not be announced until 22 November. -- Sharon Fisher, RFE/RL,

November handed in his resignation to Prime Minister Gyula Horn,
MTI reports. Janosi is a member of the ruling Hungarian Socialist
Party, while the ministry is headed by Gabor Fodor, who was a
candidate of the HSP's coalition partner, the Alliance of Free
Democrats. Janosi cited two reasons for his resignation:
insufficient state funding for culture and education and tensions
within the ministry. He said the HSP had not given him sufficient
support during debates with the coalition partner. Horn is
scheduled to meet with both Fodor and Janosi on 21 November. --
Judith Pataki, RFE/RL, Inc.

Election Committee on 17 November announced that an insufficient
number of valid signatures calling for a referendum on the 1996
Budapest Expo had been collected. Although the committee did not
check the validity of every signature, it estimated--based on a
sample--that only about 85,000 of the 120,000 signatures collected
were valid. But at the same time, it noted that incorrect
collection procedures rather than falsifications were responsible.
Earlier this month, the parliament rejected holding the Budapest
fair for financial reasons. The opposition parties charged that
the coalition concealed it political intentions for canceling the
fair by citing economic reasons. -- Judith Pataki, RFE/RL, Inc.

Romanian and Hungarian Foreign Ministries concluded in Bucharest
on 17 November another round of negotiations on the bilateral
treaty. According to an RFE/RL correspondent and Radio Bucharest,
the Romanian Foreign Ministry called the talks "constructive" and
said new proposals were made on those issues that have so far
prevented an agreement from being reached: Hungary's recognition
of the existing border and Romania's refusal to have ethnic
minority rights enshrined in the treaty. The talks will resume
after the two sides have examined the new proposals. The officials
agreed to open new border crossings and improve cooperation
between their respective Interior Ministries. -- Michael Shafir,
RFE/RL, Inc.

military delegation, began a three-day visit to Romania on 18
November. Following discussions with his Romanian counterpart,
Gheorghe Tinca, the two ministers agreed to hold joint military
exercises on each other's territory in 1995, pending approval by
their respective parliaments, an RFE/RL correspondent and Radio
Bucharest report. Tinca said Bucharest will allow landlocked
Hungary to use the Black Sea training base at Capul Midia. It was
also agreed that the two countries' Danube river fleets should
"work together closely," leading eventually to collaboration with
NATO and WEU vessels supervising the embargo against rump
Yugoslavia. Tinca and Keleti also agreed to cooperate in seeking
membership in NATO. "It is in the interest of all Central European
countries to achieve NATO membership and to achieve it together,"
Tinca said, adding that Romania's path to NATO "runs through
Budapest and Hungary's through Bucharest." Also on 18 November,
Keleti held talks with Prime Minister Nicolae Vacaroiu and Foreign
Minister Teodor Melescanu. The following day, the Hungarian
defense minister was received by President Ion Iliescu. On 20
November, the Hungarian delegation visited military units in
Transylvania and met with leaders of the Hungarian Democratic
Federation of Romania in Harghita and Mures counties. -- Michael
Shafir, RFE/RL, Inc.

speaking in Suceava, near Romania's borders with Ukraine and
Moldova, reaffirmed on Romanian Radio on 18 November his view that
Moldovans in the Republic of Moldova are Romanians and that
Moldova is "a second Romanian state." He regretted that "certain
people dislike my use of that phrase but that's what it is." "In
affirming this . . . it does not mean that Romania claims the
return today of territories that were incorporated into other
states or that Moldova should unite with Romania tomorrow," he
commented. By twice distinguishing between Moldova and other
"Romanian" territories beyond the border, Iliescu indicated that
he was also referring to the areas incorporated into Ukraine. At
the same time, he bowed to "the postwar borders enshrined in
international documents, a reality which we must take into
account." Admitting to a "decline in political, economic, and
other relations," he said "an improvement does not depend on us."
Iliescu the previous day told Romanian Radio that establishing a
free trade area on the border between Romania and the Republic of
Moldova "depends on putting an end to inertia in the Republic of
Moldova." Recent statements of this kind by Iliescu and other
Romanian officials have provoked sharp retorts from Moldova. --
Vladimir Socor, RFE/RL, Inc.

reported on 19 November that Zef Brozi, Albania's highest justice,
has called for the resignation of the country's public order
minister. According to the justice, the top-level resignation is
warranted because police officials have allegedly violated human
rights. Brozi, speaking at a press conference, observed that
police officers have illegally detained citizens, committed
violent acts, and breached the law in numerous other ways. He also
said that "if we don't take the malice out of the public order
ministry, citizens' rights will be endangered at any moment." --
Stan Markotich, RFE/RL, Inc.

UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT IN US. Leonid Kuchma, arriving in New York on
19 November for an official visit to the US, said the main goal of
his trip was to open a new era in US-Ukrainian relations,
international agencies reported. Kuchma is scheduled to visit the
New York Stock Exchange and address the United Nations on 21
November. He is also expected to meet in New York with business
leaders, Ukrainian-American organizations, and Henry Kissinger.
The next day, he is scheduled to meet with US President Bill
Clinton in Washington. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott
said Clinton would give Ukraine assurances of US support for
Ukrainian sovereignty, but "this does not mean the US is coming to
the defense of Ukraine if attacked." -- Ustina Markus, RFE/RL,

UKRAINIAN BY-ELECTIONS. Another round of by-elections was held on
20 November to fill 55 of the remaining 56 seats in Ukraine's
450-member parliament, international agencies reported. Voting on
the final seat will be held on 4 December. According to
preliminary reports, turnout was low and it is likely that many of
the districts will not have the minimum 50 percent voter
participation required to validate the election. Of the unfilled
parliamentary seats, eighteen are in Kiev, which is noted for its
voter apathy. -- Ustina Markus, RFE/RL, Inc.

BELARUSIAN-RUSSIAN TALKS. Belarusian Radio on 18 November reported
that a working group headed by Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail
Myasnikovich returned to Minsk after talks with Russian officials
on trade and economic relations. Belarusian President Alyaksandr
Lukashenka said talks between Russia and Belarus on a closer
economic union are continuing. He said he was puzzled by some
aspects of the talks, singling out Russia's demand for ownership
of the gas distributor Beltranshas's facilities. Meanwhile,
Belarusian Radio on 20 October reported that the republic's
Liberal Democrats and the Slavic Assembly formed a political bloc,
which was registered at the Justice Ministry. The two Russophone
groups will cooperate in the upcoming parliamentary elections. --
Ustina Markus, RFE/RL, Inc.

Ministry issued a statement on 18 November saying that Russian
military transit to the Kaliningrad region through Lithuania will
have to comply with Lithuanian regulations as of 1 January 1995,
BNS reports. A meeting of Lithuanian and Russian experts the
previous day ended after only several minutes when Lithuania
refused to discuss a bilateral military transit agreement. Russia
is demanding that such a document be signed. Viktor Isakov,
Russia's chief negotiator with Lithuania, said a special agreement
was needed since the military cargoes would be transported
regularly from one part of Russia to another and not abroad. The
procedure for documenting the transit stipulated by the Lithuanian
regulations was too complicated, he added. The Lithuanian Foreign
Ministry statement suggests the government may have changed its
position and is now agreeing to the opposition's view that
Lithuania should establish transit rules for all countries and not
sign a special agreement with Russia. -- Saulius Girnius, RFE/RL,

ESTONIAN FERRY PROBLEMS CONTINUE. The ferry "Mare Balticum"--the
replacement for the "Estonia," which sank off the Finnish coast on
28 September, with the loss of more than 900 lives--struck a
breakwater as it was leaving Tallinn on 19 November, Western
agencies report. There were no injuries among the 181 passengers
and 100 crew aboard, but the passenger service will be suspended
for several days until the ship is repaired. The 57-ton bow door
of the "Estonia" was raised on 18 November by Swedish and Finnish
salvagers and taken to the Finnish port of Hangoe for further
examinations. It may take more than a year, however, before a
final report on the disaster is issued. -- Saulius Girnius,
RFE/RL, Inc.

government's press secretary, told Interfax on 20 November that
the government is concerned about the sale of KGB documents on the
black market. Newspapers in Estonia also advertise the sale of
such documents, some of which can be bought in neighboring
countries, particularly Finland. Saarna said Estonia's Archives
Department has lost "thousands of files on the activity of the KGB
and other intelligence agencies." It is unclear whether these
documents are from the archives taken over by Estonia in 1991. --
Dzintra Bungs, RFE/RL, Inc.

[As of 1200 CET] (Compiled by Jan Cleave and Penny Morvant)
The RFE/RL DAILY REPORT, produced by the RFE/RL Research
Institute (a division of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Inc.)
with the assistance of the RFE/RL News and Current Affairs
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