No. 222, 22 November 1992

SUCCESSOR STATES TO THE USSR

NEW WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT REACHED BY RUSSIA AND CHECHNYA. In the
evening of 16 November Russia and Chechnya reached a new agreement
on the withdrawal of their forces from the disputed Chechen-Ingush
border, ITAR-TASS reported. The previous agreement had been suspended
after a shooting incident involving the Chechen President Dzhokhar
Dudaev in which three Russian soldiers were wounded. Talks on
defining the frontier were also suspended. Dudaev's actions were
condemned by the Chechen parliament and by Russian deputy premier
Sergei Shakhrai, who has been sent to oversee the state of emergency
in North Ossetia and Ingushetia. The withdrawal is to start simultaneously
on 17-November. (Ann Sheehy)

NAZARBAEV, SHEVARDNADZE ON CIS. Kazakhstan President Nursultan
Nazarbaev said that the CIS summit on 4 December must be decisive,
Interfax reported on 16 November. Speaking in Alma-Ata, Nazarbaev
said "we must finally decide whether we would work together in
deeds, not words," or part without any grudge over going it alone.
Georgian parliament Chairman Eduard Shevardnadze, reiterating
in a radio address on 16 November reported by Interfax that Georgia
had no interest in joining the CIS, said that the very existence
of the CIS was souring relations between the former Soviet republics.
He said Russia and Ukraine would have found a rapport with each
other but for the CIS. Belarus Prime Minister Vyacheslav Kebich
said the same day that the summit might have to be delayed because
Yeltsin would be tied up with the Russian Congress of People's
Deputies which is due to convene on 1 December, Interfax reported.
(Ann Sheehy)

SHAPOSHNIKOV COMMANDS STRATEGIC FORCES. In an interview published
in Izvestiya on 17 November, Marshal Evgenii Shaposhnikov, the
commander-in-chief of the CIS Joint Armed Forces, repeated an
earlier report that he had been given command of the strategic
nuclear forces (he replaced the former commander of the CIS strategic
deterrence forces, General Yurii Maksimov, who was removed in
mid-October). Shaposhnikov sounded uneasy about this responsibility,
saying that in his view, the strategic forces command must be
in Russia. He considered it "illogical" that the Russian defense
minister was not in the command chain of the strategic forces.
Shaposhnikov made no mention of Colonel General Igor Sergeev,
named commander in chief of the Russian Strategic Forces on 22
August of this year. (Doug Clarke)

ON CIS MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS. In the same interview, Shaposhnikov
suggested that those CIS states that have signed the CIS Collective
Security Treaty ((Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kirghizia,
and Tajikistan) were currently participating in the drafting
of CIS military doctrine. He said that the doctrine would have
a defensive character that gave priority to war prevention, and
that its authors recognized that factors within the CIS-including
local conflicts, territorial disputes between newly sovereign
states, the uncertain status of Russian forces outside of Russia,
and unconstitutional troop formations-now constituted the main
military threat. Shaposhnikov envisioned the creation of CIS
peacekeeping forces, which would include units specially allocated
by each member state. These units would apparently be subordinated
to their national military commands and, in times of need, would
also be operationally subordinated to the CIS joint command.
Shaposhnikov recommended the retention of joint air forces and
air defense forces, and said that the CIS forces should be on
par with the best militaries in the world. (Stephen Foye)

KRAVCHUK SAYS WEST IGNORING UKRAINE'S INTEREST. Ukrainian President
Leonid Kravchuk warned the visiting NATO Supreme Allied Commander
that his country's parliament could vote against ratifying the
START strategic arms treaty if NATO countries did not provide
Ukraine with military and economic assistance. Reuters quoted
him as telling US General John Shalikashvili that the situation
was "completely incomprehensible. Poland and Hungary get support
and Ukraine goes unnoticed." He added that the two superpowers,
Russia and the United States could not guarantee global security.
"We must find a formula to guarantee the security of the former
states of the Soviet Union, Europe and the world at large," he
said; "not just [of] the two superpowers."(Doug Clarke)

YELTSIN MOVES TO CONTROL CENTRAL BANK. President Yeltsin issued
a decree on 16-November making the chairman of the Central Bank
a member of the Russian government, ITAR-TASS and Interfax reported.
Under the current chairmanship of Viktor Gerashchenko, Central
Bank policies have often conflicted with those of the government.
Yeltsin and his team have had little legal power to overcome
the conflict as current Russian law states that the bank is responsible
to parliament, not the government. The Yeltsin decree is apparently
a backhand move to gain more control of central bank policy and/or
remove Gerashchenko himself. It remains unclear yet whether the
decree contradicts or successfully finds a hole in existing Russian
law. (Erik Whitlock)

YELTSIN AND RUTSKOI TALK TOUGH ON RUBLE ZONE. At the government
meeting on 16 November President Yeltsin proposed that states
of the former Soviet Union leaving the ruble zone should pay
hard currency and world prices for Russian energy products, "Vesti"
reported. Although new payment terms are already being introduced
in the Baltic states, former Soviet republics generally pay in
rubles at artificially low prices. Russian Vice-President Aleksandr
Rutskoi was also urging a more aggressive economic policy towards
CIS states on the same day. On a visit to Orenburg, Rutskoi announced
that Russia should introduce its own new currency to prevent
the flood of rubles from republics leaving the zone, according
to Interfax. "We must put an end to jokes with the ruble and
we shall see who depends on whom," he said. (Erik Whitlock)

GAIDAR THREATENS RESIGNATION. Acting Prime Minister Egor Gaidar
indicated at a meeting with heads of local administrations on
16 November that he will resign if the Congress, which starts
on 1-December, reduces the powers of the president and adopts
amendments to the Constitution which would subordinate the executive
branch entirely to the parliament, ITAR-TASS reported. Gaidar
said that he thinks President Yeltsin will not sign the law,
recently adopted by the parliament, that would give the legislature
overall control over the government's day to day work. Gaidar
stated that Yeltsin was preparing a decree delegating more of
the former federative rights to the local authorities. (Alexander
Rahr)

SHUMEIKO ATTACKS PARLIAMENT. First Vice Prime Minister Vladimir
Shumeiko told ITAR-TASS on 14 November that no personnel changes
should be made in the composition of the government. He stated
that the reformist government would have to leave the stage "when
the situation stabilizes, but not now." He said that if the Congress
decides to alter the Constitution in order to deprive the president
of the power to choose his ministers, "a tough battle" may be
expected. He noted that the Law on the Government, adopted recently
by parliament, deprives the government of all its powers, and
said that he had recommended to the president that he take that
issue to the Constitutional Court to prove that the law is unconstitutional.
(Alexander Rahr)

SHAKHRAI BECOMES MEMBER OF SECURITY COUNCIL. The newly appointed
Vice Prime Minister Sergei Shakhrai has become a full member
of the Security Council, ITAR-TASS reported on 13 November. The
Security Council counted five members: President Boris Yeltsin,
Vice President Aleksandr Rutskoi, Acting Prime Minister Egor
Gaidar, First Deputy parliamentary speaker Sergei Filatov and
Secretary of the Security Council, Yurii Skokov. Shakhrai had
not so long ago criticized Yeltsin for building up the power
of the Security Council, and had warned that hardliners could
use it to grasp power. With the addition of Shakhrai, representatives
of the reformist camp have gained an absolute majority in the
Security Council. (Alexander Rahr)

KOZYREV DEFENSIVE AT DEFENSE AND FOREIGN POLICY COUNCIL. Speaking
at the Council for Defense and Foreign Policy on 16 November,
Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev denied that Russia's
foreign policy "gives priority to either [a] pro-American or
pro-European course." He faulted those in and out of the Russian
government who are pushing for "anti-Americanism," something
Kozyrev termed a "childish illness." He said the recently completed
draft foreign policy "concept" was a very broad and philosophical
document that would not be used to make practical foreign policy
decisions, Interfax reported on 15-November. (Suzanne Crow)

OPTIMISTIC 1993 RUSSIAN DRAFT BUDGET APPROVED. The Russian government
approved a draft budget for next year on 16 November which envisages
a deficit of 4.8% of GNP, Reuter reported. There are serious
doubts about whether the 1993 projection is realistic. (Finance
Minister Barchuk, for example, just before the draft budget was
approved, announced that the 1993 deficit would be 8% of GNP,
according to ITAR-TASS.) The government budget also assumes more
success fighting inflation next year. Calculations were made
based on a 70% annual inflation rate. This implies a monthly
rate of under 5% which compares to the current rate of over 20%.
(Erik Whitlock)

PRESIDENTIAL DECREES ON PRIVATIZATION. A new presidential decree
on privatization of state enterprises envisages that the state
will retain controlling share holdings in key branches of the
economy, including communications, energy, military hardware,
and alcoholic beverages for up to three years. Another decree
provides for the sale of state-owned facilities by auction for
privatization vouchers. Monday's government debate of the state
privatization program for 1993 suggests that most shares in state
property will be sold through such voucher auctions. More than
200 enterprises have already offered to sell shares in these
auctions. One of the first privatization voucher auctions is
scheduled to be held in Vladimir on 15 December, where up to
40% of shares in the Eleks joint stock company is due to be sold,
Interfax and ITAR-TASS reported on 16 November. (Sheila Marnie)


GENERAL WARNS TO GO SLOW ON ARMY CUTS. Lt. General Viktor Samoilov,
Russian deputy chief of staff for personnel, told a private conference
in Washington on 16 November that personnel cuts in the Russian
military should be slowed down to avoid overwhelming the economy
with thousands of job-seekers, Reuters reported. Samoilov explained
that some 600,000 officers would be let go by the military by
1995 under the present plans. He recommended that these cuts
should be spread out until the year 2000. He warned of serious
resultant social consequences if the changes were made too quickly.
(Doug Clarke)

RUSSIAN MILITARY DRAFT DAY. President Yeltsin declared 15 November
to be All-Russian Draft Day, ITAR-TASS reported the same day.
According to a Russian General who deals with personnel matters
in the Defense Ministry, Lt. Gen. Konstantin Bogdanov, the day
was marked as part of an effort to raise the prestige of military
service. Bogdanov suggested that conscription into the new Russian
army was not progressing in a satisfactory manner. It was unclear
from the report if draft day is to be a yearly event. (Stephen
Foye)

THE CRIMEA: ANOTHER KIND OF REFERENDUM. Another referendum campaign
is underway in the Crimea, this time to force the dissolution
of the Crimean parliament, Radio Rossii reported on 15-November.
The organizers are "Rukh," the Ukrainian Republican Party, the
coalition "The Crimea with Ukraine," and various other local
groups with a pro-Ukrainian orientation. Previous supporters
of referendums supported one or another form of self-determination
for the peninsula. (Roman Solchanyk)

MOLDOVA ON UKRAINE'S CONCERN OVER RUSSIAN FORCES IN MOLDOVA.
Writing in Nezavisimaya Moldova of 14 November on Ukrainian President
Leonid Kravchuk's recent visit to Moldova, the Moldovan President's
adviser Vadim Malakhov noted Kiev's concern over the "Dniester
republic" possibly seceding from Moldova. That would enable Russia
to keep its 14th Army there indefinitely and to send in additional
forces. Ukraine views the "Dniester republic" as "a forward base
for Russian aggression" and has accordingly concluded that its
own interests require it to support Moldova's territorial integrity.
The thrust of Ukraine's policy in the Dniester area in the period
ahead will to work against Russia's influence there, Malaakhov
said, as cited by Moldovan media and by Ekho Moskvy. (Vladimir
Socor)

KHODZHALY INVESTIGATION ESTABLISHES RUSSIAN MILITARY PARTICIPATION.
The commission set up by the Azerbaijani National Council to
investigate the circumstances of the killing of 450-Azerbaijani
civilians in the Karabakh village of Khodzhaly in February has
delivered its findings in a two-hour televised report, according
to Izvestiya of 13-November. The commission established that
troops of the Russian 366th regiment that were then stationed
in Stepanakert participated in the action alongside Armenian
armed units from Karabakh, and laid the blame for the tragedy
on former President Mutalibov and ex-Prime Minister Hasan Hasanov.
(Liz Fuller)

SHEVARDNADZE: "TIME IS RUNNING OUT" FOR ABKHAZ SETTLEMENT. In
a letter to the UN Security Council made public on 16 November,
Georgian parliament Chairman Eduard Shevardnadze claims that
the conflict in Abkhazia is intensifying; he reproaches the UN
for failing to take "concrete steps" to halt the fighting and
calls upon the Security Council to reaffirm past resolutions
calling for a peaceful settlement. On 11 November, UN Secretary-General
Boutros-Ghali suggested that the UN Security Council should call
for unconditional high-level talks with the objective of achieving
a ceasefire and subsequent implementation of the 3 September
agreement. (Liz Fuller)

"DNIESTER" LEADER, RUSSIAN MILITARY DIGGING IN. "Dniester republic
president" Igor Smirnov told Reuters on 15 November that his
would-be state continued to support the ideas of "the Great October
Revolution." Should hostilities resume, Russia's 14th Army and
other, unspecified forces, will "knock Moldova around a bit,"
Smirnov said. The 14th Army's commander, Lt. General Aleksandr
Lebed, launched a recruiting drive for his Army in the "Dniester
republic," the Moldovan news agency BASA reported from Tiraspol
on 15-November. Local conscripts will henceforth have the option
to serve in either the "Dniester" forces or Russia's 14th Army
for a starting wage of 3,000 to 4,000 rubles per month, Lebed
and the "Dniester republic"'s military commissar told a ceremonial
gathering of draftees held under the Russian and Soviet Moldovan
flags. An officer of Russia's "peacekeeping forces" in eastern
Moldova in turn told Reuters that he would "vote with both hands
for the recreation of the USSR." (Vladimir Socor)

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

UN VOTES TO TIGHTEN SANCTIONS AGAINST SERBIA-MONTENEGRO. International
media reported on 16 November that the Security Council voted
overwhelmingly to impose a blockade on the Adriatic and the Danube
against the rump Yugoslavia. Force could be used, but the resolution
was not specific about the circumstances under which that provision
would obtain. The UN is also to monitor transit shipments of
strategic goods across Serbia-Montenegro. Petroleum and other
supplies allegedly transiting Serbia to Bosnia or other destinations
have been reaching Serbian markets in quantity, effectively rendering
the sanctions imposed in May useless and enriching an often shadowy
class of merchants, smugglers, and speculators. The UN did not,
however, agree to pleas from Bosnia and many Islamic countries
to modify the weapons embargo on all former Yugoslav republics
to enable the Bosnian forces, which have ample manpower but are
poorly armed, to obtain weapons abroad. Hungarian and Albanian
delegates warned that the conflagration could spread unless the
Serb practice of "ethnic cleansing" is stopped, an RFE/RL correspondent
reports. (Patrick Moore)

MORE ON LEAKY BULGARIAN CONTROLS. Leading up to the Security
Council decision, several reports confirm Bulgaria's losing battle
to enforce sanctions. On 15 and 16 November Bulgarian officials
and CSCE monitors told Western agencies about the tireless efforts
of sanction-busters to circumvent the oil embargo by listing
destinations other than Serbia and Montenegro as final recipients
in transport documents. Bulgarian customs officials in Kalotina
northwest of Sofia estimate that since the embargo went into
force some 100,000 tons of fuel have been sent into Serbian-controlled
areas by rail alone. Officials in Petrich said tanker trucks
brought 1,000 tons of Greek oil across the Bulgarian-Macedonian
border daily, a large portion of which is likely to have reached
rump Yugoslavia. CSCE monitors supported the Bulgarian view that
the only way of making sure that sanctions work would be to follow
each transport to its final destination. (Kjell Engelbrekt)

BOSNIAN UPDATE. Western news agencies reported on 16 November
that Bosnian, Serbian, and Croatian military leaders have reached
an agreement with UN commander Gen. Philippe Morillon to open
a relief corridor connecting Sarajevo with Mostar. The Bosnian
capital is linked by road and rail to Mostar and beyond to the
Dalmatian highway and the Adriatic. For months the Bosnian authorities
have been wondering aloud why the Croats do not use their forces
to open the corridor, most of which the Croats already control.
Meanwhile, Reuters reports that international negotiators Cyrus
Vance and Lord Owen are losing patience with Bosnian Serb negotiators,
who insist on keeping much of the territory they have taken by
force. Spokesmen for Vance and Owen said that the international
community will never recognize gains obtained by violence. (Patrick
Moore)

CLINTON TO KEEP OPTIONS OPEN IN YUGOSLAV CRISIS. On 16 November
Reuters quoted president-elect Bill Clinton as saying that "there
are many options that we have for dealing with the problem in
Bosnia and the potential problem in Kosovo short of sending troops
in, but beyond where have been now." He added that he will keep
his options open at least until he takes office in January. During
the campaign Clinton criticized the Bush administration for not
being sufficiently assertive in using American influence in the
Balkans and for delaying in recognizing Croatia and Slovenia.
In recent days the Croatian media have been meticulously cataloging
and analyzing Clinton's campaign statements, and frequently predicting
that American air power may come to play a role in the crisis.
(Patrick Moore)

HAVEL WILL RUN FOR PRESIDENT OF NEW CZECH STATE. Former Czechoslovak
President Vaclav Havel announced on 16 November that he will
run in the Czech Republic's presidential elections. In a statement
from his press office obtained by RFE/RL, Havel said that the
new Czech state will face many difficulties and that he can not
simply bail out from all responsibility. The former president
also said that the Czech government's actions will determine
the lives of Czechs for many decades. It is not yet clear when
the elections will be held, nor whether the first Czech president
will be elected in a popular vote or by the Czech parliament.
(Jan Obrman)

AFTERMATH OF LDLP ELECTION TRIUMPH. The final results of the
runoff elections to the Lithuanian Seimas have not been officially
announced, because absentee ballots and votes from abroad could
change the preliminary results in seven districts where the vote
totals differ by fewer than 500 votes. If there are no changes,
the Lithuanian Democratic Party (LDLP, the former Lithuanian
Communist Party) won 35-seats, the Sajudis coalition-7, Lithuanian
Christian Democratic Party-5, Lithuanian Social Democratic Party-3,
the Union of Political Prisoners and Deportees-2, National Union
of Lithuania-2, and 1-each by the Independence Party, the Union
of Poles, the Center Movement, the Lithuanian Christian Democratic
Union, and a candidate who nominated himself, Lietuvos aidas
reports. LDLP clearly did better than they expected: they had
listed only 71 candidates in their multimandate list of which
they won 36-seats. With the 8 seats won in the first round, they
scored wins in 43 of the 71 single-mandate districts, only 5
candidates of which were not on the list. Thus, 3 seats to which
the LDLP would be entitled will be distributed to other parties.
(Saulius Girnius)

ROMANIA SIGNING ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT WITH EC. The association
agreement between Romania and the European Community is to be
signed on 17 November in Brussels, Radio Bucharest reports. An
RFE/RL correspondent in the Belgian capital reports that the
agreement will not come into effect until it is ratified by the
Romanian and European parliaments, but it contains a clause that
allows the trade provisions to become operative even before ratification.
The two sides agreed on trade concessions in fish products, processed
food, and iron and steel, giving Romania improved access to the
community's market. On the main subject of debate, agriculture,
the Romanians were given provisions similar to those granted
to Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary. (Michael Shafir).

TOP EC OFFICIALS IN SOFIA. On 16 November a delegation of the
European Community held talks with leading Bulgarian politicians,
including President Zhelyu Zhelev and Prime Minister Filip Dimitrov.
The officials-Pablo Benavides, director of the Foreign Affairs
Directorate of the EC Commission, Daniel Gugenbuel, head of the
Directorate's East European department, and foreign relations
adviser Michael Lee-told reporters they are in Sofia to discuss
issues related to the ongoing negotiations on Bulgaria's association
with the EC. The daily Standart quoted Gugenbuel as saying that
the EC is considering the possibility of offering Bulgaria an
agreement similar to that of the Visegrad Three-Poland, Hungary,
and Czechoslovakia. Benavides said at least two rounds of negotiations
are needed before an agreement can be signed. (Kjell Engelbrekt)


POLISH DEFENSE MINISTER VISITS BRITAIN. Polish Defense Minister
Janusz Onyszkiewicz arrived in Britain on 17 November for an
official visit. He is scheduled to meet with high-ranking British
defense officials and talk with representatives of the British
defense industry. According to a PAP report, Onyszkiewicz will
also visit several military bases. Onyszkiewicz's visit follows
a similar recent trip to the United States. (Jan de Weydenthal)


GERMAN-HUNGARIAN TALKS ON MILITARY DELIVERIES. Germany is willing
to supply Hungary with military spare parts from the arsenal
of the ex-GDR, German state secretary, Bernd Wilz, announced
on 16 November in Budapest, according to an MTI report. While
his government is very cautious about approving military deliveries,
Wilz said, Germany well remembers Hungary's good treatment of
East German refugees and will try to help to solve Hungary's
military problems now. Wilz's talks in Budapest also touched
on future military cooperation between the two countries. About
18 Hungarian officers will receive training in Germany next year.
(Karoly Okolicsanyi)

ABISALA CONCLUDES TRIP TO US. On 15 November Lithuanian Prime
Minister Aleksandras Abisala concluded his five-day visit to
the US, Radio Lithuania reports. On 13-November he spoke by telephone
with vice president-elect Al Gore, who told him that he and Bill
Clinton are "very concerned" about the continued presence of
Russian troops in the Baltic States, noting that the Senate has
already decided to link US financial aid to Russia with the troop
withdrawal. Assistant Secretary of Agriculture Ann Venoman pledged
that the US will send 200,000 tons of corn to Lithuania, which
will have only to pay for its transport, and offered Lithuania
a low-interest $5 million loan for purchasing grain. Abisala
also met with IMF Director-General Michel Camdessus and other
senior officials. On 14 and 15-November Abisala addressed the
Lithuanian communities in Philadelphia and Baltimore. (Saulius
Girnius)

CSCE HUMAN RIGHTS TEAM TO ESTONIA. An international team of experts
sponsored by the CSCE will visit Estonia early next month to
investigate Russian allegations of human rights violations there.
An RFE/RL correspondent in Warsaw reports that the visit was
announced on 16 November during a CSCE symposium. Ever since
last June, when Russia began linking alleged human rights abuses
in the Baltic to maintained troop presence, Estonia has repeatedly
asked the CSCE and other international organizations to send
in teams to monitor the situation. (Riina Kionka)

RUSSIANS THINK BALTS ARE HOSTILE, SAYS POLL. A recent poll of
leading Russian opinion makers shows the three Baltic States
at the top of a list of foreign countries regarded as being hostile
to Russia. According to an October poll conducted by the Russian
Department of Public Opinion Research among parliamentarians,
party and military leaders, and other influential persons, some
70% of the respondents named Estonia as being the country most
hostile to Russia, followed by 62% for Latvia and 58% for Lithuania.
The countries regarded most friendly toward Russia included Kazakhstan
(86% of the respondents), Germany (55%) and the US (44%). Only
5% of those questioned considered Estonia to be either "a friendly
country" or "Russia's ally." BNS, citing Interfax, reported the
results of the survey, released on 16 November at the Russian
Foreign Ministry's Council for Foreign Policy meeting held that
day in Moscow. (Riina Kionka)

RAISED PASSIONS CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR RUSSIANS IN BALTIC. At the
same Council of Foreign Policy meeting, Russian experts warned
against exciting passions over the situation of the Russian minority
in the Baltic states and other republics of the former USSR.
Ednan Agayev, head of the Foreign Ministry's Analysis Department,
told an RFE/RL correspondent in Moscow on 16 November that participants
in the meeting agreed that raised passions will cause more problems
for the minorities themselves especially in the Baltic States.
Agayev said the recommendations will be considered in the preparation
of Foreign Ministry guidelines on relations with the former Soviet
republics. (Riina Kionka)

ESTONIA LAUNCHES PRIVATIZATION BIDDING. On 17 November the Estonian
counterpart to Germany's Treuhand privatization agency published
a list of 38 large enterprises set for sale by bid. BNS reports
that textile, furniture, footwear, and electronics manufacturers
are among the 38, which include the well-known Kreenholm textile
plant in Narva, the Kommunaar shoe factory in Tallinn, and the
Kalev confectionery company, also in Tallinn. Together, the 38
enterprises currently employ some 26,000 persons. Bids will be
taken until 22 December, and only those proposals with bank guarantees
covering 5% of the total bid will be accepted. The privatization
agency will decide on all bids within 90-days. (Riina Kionka)


NOTICE: The RFE/RL Daily Report will not appear 18 November,
which is a public holiday.

[As of 1200 CET]

Compiled by Hal Kosiba & Charles Trumbull