В наши расчеты не входило преимущество долгой жизни. - М. Робеспьер
RFE/RL Daily Report

No. 92, 16 May 1994


KOZYREV ON BOSNIA MEETING. Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev
hailed the signing of the communique in Geneva on 13 May as an
event that "makes unhappy those who would like to continue war" in
Bosnia. Emphasizing Russia's role in the negotiations, Kozyrev
claimed that the communique strongly resembled President Boris
Yeltsin's recent message to the leaders of the US, France,
Britain, and Germany. Meanwhile, Russia's State Duma voted on 13
May to call on the Foreign Ministry to press for the lifting of
sanctions against rump Yugoslavia. The Duma's resolution passed
with a vote of 270 for, 1 against, and 11 abstentions, Interfax
and ITAR-TASS reported.  Suzanne Crow, RFE/RL, Inc.

correspondent reported on 12 May that Russian Defense Ministry
spokesmen have expressed the hope that the State Duma will
reconsider a preliminary vote on the state budget, taken on 11
May, that failed to provide an increase in defense spending that
had been urged by the military leadership. According to the same
report, an unnamed spokesman from the President's office said that
Boris Yeltsin continues to support increased military spending,
but the official agreed that the increase could only come if
spending in other areas is reduced. Meanwhile, Sergei Glazyev, a
member of the Democratic Party of Russia and chairman of the
Duma's Economic Policy Committee, said that spending overall
should have been increased by 30%; he suggested that a significant
portion of that money should go to supporting high-tech
enterprises in the defense sector, Interfax reported on 13 May. On
14 May Interfax quoted Egor Gaidar as saying that the Russia's
Choice faction would take a "cautious stand" on the issue of
defense expenditures but might be willing to support some increase
in military spending.  Stephen Foye, RFE/RL, Inc.

RUTSKOI SHOOTS FROM THE HIP. In a fusillade of random shots,
former Vice-President Aleksandr Rutskoi speaks out with verve, if
not precision, in an interview with Newsweek of 23 May. On the
other former Soviet republics: "Those countries that call
themselves sovereign and independent never had their own
statehood, never in their history. They were all parts of Russia,
a great power." On whether these states should unite again and
form a great Russia: "I have absolutely no doubt that that's
what's going to happen." On responsibility for the bloodshed in
October 1993: "Clinton sanctioned the actions of the president
[Yeltsin], who broke the Constitution and the law. That is what
caused the bloodshed." Keith Bush, RFE/RL, Inc.

NO LDPR CABINET MEMBER. Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin told
Interfax on 13 May that he had held a "brief" meeting on the
previous day with Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the leader of the Liberal
Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), and that he had declined
Zhirinovsky's request that LDPR members be admitted to the
cabinet.  Keith Bush, RFE/RL, Inc.

women directors of industrial enterprises on 13 May, Chernomyrdin
stated that the government's main task was to halt and reverse the
decline in industrial production, Interfax reported. He advocated
"a civilized Russian market, rather than fetching everything from
abroad." Chernomyrdin promised emergency measures to rescue light
industry, including loans and soft credits at an annual interest
rate of 25 percent [compared with a current base rate of around
205 percent]. He ruled out an immediate raising of fuel prices to
world levels as this would bankrupt more than 60 percent of the
nation's enterprises, and he also spoke out against a
reconciliation of enterprises' mutual debts on a national scale.
Keith Bush, RFE/RL, Inc.

. . . AND HIS WORDS FOR THE WEST. In an article appearing in The
Financial Times of 16 May, Chernomyrdin emphasized the need for
fiscal and monetary rectitude. He pledged that his government
would adhere to tight monetary and credit policies despite a first
quarter slump of 25 percent in industrial output. Chernomyrdin
divided Russian industrial plants into three groups. The first
were adapting successfully to new market conditions; the
second--the largest number--had not yet adapted but were capable
of doing so, yet need government help [i.e., continued subsidies];
and the third group contained those helpless cases that should be
allowed to go bankrupt. However, the latter group would be closed
down only when an effective social safety net was in place.  Keith
Bush, RFE/RL, Inc.

Sergei Dubinin told Interfax on 13 May that the government now
hopes that the decline in industrial output in 1994 will stabilize
and will be limited to 12-15 percent by the end of the year. The
original official projection for the decline in industrial output
in 1994 was 8 percent and the initial draft budget was predicated
on that figure. However, any such projection was rendered
untenable after output dropped by 25 percent during the first
quarter of the year. It is not clear whether planned budgetary
revenues have been adjusted accordingly.  Keith Bush, RFE/RL, Inc.

Trade Union has threatened to halt all flights throughout the
nation's air space effective 0500 GMT on 18 May, Interfax reported
on 14 May. The union had sent a series of demands to the
government on 25 February, dealing with flight security, "economic
stability," professional standards, and social security, but had
received no reply. Keith Bush, RFE/RL, Inc.


ABKHAZ ROUNDUP. In a closed-door session on 13 May, the Georgian
parliament passed a resolution calling on the Georgian delegation
conducting talks with the Abkhaz in Moscow not to sign a draft
agreement on the disengagement of Georgian and Abkhaz forces and
the deployment of CIS peacekeeping troops along the Inguri river
that marks the boundary between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia,
as the agreement would not guarantee the safety of Georgian
refugees who wished to return to Abkhazia, Interfax reported.
Parliament chairman Eduard Shevardnadze denied rumors he had
threatened to resign if parliament failed to ratify the agreement,
according to Reuters. The debate continued on 14 May, but the
Georgian delegation signed the agreement in Moscow anyway, arguing
that the parliament's resolution was not legally valid. Interfax
on 15 May quoted an Abkhaz delegate to the Moscow talks as stating
that the CIS peacekeeping contingent would number 2,500-3,000,
primarily Russians, and would be deployed before the end of May.
Whether peacekeepers will also be deployed on the Abkhaz-Russian
frontier, as the Georgian side had demanded, is not clear.  Liz
Fuller, RFE/RL, Inc.

CRACKDOWN ON CRIME IN TBILISI . . . In a large-scale crackdown
against illegal trafficking in arms and drugs, some 7,000 police
sealed off Tbilisi completely during the morning of 14 May and
arrested some 40 people wanted for serious crimes; quantities of
arms and 100 stolen cars were confiscated, Tbilisi Television
reported. Analogous raids took place in seven other towns or
raions. On 15 May, a bomb exploded in the Armenian Drama Theatre
in Tbilisi just before the beginning of a performance of a
children's play, killing one child and seriously injuring 16 other
people, ITAR-TASS and Interfax reported.  Liz Fuller, RFE/RL, Inc.

. . . AND ON POLITICAL OPPOSITION IN BAKU. A group of 150 members
of the Azerbaijani Society for the Defense of Women were
forcefully prevented by police from picketing the Azerbaijani
parliament on 13 May to protest the signing of the Bishkek
protocol on Nagorno-Karabakh, Interfax reported. During the night
of 13 May, some 300 armed persons attacked the Baku headquarters
of the opposition National Independence Party; on 14 May police
blockaded the Baku office of the Azerbaijan Popular Front's
newspaper Azadlyg and pressured journalists to leave the building;
employees of the news agency Turan who share the premises were
also forced to vacate their office.  Liz Fuller, RFE/RL, Inc.

KARIMOV IN JAPAN. Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov is in Japan
on a four-day official visit that is expected to focus on
increasing trade between the two countries, Western agencies
reported on 16 May. Uzbekistan is reported to want Japanese help
in developing oil and gas extraction while Japanese firms are
studying the possibility of an oil pipeline from Central Asia to
the Pacific. Japan's Charge d'affaires in Tashkent, Kodzi Hino was
quoted by AFP on 15 May as saying that Japan could offer
development aid and loans but Hino added that there has not been
time to prepare agreements. He complained that taxes on foreign
businesses in Uzbekistan are not encouraging further investment.
Bess Brown, RFE/RL, Inc.

Kyrgyzstan's parliament, Medetkan Sherimkulov, is participating in
the haj, the Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca, and plans to use the
occasion to expand Kyrgyzstan's relations with Saudi Arabia,
ITAR-TASS reported on 13 May. Kyrgyzstan's President Askar Akaev
made the pilgrimage in 1993.  Bess Brown, RFE/RL, Inc.

Minister of Finance Sergei Dubinin was quoted by Interfax on 15
May as saying that Russia is not insisting on monetary unification
with Tajikistan. In Dubinin's view, Tajikistan should introduce
"national coupons" and finance its spending independently instead
of relying on Russian loans. In early May Tajikistan's head of
state, parliament chairman Imomali Rakhmonov, visited Moscow to
discuss the monetary union which, if Dubinin's remarks are
indicative of Russian government thinking, is apparently desired
more by the Tajik than the Russian side.  Bess Brown, RFE/RL, Inc.

                    CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

reported on 14 May that a ceremony took place in Geneva to mark
the agreement between the two parties to the new Bosnian
federation, which was launched through a series of declarations
signed in Washington in February and in March. The pact includes
provisions for dividing top government jobs and for drawing the
borders of the new cantons. The trickiest aspect proved to be
setting up arrangements for central Bosnia and Mostar, which both
sides claim, but eventually it was decided to establish two
multi-ethnic cantons, one based on Travnik and the other on the
Herzegovinian capital. The pact calls for the new federation to
include 58% of the entire republic's territory, while the
agreement drawn up by Western allies and Russia on 13 May gives it
only 51%. AFP says that, as a result of this discrepancy, there
was no formal signing of the Muslim-Croat document. Meanwhile,
Reuters reported on 14 May from Sarajevo that the Muslims and
Croats have set up a joint command headed by Generals Fikret
Muslimovic and Ante Roso, respectively.  Patrick Moore, RFE/RL,

International media reported on 13 May that a meeting of foreign
ministers in Geneva had produced a coordinated and detailed
framework for ending the Bosnian conflict. The United States,
Russia, the EU, Germany, Britain, France, Belgium, and Greece
participated. The 14 May Los Angeles Times noted that "they
produced a three-page statement that emphasized their
determination to convene peace talks, spelled out basic terms for
a settlement, artfully glossed over some of the issues that have
divided them in the past, and did not say what they would do if
any of the Bosnian factions failed to respond. Their statement
calls for a settlement that divides Bosnia into two republics--one
Serb, one a Muslim-Croat federation--with an undefined
constitutional link." Sanctions on Serbia-Montenegro could be
lifted in stages as the agreement fell into place.  Patrick Moore,
RFE/RL, Inc.

Service reported on 15 May that the Muslims slammed the agreement
as rewarding ethnic cleansing and as solidifying Serb gains by
providing for a cease-fire of at least four months. The Serbs, for
their part, felt they are being asked to give up too much, and
want an indefinite cease-fire. The 15 May Los Angeles Times quotes
one US official as acknowledging that there are problems in
pushing for a settlement without any clear threat of intervention
or other direct pressure, but he concluded that "we have to give
it a shot." Patrick Moore, RFE/RL, Inc.

MUSLIMS GAIN GROUND NEAR TUZLA. The BBC reported on 15 May that
Muslim forces have been gaining territory at Serb expense after
three days of fighting in northeastern Bosnia. The Muslims are
probing the weak spots of the over-extended Serb forces and
knocked out a television tower on a hilltop. The UN fears that the
two sides may settle down to a long-term low-level conflict and
prove unwilling to negotiate seriously.  Patrick Moore, RFE/RL,

IRAN AND CROATIA DENY WEAPONS STORY. International media reported
on 13 May that Tehran and Zagreb have denied a Washington Post
story that an Iranian air force plane had delivered a least 60
tons of explosives to Zagreb on 4 May. The Post said that the
Bosnian Croats took a cut and that the materials then moved on to
Muslim lines. Meanwhile in Geneva, on 13 May AFP said that Islamic
nations are ready to send peace-keepers to Bosnia if European
nations withdraw.  Patrick Moore, RFE/RL, Inc.

media began coverage of the five-day visit by Patriarch Alexei,
head of the Russian Orthodox Church, to the former Yugoslavia.
Alexei, who began his trip in Belgrade, travels to Montenegro and
Bosnia's capital of Sarajevo and is slated to meet with Russian
peace keepers, as well as ranking Serbian politicians and
religious leaders. On 14 May Reuters quoted Alexei as saying that
one of his major aims is to "help the reconciliation of the
peoples of former Yugoslavia." In other news, on 14-15 May
Nedeljna borba carried excerpts of an interview with Andras
Agoston, leader of the ethnic Hungarian party in Serbia's
parliament, the Democratic Community of Hungarians in Vojvodina.
In the interview, Agoston expressed optimism that Serbia's
province of Vojvodina, home to the majority of rump Yugoslavia's
ethnic Hungarian minority, will eventually attain autonomy.  Stan
Markotich, RFE/RL, Inc.

public speech since his car accident ten days ago, Hungarian
Socialist Party Chairman Gyula Horn said on 15 May his party was
still thinking in terms of a coalition rather than one-party rule,
MTI reports. Even if it should win an absolute majority in the
second round of the elections on 29 May, the HSP was ready to join
forces with "all democratic forces" as well as individuals and
movements belonging to no party who did not "compromise
themselves" with the ruling Hungarian Democratic Forum, Horn said.
According to Horn, coalition talks could successfully be completed
within one month after 29 May; should the HSP get the most votes,
it should logically provide the next prime minister, he added.
Alfred Reisch, RFE/RL, Inc.

told the Sejm on 13 May that most of the strikes held in recent
weeks were technically illegal, Gazeta Wyborcza reports. Strikes
in brown-coal mines threatened national security, he noted. Pol
pledged that the government will fulfill agreements with the
unions but stressed that payment for strike days is out of the
question. The unions that organized the strikes must cover their
costs, Pol said. In the debate that followed, many deputies from
the ruling Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) criticized Prime
Minister Waldemar Pawlak. They charged that Pawlak's inconsistency
on economic policy had encouraged the strikes. Pawlak was not
present for the debate. Deputies from Pawlak's Polish Peasant
Party in turn compared striking miners unfavorably to Polish
farmers, "who have not used strike methods to withhold
production." The Sejm accepted the government's report by a vote
of 193 to 49, with 13 abstentions. Solidarity leader Marian
Krzaklewski charged that Pol's report reflected the government's
"confrontational" stance. A Solidarity spokesman threatened to
launch a "second stage" of national protest should the government
fail to open bilateral talks with the union, PAP reports.  Louisa
Vinton, RFE/RL, Inc.

May in the Slovak town of Trencianske Teplice, Slovak and Czech
Interior Ministers Ladislav Pittner and Jan Ruml, respectively,
agreed on a common border regime, CTK and TASR reported. The
ministers confirmed conclusions of a border commission which
recommended that two villages (U Sabotu and Sidonie) would not be
split between the countries. The implementation of measures to
speed up customs clearance on the Slovak side will begin on 18 May
and should be completed by the end of the month, Pittner said.
Because of limited funds, the border will be installed only at
those sections where the greatest probability of illegal crossings
exists. Concerning the archives of the former Federal Intelligence
Service, the two ministers agreed on their joint use until a
complete set of certified documents can be handed over to the
Slovak Intelligence Service.  Sharon Fisher, RFE/RL, Inc.

SLOVAK ECONOMIC UPDATE. On 12 May Slovak Statistical Office
Chairman Stefan Condik reported on economic developments for the
first quarter of 1994. In the first quarter of 1994 the inflation
rate fell to a monthly average of 0.9%. Slovakia's trade deficit
fell to only 35 million koruny in March, thanks to the
implementation of an import surcharge. In the first quarter of
1994, foreign investment rose by 723 million koruny (6.7%) since
the last quarter of 1993. Austria, Germany, the Czech Republic and
the US remained the biggest investors. The share of private sector
activity was 24.5% in industry, 59.3% in construction, 85.8% in
commerce and 52% in transport. Economy Minister Peter Magvasi
announced on 12 March that projects are being evaluated for coupon
privatization, and 35 billion koruny worth of property has already
been selected. Privatization Minister Milan Janicina said that at
least 80 to 100 billion koruny worth of property should be sold in
the next round of coupon privatization. During a meeting on 14
May, the cabinet approved a proposal to set the price of a coupon
book at 700 koruny for citizens born in 1934 or earlier and at
1000 koruny for all others. On 11 May the coalition council
discussed raising the VAT on certain goods from 6% to 25%.  Sharon
Fisher, RFE/RL, Inc.

UDF HOLDS CONFERENCE. In the midst of a serious government crisis,
Bulgaria's opposition Union of Democratic Forces held its 6th
National Conference on 14 and 15 May. Demokratsiya reports on 16
May that the coalition reiterated its position that only early
elections can set the country on the right path and that
reorganizations of the current cabinet of Lyuben Berov would only
represent futile attempts to halt the deepening political and
economic crisis. Regarding its internal structures, the delegates
approved a proposal to centralize powers with the National
Conference and the National Coordinating Council--thus depriving
the parliamentary caucus of its veto right--and to ban the
children of former top communist officials from holding positions
in the NCC or the UDF's regional and municipal executives.
Similarly, if the coalition returns to power, it will not allow
the same category of persons to join the government, the National
Assembly, or the political leadership of regions and
municipalities. On 13 May UDF Chairman Filip Dimitrov for the
first time in over a year met with President Zhelyu Zhelev, which
seems to indicate that relations between the two are warming up
after a long period of hostility. Kjell Engelbrekt, RFE/RL, Inc.

IMF APPROVES CREDITS FOR ROMANIA. The International Monetary Fund
approved on 11 May credits for Romania totaling about $454
million, an RFE/RL correspondent in Washington and Radio Bucharest
reported. The Fund's Executive Board approved a loan of about $267
million out of its special facility for nations in transformation,
as well as a regular stand-by arrangement which will allow
Bucharest to draw up to about $187 million over the next 19
months. The second half of the special transformation loan,
another $267 million, will be made available if Romania's economic
reform and stabilization efforts make sufficient progress. In
announcing the loans, the IMF said the Romanian government will
have to "press ahead vigorously" to meet the goals agreed with the
fund. The Romanian government issued a declaration welcoming the
approval of the credits.  Michael Shafir, RFE/RL, Inc.

ROMANIA AND EUROPE. The president of the European Parliament, Egon
Klepsch, is paying a visit to Romania this week. Romanian media
say Klepsch will hold talks on Romania's integration into European
political and economic structures and the country's reform
program. A delegation from Romania's parliament is in Warsaw to
participate in this week's (16 to 18 May) session of the
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. During the
session, assembly deputies will discuss Romania's compliance with
council commitments on human rights and democratic reform.
Michael Shafir, RFE/RL, Inc.

Minister, Mihai Popov, told Moldovan TV on 14 May as cited by
Basapress that the country hopes to "cooperate with a democratic
Russia which should see in Moldova a responsible and correct
partner . . . Any political intimidation and economic pressure
should be excluded from this relationship. We do not accept
statements suggesting that near abroad states' must become
satellites of Russia." Popov reiterated Moldova's demand for an
"unconditional, early, and full withdrawal" of Russian troops from
Moldova.  Vladimir Socor, RFE/RL, Inc.

On 13 May ITAR-TASS reported that the Belarusian Prime Minister
Vyacheslau Kebich said that the Russian-Belarusian monetary union
may not come off if he fails to win the presidential election.
Kebich also insisted that the union in no way infringed upon
Belarusian sovereignty and was in the country's best interest. In
other news, Belarusian radio reported on 12 May that the leader of
the centrist Party of Popular Accord, Henadz Karpenka, succeeded
in collecting over 70 signatures from parliamentary deputies in
support of his candidacy for president placing him on the 23 June
slate along with Kebich, the leader of the Party of Communists of
Belarus, Vasil Novikau, and the leader of the Belarusian Popular
Front opposition, Zyanon Paznyak. Karpenka also collected 96,000
signatures from Belarusian citizens. The signature campaigns ended
on 15 May.  Ustina Markus, RFE/RL, Inc.

KRAVCHUK ON DISARMAMENT. Ukrainian radio reported on 14 May that
President Leonid Kravchuk stated that 180 nuclear warheads have
been removed from Ukraine to Russia. He added that as the process
of disarmament is proceeding according to plan, by the end of May
all US missiles aimed at Ukraine will be recoded and Ukraine will
cease being targeted by American warheads.  Ustina Markus, RFE/RL,

reported that the Ukrainian defense minister, Vitalii Radetsky,
denied that Ukraine was building-up its forces in Crimea. In an
earlier report the Chairman of the Russian State Duma's Commission
on Commonwealth Affairs, Konstantin Zatulin, said that Kiev had
deployed some 50,000 troops in the peninsula, most of these being
residents from Western Ukraine. According to Radetsky this number
corresponds to all forces in Crimea including the Black Sea Fleet,
police forces, spetsnaz units and paramilitary guards.  Ustina
Markus, RFE/RL, Inc.

reported on 14 May that Russian representatives had told Western
nuclear energy experts at a meeting in Stockholm that Russia would
dismantle soon--possibly by the end of 1995--the two nuclear
reactors in the former Soviet naval base in Paldiski, Estonia.
These experts also formed the Paldiski International Expert
Reference Group, and chose as its leader Jan Olof Snihs from
Sweden. BNS reported on 12 May that Estonia was becoming concerned
over Russia's delay in starting the actual dismantling, earlier
scheduled to begin on 15 May. Meanwhile, the Commander of Russia's
Baltic Fleet, Admiral Vladimir Yegorov, could not visit Estonia on
12 May as planned because Tallinn had not issued the required
permit. Estonian officials say that the Russian embassy had
informed them of Yegorov's intent only two days earlier, whereas
international practice calls for at least fifteen-days' notice for
such visits. Russia's military attache in Tallinn, Anatolii
Chizhikov, claimed that Estonia and Russia had agreed earlier to a
five-day notice. He said that Yegorov's visit was connected to the
withdrawal of Russian naval forces from Estonia. Furthermore, both
Estonia and Latvia had not granted visas to Yegorov's entourage of
10 journalists. BNS and Interfax of 12 and 14 May did not specify
whether Yegorov also intended to visit Latvia. Dzintra Bungs,
RFE/RL, Inc.

During a three-day meeting in Jurmala, the Baltic Assembly urged
Russia to stop "psychological pressure" on Estonia and to remove
its troops from there by 31 August, as planned previously. The
parliamentarians from the three states said that they regarded any
threat or form of pressure against one of the Baltic States as a
threat against all of them. They also called on the European
states to condemn the use of ethnic minority problems as a means
of political pressure against their countries. Russia has often
linked its relations with the Baltic States to demands for changes
in the treatment of ethnic Russians living in the Baltics, Russian
and Baltic media reported on 15 May.  Dzintra Bungs, RFE/RL, Inc.

  [As of 1200 CET]
  Compiled by Vladimir Socor and Michael Shafir
The RFE/RL DAILY REPORT, produced by the RFE/RL Research
Institute (a division of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Inc.)
with the assistance of the RFE/RL News and Current Affairs
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