Пользуйтесь, но не злоупотребляйте - таково правило мудрости. Ни возержание, ни излишества не дают счастья. - Вольтер
RFE/RL Daily Report

No. 221, 18 November 1993

	Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Inc.


reported on 17-November that one day earlier the bulk (all but
one-and-a-half pages of a reportedly twenty-three page document)
of Russia's recently announced military doctrine had been released
to the press by spokesmen for the Russian Security Council. Izvestiya
on 18-November carried what appears to be an almost complete
text of the doctrine. The Kommersant-Daily account contained
a few surprises. For one, it said that the doctrine includes
among the external threats to Russia the suppression of the rights
and legitimate interests of Russian citizens living abroad (presumably
in the former Soviet republics), efforts by outside powers to
interfere in the internal affairs of Russia, and attacks on Russian
military installations located on the territory of foreign states.
The first of these provisions in particular is likely to cause
concern throughout the former Soviet Union and the West; it had
been included in a draft military doctrine published last spring
but after provoking criticism was rumored to have been removed
from the revised doctrine. Kommersant-Daily suggested that the
Defense Ministry had in fact gotten much of what it wanted in
the new doctrine; it mentioned specifically clauses on the use
of nuclear weapons, on conducting offensive military operations,
and on raising the overall manpower levels of the armed forces.
-Stephen Foye

DOCTRINE ON NATO, NUCLEAR CONTROL. According to the text published
in Izvestiya, the doctrine includes in its list of items considered
to be potential military threats to Russia a clause including
"the widening of military blocs and alliances damaging the security
interests of the Russian Federation." A more serious level of
threat, that called "direct military threats to Russia," includes
any attempts to interfere with support systems for strategic
weapons, a clear reference to possible Ukrainian attempts to
take over nuclear command and control, and, conceivably, to Latvia's
concern over the Skrunda radar station. It also includes the
introduction of foreign troops onto the soil of a neighboring
country under this heading. -John Lepingwell

YELTSIN IN TULA. Accompanied by Defense Minister Pavel Grachev,
President Boris Yeltsin on 17 November donned a camouflaged officer's
field uniform and braved cold weather for over two hours while
observing a military exercise in the Tula region. During his
stay, Yeltsin also conducted meetings with local governmental
officials and defense industrial managers on issues of defense
conversion, arms production, and arms sales. While Rossiiskie
vesti reported on 18 November that Yeltsin had made it clear
that the era of cheap loans and government subsidies to the military-industrial
sector had ended, other Western and Russian reports suggested
that the President had promised to increase spending on military
research and to permit defense plants to keep a larger share
of military export earnings. ITAR-TASS quoted Yeltsin as saying
that: "We must think about defense priorities and develop them
so as not to fall behind the United States and other countries."
-Stephen Foye

on 17 November for the scrapping of some 17,000 tanks and other
military hardware under the first phase of the CFE Treaty, Russia
has apparently continued to press for changes in the treaty's
sublimits that restrict Moscow's military deployments in the
Caucasus and St. Petersburg regions. Reuters on 16-November quoted
Lt. Gen. Vladimir Zhurbenko, first deputy chief of the Russian
General Staff, as warning that a failure by the West to allow
Russia greater flexibility in these areas could raise tensions
within the Russian officer corps and slow the withdrawal to Russia
of those former Soviet forces still stationed abroad. On 17 November,
AFP quoted Western diplomats as saying that Russia's objections
had marred an otherwise successful global disarmament initiative,
with one official calling Moscow's efforts "the most intense
. . . campaign" since the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF)
agreement; "the campaign is being led above all by the Russian
military," he added. According to the same report, Ukraine has
also asked for amendments to the CFE Treaty claiming, like Russia,
that it faces new military pressures on its borders. -Stephen

INDUSTRIALISTS ENTER ELECTION RACE. The Russian Union of Industrialists'
and Manufacturers, which constitutes the main part of the Civic
Union electoral bloc, held a congress on 16 November to present
its program for parliamentary elections, ITAR-TASS reported.
Its leader, Arkadii Volsky, said that if the Civic Union comes
to power it will strengthen the industrial sector. He called
upon the powerful enterprise directors' lobby, which is well
organized in the regions, to secure the election of Civic Union
supporters in the ballots on the regional level. The co-leader
of the Party of Russian Unity and Concord, Aleksandr Shokhin,
called in his speech to the congress for a coalition between
the Civic Union and his party, and said that mass unemployment
should be prevented in Russia by all means. -Alexander Rahr

city soviet (council) has decided to defy Yeltsin's order that
it should disband and is now the last major city council still
refusing to dissolve itself, ITAR-TASS reported on 16 November.
The council met in special session that day for what had been
expected to be its final meeting. The session was convened on
the initiative of Mayor Anatolii Sobchak in order to comply with
Yeltsin's demand that city soviets should disband. Instead, ITAR-TASS
said, 230 of the 292 deputies present voted against the dissolution.
(The full soviet consists of 390 deputies.) -Elizabeth Teague


THREE MORE STATES TO ABANDON RUBLE. Belarus, Armenia and Moldova
will soon leave the ruble zone, according to Interfax on 17 November.
The Russian and Belarusian central banks have drafted an "interim
agreement" to decouple their monetary systems by formally recognizing
the Russian ruble and Belarusian zaichik as the exclusive legal
tender in their respective nations. No definite time frame was
given for the move. Citing "sources in Yerevan's financial quarters,"
Interfax reported that the Armenian dram would be introduced
on 22 November. In Moldova, the first vice president of the national
bank, Dmitry Ursu, confirmed the Moldovan lei would be introduced
some time before 29 November. Of the five nations that agreed
in September to form a "ruble zone of a new type" with Russia,
only Tajikistan seems now to lack concrete plans for abandoning
the idea. -Erik Whitlock

START-1 WITHOUT LISBON . . . An article in Kievskiye vedomosti
of 17 November, apparently based on an interview with Deputy
Parliamentary Speaker Vasyl Durdinets, clarifies the confusing
Ukrainian parliamentary position on nuclear arms control treaties.
One option being considered is to ratify START-1 without the
Lisbon protocol. In this case, Ukraine would then consider itself
bound to dismantle 36% of its launchers carrying 42% of its total
warheads. The SS-24 missiles would be kept indefinitely. This
would cost an estimated $2.8 billion, although if all warheads
were demounted and transferred to Russia the cost would increase
to $4-5 billion. According to the article, only the START-1 treaty,
but not the Lisbon protocol, is on the parliamentary agenda.
What legal status the treaty would have if ratified without the
protocol is unclear, for the very purpose of the protocol was
to bind the Soviet successor states to a treaty negotiated before
they became independent. -John Lepingwell

. . . OR LISBON WITHOUT ARTICLE FIVE? Another option being discussed
is the ratification of START-1 together with the Lisbon protocol,
but with the protocol amended so as to drop article five, according
to Kievskiye vedomosti and AFP. Article five commits Ukraine
to adhere to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) "in the
shortest possible time" as a non-nuclear state. This option would
at least appear legally to bind Ukraine to the provisions of
the START treaty, although it would probably not be sufficient
to cause the treaty to enter into force, since both the Russian
and US decisions on ratification required that Ukraine join the
NPT. While President Kravchuk has called upon the parliament
to ratify NPT, it apparently will not be discussed at the current
session, and a large number of deputies believe Ukrainian accession
to the NPT should be postponed until the treaty is reviewed in
1995. -John Lepingwell


TAJIKISTAN ROUNDUP. On 17 November UN Secretary-General Boutros
Ghali informed the UN Security Council that the military and
humanitarian situation in Tajikistan is deteriorating; fighting
is intensifying, particularly in the Khatlon and Gorno-Badakhshan
regions, according to a correspondent for RFE/RL. Boutros-Ghali
urged the Tajik government and opposition groups to begin serious
negotiations "without further delay;" he also said he is considering
expanding the UN presence in Tajikistan to provide greater political
and economic advice and humanitarian assistance. Speaking to
Western journalists in Tashkent, Uzbek President Islam Karimov
said that "Islamic extremists" from North Africa are supporting
anti-government forces in Tajikistan, Reuters reported. Following
talks in Dushanbe on 17 November with Tajik parliament chairman
Imomali Rakhmonov, Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev told
reporters that Russia "is prepared to help" Tajikistan achieve
stability, ITAR-TASS reported. -Liz Fuller

of the two new Central Asian currencies, the Kazakh tenge and
the Uzbek som coupon, is not proceeding without problems. On
15-November, the day of the tenge's launch, it was very difficult
to find the currency on the streets of Almaty, Reuters reported.
Many shops were closed and panic buying was evident at those
that were open. On 16-November, the state still had not officially
set a tenge to dollar exchange rate, according to Interfax. An
RFE/RL correspondent in Tashkent reported more confusion in the
Uzbek capital on 15 November. No som coupons were available on
the streets and crowds were trying to exchange higher denomination
new ruble notes. Old ruble notes and lower denomination 1993
notes are to circulate along with the som coupon until at least
the end of this year. -Erik Whitlock


KOZYREV IN UZBEKISTAN. Kozyrev arrived in Uzbekistan on 15 November
as part of a tour to Central Asia. In Tashkent on 16-November,
Kozyrev met with Uzbek President Islam Karimov and announced
that Russian President Boris Yeltsin had ordered the development
of a "strategic partnership" between Russia and Uzbekistan. Kozyrev
also said that the two countries would try to coordinate their
efforts to settle the conflict in Tajikistan. A sore point in
the discussions was the issue of ethnic Russians and their status
as a minority in Uzbekistan. Karimov denied that their rights
were abused and that a mass exodus of Russians is taking place.
Kozyrev, on the other hand, complained that some 700 people daily
apply for citizenship and seek help at the Russian embassy in
Tashkent, Russian and Western agencies reported. -Suzanne Crow

President Franjo Tudjman, speaking on Croatian TV, stated that
Croatian forces may have to enter Bosnia in order to protect
the lives of Croat civilians living there. According to Tudjman,
Croats face a greater threat in the Muslim Bosnian government's
desire to build an Islamic state than in armed Bosnian Serb soldiers.
Meanwhile, on 17 November Reuters reports that Turkish foreign
minister Hikmet Cetin said, in a proposal forwarded to NATO Secretary
General Manfred Woerner, that the international community should
consider using armed force to protect relief convoys destined
for Muslim and Croat civilians, who the minister described as
victims of Serb aggression. Also on 17 November, Western news
agencies report that fighting has flared in several localities.
On 16 November the central Bosnian town of Gornji Vakuf became
the site of heavy fighting between Muslim and Croat forces, as
an estimated 4, 000 Croat troops were involved. Reports of heavy
fighting taking place in the town of Mostar have circulated,
and Sarajevo radio announced on 17 November that the central
Bosnian Muslim-controlled town of Olovo has asked the UN for
"safe haven" status. -Stan Markotich

on 17 November the UN Tribunal for War Crimes in the Former Yugoslavia
met for the first time, in the Hague. On the afternoon of 17
November, eleven tribunal judges were sworn in, and a key UN
attorney, Carl-August Fleischhauer, delivered inaugural remarks.
Fleischhauer observed that the tribunal's work could encounter
some obstructions, and noted that many groups in ex-Yugoslavia
have simply refused to offer their cooperation in bringing suspected
war criminals to trial. Meanwhile, on 18 November AFP, citing
Croatian media sources, reports that leaders of Croatian forces
in Bosnia, the HVO, have openly accused one of their own divisions
of committing atrocities (including massacres) against Muslim
civilians in the town of Stupni Do in late October. Such an allegation
by members of Croat forces is reportedly the first of its kind
since the Bosnian war began in April 1992. -Stan Markotich

show that the popularity of the country's top politicians has
sharply declined. Leading officials currently have the support
of less than 20% of those polled and only 15% have not lost their
confidence in parliament, according to the Public Opinion Research
Center of Ljubljana University. President Milan Kucan's popularity
has dropped as much as 30% is some polls. Prime Minister Janez
Drnovsek and his three party coalition government also lost significant
support. Analysts say the Drnovsek government is seen by many
as being responsible for various economic and arms trade scandals,
abuse of power and unsuccessful reform policies. Meanwhile, the
latest issue of the independent weekly Mladina published a list
of the salaries of top officials. -Milan Andrejevich

on 17 November that the coalition Democratic Opposition (DEPOS)
will take part in the 19 December parliamentary elections. The
five party coalition, which was founded in May 1992, is led by
the Serbian Renewal Movement headed by Vuk Draskovic. The Democratic
Party of Serbia (DSS), a founding member of DEPOS that had left
the coalition during the last summer in a dispute with Draskovic
over political strategies, also kicked off its campaign on 17-November.
DSS head Vojislav Kostunica said the DSS would most likely run
independently but is open to post-election coalition proposals
from all parties, with the exception of the ruling Socialist
Party of Serbia (SPS). Before the Serbian parliament was dissolved
on 20 October, the DSS had the second largest group of deputies
within DEPOS. -Milan Andrejevich

MEKSI IN SOFIA. Having arrived on a three-day visit to Bulgaria,
Albanian Prime Minister Alexander Meksi on 17 November renewed
warnings that the war in former Yugoslavia could spill over to
Kosovo and the Republic of Macedonia, and subsequently involve
the majority of Balkan states. Meksi told Bulgarian and Western
reporters that he suspects "ethnic cleansing" will be extended
from Bosnia to the Serbian province of Kosovo unless Serbian
aggression is checked by the world community. He suggested that
the stationing of United Nations peacekeeping troops in Kosovo
might help to stabilize the situation. Reportedly, the regional
implications of the ex-Yugoslav conflicts were also extensively
discussed during the meeting between Meksi and Bulgarian Prime
Minister Lyuben Berov. A key topic was the idea of setting up
a transport corridor between Albania and Bulgaria via Macedonia,
a replacement for the normal routes through former Yugoslavia.
In addition, both sides agreed to prepare a general trade accord,
agreements on double taxation, protection of investments, industrial
cooperation, the creation of a joint bank, and scientific and
cultural exchange. -Kjell Engelbrekt

of Branko Crnvenkovski won its third confidence vote on 16-November
according to AFP. The vote defeated a censure motion sponsored
by the nationalist Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization-Democratic
Party for Macedonian National Unity over the government's handling
of the investigation concerning the alleged plot by a group of
ethnic Albanians called the All Albanian Army to undermine the
state. Some 71-deputies supported the prime minister, 36 were
against, and 2 abstained. The parliament is made up of 120 seats.
-Duncan Perry

that the government is not backing out of election campaign promises,
Deputy Premier and Finance Minister Marek Borowski announced
details of wages and pensions hikes that are to be staggered
over 1994. Speaking after a cabinet meeting on 16 November, Borowski
said that the 1994 draft budget would make provision for pay
raises of 200,000 zloty ($10) in June and a further, as yet undetermined,
rise in December, amounting to 2% in real terms, for public sector
employees; and raises of 1.5% for production workers. Old-age
and disability pensions will be set at 91% of average monthly
wages, not rising to 93% (as promised during the election campaign)
until December 1994. Minimum pensions will be raised from 35
to 38 % of the national average wage. At the same time, taxes
will be increased: middle and high-income groups will be hardest
hit, with base rates raised from 30% to 33% and 40% to 45%. The
government, although committed to axing the excess wages tax,
will probably be forced to keep some form of wage controls, for
fear of an explosion of wage hikes in industry. Small entrepreneurs
will be subject to stricter tax controls, and tax relief will
be limited. The draft budget will assume a gross domestic product
of 4.5%, inflation of 20%, and a budgetary deficit of 4-5% of
the GDP. -Anna Sabbat-Swidlicka

POLAND: SIGHTS STILL SET ON NATO. At his first press conference
since taking office, Defense Minister Piotr Kolodziejczyk said
that Poland would not abandon its plans to join NATO but that
the pact should be transformed in such a way as to make it a
pillar of a European security system. A 17 November PAP report
quoted Kolodziejczyk as saying that NATO was too slow in adapting
to the new challenges and threats and that it still caused "allergic
reactions" in Moscow. The defense minister said that Russia's
defense doctrine was only "a cosmetically retouched" version
of its Soviet predecessor and subordinated to short-term political
expediency. He welcomed the Russian pledge to respect existing
borders and not to strike first, but expressed concern at its
approach to the belt of neighboring countries "as an area that
should come under its control." Jerzy Milewski, head of the National
Defense Bureau who is now also a deputy defense minister, in
charge of defense policy, said that changes would be made in
civil military structures in view of cutting down on some of
the bureaucracy. -Anna Sabbat-Swidlicka

met in Prague on 17 November with his Czech counterpart, Vaclav
Havel. CTK reports that the two presidents discussed security
concerns, the division of former Czechoslovakia's property, the
problems of a customs union between the two countries, and the
issue of dual citizenship for former citizens of Czechoslovakia.
Kovac was reported to have said that Hungary, Poland, the Czech
Republic, and Slovakia-the so-called Visegrad countries-should
coordinate their efforts in trying to integrate into Western
security structures. Havel was reported to have noted that the
Visegrad group still "has a meaning," but there is also "a danger
that the West might regard these countries as a community" and
not a group of friendly but separate states -Jiri Pehe

SLOVAK HEALTH MINISTER OUSTED. The Slovak parliament passed a
vote of no confidence against Health Minister Viliam Sobona on
17 November. TASR reports that the vote was 76 to 60 with 138
deputies of the 150 deputies present. This represents a political
defeat for Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar, who has resisted efforts
of the opposition to recall the minister. Sobona has been repeatedly
accused of incompetence by both the opposition and some members
of the Slovak National Party, the new coalition partner of Meciar's
Movement for a Democratic Slovakia. The number of votes cast
against Sobona suggests that some SNP and possibly also some
MDS deputies joined forces with the opposition in ousting the
minister. In another development, the parliament elected Ludovit
Cernak, chairman of the Slovak National Party, to the post parliament
deputy chairman. -Jiri Pehe

Chairman of the Democratic Community of Hungarians in Voivodina
(DCHV), Andras Agoston said at a Budapest press conference on
16 November that he expects the DCHV to get about 6-7 seats in
parliament during the upcoming 19 December Serbian elections,
MTI reports. Agoston said that the DCHV has no coalition partners,
because no Serbian political forces support the idea of Hungarian
autonomy advocated by his organization. Agoston also told reporters
that his group's election chances may be affected by the fact
that some 10% of the Hungarian population had been forced to
leave Voivodina as a result of the war. -Judith Pataki

Reuters on 17-November Nicolae Vacaroiu said that the government
had failed to curb inflation, adding that plans to privatize
communist-era industries and to close unprofitable state enterprises
were unsuccessful. He denied that reforms had stalled in Romania,
however, and blamed the opposition for making these "false claims."
Vacaroiu also said that his team had prepared, with the help
of experts from the International Monetary Fund, tough financial
and monetary measures aimed at speeding up the reforms. A high-ranking
Romanian delegation, including Minister of State Mircea Cosea,
Finance Minister Florin Georgescu, and National Bank Governor
Mugur Isarescu returned from Washington on 17 November, after
having negotiated the terms of a new standby loan agreement with
the IMF. Cosea said that the accord should be concluded in December.
-Dan Ionescu

Association on 16 November protested a bill that would increase
penalties for libel by journalists. In a statement broadcast
by Radio Bucharest, the largest journalists' organization in
Romania depicted the law as an attempt to intimidate the press,
while the mass circulation daily Evenimentul zilei described
the law as "one of the most reactionary documents" since the
1989 anti-communist revolution. The bill, which contains amendments
to the Penal Code, provides terms of up to two years in jail
for journalists who print "insults and calumnies." The country's
main opposition alliance, the Democratic Convention of Romania,
also said that the law was discriminating against newspaper editors.
Libel by a non-journalist would carry a maximum penalty of one
year's imprisonment. The bill was approved last week by the Senate
and has to be passed by the Chamber of Deputies, the parliament's
lower house. -Dan Ionescu

EXILED ROMANIAN KING DENIED VISA. A spokesman for the Romanian
Foreign Ministry said on 17-November that former King Michael
was denied a visa to enter Romania for its national day ceremonies
on 1-December. The spokesman, Mircea Geoana, told reporters that
the visa was being rejected because Michael applied at the Romanian
embassy in Bern with a Greek diplomatic passport bearing the
name "His Majesty King Michael of Romania." Geoana said that
this contradicted Michael's statement that he wanted to participate
in the ceremonies as a simple citizen who is not challenging
Romania's constitutional order. Michael, who lives in Swiss exile,
had been allowed to visit Romania in 1992 with a Danish passport
bearing the same title. -Dan Ionescu

Kolesnikov, Russia's Chief of General Staff, signed during his
visit to Bulgaria an agreement on military cooperation in 1994.
Gen. Lyuben Petrov, Kolesnikov's counterpart, told Bulgarian
radio on 16-November that the agreement envisages regular exchange
between military experts and defense ministry officials in the
fields of military planning, restructuring of armed forces and
military tactics. An RFE/RL correspondent in Moscow on 17 November
quoted a Russian defense ministry official as saying that Russia
is also proposing a barter deal in which Bulgaria would receive
T-72 tanks and spare parts for military aircraft and helicopters
in exchange for medicine, cigarettes and food. -Kjell Engelbrekt

Latvia and Russia initialed seven interstate pacts, BNS reports.
They include a mutual frontier regime, social protection for
Russian servicemen and the operation of Russian industrial enterprises
in Latvia, as well as outlining transportation contacts. Latvian
Foreign Minister Georgs Andrejevs said that Russia's offer to
withdraw its troops by September 1994 if allowed to retain its
radar station at Skrunda for six more years "deserved special
attention." He noted that while Latvia might consider the replacement
of the faculty's military personnel by civilians, health concerns
for people living within a 30 kilometer radius of the radar had
to be settled. -Saulius Girnius

three days of Estonian-Russian negotiations in Lohusalu ended
with the initialing of agreements on the protection of cultural
treasures and on industrial standards, BNS reports. Lacking authority,
the Estonian delegation declined to discuss a Russian offer to
withdraw its troops from Estonia by 31-August. Estonian delegation
head Juri Luik said that the government would discuss the offer
on 18 November. He also noted that Russia is requesting Estonia
to pay $23-million for constructing housing for departing servicemen
and social guarantees for military retirees. -Saulius Girnius

Supreme Council Chairman, Ivan Plyushch, had to suspend the debate
on a new electoral law after deputies engaged in a "shoving match,"
Reuters reported. The new law provides for single-member constituencies
with the candidate gaining the most votes in each constituency
being elected. It is favored by the former communists and their
socialist allies who are better organized and have larger memberships
than the democratic opposition. One democratic deputy, Anatolii
Tkachuk, said that law would kill the multi-party system. The
disturbance in parliament erupted when democratic deputies began
accusing the communists and their allies of running from seat
to seat in the 450 member parliament to vote on behalf of absent
deputies. Deputies then spilled out on to the floor and began
shoving each other forcing Plyushch to suspend the session. The
delay in voting on the electoral bill means the debate on the
START treaty may again be delayed. -Ustina Markus

[As of 1200 CET]

Compiled by Wendy Slater and Jan B. de Weydenthal

assistance of the RFE/RL News and Current Affairs Division (NCA).
The report is available by electronic mail via LISTSERV (RFERL-L@UBVM.CC.BUFFALO.EDU),
on the Sovset' computer bulletin board, by fax, and by postal
mail. For inquiries about specific news items, subscriptions,
or additional copies, please contact: in North America: Mr. Brian
Reed, RFE/RL, Inc., 1201 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC-20036
Telephone: (202) 457-6912 or -6907; Fax: (202) 457-6992 or 828-8783;
Internet: RIDC@RFERL.ORG or Elsewhere: Ms. Helga Hofer, Publications
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(+49 89) 2102-2648, Internet: PD@RFERL.ORG 1993, RFE/RL, Inc.
All rights reserved.

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