No. 127, 07 July 1992

SUCCESSOR STATES TO THE USSR

CIS SUMMIT LEADERS AGREE ON PEACEKEEPERS . . . Security issues
proved once again to be a contentious issue for CIS leaders meeting
in Moscow on 6 July. According to CIS and Western reports, the
participants did agree in principle to create joint peacekeeping
forces that might be deployed in areas of ethnic conflict, first
and foremost in Moldova. According to Russian Foreign Minister
Andrei Kozyrev, the force would consist of between 2,000 and
10,000 troops and could be deployed by the end of July. While
several CIS leaders hailed the agreement as a sign that the CIS
was alive and well, Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrossyan disagreed,
arguing that the commonwealth still lacks the will and the means
to halt interethnic disputes. Russian President Yeltsin said
that CIS foreign and defense ministers would meet before 15 July
to establish the peacekeeping force, The Washington Post reported.
(Stephen Foye)

. . . BUT STUMBLE AGAIN ON STRATEGIC FORCES. The summit leaders
were once again unable to resolve the question of control over
strategic nuclear forces located in Ukraine, however, and, in
the end, removed the issue from the agenda. The impasse, which
began in April when Ukraine declared its intention to establish
"administrative" control over strategic nuclear forces in Ukraine,
has left Ukraine isolated among the four CIS states possessing
nuclear weapons. Ukrainian spokesmen denied that Kiev was trying
to block the agreement on strategic forces, and Ukrainian First
Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Bizhan insisted that Ukraine still
intended to become a non-nuclear state. According to Interfax
on 6 July, Bizhan said that Ukraine had refused various options
proposed by the CIS command to replace nuclear warheads in Ukraine
with non-nuclear equivalents primarily because Kiev had no faith
in CIS Commander in Chief Evgenii Shaposhnikov. (Stephen Foye)


OTHER SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS. The CIS leaders also apparently
decided to restructure the CIS Border Forces. According to Radio
Mayak on 6 July, Yeltsin said that the commander of the CIS Border
Forces, Ilya Kalinichenko, had resigned and that a CIS Council
of Commanders of Border Forces is now being set up. The implications
of that change were not clear, but the decision is related to
Moscow's intention to create independent Russian Border Forces.
Meanwhile, Radio Mayak also reported that the summit leaders
had endorsed the appointment of Colonel General Boris Pyankov
as the first deputy commander in chief of the CIS Joint Forces.
Pyankov has been active since last year's August coup in efforts
to negotiate the division of the former Soviet armed forces.
(Stephen Foye)

ECONOMIC ACCORDS AT CIS SUMMIT. Agreement was reportedly reached
on a number of economic issues at the CIS summit, according to
ITAR-TASS. These included the creation of an "economic court"
that will resolve legal disputes on economic matters between
member states (Kravchuk objected to the wording of the proposal);
the division of the property of the former USSR (to be divided
in the same way as the debt of the former Soviet Union); and
the coordination of the introduction of new currencies when states
leave the ruble zone. Yeltsin told reporters after the summit
that the other leaders had authorized him to ask, at the G-7
summit, for several years' deferral of principal and interest
payments on the debt of the FSU. (Keith Bush)

CONSTITUTIONAL COURT HEARINGS ON COMMUNIST PARTY OPENED. The
Russian Constitutional Court began hearings on 7 July to consider
the ban of the Soviet communist party; the opening session was
broadcast live on Russian TV. The court will review three presidential
decrees, dated from 23 August to 6 November, 1991, banning the
Russian and Soviet communist parties and confiscating their property,
as well as the constitutionality of the party's activities. The
Russian president's lawyers intend to argue that the Communist
Party was not a true party but a state structure which systematically
violated constitutional norms. The party's representatives, for
their part, will argue that President Yeltsin overstepped his
powers and has violated the rights of 19 million party members.
A large volume of documents will be reviewed, demonstrating the
role of the party in the August 1991 attempted coup and its activities
while in power from 1917-91, including its role in political
repression during the Soviet era. (Julia Wishnevsky/Carla Thorson)


YELTSIN REJECTS POSSIBILITY OF PUTSCH. Boris Yeltsin reprimanded
Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev for his statement of
a possible coup d'état and called the warning "harmful." In his
press conference reported by ITAR-TASS on 4 July, he noted that
the press had wrongly interpreted the minister's remarks. He
named some reasons why, in his opinion, a putsch in Russia is
not feasible. First, the army is completely faithful to him.
Second, the ministries of defense, internal affairs and security
are all in the hands of his firm supporters. Third, the opposition
forces have no social base in the country. And fourth, there
is no one like former KGB boss Vladimir Kryuchkov who could organize
such a putsch. (Alexander Rahr)

RUSSIAN POLL: 58% WOULD SUPPORT A NEW COUP. Commenting on Yeltsin's
4 July interview in which he rejected the possibility of another
putch, "Ostankino" TV reported on 5 July that the majority of
the Russian population think differently. A specially commissioned
poll found that 46% of those questioned thought a coup possible;
only 30% ruled it out. More important, only 30% said they would
not support a new putsch; while 58% said they would. The TV said
the majority thought authoritarian rule would bring better living
standards (68%) and less crime (65%) while those putting human
rights and democracy first numbered only 25% and 15% respectively.
This corresponds to a recent opinion poll that found that the
number of Muscovites dissatisfied with their lives is now 73%,
up from 61% in April (The Times, 1 July). (Elizabeth Teague)


GORBACHEV ON YELTSIN'S ATTEMPT TO DISCREDIT HIM. Former Soviet
leader Mikhail Gorbachev complained, during a meeting with a
group of Russian intellectuals, that President Yeltsin has set
up a "special group of people" to discredit him and bring him
to trial, Western agencies reported on 3 July. Gorbachev noted
that when he came to Japan, he found out that the Russian Embassy
had been told to avoid making contact with him and he also reportedly
had trouble obtaining a passport to travel to Israel. Gorbachev
claimed that he was informed of the existence of such a group
two months ago. Gorbachev also noted that Yeltsin has surrounded
himself with aides who want to push the president toward authoritarian
rule. (Alexander Rahr)

14TH ARMY COMMANDER CRITICIZES YELTSIN. . . At a news conference
in Tiraspol on 4 July, the commander of Russia's 14th Army in
Moldova, Maj. Gen. Aleksandr Lebed, deprecated--in an apparent
reference to Yeltsin--the policy of "going with an outstretched
hand to the world's cabinets, instead of building up a great
power capable of imposing its will," Moldovapres and Radio Bucharest
reported. The Times, on 6 July, in turn reported that Lebed urged
that a stop be put to "political blathering and begging for aid
around the world." Lebed, who was speaking on the day of Yeltsin's
meeting with Moldovan President Mircea Snegur in Moscow, also
charged that Snegur was "negotiating with Yeltsin only in order
to mislead public opinion, while in reality preparing for war."
Lebed has just been appointed by Yeltsin, who expressed satisfaction
with this appointment and full confidence in Lebed, in a telephone
call-in session reproduced by Komsomolskaya pravda on 3 July.
(Vladimir Socor)

. . . AND ASSAILS MOLDOVAN GOVERNMENT. Lebed told the same news
conference that he "can no longer regard Moldova's President
as a legitimate president" as he has "created a fascist state."
He also termed "[Moldova's] government a fascist clique," and
accused Moldova of "committing genocide on the border between
Moldova and the Dniester republic.'" Lebed said that "the former
USSR, this huge country, ought to take all measures to send fascism
to its deserved place on history's gallows. It would be appropriate
to start this process from the bridgehead of Cocieri" [one of
the last two Moldovan bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dniester].
Lebed's remarks were carried by Moldovapres and Radio Moscow
on 4 July. (Vladimir Socor)

US SENATE URGES WITHDRAWAL OF RUSSIAN ARMY FROM MOLDOVA. The
United States Senate on 2 July adopted by an overwhelming margin
an amendment, offered by Senator Larry Pressler, to the law on
US aid to Russia. The amendment asks the US government to "urge
through all possible means the Russian government to withdraw
the 14th Army from the independent and sovereign state of Moldova"
and also to "urge an end to the economic blockade of the Republic
of Moldova"; and that the US should support the establishment
of an international monitoring committee, including the US, to
oversee the "orderly and expeditious withdrawal" of Russian troops
from Moldova. (Vladimir Socor)

KRAVCHUK LEAVES FOR BRUSSELS AND HELSINKI. On 7 July, while the
Ukrainian government headed by Prime Minister Vitold Fokin faced
a vote of no confidence, Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk
embarked on working visits to Brussels and Helsinki. In Brussels,
apart from meetings with Belgian leaders, Kravchuk is scheduled
to address an international conference on anti-Semitism. On 8-10
July, Kravchuk will take part in the CSCE summit in Finland.
(Bohdan Nahaylo)

ROME KARABAKH PEACE TALKS END IN DEADLOCK. The third session
of preparatory talks in Rome on the CSCE Karabakh peace conference
to be held in Minsk closed on 6 July without reaching an agreement
on ways of resolving the conflict, and the head of the Armenian
government delegation accused the Azerbaijanis of launching a
new military assault every time a new phase in negotiations was
reached. Western agencies reported. According to ITAR-TASS, the
chairman of the talks, Mario Raffaelli, nonetheless greeted as
"constructive" the belated agreement of the Armenian delegation
from Nagorno-Karabakh to participate in the talks; he said it
was up to the participants in the CSCE summit in Helsinki this
week to decide whether a fourth round of preparatory talks is
necessary prior to the Minsk conference. (Liz Fuller)

DEMONSTRATORS CALL ON ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT TO RESIGN. Some 40,000
demonstrators gathered in Erevan on 6 July to demand the Armenian
government's resignation and diplomatic recognition of the self-proclaimed
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Western agencies reported. The opposition
parties represented within the Armenian parliament have repeatedly
made the same demands over the past three weeks. (Liz Fuller)


GAMSAKHURDIA SUPPORTERS LAUNCH NEW ATTACK IN GEORGIA. A group
of 300 supporters of ousted Georgian President Zviad Gamsakhurdia
blew up two strategic rail bridges in western Georgia on 6 July
and then laid siege to a school building in the town of Tsalendzhika
where a detachment of 60 troops from the unofficial paramilitary
group "Mkhedrioni" and the group's leader, Dzhaba Ioseliani,
were garrisoned. Six people were killed and many wounded when
Georgian government troops moved in to break the siege, Interfax
reported. Gamsakhurdia supporters have launched two car bomb
attacks on Mkhedrioni leaders over the past month. (Liz Fuller)


TAJIK OPPOSITION ON REFUGEES. ITAR-TASS reported on 7 July that,
in an interview with the Dushanbe newspaper Eko, Tajik Democratic
Reform Movement Chairman Kakhramon Ashurov criticized the lack
of legal protection for refugees. Ashurov noted the particular
need for a law on refugees for Tajikistan, since nearly 100,000
people, overwhelmingly non-Tajik, have fled the republic so far
this year due to political instability. The draft constitution
now before parliament forbids dual citizenship, and limits the
official use of the Russian language, thereby stimulating outmigration
of Russian-speakers. Russian-language media and education have
decreased precipitously, though Tajik law stipulates the introduction
of Tajik as the official language only in 1995. (Cassandra Cavanaugh)


GAIDAR QUANTIFIES FSU CONVERTIBLE CURRENCY DEBT. Egor Gaidar
told parliament on 3 July that the country's foreign debt now
totals $74 billion--an increase of $4 billion since January,
Western agencies reported. It is thought that Gaidar was referring
to the convertible currency debt of the former Soviet Union,
which had been estimated at about $65 billion at the end of 1991.
The latter figure excluded debts to former socialist countries
totaling some $17 billion and commercial arrears of about $4
billion. Gaidar said that Russia's foreign debt was not large
in relation to the nation's wealth "but it is huge from the point
of view of its restructuring." (Keith Bush)

RUSSIAN ENTERPRISES CLOSING. Radio Rossii of 3 July reported
an interview by the chairman of the Russian parliamentary Committee
on Industry and Energy with Imapress. The chairman stated that
hundreds of enterprises in Russia are shutting down every month,
and that in the second quarter of this year, 50% more workers
were let go compared to the first quarter. This number did not
include workers sent on extended leave and those transferred
to a shortened work-week. The chairman did not mention the presidential
decree of 2 July on the settlement of inter-enterprise debts
which, if implemented, could further raise the number of enterprises
to be closed down and the total of laid-off workers. (Sarah Helmstadter)


CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

G-7 DISCUSS NEW MEASURES TO DEAL WITH BOSNIAN CRISIS. International
media on 7 July report that the G-7 leaders meeting the previous
day in Munich discussed setting up land corridors from Croatia
to Sarajevo and possibly beyond. Other suggstions included imposing
a naval blockade of Montenegro on the Adriatic, which Italy said
it would recommend to the WEU. The Washington Post adds that
France is interested in blocking trade between Romania and Serbia,
while the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports that Serbia
buys 25,000 tons of oil in Romania each week and ships it from
Constanta to Bar in Montenegro. The German daily cited an article
in Borba quoting the vice-chairman of Serbia's parliament. Some
media suggest that the current talk of further action is designed
to prod the Serbs in Bosnia into retreating, thereby making such
moves unnecessary. (Patrick Moore)

PANIC ASKS FOR 100 DAYS. Yugoslav prime minister-designate Milan
Panic appealed to the 52-state CSCE conference to defer the expulsion
of the rump Yugoslav state from the organization. The New York
Times reports that Panic sent a letter on 6 July to the conference
members, meeting this week in Helsinki, in which he asks for
"100 days, the traditional period given every new government
to show the direction of its actions," before the conference
acts on proposals to expel or suspend Yugoslavia. The CSCE is
considering the actions because of Yugoslavia's involvement in
the Bosnian war. Panic, who is forming a new federal government
for the truncated Yugoslav state this week, told the conference
members that "I need your help and not another obstacle in my
path." (Gordon Bardos)

BOSNIAN CROAT LEADERS CALL ESTABLISHMENT OF CROAT ENCLAVE "TREASON."
Western news agencies on 6 July quoted Bosnian Croatian leaders
Stjepan Kljuic and Jovan Dijvak as lambasting Mate Boban's earlier
proclamation of the "Community of Herceg-Bosna." The political
circumstances surrounding Boban's declaration and other Croats'
reactions to it remain unclear, but past practice suggests that
little should be taken at face value. Meanwhile, there are conflicting
accounts as to whether Serbian forces have succeeded in taking
the strategic town of Derventa northwest of Sarajevo. Elsewhere,
the Independent reports that European countries are increasingly
closing their borders to Bosnian refugees. Reuters quotes Muslims
from Zvornik as saying that Serb forces brutally deported them
from their homes to Hungary in setting up "ethnically pure" Serbian
districts. (Patrick Moore)

POLISH CABINET TALKS NEAR CONCLUSION. Prime minister candidate
Hanna Suchocka announced late on 6 July that her proposed cabinet
is "75% complete." Negotiations are proceeding smoothly, and
Suchocka said she hopes to present a full list of names to President
Lech Walesa by 8 July. Christian National Union deputy Henryk
Goryszewski confirmed that he was in line to become deputy prime
minister for economic matters. He told RFE/RL on 7 July that
the eight disparate parties in the coalition had agreed to leave
ideological battles to the Sejm, freeing the government to push
on pragmatically with Poland's economic transformation. The only
remaining bone of contention is the role of the Center Alliance,
which has demanded that its controversial economic cooperation
minister, Adam Glapinski, retain his post. But even without the
Center Alliance, the new coalition would command a comfortable
parliamentary majority. After meeting with Walesa on 6 July,
Jan Rulewski, the Solidarity union deputy who brokered the eight-party
coalition agreement, told reporters that the president, was warmly
disposed toward the new arrangement. (Louisa Vinton)

OLSZEWSKI, MACIEREWICZ CENSURED FOR "AGENTS" DISCLOSURES. The
special Sejm commission investigating the disclosure of the names
of alleged secret police collaborators by the government of Jan
Olszewski presented its report on 4 July. The report concluded
that former Internal Affairs Minister Antoni Macierewicz and
State Security Office chief Piotr Naimski had deliberately released
the names in a manner that could have destabilized Poland's highest
state institutions. It charged former Prime Minister Olszewski
with complicity. Stopping short of recommending that Macierewicz,
Naimski, and Olszewski face charges before the State Tribunal,
the commission nonetheless recommended that the Sejm consider
their "constitutional responsibility." After nine hours of acrimonious
debate, the issue was postponed until the next Sejm session on
16 July. (Louisa Vinton)

FARMERS YIELD TO POLICE PERSUASION. Without using force Polish
police brought to a halt just outside Warsaw the protest march
staged by farmers from the radical Self-Defense union. The farmers
agreed to move their tractors off the road, ending an 18-hour
blockade of the Warsaw-Berlin highway. Self-Defense leader Andrzej
Lepper continued to demand that the farmers be allowed to parade
through Warsaw. Roads were cleared of protesting farmers in seven
other locations. Police were ordered earlier in the day to take
"decisive action to prevent the blocking of roads," PAP reports.
(Louisa Vinton)

LOOTING AT FORMER SOVIET BASES IN POLAND. The administrative
chief of Legnica voivodship in Lower Silesia (where the Soviet
Northern Group of Forces was once headquartered) ordered law
enforcement agencies in the voivodship on increased alert on
6 July, PAP reported, in order to deal with "the increased looting
of [Polish] state property used temporarily by the troops of
the Russian Federation." (Louisa Vinton)

GONCZ ATTACKED BY DEMOCRATIC FORUM. According to a 6 July MTI
report, representatives of the national presidium of the ruling
Hungarian Democratic Forum issued a statement condemning President
Arpad Goncz for his refusal to dismiss the presidents of Hungarian
Radio and TV. The statement said that Goncz's decision was politically
motivated and therefore he overstepped his constitutional authority.
The Democratic Forum views Goncz's actions as directed against
parliamentary democracy and very dangerous. The statement alleges
Goncz abused his powers and is serving the interest of one segment
of society instead of the whole people. (Judith Pataki)

CONTROVERSY OVER STATUS OF SLOVAKIA'S HUNGARIAN MINORITY. On
6 July CSTK said that Ivan Laluha, chairman of the Slovak National
Council's foreign affairs committee, criticized former Hungarian
Foreign Minister Gyula Horn for suggesting that Slovakia's 600,000-strong
Magyar minority had a right to some form of autonomy. Laluha
said that Hungarians in Slovakia already enjoyed all the rights
called for under international agreements. He was reacting to
statements made by Horn, who is currently the Chairman of the
Hungarian parliament's foreign affairs committee, on 5 July.
Laluha added that Horn should concentrate on good relations between
Budapest and Bratislava instead of "stirring up emotions." (Jan
Obrman)

BULGARIAN SOCIALISTS SAY DEMOCRACY ENDANGERED. In a memorandum
addressed to the member states of the CSCE and "world opinion"--a
summary of which was published in Duma on 6 July--the BSP parliamentary
group contends that "negative tendencies" in Bulgaria threaten
to "reverse the democratic process." As quoted by Duma, part
of the memorandum is devoted to work of the National Assembly,
where the BSP says its proposals and statements have consistently
been "blocked" by the majority. The memorandum further alleges
that violations of human rights, firings based purely on political
considerations, censorship of the electronic media, and phone-tapping
occur frequently in today's Bulgaria. (Kjell Engelbrekt)

BULGARIAN CENSUS SCHEDULED FOR DECEMBER. According to a decree
issued by the government on 6 July, Bulgaria will conduct a census
in December of this year, BTA reports. The census is intended
to provide details about the population and living conditions
as well as reveal the true size of Bulgaria's minorities. The
National Statistical Institute will conduct the count, which
is estimated to cost 85.9 million leva. (Kjell Engelbrekt)

UNEMPLOYMENT ON THE RISE IN ROMANIA . . . Rompres reports on
6 July that the number of jobless in Romania increased by about
27,000 over the last two weeks. There are currently 663,000 unemployed
in Romania, representing 5.7% of the labor force. Only 434,000
receive unemployment benefits, the rest being divided among people
not legally entitled to benefits (some 80,000) and long-term
unemployed, whose eligibility for benefits ceased after the statutory
9-month cutoff period (some 160,000). (Dan Ionescu)

. . . AND LATVIA. State employment office director Sergejs Blazevics
told Radio Riga on 6 July that by the end of the year about 12%
of the labor force may be unemployed; next year the figure could
rise to 20%. About 8,700 persons have been registered as unemployed.
Blazevics said that a major cause of unemployment has been Russia's
failure to supply Latvian factories with raw materials. (Dzintra
Bungs)

LATVIAN RUBLE TO PREVAIL. The Monetary Reform Commission announced
on 6 July that as of 20 July the only legal tender would be the
Latvian ruble. The smallest denomination will be one ruble, Radio
Riga reports. Russian rubles and kopecks will be treated as foreign
currency that can be freely bought and sold. This step is taken
in preparation for the introduction--possibly this fall--of Latvia's
own currency, the lats, and as a consequences of the recent influx
of large amounts of Russian rubles in Latvia. The Latvian ruble
was introduced in May as an interim currency in order to cope
with the grave shortage of cash--i.e. Russian rubles--in Latvia
and has had the same value as the Russian ruble. (Dzintra Bungs)


ENERGY, TRANSPORTATION BILLS BURDEN LATVIAN ENTERPRISES. BNS
reported on 30 June that enterprises are seriously in arrears
for their energy and transportation bills. Minister of Industry
and Energy Aivars Millers said that if the enterprises do not
submit and receive approval for debt repayment plans by 10 July,
electricity and gas would be cut off. The biggest debtors are
Daugavpils chemical fiber plant (82.8 million rubles), Radiotehnika
(20.6 million), Sloka paper factory (18.8 million), Biolar (16
million), and Alfa (11.7 million). The Latvian railroad administration
says that various enterprises owe the railroad about 40 million
rubles, but these debts stem from a change in the system of payments
instituted earlier this year. (Dzintra Bungs)

LITHUANIA INCREASES ENERGY PRICES. BNS reports that on 1 July
the price of a liter of A-76 gasoline rose from 14 to 19 rubles,
A-92 from 18 to 23, and of diesel from 10 to 14. Further price
rises are expected, since Russia has informed Lithuania that
it will send 480,000 tons of crude oil in July at an average
cost of 7,500 rubles/ton. Lithuania had paid 4,5006,000 rubles/ton
in June; the price will probably reach 11,00014,000 rubles per
ton by the end of the year. On 3 July the cost of a kilowatt-hour
of electricity increased from 0.5 rubles to 0.7 rubles for the
general population, religious communities, and producers of agricultural
products; other users will pay 1.42 rubles/kwh. (Saulius Girnius)


VAGNORIUS IN WASHINGTON. On 6 July Lithuanian Prime Minister
Gediminas Vagnorius signed an accord at the State Department
making Lithuania the 161st member of the World Bank and its branches,
the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and
the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes,
Reuters reports. Vagnorius also met with Vice President Dan Quayle
and signed a bilateral trade and investment framework agreement
that commits the two countries to the principles of free trade,
open investment, and protection of intellectual property. (Saulius
Girnius)

ROMANIAN PARLIAMENTARIANS VISIT CHINA. Xinhua reports that a
delegation headed by Dan Martian, chairman of the Chamber of
Deputies arrived in Beijing on 6 July. The delegation will stay
in China for nine days as guests of the Chinese National People's
Congress. Romania's relations to China, particularly close under
Nicolae Ceausescu, have remained good under the current regime.
In January 1991 President Ion Iliescu was the first European
leader to visit China since the violent repression of the opposition
in that country in June 1989. (Dan Ionescu)

ROMANIA SEEKS LOAN FROM THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. Seeking assistance
to finance development projects, Paul Coman, a high-ranking official
in the Romanian Ministry for Economic and Financial Affairs,
arrived in Abu Dhabi on 5 July. He is to meet with officials
from the Abu Dhabi Fund for Arab Economic Development, a government
institution that grants loans to both Arab and non-Arab countries,
Reuters reports. Romania and the UAE signed a cooperation agreement
in June to boast trade. (Dan Ionescu)

[As of 1200 CET]