Ни один собеседник не стал бы слушать, если бы не знал, что потом наступит его очередь говорить. - Э. У. Хоу
RFE/RL Daily Report

No. 67, 8 April 1994


Russian executive branch, as well as from the Foreign and Defense
Ministries, on 7 April denied that Russia has any intention of
establishing a military base in Latvia, and blamed the confusion
surrounding a Yeltsin directive to that effect on an unexplained
technical error in the text. The uproar in Moscow and Riga
apparently began with a short ITAR-TASS report on 6 April that said
that Yeltsin had issued a directive approving a Defense Ministry
proposal for the establishment of 30 military bases in other CIS
states and in Latvia. The text of the actual directive, which was
dated 5 April and which contained two references to Latvia,
appeared in Rossiiskie vesti on 7 April. Presidential spokesman
Vyacheslav Kostikov quickly affirmed that the Russian-controlled
Skrunda radar station in Latvia did not have the status of a
military base and that Moscows relations with Latvia in such
matters continued to be based on a previously agreed to bilateral
military withdrawal agreement. Stephen Foye, RFE/RL, Inc.

growing confusion within government circles, the source of the
directive and the inclusion of the references to Latvia in it
immediately became the object of suspicious speculation in Moscow.
Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev was quoted as saying we dont know
where this order comes from nor with whom it was agreed. According
to Radio Rossii, he compared its appearance to that of the
mysterious version number 1, a document purportedly outlining a
plot to overthrow the president. According to Izvestiya on 8 April,
however, other diplomats rejected the possibility of such a subtext
and attributed the errors in the document to the fact that the
president was given an old and outdated document to sign. According
to Mayak Radio, Sergei Zotov, the head of the Russian state
delegation for talks with Latvia, placed blame for the confusion on
illiterate work by individuals within the state apparatus. Stephen
Foye, RFE/RL, Inc.

proposed an increase in the allocation to defense in the draft
federal budget for 1994. In an interview with Interfax on 7 April,
the deputy chairman of the parliamentary defense committee,
Aleksandr Piskunov, claimed that the Defense Ministry had requested
a total of 87 trillion rubles for 1994--slightly more than reported
earlier--while the draft budget provides only 37.1 trillion rubles.
This virtually means that we draft a man into the army and give him
arms, but do not feed him. In order to maintain the defense
industry at its 1993 level and to set aside 10 percent of defense
expenditure for research and development, Piskunovs committee
proposes to increase the defense vote by 4 trillion rubles. It is
planned to offset the increase by savings on external economic
activities, civil defense, pre-service preparation, and manned
space flights.  Keith Bush, RFE/RL, Inc.

PROJECTION OF ARMS SALES. The director general of Rosvooruzheniye,
the newly created umbrella organization for all arms sales, has
predicted a substantial increase in the value of Russian military
hardware sold on the world market. In an interview with Interfax on
7 April, Viktor Samoilov reckoned that cash sales could increase in
1994 by 100-150 percent over 1993 [i.e., to about $4-5 billion],
while total sales for convertible currency, including purchases on
credit, could reach $10-15 billion. He hinted that Russia may not
adhere to existing embargoes on arms sales, but did not specify
which countries he had in mind. He called for long-term planning
for the defense industry and for arms sales and promised to curtail
capital flight insofar as defense manufacturers were concerned.
Keith Bush, RFE/RL, Inc.

PROBLEMS WITH COCOM . . . US Undersecretary of State Lynn Davis
told reporters on 7 April that Russian arms sales to Iran were one
factor obstructing agreement on a new international export control
regime. Members of COCOM (Coordinating Committee for Multilateral
Export Controls) had recently agreed to eliminate most of the Cold
War controls on exports of a number of hi-tech items to former
Soviet bloc countries and China, and, following disbandment of the
old organization, are attempting to establish a successor
organization. The Clinton Administration and other member states
hope to make Russian participation a cornerstone of the new regime,
but, according to Davis, Moscow does not share precisely our view
with respect to the dangers in sales to Iran. According to Reuters,
Davis added, however, that Moscow still had not foreclosed the
possibility that it would go along on the issue.  Stephen Foye,
RFE/RL, Inc.

. . . CONCERNS OVER BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS. Despite repeated assurances
from Boris Yeltsin, the Clinton Administration is convinced that
Russia has not entirely shut down the production of biological
weapons, The Washington Post reported on 8 April. The US allegation
is reportedly based in part on recent US and British inspections of
major biological research centers in Russia, and on what was
described as a detailed account of secret Russian research on germ
weapons obtained from a scientist who defected to the US in 1993.
We have evidence that leads us to understand that there is still an
offensive biological weapons program underway in Russia, a US
official was quoted as saying; we are very concerned that large
aspects of the program are continuing. The charges come following
the dismissal by Boris Yeltsin of Anatolii Kuntsevich, the director
of the Russian Committee on Problems of Chemical and Biological
Disarmament. According to the same report, Kuntsevich was regarded
by Washington as an obstacle to progress on the germ weapons issue.
Stephen Foye, RFE/RL, Inc.

REPORT ON PRIVATIZATION. At the weekly cabinet meeting on 7 April,
Deputy Prime Minister Anatolii Chubais presented a report on the
progress to date of voucher privatization and outlined his plans
for post-voucher privatization due to start on 1 July, ITAR-TASS
and Interfax reported. By 4 April, 105 million Russians had
invested their vouchers, and Chubais was confident that the
remaining 45 million vouchers would be invested before mid-June.
About 80 percent of the 20,000 eligible large-and medium-sized
enterprise have already been converted into joint-stock companies.
Among the features of the post-privatization program mentioned were
the transfer of part of the funds derived from privatization to
social security purposes, and the use of G-7 grants for supporting
post-privatization operations. Keith Bush, RFE/RL, Inc.

the Administration for Counterintelligence Operations of the
Federal Counterintelligence Service, Boris Miroshnikov, told
ITAR-TASS on 6 April that countries of the so-called near abroad
(former Soviet republics) have established their own intelligence
centers. He said that these centers have taken over the
jurisdiction of local state security structures of the former
Soviet republics and have started active intelligence and
subversive operations against Russia, exploiting the political
instability in the hot regions of the Russian Federation. According
to Miroshnikov, the intelligence services of the near abroad
countries were using the Islamic factor and other forms of
aggressive nationalism for their purposes. Alexander Rahr, RFE/RL,

POLL ON PARTNERSHIP FOR PEACE.  The All-Russia Center for the Study
of Public Opinion conducted a poll of 1,600 Russian citizens to
assess public attitudes toward Russian participation in NATOs
Partnership for Peace program. According to the survey, 49 percent
of Russians want their country to join the NATO program, 15 percent
oppose it, and 36 percent were undecided. The high percentage of
respondents indicating that they are undecided in this poll is
paralleled by similar undecided responses in other polls on foreign
policy issues. This ambivalence may suggest that the public
considers other issues, such as the economy, more important and
relevant to them.  Suzanne Crow, RFE/RL, Inc.

SHAKHRAI PROMOTED. Sergei Shakhrai, Minister for Nationalities and
Regional Policy and leader of the Party of Russian Unity and
Concord, has been promoted to the post of Deputy Prime Minister,
ITAR-TASS reported on 7 April. Shakhrai had occupied that position
already from 1992 until January 1994. When President Boris Yeltsin
decided to downsize the governments bureaucracy, Shakhrai lost that
post and became an ordinary minister. His reappointment indicates
his high standing in the hierarchy. Shakhrai has recently been
criticized for his leading role in drafting the amnesty act of the
State Duma which set free the organizers of the October 1993 armed
rebellion. Shakhrai is regarded as a close associate of Prime
Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin.  Alexander Rahr, RFE/RL, Inc.

DISARRAY IN RUSSIAS CHOICE. One of the co-founders of the Russian
democratic movement and former State Secretary Gennadii Burbulis
has quit the faction of Russias Choice, ITAR-TASS reported on 7
April. The leader of the faction, Egor Gaidar, said that one should
not overdramatize that step. Gaidar and Burbulis had been for some
time at odds over who should lead Russias Choice. Segodnya on 7
April reported that Gaidar plans to set up a coordinating council
in order to harmonize the activities of his faction with two other
reformist blocs in the parliament--the bloc of Grigorii Yavlinsky
and former Finance Minister Boris Fedorovs Union of 12 December.
The Union of 12 December has reportedly asked Russias Choice to
lend it some of its deputies in order to be able to register
officially as a faction in the State Duma. Fedorov categorically
denied that.  Alexander Rahr, RFE/RL, Inc.

LOCAL ELECTIONS CONTINUE. Local government elections will take
place in Sverdlovsk Oblast on 10 April, but 82 percent of the
inhabitants of the regional capital, Yekaterinburg, do not
understand the rules under which the elections are being held,
Russian TV reported on 5 April. Voter apathy has been blamed for
the low turnout in many local regions, but the chairman of the
Committee on Local Government of the Russian State Duma, Anatolii
Sliva, says in an article in Moscow News (No. 13) that the real
reason is that local government still has no real power in Russia.
Until more responsibility is devolved from the center to the
regions, Sliva writes, Russia will never be able to build a
democratic system. Elizabeth Teague, RFE/RL, Inc.


between Kazakhs and the inhabitants of two Cossack villages in
Taldy-Kurgan Oblast, Interfax reported on 7 April. Taldy-Kurgan
Kazakhs threatened to attack the two villages after Cossack
residents designated them border outposts. Phone communications
with the villages have been severed. Local police have prevented
Cossacks from other areas from reaching the two settlements; six
Cossacks who were detained earlier are reported to be on a hunger
strike. The report quoted Cossack leaders and a spokesman of the
Russian-speaking community of northern Kazakhstan as fearing an
outbreak of violence that could prove contagious--the spokesman,
Boris Supunok, compared the situation in Kazakhstan with that in
the Transdniestrian region of Moldova.  Bess Brown, RFE/RL, Inc.

                    CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

8 April quote Secretary of State Warren Christopher as saying that
Washington would like quick deployment of the 1,000 Ukrainian
peacekeepers waiting to be sent to the besieged east Bosnian Muslim
enclave that has been under a renewed Serb attack for over a week.
He pointed out that air power could then be used to protect the UN
forces. CNN quotes a report from UN workers in the town critical of
other UN officials who tried to play down the significance of the
Serb assault. UN officials in Sarajevo have gotten verbal
agreements from Serb and Muslim commanders for a 24-hour ceasefire
throughout Bosnia, but this does not appear to have affected the
situation in Gorazde.  Patrick Moore, RFE/RL, Inc.

AMMUNITION DUMP EXPLODES IN ZAGREB. Vecernji list reports on 8
April that a fire the previous afternoon set off many shells at
Croatias largest ammunition depot. The projectiles fell on several
districts until 6 p.m., causing at least eight injuries and general
chaos. Those living within 2.5 kilometers of the base were
evacuated for the day, while those living farther out were told to
take to their basements. Croatian Radio told listeners that the
city was not under attack, but the cause of the fire has not yet
been determined.  Patrick Moore, RFE/RL, Inc.

CROATIA TO SEND BACK REFUGEES. In Zagreb the authorities announced
that 15,000 refugees from Bosnia-Herzegovina must leave Croatia,
Reuters reported on 6 April. The old, infirm, and homeless are
excepted, but those living in relatively peaceful areas must now
return, and the first group will consist of 8,000 from Mostar.
Croatia plays host to some half a million refugees, whose support
costs the government $62 million per month, the second largest item
in the state budget after defense. About half of the refugees are
from Bosnia-Herzegovina, and the presence of so many displaced
persons has led to numerous social tensions.  Patrick Moore,
RFE/RL, Inc.

Albanian President Sali Berisha met with his counterpart, Suleyman
Demirel, and Prime Minister Tansu Ciller, Rilindja reported on 6
April. Demirel said that the visit will mean an even higher level
of relations, which are already very good. They discussed improving
political, economic, and military cooperation, and signed a trade
agreement. In particular, Demirel promised to provide advice on
matters regarding legislation and to help develop Albanian
telecommunications. Ciller pledged to promote Turkish investments
in Albania and the Turkish Agricultural Bank will soon open a
branch in Tirana. According to Rilindja, both countries share a
similar point of view on the Kosovo crisis, describing it in
Demirels words as very delicate. Berisha was expected to meet with
the leader of the opposition Motherland Party (ANAP) Mesut Yilmaz
as well, Lajmi i Dites reported on 5 April.  Fabian Schmidt,
RFE/RL, Inc.

POLAND FILES FOR EU MEMBERSHIP. Poland submitted a formal
application for membership in the European Union on 8 April, PAP
reports. Informing the Sejm of the governments plans on 7 April,
Polish Foreign Minister Andrzej Olechowski said that Polands road
to the EU will be long and hard, with full integration possible
only after 2000. He stressed, however, that Polands position is no
worse than that of Greece, Portugal, or Spain when they applied for
membership. In a rare display of unanimity, all the parties in the
Sejm supported the application. Polands move comes in the wake of
Hungarys application on 1 April; the two countries are striving to
preserve the joint approach to Western institutions that was the
guiding principle of the Visegrad group. Czech Foreign Minister
Josef Zieleniec signaled his countrys disinclination to follow the
same route in a lecture at Charles University on 7 April. The Czech
Republic will not join the ranks of developed countries simply
through a legal act, Zieleniec said.  Louisa Vinton, RFE/RL, Inc.

POLISH SEJM ACCEPTS WALESAS VETO. Despite an appeal from Prime
Minister Waldemar Pawlak, the Sejm failed on 7 April to muster the
two-thirds majority necessary to override the presidents veto of
the new wage control bill. The vote was 243 to 146 with 10
abstentions; 266 votes were needed to override. The bill is now
dead; the finance ministry has indicated it will draft new
wage-control legislation by 12 April. Supporting the veto were the
OPZZ unionists in the ruling coalition and virtually the entire
opposition, including the traditionally proreform Democratic Union
(UD). The OPZZ opposes wage controls on principle, while the UD
objected to the bills potential to penalize private as well as
state firms. Coalition leaders urged deputies to support the bill
in order to forestall a new surge of inflation and collect revenues
planned in the 1994 budget. Pawlak told reporters after the vote
that there is no need for panic and said he expects state firms and
unions to exercise restraint. The vote has political as well as
economic implications; it suggests that divisions in the ruling
coalition have made it susceptible to presidential pressure. Louisa
Vinton, RFE/RL, Inc.

WALESA SETS POLITICAL CONDITIONS. After the Sejm vote, Sejm Speaker
Jozef Oleksy, a Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) leader, met with
President Lech Walesa. Oleksy urged Walesa to sign the 1994 budget.
Signaling his intention to make further use of his veto power as
leverage in his battle with the coalition for the upper hand,
Walesa said he has not yet made up his mind about the budget or the
amended law on local government elections. The president also
refused to discuss the coalitions nominee for finance minister,
Dariusz Rosati. Walesa agreed to consider a meeting with coalition
leaders on the condition that they drop Rosatis candidacy. Walesa
also indicated that the coalition parties will have to consult with
him first on any candidate for the vacant ministerial post if they
hope to win his agreement to the appointment. The constitution says
that the president may make changes in the cabinet at the prime
ministers request. Labor Minister Leszek Miller told Polish TV that
the coalition has a new candidate for finance minister but refused
to name any names.  Louisa Vinton, RFE/RL, Inc.

current offensive, however effective, does not seem to have earned
him favor with the public. A Demoskop opinion poll reported by PAP
on 6 April showed that 70% of respondents assessed Walesas
performance in recent weeks as bad or very bad, while only 19%
judged it good or very good. A CBOS poll reported on 7 April showed
that only 5% believe that Walesa is the best candidate for
president, whereas 17% prefer Democratic Left Alliance leader
Aleksander Kwasniewski; 10% favor Prime Minister Waldemar Pawlak;
8% support heart surgeon Zbigniew Religa; and 6% opt for,
respectively, Zbigniew Brzezinski, former Foreign Minister
Krzysztof Skubiszewski, and current Foreign Minister Andrzej
Olechowski. Walesas 5% ranking was matched by reform architect
Leszek Balcerowicz, former Prime Minister Hanna Suchocka, and
current Justice Minister Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz. Presidential
elections are due to take place at the end of 1995.  Louisa Vinton,
RFE/RL, Inc.

ministry spokesman told journalists on 7 April that the Czech
government had rejected a request by the RDP group, a consortium
made up of 40 Czech arms and heavy machinery manufactures, to
export military technology to Iran. The RDP group wanted to send to
Iran repair technology for the Soviet-designed T-72 tank. Under
Czech law, military technology exports must be approved by the
trade, foreign, interior, and defense ministries on a case-by-case
basis. All four ministries rejected the request. Jiri Pehe, RFE/RL,

Democrats Chairman Milan Knazko announced his partys merger with
the Democratic Union of Slovakia (formerly the Alternative of
Political Realism), of which Premier Jozef Moravcik is a member.
The new party, to be known as the Democratic Union of Slovakia,
will hold its first congress on 23 April. The move was made in
preparation for early parliamentary elections, which are planned
for 30 September and 1 October. Also on 7 April, the
extraparliamentary Democratic Party presented a formal offer of a
preelection coalition to the Christian Democratic Movement. The CDM
expressed interest in active cooperation but said it preferred to
wait at least until June before choosing political partners.
Meanwhile, the Green Party announced it will consider forming a
coalition with the Party of the Democratic Left, the Social
Democratic Party and the Movement of Peasants, TASR reported on 7
April.  Sharon Fisher, RFE/RL, Inc.

police corps presented its report on crime in the first three
months of 1994. During that period Slovakias crime rate grew by 30%
in comparison with the same period of 1993. Although the number of
murders and robberies declined, theft and property crime grew
considerably. A total of 20 murders was reported, of which 18 were
solved. There were 110 robberies, 43 sexual offenses, and 11,786
burglaries. Crime linked with privatization and tax evasion was
also on the rise. During the first three months of 1994, the police
collected 743 counterfeit bank notes, both of Slovak and foreign
currencies, TASR reported.  Sharon Fisher, RFE/RL, Inc.

Goncz and Prime Minister Peter Boross addressed the parliament to
assess its four years in office, MTI reports. Recalling that the
parliament had adopted over 400 laws, Goncz thanked the deputies
for laying the foundations of the new democratic Hungarys
political, legal, and economic institutional system. Goncz urged
that the next parliament adopt as soon as possible important
legislation on a human and minority rights ombudsman, media, and
parliamentary representation for minorities, which the first
post-communist parliament failed to pass. Boross told the deputies
that their four-year term was characterized by a change in
mentality and a change of regime and will be considered an
epoch-making period in Hungarian history.  Edith Oltay, RFE/RL,

WARNING STRIKE AT HUNGARIAN RADIO. On 7 April radio journalists
staged a warning strike to protest the recent sacking of 129
broadcasters, MTI reports. Radio programs were shortened during a
two-hour period in the morning and again in the afternoon. The
strike was called by the Independent Radio Trade Union. Numerous
trade unions expressed their solidarity with the strikers. Radio
journalists and opposition parties charge that the dismissals were
politically motivated while the radios management cites economic
reasons. Radio deputy chairman Laszlo Csucs threatened those
participating in the strike with disciplinary action should the
courts rule the strike illegal.  Edith Oltay, RFE/RL, Inc.

BEROV RESUMES OFFICE. After nearly four weeks in hospital where he
underwent quadruple bypass surgery, Prime Minister Lyuben Berov
chaired his first cabinet meeting. Government spokesman Raycho
Raykov told Reuters that Berov has not yet been finally checked out
from hospital, but nonetheless intends to preside over all cabinet
meetings from now on. On the same day, the government issued a
statement by Berov responding to criticism of his administration by
President Zhelyu Zhelev who had declared in an interview on 2 April
that he can no longer support the cabinet. Berov called Zhelevs
remarks emotional, exaggerated, and one-sided.  Kjell Engelbrekt,
RFE/RL, Inc.

is currently the countrys strongest political force, according to
an opinion survey published on 7 April. The poll, which is based on
interviews with 1,103 Bulgarians, shows the BSP gaining 22% of the
vote and the opposition UDF 20%. The Turkish MRF party, which in
the October 1991 election became the third largest caucus, failed
to get over the 4% parliamentary hurdle. Some 29% said they would
abstain from voting. Reuters carried the report.  Kjell Engelbrekt,
RFE/RL, Inc.

announced massive price hikes for gasoline, natural gas,
electricity and thermic energy beginning 7 April, Radio Bucharest
reports. A liter of gasoline will cost 450 lei (about 27 cents), up
from 400 (22 cents). The price for Diesel fuel increased from 290
to 350 (20 cents) per liter. Prices for electricity also increased
by 42%, from 28 to 40 lei per kilowatt, while thermic energy will
cost 12,000 per giga-calorie instead of 9,000. A cabinet spokesman
predicted that the hikes will result in a general price increase of
between 12 and 14%. Prices for train, tram and trolley-bus tickets
are expected to rise soon, in line with the new energy prices.
Although the new prices are still far below the Western European
average, the increase is substantial by Romanian standards. The
average monthly salary in Romania is about 106,000 lei ($63).  Dan
Ionescu, RFE/RL, Inc.

ambassador to Riga, Aleksandr Rannikh, apologized officially for
the technical error in the published text of a presidential decree
that included Latvia as a state with which Russia would negotiate
for permanent military bases, ITAR-TASS reports. He said that the
radar station at Skrunda was a military establishment, under
civilian control, and cannot be regarded as a military base. Its
future was determined by the agreement on Russian troop withdrawal
initialed on 15 March. He expressed surprise that a copy of the
decree reached the Latvian foreign ministry before it reached its
Russian counterpart. Latvian Prime Minister Valdis Birkavs said on
Latvian TV that verbal apologies are not enough and the agreement
cannot be signed without additional talks and official revocation
of the decree.  Saulius Girnius, RFE/RL, Inc.

Lithuanian Prime Minister Adolfas Slezevicius told a press
conference that President Algirdas Brazauskas had sent a note to
Russian President Boris Yeltsin outlining the problems in
Lithuanian-Russian cooperation, Radio Lithuania reports.
Slezevicius said that he had not received any response to his
letters and attempts to talk to his Russian counterpart Viktor
Chernomyrdin about why Russia has not ratified the most favored
nation trade agreement they had signed in Vilnius in November.
Slezevicius said that the import regulations introduced by Russia
on 15 March were bluntly discriminating and if they were not
changed, Lithuania would respond with adequate measures in relation
to the Kaliningrad Oblast. Estonian President Lennart Meri, Prime
Minister Mart Laar, and parliament chairman Ulo Nugis issued a
joint statement protesting Yeltsins decree on establishing a
military base in Latvia, BNS reports. It also condemned Russias
decision to retract on the date for the withdrawal of its troops
from Estonia and link it to permanent residency for military
retirees. Saulius Girnius, RFE/RL, Inc.

Chairman Ceslovas Jursenas began a two-day visit to Tallinn, Radio
Lithuania reports. He held talks with his Estonian counterpart Ulo
Nugis, focusing on the Baltic States relations with Russia and the
need for greater Baltic cooperation. Jursenas also met with the
Estonian president and prime minister as well as deputy parliament
chairmen Edgar Savissar and Tunne Kelam. On 8 April Jursenas will
visit the National Library and the Estonian School of Diplomacy
before returning to Vilnius in the evening.  Saulius Girnius,
RFE/RL, Inc.

Ukrainian parliament will be held on 9 and 10 April for the
majority of seats which were left unfilled after the voting on 27
March. Because of the way the new election law was designed, most
of the candidates have stood as independent candidates and not
nominees of political parties. At this stage it is still difficult
to predict what the likely balance of forces will be in the new
parliament, though the democrats and reformist are hoping to win a
third of the 450 seats. As expected, national democrats have been
winning in Western and central Ukraine, and Communists and
Socialists doing well in Eastern Ukraine. Bohdan Nahaylo, RFE/RL,

[As of 1200 CET]

Compiled by Suzanne Crow and Anna Swidlicka
The RFE/RL Daily Report is produced by the RFE/RL Research
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