No. 136, 20 July 1993

RUSSIA



MEANS OF ADOPTING RUSSIA'S NEW CONSTITUTION. Presidential spokesman
Vyacheslav Kostikov said in an interview with the German daily
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on 19 June that if the Congress
of People's Deputies refuses to ratify the new draft of the Russian
Constitution, President Boris Yeltsin is ready to brand it as
"incapable of taking decisions" and convene a Constitutional
Convention. Such a move would be justified, Kostikov said, because
plans have been laid for up to 350 pro-reform deputies to boycott
the Congress. A Constitutional Convention would comprise the
members of the recent constitutional assembly and an additional
760 delegates who, presumably, would be pro-Yeltsin appointees.
Meanwhile, the Committee of Democratic Organizations has called
for the promulgation of the constitution no later than the autumn,
and about 50 diverse political parties have suggested that Yeltsin
issue a decree with the force of a constitutional law, according
to Russian radio reports on 15 June. -Wendy Slater

DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF RUSSIA SEEKS PRE-ELECTION PARTNERS. The Democratic
Party of Russia, which has recently left the centrist Civic Union
bloc, announced at a press conference in St. Petersburg on 16-June
that it is preparing to hold discussions with like-minded parties
on forming a pre-election bloc and nominating candidates for
the forthcoming elections, according to ITAR-TASS on the same
day. According to Viktor Talanov, a DPR leader, the DPR is prepared
to cooperate with those right-of-center parties and movements
which stand for "the support of democracy and market reforms,
and a new Russian statehood and constitutionality." So far, the
Republican Party of the Russian Federation, the Party of Economic
Freedom, and the All-Russia Union "Renewal" have begun consultations
with the DPR. -Wendy Slater

PARLIAMENT FOR HIGHER BUDGET EXPENDITURE. The chairman of the
Council of the Republics, Veniamin Sokolov, told a news conference
on 19 July that parliament has rejected the government's draft
budget for 1993, Reuters reported. The legislature was opposed
to the "anti-social" nature of the draft and has proposed much
higher expenditures (40 trillion rubles), higher income (21 trillion
rubles), thus leaving a much higher planned deficit (19-trillion
rubles). The figures appear to be expressed in June 1993 prices,
although this was not spelled out. The proposed deficit would
appear to be way above the share of GDP that has been agreed
upon with foreign creditors. The government will presumably decline
to accept parliament's proposed budget, but it is not clear what
happens next. -Keith Bush

NATURAL GAS PRICES RAISED AND INDEXED. A resolution of the Council
of Ministers establishing new regulations on the price of natural
gas will go into effect on 20 July, according to ITAR-TASS and
Kommersant-Daily. The resolution raises the official wholesale
price initially from 3,600 to 7,900 rubles per 1,000 cubic meters
of natural gas and sets the excise tax at 15%. The price for
industrial consumers will then rise each month in line with an
industrial output price index. The price for residential customers
is to rise from 600 to 2,000 rubles per 1,000 cubic meters (VAT
not included), but will not be formally indexed. The resolution
was signed by Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin on 13-July.
Domestic prices for Russian natural gas even after these increases
remain at about a tenth of world price levels at the current
exchange rate. -Erik Whitlock

RADIATION LEAK. A small amount of Radioactive plutonium leaked
into the atmosphere from a factory in Chelyabinsk-65 on 17 July,
according to Reuters on 19-July. Twenty liters of plutonium-238
was released when a storage tank ruptured, but nobody was harmed,
and the amount of plutonium released is reported to be insignificant.
The accident follows another explosion at the Tomsk-7 plutonium
processing plant earlier this year, and adds to fears about the
safety of Russia's nuclear industry. The Washington Post on 20
July also reports that workers at the Krasnoyarsk-26 plutonium
complex have declared the plant at risk of a nuclear accident,
since skilled technicians have quit their jobs, and the key chemicals
necessary to ensure safety are unavailable. The environmental
group Greenpeace has criticized the Russian government for delay
in reporting the Chelyabinsk-65 accident until two days after
the event. -Sheila Marnie

MINERS' STRIKE. Miners in Vorkuta (Republic of Komi) staged a
one hour warning strike on 19 July in protest at the announcement
of the first redundancies at the mines, according to ITAR-TASS
on the same day. The miners are demanding that the government
stop redundancies until a special program on closures has been
adopted and social guarantees offered to the dismissed workers.
Seven mines in Vorkuta are threatened with closure, three of
which this year. At one mine 305 miners have already been given
notice, and a total of more than 3,000 miners are threatened
with dismissal. -Sheila Marnie

GRACHEV ON MILITARY DOCTRINE. Perhaps the most authoritative
article to date on the new Russian military doctrine and strategy
has been published in Voyennaia mysl, no. 6, by Pavel Grachev.
Grachev does not specify likely enemies, but calls for the ability
to fight both local and global conventional conflicts. While
noting that a pre-meditated global war or nuclear war is unlikely,
he warns that "the most probable [scenario], is [Russia's] gradual
entanglement in conflicts unleashed in neighboring countries
and regions. With the complex interconnections and interdependent
interests of various states and peoples every armed conflict
could escalate into a large-scale war." Absent from his article
is any discussion of defense of Russian minorities in the "near
abroad," but given Grachev's vagueness on the issue of threats
this may not mean that their "defense" has been abandoned. -John
Lepingwell

GOODBYE TO "REASONABLE SUFFICIENCY? GRACHEV EMPHASIZES THE CREATION
OF A NEW MILITARY STRATEGY INCORPORATING BOTH OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE
OPERATIONS. He notes that in the event of war the military might
have to fight without prepared defenses or full mobilization,
and hence may have to utilize a maneuver defense. Nowhere does
he refer to the concepts of "defensive sufficiency" or "reasonable
sufficiency" which were so prevalent (if ill-defined) during
the Gorbachev period. In terms of military technology, Grachev
repeats previous calls for a technological upgrading of the Russian
military, and explicitly points to the Gulf War as an example
of the benefits gained by extensive use of high technology. -John
Lepingwell


TRANSCAUCASIA AND CENTRAL ASIA



SHEVARDNADZE OFFERS PLAN TO REGULATE ABKHAZ CONFLICT. Meeting
with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Boris Pastukhov in Sukhumi
on 18-July, Georgian Parliament Chairman Eduard Shevardnadze
proposed a plan for stage-by-stage demilitarization of the conflict,
Reuters reported. Steps would include a ceasefire, creation of
an observer system, return of refugees, troop withdrawals, and
disarmament. Speaking on Georgian Radio on 19 July, Shevardnadze
said that Russian politicians in both government and parliament
had begun to realize that Russia needs a stable Georgia, and
that good-neighborly relations would benefit both states, ITAR-TASS
reported. -Catherine Dale

TAJIK UPDATE. Tajik and/or Russian warplanes bombed a strategic
rebel stronghold east of Dushanbe on 19 July, ITAR-TASS and Western
agencies reported. The rebels had attacked Tajik government positions
on 18 July, killing 8 soldiers, and Tajikistan's defense minister
Aleksandr Shishlyannikov claimed that 100-rebels were killed
in the counteroffensive. The government's goal is to reopen the
strategic road from Dushanbe to Khorog, the capital of the Gorno-Badakhshon
Autonomous Oblast, which the rebels have been blocking. ITAR-TASS
on 19 July reported that Kyrgyzstan is to send a "task force"
to help secure the Tajik-Afghan border. Previous Kyrgyz government
efforts to send peacekeepers were blocked by the Kyrgyz parliament.
Russian Security Minister Viktor Barannikov arrived in Dushanbe
on 19 July and is discussing comprehensive measures to stabilize
the situation with Tajik government officials and Russian military
commanders in the area. -Keith Martin

AKAEV LOSES IMPORTANT RUSSIAN SUPPORTER. Kyrgyzstan's former
Vice President and First Vice Premier German Kuznetsov has emigrated
to Russia, ITAR-TASS reported on 16-July, telling Kyrgyzstan's
most important Russian-language daily that the government no
longer listened to him and that important decisions were being
taken behind his back. Kuznetsov was one of the earliest and
staunchest supporters of President Akaev's reform program from
Kyrgyzstan's Russian community. His departure is likely to give
impetus to the emigration of Russians from Kyrgyzstan as well
as being a personal blow to Akaev. On 17 July the same source
reported that a gathering of democratic groups associated with
the Erkin Kyrgyzstan Party had called for the resignation of
Akaev, the government and legislature because they have been
unable to find a way out of the country's economic decline. -Bess
Brown

CENTRAL ASIAN OPPOSITION FIGURES AWARDED HUMAN RIGHTS GRANTS.
RFE/RL has learned that writers Shirali Nurmuradov and Mukhametmurad
Salamatov of Turkmenistan, Babur Shokirov of Uzbekistan, journalist
Karishal Asanov of Kazakhstan and Uzbek human rights activist
Abdumannob Pulatov have been awarded grants for persecuted writers
by the Fund for Free Expression, a division of Human Rights Watch.
The grants are funded by a bequest from the estates of Lillian
Hellman and Dashiel Hammett. Nurmuradov, a poet, is co-chairman
of the Turkmen Popular Front movement Agzybirlik. Salamatov is
founder and editor of the banned Turkmen human rights journal
Dayanch. Pulatov, a journalist, is chairman of the Human Rights
Society of Uzbekistan. Shokirov and Asanov are also journalists.
All of these men have opposed the governments of their respective
countries both in print and in action and have faced persecution
for their activities. They have all been arrested in the past
on various charges and Salamatov has been assaulted by men who
he claims were KGB agents. -Yalcin Tokgozoglu

CIS

SEVASTOPOL UPDATE. According to an RFE/RL correspondent in New
York, Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Boris Tarasyuk is pressing
for an open session of the UN Security Council to consider the
Russian parliament's declaration on Sevastopol. The Russian representative
to the Security Council is not opposing the proposal, as the
Russian government apparently wishes to go on record as repudiating
the parliament's resolution. On 19 July the Russian parliament
voted to include 78 billion rubles in the defense budget to finance
the Black Sea Fleet. While that amendment, proposed by Sergei
Baburin, was passed, another amendment that would have included
1 billion rubles for the financing of Sevastopol itself was defeated,
ITAR-TASS reported on 19 July. Finally, in an interview with
Uriadovy kurier on 17 July, Rear Admiral I. Pivenko noted that
there are some 60,000 Ukrainian conscripts serving in the Black
Sea Fleet, most of them under Russian officers. This confirms
recent reports that up to 80% of the fleet's enlisted personnel
are Ukrainian, rather than the 50% called for in Ukrainian-Russian
agreements. -John Lepingwell


CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE



EC TO PRESSURE CROATIA WITH SANCTIONS THREAT. International media
reported on 19 July that the Community's foreign ministers agreed
to warn Croatia that it could face limited economic sanctions
if it does not move to make the Croats in Bosnia-Herzegovina
stop fighting the Muslims. German opposition prevented the session
from taking up immediate trade sanctions, but the Belgian foreign
minister is slated to take a "strong message" to Zagreb on 20
July. For months there has been talk in Croatian public life
and the media of "silent sanctions" allegedly already imposed
on Croatia by the EC. The view has also been expressed that Croatia
has been abandoned by most of its "natural allies" in Roman Catholic
Central Europe, and particular bitterness has been expressed
toward German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel. Few, if any, domestic
commentators are willing to suggest that Croatia bears responsibility
for its seeming isolation. -Patrick Moore

MORE BATTLES IN BOSNIA. Fighting continued on 19-July on Mount
Igman outside Sarajevo. Government forces called it the heaviest
Serb assault in the area since fighting began last year. A UN
official said that if the government forces lose the mountain,
as many as 32,000 people might flee across the airport runway,
where scores of civilians have been shot dead by snipers. According
to Reuters, another UN official said, "We would like to prevent
this happening at all costs because an exodus across the runway
would be a turkey shoot, a tragedy." Meanwhile, the Bosnian presidency
has agreed in principle to attend peace talks, but cited as preconditions
an end to Serb offensives, a solid cease-fire, and the restoration
of water, power, and gas in Sarajevo. Elsewhere, international
media reported heavy attacks by Bosnian Croatian forces against
Muslims in Vitez and Mostar, while Gorazde was under Serbian
shelling. International aid officials wrestled with the problem
of 230 abandoned mental patients, half of them children, in Fojnica.
Bosnian troops seized Fojnica from Croat forces last week and
the patients were left behind. -Fabian Schmidt

ALBANIANS, SERBS MEET IN OHRID. On 9-11 July, intellectuals from
Kosovo, Albania, and Serbia met in Ohrid to continue talks begun
in April in Budapest. At the meetings, organized by the Soros
Foundation in Belgrade, Tirana, and Pristina, the participants
said that "people meet either before the fight-to prevent it,
or afterwards-to count the victims." They agreed to undertake
joint activities in Kosovo to calm tensions and to influence
public opinion against the lawlessness there. Meetings for medical
professionals from Albania, Kosovo, and Serbia are planned for
Pristina, where many Albanian doctors have lost their jobs. The
Albanian newspaper Aleanca carried the report on 13 July. -Fabian
Schmidt

REACTIONS TO REFERENDUMS IN ESTONIA. Commenting on the results
of the recent referendums on making the predominantly Russian
towns of Narva and Sillamae autonomous regions in Estonia, a
Russian foreign ministry official said that no matter how many
people took part, a dialogue remains necessary to resolve the
complaints of the Russian-speaking population in Estonia. Peteris
Vinkelis, First Secretary of the Latvian embassy in Moscow, said
that the referendums created a dangerous precedent for his country,
even if Latvia does not have such enclaves as Narva. He added
that an official dissociation from blunt statements by Russian
politicians on this issue would be welcomed, Baltic media reported
on 19 July. Latvians picketed the Russian embassy in Riga last
week to protest what they saw as Russian efforts to pressure
Estonia. In Tallinn, the Supreme Court is now discussing the
referendums and will issue a ruling soon. The official Estonian
view has been that the referendums were illegal. -Dzintra Bungs


RUSSIAN NATIONAL SALVATION FRONT LEADER IN LATVIA. Diena reported
on 17 July that extreme Russian nationalist and National Salvation
Front leader Ilya Konstantinov is visiting Latvia to assess the
situation of Russians there. He plans to meet in Riga with the
500-or so members of the Nash Sovremennik club, which was founded
about three years ago and has encouraged Russians to take a more
active part in Latvian elections. He told Diena that Russia's
National Salvation Front has good contacts in Latvia, as does
the Nash Sovremennik club. Along with the Defense of Human Rights
Committee, the club gathers in a building at 4 Tornu Street,
where pro-Soviet organizations continue to meet. -Dzintra Bungs


SLOVAK PARLIAMENT ELECTS SUPREME CONTROLLER AND NATIONAL BANK
GOVERNOR. On 19 July the Slovak parliament elected Marian Vanko
of the ruling Movement for a Democratic Slovakia as chairman
of the Supreme Supervisory Office, which oversees state offices
and institutions. Vanko received 79 of 140 votes, while vice-chairmen
Peter Sokol and Marian Vrabec of the Slovak National Party each
received 80-votes. After his election, Vanko pledged "impartiality
and objectivity," TASR reports. Chairman of the Party for the
Democratic Left Peter Weiss called the election "a loss of democracy"
since the MDS will remain unchecked. Weiss also criticized the
SNP for breaking its vows to join the opposition in electing
a non-MDS official as chairman. In the same session, Prime Minister
Vladimir Meciar's choice for National Bank Director, Vladimir
Masar, was approved, receiving 79 of 133 votes. Marian Tkac was
appointed vice-governor with 77 votes, although CTK reported
that the Christian Democratic Movement opposed his appointment.
-Sharon Fisher

POLISH GOVERNMENT SHAKEUP. Poland's acting agriculture minister,
Janusz Bylinski, resigned his post on 16 July. Prime Minister
Hanna Suchocka named Jacek Janiszewski, a member of the coalition's
Peasant Christian Alliance, to replace him on 19 July. Bylinski
made his announcement a few hours after Suchocka had fired Wlodzimierz
Rembisz as head of the Agricultural Market Agency, the body that
makes interventionary purchases to keep farm prices stable. A
government audit charged that Rembisz made use of foreign autos
loaned by grain importers, apparently in return for preferential
treatment. Bylinski told reporters on 19 July that policy differences
with Suchocka's agricultural adviser sparked his resignation,
but there was speculation that the move was designed to improve
his chances in the elections. Bylinski is a candidate for the
Peasant Alliance (PL), the party that defected from the coalition
in May. The ministerial post has been vacant since PL chief Gabriel
Janowski resigned in protest on 8 April. -Louisa Vinton

FRICTION BETWEEN WALESA AND SUCHOCKA? THE GOVERNMENT SHAKEUP
PROMPTED A QUICK REACTION FROM PRESIDENT LECH WALESA, WHO REQUESTED
IN A LETTER TO THE PRIME MINISTER CARRIED BY PAP ON 19 JULY THAT
SUCHOCKA PRESERVE "CONTINUITY IN THE FUNCTIONING OF ALL STATE
OFFICES." He requested that she consult all further personnel
changes with him "because otherwise the public could perceive
them as part of a preelection political game." Suchocka responded
on the same day that she is "of a single mind" with the president
on this issue. Without making an explicit protest, her press
secretary indicated that Walesa had been consulted on the new
appointment before he released his letter for publication. -Louisa
Vinton

IMF PRAISES POLAND'S PROGRESS. Ending a two-week visit to Warsaw
on 17 July, a delegation from the International Monetary Fund
had high praise for Poland's economic performance in the first
half of 1993. A final assessment of Poland's compliance with
the standby arrangement reached in November 1992 will have to
wait until August, however, apparently to allow the IMF time
to judge the seriousness of Poland's trade deficit. Exports are
running as planned, but imports are far higher than expected.
The introduction of the VAT may have spurred a temporary import
boom. The trade deficit at the end of June was $796-million,
PAP reported on 16 July. IMF representatives stressed that the
overall picture is positive: Polish production is rising faster
than predicted, while the mid-year budget deficit, at 31 trillion
zloty ($1.8 billion), is only 38% of the planned total for the
entire year. IMF approval will clear the way for $700 million
in new loans for Poland. -Louisa Vinton

POLISH INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP 9.4%. Reports from the state
statistical office (GUS) on the first six months of 1993 show
that Poland's economy continues to grow. Industrial production
was 9.4% higher than in the first half of 1992, PAP reported
on 16-July. Production for June was 12.8% higher than in June
1992. Labor productivity and firm profitability continued their
slow but steady rise. Inflation slowed, with prices 34.3% higher
than in June 1992. On the down side, agriculture remained depressed,
apartment construction dropped to roughly one-half the level
of last year, and unemployment continued to rise, as virtually
all new school graduates registered for benefits in June. Total
registered unemployment is now 14.6% of the work force, or 2,701,793
people. The unemployment rate varies sharply by region, ranging
from 7.3% in Warsaw to 26.6% in Koszalin. Labor ministry officials
predicted on 19 July that unemployment will peak at 3,200,000
at the end of 1994 and then fall gradually to 2,300,000 by 2005.
-Louisa Vinton

LITHUANIA'S PRODUCTION CONTINUES TO DROP. Despite lower inflation,
production in Lithuania continued to decline in June, BNS reported
on 19 July. Compared to May, production was lower in 35 of 47-principal
groups. The biggest drops were in mineral fertilizers (91%),
canned meat (88%), tape recorders (71%), paper (28%), and footwear
(26%). Lithuania stopped producing synthetic ammonia, superphosphates,
window glass, sugar, toilet paper, combined fodder and other
goods. Production was up in only 11-principal groups: canned
milk (97%), cheese (44%), butter (30%), flour (17%), laundry
detergents (16%), and cement (10%). Lithuania's industries worked
at only 52% capacity in June. -Saulius Girnius

NEW EC RESTRICTIONS ON POLISH IMPORTS. The European Community's
decision on 19 July to impose mandatory minimum prices on imported
Polish cherries drew sharp protests from the Polish government.
Polish TV reports that the minimum prices imposed by the EC exceed
current market prices in Europe, and will thus effectively shut
out Polish exporters. Similar restrictions were imposed earlier
on Hungarian cherries. Poland has protested the decision as unlawful.
Foreign Economic Cooperation Minister Andrzej Arendarski said
that the EC policy reflects a "consistent but absurd logic" of
imposing minor restrictions to protect EC markets from East European
competition. He worried that "now it's cherries; in two weeks
it will be plums, apples, and pears." Poland's cherry exports
earned almost $3.5 million in 1992. -Louisa Vinton

JORDAN HALTS IMPORT OF BULGARIAN MEAT. Jordan has prohibited
the import of all Bulgarian meat products, Western agencies reported
on 19 July. Referring to cases of hoof-and-mouth disease in Bulgaria
during May, officials in Amman said the ban was motivated by
the need to protect Jordanian livestock. On the same grounds
the European Community introduced an import ban in early June,
but lifted it after Sofia declared that the source of contamination
had been eliminated. Bulgarian diplomats in Amman expressed surprise
at the untimely measure. In 1992 Bulgaria supplied Jordan with
7,000 metric tons of meat, roughly 30% of the country's total
red meat imports. -Kjell Engelbrekt

HUNGARIAN-ROMANIAN TRADE TALKS. Hungarian Minister of International
Relations Bela Kadar and Minister of State Misu Negritoiu, Chairman
of the Romanian government's council for economic coordination,
strategy, and reform, discussed bilateral trade in Budapest on
19 July, Radio Budapest reports. They agreed to set up a new
Hungarian trade office in Cluj and a joint bank in Oradea, and
to request the aid of the European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development for the establishment of a joint Hungarian-Romanian
trade development bank. Last year, Hungarian exports to Romania
rose by 15%, while Romania, which has a 26-million transferable
ruble debt vis-a-vis Hungary, doubled its exports to that country.
-Alfred Reisch

ROMANIA, MOLDOVA TO BOOST TIES. On 17 July Mircea Snegur, President
of the Republic of Moldova, paid a one-day visit to Bucharest
at the head of a high-ranking delegation, including Premier Andrei
Sangheli and Foreign Minister Nicolae Tiu. Snegur had two rounds
of talks with Romania's President Ion Iliescu, in the presence
of Romanian Premier Nicolae Vacaroiu and Foreign Minister Teodor
Melescanu. The two delegations discussed ways to boost bilateral
relations, and especially economic integration. They agreed on
plans to set up a joint bank and chamber of commerce, as well
as joint facilities in the energy and transport sectors. In a
statement broadcast by Radio Bucharest at the end of the meeting,
Snegur dismissed rumors in the media about a chill in Romanian-Moldovan
relations. Iliescu, on the other hand, stressed the "political
significance" of Snegur's visit. -Dan Ionescu

ROMANIA'S EX-COMMUNISTS CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT GOVERNMENT. Ilie
Verdet, chairman of the Socialist Labor Party, and his first
deputy Tudor Mohora told journalists on 19 July that their organization
would continue to offer conditional support to Nicolae Vacaroiu's
minority cabinet, dominated by the Party of Social Democracy
in Romania (the former Democratic National Salvation Front).
Verdet and Mohora acknowledged that the parliamentary alliance
with the ruling party had been strongly attacked at a recent
SLP assembly, with many speakers calling for withdrawing support
from the government to protest the decline in Romania's economic
and social life. Verdet suggested that further support for the
cabinet would depend on its future policies. He was also quoted
by an RFE/RL correspondent in Bucharest as saying that because
of government toadying to Western countries, Romanian is in fact
ruled by the IMF and the World Bank. The SLP is the main successor
to the Romanian Communist Party, which disappeared from the political
scene in December 1989, after Nicolae Ceausescu's overthrow.
-Dan Ionescu

ESTONIAN NATIONAL INDEPENDENCE PARTY CONGRESS. On 17-18 July,
the Estonian National Independence Party held its 6th Congress,
BNS reported on 19 July. After party chairman and Interior Minister
Lagle Parek tendered her resignation, the congress elected Ants
Erm, the party's faction leader in the parliament, as its new
chairman. The congress had been called to resolve internal disputes
that had weakened the party's standing. -Saulius Girnius

POLAND REPORTS DROP IN ILLEGAL MIGRATION. Polish border guards
detained 11,441 people (including 5,487 Romanians) attempting
to cross the border illegally in the first half of 1993. Of these,
10,038 were detained during attempts to cross into Germany; only
some 900-were caught trying to enter Poland. The total for the
same period in 1992 was 15,624, PAP reported on 17 July. Refugee
office chief Tomasz Kozlowski told Der Spiegel on 19 July that
illegal attempts to cross the Polish border had declined, both
because of the deterrent effect of the new German asylum law
and better controls on the "green border." During the first two
weeks after the new asylum law took effect, Germany returned
only 136 would-be asylum seekers to Poland, Kozlowski noted.
Poland itself has not recorded an increase in requests for asylum
but Kozlowski warned that Poland's attractiveness would grow
as refugees' paths to Western Europe were cut off. -Louisa Vinton


NEW LATVIAN EMIGRATION DATA. Diena reported on 17 July that 982
adults emigrated from Latvia to countries other than the former
Soviet republics during the first half of 1993; the comparable
figure for 1992 was 1012. In the first half of 1993, 404 people
left for Israel, while 578 emigrated to the US, Germany, Finland,
Sweden, and Poland. Most emigrants are Jews; the second-largest
group are Russians. Only 22 are ethnic Latvians, according to
Internal Affairs Ministry data. -Dzintra Bungs

HEALTH GAP BETWEEN EASTERN AND WESTERN EUROPE. Health conditions
in Eastern Europe are far behind those in Western Europe, according
to the World Bank's "Report on Global Health," published in July.
In Eastern Europe, people face "a variety of serious environmental
health threats, of which the greatest are particulates and gases
in air, lead in air and soil and nitrates and metals in water."
Mortality rates for middle-age males are roughly double those
in Western Europe. Air pollution is cited as most damaging to
health, especially in the "black triangle" of northern Bohemia
and Moravia, Silesia, and Saxony. In the black triangle areas
of the Czech Republic, "air pollution causes up to 3% of total
mortality and is responsible for roughly 9% in the gap in mortality
rates with Western Europe. -Milada Vachudova

[As of 1200 CET] Compiled by Sheila Marnie and Louisa Vinton





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