No. 223, 19 November 1992

SUCCESSOR STATES TO THE USSR

YELTSIN WARNS CONGRESS. Russian President Yeltsin said at a meeting
with legislators that he has no intention of violating the Constitution
by introducing presidential rule, but he stressed that if the
Congress moves against the reforms, he will "defend the will
of the people," ITAR-TASS reported on 17 November. Yeltsin stated
that he will replace some of the present ministers, but added
that these changes should not be seen as a concession to the
Congress. Yeltsin also held a personal meeting with parliamentary
speaker Ruslan Khasbulatov and with heads of local governments.
The latter have formed a new institution: the Union of Russian
Governors, which aims to strengthen presidential institutions
on the regional level. (Alexander Rahr)

PARLIAMENT STILL CONSERVATIVE ON LAND REFORM. Private purchase
or sale of land is still illegal in Russia, but the Democratic
Russia Coalition has been helping organize a campaign to gather
enough signatures to force a national referendum on private land
ownership. One million signatures had to be collected within
three months, and 1.9 million had been collected by the deadline
on Wednesday. Parliament, however, continues to display a more
conservative approach to land ownership; it has just approved
draft legislation which would continue restrictions on the size
and use of private plots. These developments were reported by
Western news agencies on 18 and 19 November. (Sheila Marnie)


RUSSIA, SOUTH KOREA SIGN COOPERATION AGREEMENT. On 18 November
Russian President Boris Yeltsin and President Roh Tae Woo of
South Korea signed a bilateral agreement aimed at promoting stability
in the South Pacific region, ITAR-TASS reported. The two sides
pledged to settle all disputes by peaceful means, to hold regular
meetings between heads of state and members of government, and
to pool their efforts in combating organized crime. After the
signing, Yeltsin handed over to the South Korean President the
"black box" containing tapes with recorded reports from the crew
of the South Korean Boeing-747 shot down in September 1983. At
a meeting with representatives of the South Korean business community
on the same day, Yeltsin reportedly said that Russia would discontinue
military assistance to North Korea and that Moscow was ready
to cooperate with Seoul in the area of military technology. (Stephen
Foye)

MOROZOV DENIES UKRAINE WILL SELL NUKES. Ukrainian Defense Minister
Konstantin Morozov told a news conference in Kiev on 17 November
that Kiev had no intention to sell its nuclear warheads and that
it would tackle the problem of their elimination jointly with
Russia, Interfax reported. His remarks came during a meeting
between the Chairman of the Ukrainian parliament, Ivan Plyushch,
and Prime Minister Leonid Kuchma with US General John Shalikashvili,
the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, NATO's highest ranking
officer. During the press conference it was reportedly announced
that the Ukrainian parliament would soon ratify documents on
nuclear arms reductions (presumably the START treaty) and on
the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. (Stephen Foye)

RUTSKOI (AGAIN) CLAIMS THE CRIMEA FOR RUSSIA. Russian Vice President
Aleksandr Rutskoi is quoted by Interfax on 17 November as having
once again staked out Russia's claim to the Crimean peninsula
and other territories that were formerly part of Russia. The
Russia leader is said to have told students and teachers at Omsk
University that "sooner or later" these territories will revert
to Russia. Rutskoi has made similar statements on a number of
previous occasions following Ukraine's independence declaration.
The Crimea was transferred to Ukraine from the RSFSR in 1954.
(Roman Solchanyk)

RUTSKOI FOR END OF RADICAL REFORM. Vice President Aleksandr Rutskoi
said during his trip to Omsk that society is tired of radical
reform and therefore the reform course must take a liberal and
social-oriented character. Rutskoi maintained that the convening
of the Congress of People's Deputies on 1 December is "unavoidable"
and indicated that a socially-oriented reform program will be
adopted soon. Rutskoi noted that he favors the program of the
Civic Union. ITAR-TASS on 17 November reported that in Omsk,
Rutskoi plans to meet local leaders of the military-industrial
complex as well as with military commanders of the Siberian military
district behind close doors. (Alexander Rahr)

STANKEVICH ADVOCATES STRONG POWER. Presidential adviser Sergei
Stankevich said on Ostankino TV on 16 November that a liberal-reformist
policy had never been never successful in Russia since it was
never supported by the people and therefore the present "radical-reformist"
government will also ultimately fail. According to him, only
a "union of elites" should be formed in Russia. He stated that,
in his opinion, reforms would take 20 years to implement successfully,
and this could take place only if an energetic, strong power
emerges in Russia. He maintained that it was time for such a
power to assert itself, and added that the president must become
that power. Finally, he said that Russia's present borders can
and must be preserved. (Alexander Rahr)

RADICAL DEMOCRATS FORM NEW ORGANIZATION. A group of radical-democrats,
which had split from "Democratic Russia," have formed the Russian
Constitutional Union, Nezavisimaya gazeta reported on 17 November.
The St. Petersburg radical-reformist deputy Marina Sale was elected
head of the union which regards itself as a "democratic-liberal
opposition to the present regime." The Russian Constitutional
Union sees a way out of the crisis in the convening of a Constitutional
Assembly which would adopt a new Constitution. The union does
not support Yeltsin because it regards him as a potential dictator,
and it calls for the abolishment of the present parliament, which
it regards as Bolshevik. (Alexander Rahr)

DECREE ON RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK CHAIRMAN MINIMIZED. Various Russian
officials have made statements minimizing the political significance
of the recent presidential decree making the Russian Central
Bank head a member of the government. Aleksandr Khandruev, a
deputy chairman at the Central Bank, told Interfax on 17 November
that the bank would lose none of its independence as a result
of the action. Instead, Khandruev asserted, "the Central Bank
will receive an opportunity to exert more influence .-.-. [on]
credit and monetary policy." President Boris Yeltsin spoke in
a similar vein saying that the move would enable closer collaboration
between the government and the bank, but "does not mean that
the bank is being put under the government," AFP reported on
18 November. (Erik Whitlock)

CENTRAL BANK RELEASES 1993 PROGNOSIS. In a report issued to parliament,
the Russian Central Bank has projected 1993 as another bad year
for the Russian economy, according to Western news agencies.
GNP is expected to drop 5-7% in real terms (compared to 21-23%
this year). Industrial production is expected to fall by 12-15%
(compared to 2022% this year). Inflation is forecast to run
at a monthly rate of 12-15% (current inflation is over 20% per
month). The Central Bank figures differ from government calculations
which generally show greater drops in production and lower inflation.
(Erik Whitlock)

LAW ON STATE SECRETS IS DRAFTED. The new law on state secrets
will define various categories of classified information in the
areas of defense and intelligence generally, and in the fields
of strategic nuclear and chemical weapons specifically, according
to Sergei Ivanov, the head of the group drafting the law, in
an interview with Rossiiskie vesti on 14 November. Ivanov also
said the draft law will be linked with the law on state service
and the law on emigration, both of which are now on the agenda
of the Russian parliament. The immediate importance of this law
stems in part from the arrest by the Ministry of Security of
two military scientists, Lev Fedorov and Vil Mirzayanov, who
had published classified information they obtained at work about
Russia's production of new chemical weapons in spite of the Russian
government's agreement to adhere to international treaties that
prohibit such activities. Both scientists were subsequently released
although the government has indicted Mirzayanov on charges of
revealing state secrets. (Victor Yasmann)

MORE ON STATE SECRETS LAW. According to the same article, the
new law on state secrets bans the classification of information
about natural and man-made catastrophes, social statistics, and
fundamental research which is not linked directly with state
security interests. The law prohibits the withholding of information
about officials' incompetence, mismanagement, privileges, and
benefits. Reflecting the needs of a market economy, the law requires
publication of information about unfair business practices. Finally,
a special provision of the law affords citizens the right to
demand declassification of government files concerning important
to society; the law also guarantees that officials respond to
their request within one month. (Victor Yasmann)

GRACHEV CALLS IN WEAPONS. Russian Minister of Defense General
Pavel Grachev has issued an order requiring that all weapons
not in "combat subunits" be handed over to central storerooms.
ITAR-TASS on 16 November quoted the minister as saying that he
was forced to take such a strict measure because of the increased
number of thefts. He said that "the last straw" was the recent
theft of arms and ammunition from a Ministry of Defense military
institute. The order will apply to logistics and service units,
civil-defense training units, and the like. Several weeks ago
there was a report of a similar order last summer, but Grachev
was said to have explained that it had only applied to units
which were known to lose weapons. (Doug Clarke)

SHAPOSHNIKOV WANTS NATO-STYLE FORCES FOR CIS. In an 18 November
interview with Interfax, CIS Commander in Chief Marshal Evgenii
Shaposhnikov said that he favored a NATO-style arrangement for
the CIS, in which each of the members would provide a specified
number of troops to join the unified forces to carry out assignments
of common interest. He criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense
for being in too much of a hurry to get the nuclear weapons still
deployed in Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan transferred to Russia.
Shaposhnikov suggested that the commander of Russia's Strategic
Rocket Forces should be assigned as one of his deputies in the
same manner as was presently done with the commanders of the
Russian air force, navy, and air defense forces. (Doug Clarke)


UKRAINIAN PRIME MINISTER DECLARES WAR ON ECONOMIC MISMANAGEMENT.
In his report to the Ukrainian parliament on 18 November, Ukraine's
new Prime Minister Leonid Kuchma delivered a grim picture of
the state of the Ukrainian economy. He told the lawmaker in an
address which was broadcast live by Ukrainian Radio that up until
now the country had not had market reforms but "criminal mismanagement"
and "economic crime." No other former Soviet republic, he claimed,
had "sustained such a collapse," and "populist decisions" had
reduced large sections of the population to poverty. What was
need , Kuchma said, was something on the scale of the "post-war
reconstruction." The prime minister said that the new government
was ready to assume responsibility for the state of the economy,
and asked for the powers of the government and president to be
expanded in order for them to be better able to deal with the
crisis. (Bohdan Nahaylo)

UKRAINIAN EMERGENCY ECONOMIC MEASURES. On 18 November, the Ukrainian
parliament agreed to grant special powers to Prime Minister Leonid
Kuchma for six months, in order to enable him to implement his
emergency economic measures, Interfax and Western press agencies
reported. They include: rapid privatization of small enterprises
and the transformation of large enterprises into joint stock
companies. Kuchma also mentioned a proposed cut in sales taxes,
controls over wage increases and the amount of foreign currency
held by enterprises. He proposes to bring down monthly inflation
from 30% to 2-3% within a year, and reduce the budget deficit
from 44% to 5-6% of the GNP. (Sheila Marnie)

CHECHEN-RUSSIAN DISENGAGEMENT ALMOST COMPLETE. Chechen and Russian
forces each pulled back 8 kilometers from the disputed Chechnya-Ingushetia
border on 17 November, ITAR-TASS and Interfax reported. This
has led to some reduction in tension, but the Chechen Ministry
of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on 18 November claiming
that Russian forces were still occupying part of Chechen territory,
ITAR-TASS reported. The statement drew the attention of the world
public to the explosive nature of this situation and declared
that Russian troops should leave Chechnya and the whole of the
Caucasus. (Ann Sheehy)

SHAKHRAI ON NORTH OSSETIAN/INGUSH CONFLICT. At a press conference
in Vladikavkaz on 18-November, Russian deputy premier Sergei
Shakhrai who heads the provisional administration in North Ossetia
and Ingushetia, said that 258 people including 11 military had
died as a result of the conflict, and 580 had received serious
gunshot wounds. The damage in the Prigorodnyi raion of North
Ossetia was provisionally estimated at more than 11 billion rubles,
and about 3,000 houses had been burnt or destroyed, ITAR-TASS
reported. Shakhrai said that the situation was still not completely
under control as illegal armed formations were still operating
in the villages. At a press conference in Moscow on 17 November
reported by Interfax and ITAR-TASS, spokesmen of the Civic Union
put the blame for the situation in North Ossetia on the Russian
government which still had no policy concept for the North Caucasus.
They suggested that direct presidential rule should be introduced
in the affected area. (Ann Sheehy)

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

CZECHOSLOVAK PARLIAMENT FAILS TO PASS BILL ON THE ABOLITION OF
FEDERATION. The Czechoslovak Federal Assembly failed on 18 November
to approve legislation on the dissolution of the Czechoslovak
federation on 1 January 1993. The bill had to be approved by
a three-fifths majority in all three parts of the Federal Assembly-the
House of the People, and the Czech and Slovak chambers of the
House of Nations. CSTK reports that the bill gained the necessary
majority in the House of the People and the Czech chamber of
the House of Nations but failed by three votes in the Slovak
chamber of the House of Nations. Passage was blocked by opposition
deputies who demanded a retroactive "ratification referendum"
on the split, to be held in December. Following the bill's defeat,
the Federal Assembly elected a 12member committee charged with
finding a compromise that would guarantee the bill's passage
when the parliament votes again on 24 November. Both Czech Prime
Minister Vaclav Klaus and Slovak Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar
have said that they will ask the republican parliaments to split
the country, should the federal parliament fail to approve the
separation bill. On 17 November both republican parliaments approved
resolutions in which they recommended that the federal parliament
approves the bill. (Jiri Pehe)

WALESA RATIFIES SMALL CONSTITUTION. Polish President Lech Walesa
ratified "the small constitution" on 17 November, barely one
hour after the Constitutional Tribunal ruled that new parliamentary
rules according to which it had been passed were not unconstitutional.
The small constitution, which defines the division of powers
between the president, the government, and the Sejm and gives
the government special executive powers, replaces most of the
provisions of the 1952 constitution, which has survived in a
rump form since the end of 1989. It is to serve as an interim
rump constitution until a new democratic constitution is passed.
It might shortly be complemented by a Charter of Human Rights
and Freedoms which, at Walesa's suggestion, could be incorporated
into the new constitution. Addressing the Constitutional Commission
of the General Assembly on 18 November, Walesa urged the lawmakers
to "rise above party and personal differences" and to draft a
constitution that would last into the 21st century, protect basic
freedoms, ensure the rule of law and provide democratic controls.
He declared his readiness to resign when the new constitution
takes effect, according to PAP reports. Domestic observers believe
the solution of the constitutional impasse will strengthen the
government and help stabilize the political situation. (Anna
Sabbat-Swidlicka)

COALITION IN LITHUANIAN GOVERNMENT. Currently the major political
question in Lithuania is the offer by the Lithuanian Democratic
Labor Party (LDLP) to other parties to form a broad coalition
in the government and the Seimas, Radio Lithuania reports. On
18 September LDLP chairman Algirdas Brazauskas met with parliament
chairman Vytautas Landsbergis to discuss the principles of forming
power in Lithuania, but no details of the talks have as yet been
revealed. LDLP first deputy chairman Gediminas Kirkilas suggested
that it is likely that four current ministers, including National
Defense Minister Audrius Butkevicius, will be asked to remain.
Another LDLP leader Nerijus Germanas said that only preliminary
talks on appointments are being held. The radio's Russian service
noted that many members of the LDLP presidium believe that the
LDLP members will not necessarily make up the majority of the
government. (Saulius Girnius)

ROMANIAN PARLIAMENT DEBATES CABINET. Parliament debated on 18
November the make-up and program of the proposed cabinet of prime
minister-designate Nicolae Vacaroiu. Opposition deputies criticized
the presence in the new cabinet of several ministers who had
served under Nicolae Ceausescu, including Dumitru Popescu, a
former deputy electric power minister and Iulian Mincu, the nominee
for health minister, who was involved in Ceausescu's so-called
"scientific nourishment program." The nomination of another controversial
figure, Vasile Mois, as minister for parliamentary relations
was invalidated by a parliamentary commission, after which he
withdrew his candidacy. The opposition also criticized Vacaroiu's
governing program for proposing a slowdown in market-economy
reforms. Vacaroiu defended his program against such accusations.
More debates are expected today. (Dan Ionescu)

LATVIAN ECONOMIC REFORMS MINISTER NOT APPROVED. On 17 November
the Latvian Supreme Council voted 60 to 6 with 23 abstentions
in favor of appointing former deputy finance minister Uldis Osis
as the new minister for economic reforms, BNS reports. The vote,
however, was one short of the required absolute majority of deputies.
The major objections to Osis came from rural deputies who feel
he lacks competence in agricultural issues. It is likely that
his candidacy will be proposed again later this month. (Saulius
Girnius)

SERBS STEP UP ATTACKS ON BOSNIAN TOWNS. Western agencies reported
on 18 November that Serbian forces have intensified shelling
of several key Bosnian towns. These include Gradacac, Travnik,
Bihac, and Maglaj, all of which remain under Muslim or Croatian
control and which control important supply corridors. On 19 November
the New York Times reported that NATO ambassadors agreed in Brussels
the previous day to enforce the UN-authorized naval blockade
of Serbia-Montenegro. The Atlantic alliance will coordinate its
actions with the Western European Union and expects to have a
detailed report on concrete measures ready on 20-November. The
19 November Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung said that discussion
is under way in Bonn over the terms of possible German participation
in imposing the blockade. (Patrick Moore)

WORLD FIGURES CALL FOR END TO "GENOCIDE" AGAINST MUSLIMS. Western
agencies on 18 November said that former US Presidents Ronald
Reagan and Gerald Ford, former British Prime Minister Margaret
Thatcher, former US ambassador at the UN Jeane Kirkpatrick, and
others issued a statement in Geneva warning that "the savagery
can and must be stopped or the tragedy will spread far beyond
Bosnia." Both Reagan and Thatcher were outspoken in 1991 in their
support for Croatian and Slovenian independence. Meanwhile, Radio
Croatia reported on 18 November that Slovenia has sent a message
to all CSCE member states urging an end to the arms embargo on
Bosnia, while Reuters quoted French foreign ministry officials
as saying that France is calling for a meeting of foreign ministers
to give "a new impulse" to international efforts to stop the
fighting. Finally, Islamic states expressed anger on 18 November
to the UN sanctions measures taken two days earlier. They regard
the moves as too little and too late, and call for a tougher
response to Serbian aggression. (Patrick Moore)

REACTIONS TO THE SANCTIONS. Milan Panic, Prime Minister of the
rump Yugoslavia described the new UN sanctions as "exaggerated"
but said early elections, planned for late December, could lead
to a lifting of them. Panic underscored that the latest UN decision
only serves the political aims of Serbia's President Slobodan
Milosevic, because "it unifies the Serbs in trouble." Federal
foreign minister Ilija Djukic described the sanctions as "unjust,"
while Bosnia Serb leader Radovan Karadzic said the new sanctions
will not bring peace to the region because it will only encourage
the Bosnian Muslims and Croats to keep on fighting the Serbs.
Yugoslav Transport Minister Milan Vujicic said the UN embargo
on transport of oil, coal, and other products via Yugoslavia
will place several thousand people out of work. Risto Nikovski,
a Macedonian Foreign Ministry official, called the sanctions
a disaster for Macedonia's energy-starved economy, and the director
of Macedonian railroads said they will effectively halt all rail
traffic between Macedonia and northern Europe. Radios Serbia
and Croatia carried the reports on 17 November. (Milan Andrejevich)


BULGARIA TO HALT OIL EXPORT TO FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLICS. On
18 November Bulgaria banned export of petroleum products to all
former Yugoslav republics, Reuters reports. While Bulgarian trade
officials said a ban appeared to be the only way of effectively
enforcing the tightened UN embargo, the government may also be
seeking to limit the damage done by widespread violations on
the Bulgarian economy. The chairman of the national petroleum
company told Western agencies that many Bulgarian gas stations
can no longer be supplied due to the disappearance of some 1,000
railway cars in ex-Yugoslavia after delivering oil. Like Romania,
Bulgaria has asked the UN for technical assistance to impose
a naval blockade on the Danube. (Kjell Engelbrekt)

MACEDONIAN ALBANIANS MIGHT SEEK DIVISION. The Guardian reports
on 17 November that leaders of the Albanian minority in the Republic
of Macedonia will be forced to declare western Macedonia autonomous
if Albanians are not granted the same rights as Macedonians.
Sami Ibrahimi, vice president of the Party for Democratic Prosperity,
the main Albanian party in Macedonia, told the paper that his
party will urge the EC to delay recognition of Macedonia until
the republic's constitution is amended to grant Albanians the
status of a nation. Ibrahimi added that if they are not so recognized,
his party will have no option but to withdraw its representatives
in parliament and government and demand partition. Ethnic Albanians
make up between 20% and 40% of the republic's population, depending
on whose figures are used. (Milan Andrejevich)

ESTONIA FREEZES BANK ASSETS. On 17 November the Estonian Central
Bank froze the accounts of three top commercial banks, BNS reports.
The Estonian bank said the banks were mismanaged and did not
have enough funds to pay depositors. An official of the Tartu
Commercial Bank said the move is part of an attempt to blame
all of Estonia's economic difficulties on "three unlucky banks."
An official from the Union Baltic Bank, said the Central Bank
failed to help it recover $40 million from Vneshekonombank, the
former Soviet foreign trade bank, and that made his bank's failure
inevitable. The third bank affected was the Northern Estonia
Credit Union. Central Bank spokesman Kaja Kell told BNS on 18
November that the crackdown demonstrates Estonia is serious about
banking reform. (Riina Kionka)

ROMANIA, EC INITIAL ASSOCIATION ACCORD. On 17 November Romania
and the European Community initialed an association agreement
providing for closer trade, economic, and political ties. Western
agencies reported that the accord had been initialed in Brussels
by Romania's State Secretary for Trade and Tourism, Napoleon
Pop, and EC external relations official Daniel Guggenbuhl. Differences
between Romania and the EC on agriculture and an interim trade
pact were resolved earlier this month. Romania is the fourth
former Warsaw Pact member to sign an association accord with
the EC, after Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary. The accord
must be ratified by the Romanian and EC parliaments. Its trade
provisions, however, will be in force before ratification. (Dan
Ionescu)

EC CALLS ON BULGARIA TO ACCEPT ASSOCIATION DEAL. Top EC officials
visiting Sofia on 17-November called on Bulgaria to accept the
proposed association deal and finalize an agreement by the end
of 1992. Reuters quoted the head of the EC Commission's Foreign
Affairs Directorate, Pablo Benavides, as saying that EC negotiators
do not have much room to maneuver and that Bulgaria should consider
dropping demands for greater trade access. The Bulgarian government
is requesting bigger trade quotas for textiles, steel, and agricultural
products. (Kjell Engelbrekt)

EC IMPOSES DUTIES ON EAST EUROPEAN STEEL. A lobbying drive by
hard-pressed West European steel makers ended up by raising import
duties on Hungarian, Polish, Czechoslovak and Croatian steel.
The new duties amount to between 10% and 30%, the Financial Times
reported on 18 November. Steel imports by these countries jumped
by 70% since March of last year, when quotas were dropped. According
to an EC steel industry official, imports from Eastern Europe
reached an 18% market share in 1992, up from 7.8% in 1988, and
this constitutes dumping, undercutting Western prices by 25%.
(Karoly Okolicsanyi)

RUSSIA SAYS BALTIC PULLOUT UPSETS BALANCE OF POWER. A high Russian
official believes that a Russian withdrawal from the Baltic States
would alter the global political and military balance of power
and says that NATO should compensate by withdrawing some of its
own forces from "other regions." First Deputy Prime Minister
Vladimir Shumeiko told BNS that in order to maintain global parity,
troop withdrawals from the Baltic States should be followed by
a NATO pullout. Shumeiko, who made the statement in connection
with a Defense Ministry working group discussion on Baltic withdrawals
on 18 November, did not specify the "other regions." (Riina Kionka)


LUGAR VS. CARTER ON HUMAN RIGHTS. US Senator Richard Lugar told
reporters on 18 November in Tallinn that former US president
Jimmy Carter's remarks earlier this week on alleged human rights
abuses in the Baltic States do not represent the views of the
US government. Lugar, who is visiting Estonia this week, said
former President Carter was on a private visit, and thus represented
only himself. On 16 November, after visiting Russia and Kazakhstan-but
not the Baltic States-Carter told Russia's Ostankino TV that
the US is witnessing "violations of the rights of nonindigenous
populations in Estonia and Latvia." BNS reported both statements.
(Riina Kionka)

[As of 1200 CET] Compiled by Hal Kosiba & Charles Trumbull