No. 121, 29 June 1992

SUCCESSOR STATES TO THE USSR

MEETING OF CIS HEADS OF GOVERNMENT IN MINSK. The meeting of CIS
heads of government (in most cases deputy prime ministers) on
26 June was apparently more business-like than usual, to judge
by CIS media reports. Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister Konstantin
Masik noted that for the first time the meeting had been "extremely
constructive." Despite some dissension, the Russian draft agreement
on the procedures for introducing national currencies was initialed.
Documents were signed on raising railway tariffs, pension transfers,
and coordinating work on export control of dangerous technologies.
No agreement was reached on the CIS TV company "Ostankino," which
came in for some harsh criticism; a major stumbling block is
that the promised charter for the company has not yet been drawn
up. (Ann Sheehy)

PROPOSAL TO CREATE CIS ECONOMIC EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE. Belarusian
Prime Minister Vyacheslav Kebich put forward on behalf of Belarus,
Russia, and Kazakhstan a proposal to create a CIS Economic Executive
Committee whose decisions would be binding on all member states.
In support, Kebich cited the remarks of the Russian and Ukrainian
presidents at their recent meeting in Dagomys that such organs
are necessary. The reports are unclear as to how much support
this proposal received, but it is difficult to believe that Kravchuk
will endorse it wholeheartedly, in spite of his recent complaints
that CIS decisions are not being implemented. Up to now he has
been against anything except consultative bodies. (Ann Sheehy)


NO CIS AGREEMENT ON CURRENCIES. The Financial Times of 27 June,
however, cited Aleksandr Granberg, an economic adviser to President
Yeltsin, as reporting failure at the Minsk summit to agree on
procedures to establish separate currencies. Granberg said that
the Ukrainian delegation had "put in doubt" the arrangements
for transferring cash rubles to Russia when Ukraine introduces
its own currency in the fall. Agreement had been reportedly reached
on this issue between Presidents Yeltsin and Kravchuk at Dagomys
on 23 June. Acting Prime Minister Egor Gaidar told a news conference
that the matter will be broached again in Moscow on 6 July. (Keith
Bush)

STATUS OF MOLDOVA AND AZERBAIJAN IN CIS. Reports on the meeting
treated Azerbaijan as though it were still a member of CIS, although
the Azerbaijani leadership has recently said that it does not
regard Azerbaijan as a member since its parliament never ratified
the treaty. The Moldovan parliament has never done so either.
Both were represented in Minsk by observers. At the press conference
after the meeting Kebich said that it had been decided that those
states that had not ratified the CIS treaty would in future not
participate as full members. Their status would be decided in
each instance immediately before the opening of the meeting.
(Ann Sheehy)

FOUR PRESIDENTS DISCUSS MOLDOVA. While in Istanbul to sign the
Black Sea cooperation pact, the Presidents of Russia, Ukraine,
Moldova, and Romania conferred among themselves and issued a
communiqué on the conflict in Moldova on 25 June, Western agencies
reported. The communiqué called for an immediate and unconditional
ceasefire, the disengagement of forces within 24 hours of the
ceasefire, the neutrality of Russia's 14th Army, Russian-Moldovan
negotiations on that army's status and the terms of its withdrawal,
and a "political status" to be granted by Moldova to its eastern
area. Yeltsin and Snegur constituted themselves as "guarantors"
of the ceasefire. Statements made on the fringes of the conference
indicated that Russia will insist on a formal autonomous status
for eastern Moldova, will link that issue to any withdrawal of
its army from the area, and is prepared to use economic sanctions
against Moldova. (Vladimir Socor)

NEW COMMANDER FOR 14TH ARMY. A 42-year-old Airborne Forces commander,
Maj. Gen. Aleksandr Lebed, has been named by the Russian Defense
Ministry to replace Maj. Gen. Yurii Nekachev as commander of
the troubled 14th army in Moldova, ITAR-TASS reported on 28 and
29 June. Lebed first become known during last year's August coup
when, like current Russian Defense Minister Pavel Grachev, he
sided with Boris Yeltsin against the putchists. Like Grachev,
Lebed is also anything but a political liberal, and upon assuming
his new duties repeated the charge that "genocide" has been perpetrated
against the Russian population in the Dniester region. He said
that the Russian army would henceforth take up a stance of "armed
neutrality," meaning that the 14th army would not stand idly
by and, in his words, watch "as peaceful inhabitants are killed,
wounded, and maimed before our eyes." His appointment is hardly
likely to calm tensions in the Dniester region. (Stephen Foye)


MOLDOVAN APPEAL TO THE WORLD. In an appeal to the "governments,
parliaments, and peoples of the world," issued through Moldovapres
on 23 June, the Moldovan Parliamentary Presidium said that "pro-communist
paramilitary forces," Russia's 14th Army, and units of Russian
Cossacks had seized a part of Moldova's territory. Pointing to
the recent "threats proffered by the leadership of the Russian
Federation," the Presidium asked all states to help halt "the
armed aggression against Moldova." It also called for inspections
by foreign experts to ascertain the causes and consequences of
the fighting in eastern Moldova and the true situation of human
and ethnic rights in the republic. Previous appeals of this kind
by Moldova have been largely ignored. (Vladimir Socor)

UN DELEGATION TO MOLDOVA. Reacting to the appeals sent to it
by Moldova repeatedly since the autumn of 1991, the UN has sent
a fact-finding team which arrived there on 27 June. The three-person
team appointed by Secretary-General Boutros Ghali is led by the
Brazilian, Gilberto Schlittler. (Vladimir Socor)

MOLDOVAN OFFICIALS OPPOSE UNIFICATION WITH ROMANIA. Four senior
government and parliamentary officials representing Moldova at
the Crans-Montana Forum on European Integration were cited by
an RFE/RL correspondent on 24 and 25 June as refuting the "myth
concerning Moldova's alleged desire to become part of Romania.
That is completely untrue...Moldovans want complete independence
and freedom. At most 5% of our population have an interest in
an association with Romania...Moldova struggled for its freedom
and we will never give it away to anyone." The officials said
that "propaganda" about unification comes mainly from "Romanians
who have imperialistic designs" and from Moscow's "disinformation
campaign designed to mislead Russians and justify outside intervention
in Moldova." While fearing a Russian invasion, the Moldovan officials
said that "the Romanians were colonizers too. No one should forget
that." (Vladimir Socor)

UKRAINE WARNS MOLDOVA. The Ukrainian government issued a statement
on 27 June expressing its "considerable concern" over the armed
clashes in Moldova, ITAR-TASS and Western news agencies reported.
Kiev also warned Moldova that it would have to pick up the bill
for thousands of refugees streaming into Ukraine and for the
damage sustained by the Ukrainian economy as a result of the
fighting near its border. Belarus also called for an immediate
end to the fighting between Moldova and the separatists in the
"Dniester Republic." (Roman Solchanyk)

RUSSIA PASSES DEFENSE LAW. Both Interfax and ITAR-TASS reported
on 26 June that the Russian parliament had passed the law "on
defense," which is to establish the broad legal basis for the
Russian armed forces. The parliament instructed the relevant
organs and agencies to prepare related bills on, among other
things, the status of servicemen, military pensions, and the
military budget. On the same day, however, "Vesti" reported that
the law had run into problems in the Council of Nationalities,
where some delegates reportedly complained that the law failed
to protect citizens adequately from the security organs. Details
of the debates were not available. (Stephen Foye)

COMMANDER OF RUSSIAN BORDER TROOPS PROFILED. Moscow News (no.
26) profiled the new deputy minister of security in charge of
the Russian border troops, Vladimir Shlyakhtin. Born in 1940
in Rostov oblast, Shlyakhtin is a graduate of the Frunze Military
Academy and the Academy of the General Staff. During the Afghanistan
War, he was commander of the Central Asian border defense and
took part in many clashes with the Mujahaddin. Before coming
to his current position, Shlyakhtin worked on the interdepartmental
committee which evaluated the state boundaries of Russia. (Chris
Hummel)

NEW PROJECTION OF RUSSIAN BUDGET DEFICIT FOR 1992. The projected
deficit in the Russian budget for 1992 is now set at 686.5 billion
rubles, Reuters of 26 June reported, citing a draft law circulated
in parliament that day. The new figure represents a steep rise
on the 398.9 billion rubles projected earlier in June and the
245 billion rubles forecast in March. The increase is believed
to be due primarily to inflation which the government apparently
envisages as rising to over 1000% in 1992. The draft law is reported
to provide for foreign and domestic credits to cover part of
the deficit. (Keith Bush)

SCENARIOS FOR DEFICIT. The program for deepening the economic
reforms (the document on which current discussions in the Russian
government are based) provides some background to this report.
It sets out alternative scenarios for the 1992 budget but avoids
giving a full set of figures for projected GNP and budget revenue
and expenditure in current prices. Its two main revenue schemes
and two main expenditure plans produce four alternative scenarios
for the budget deficit as a percentage of GNP. These range from
3.4% to 11.3%. The figure cited is 5.1% of an implied projected
current-price GNP of 13.4 trillion rubles. In principle, these
figures include federal and local budgets and off-budget funds.
(Philip Hanson)

"OSTANKINO" GIVES AIR TIME TO OPPOSITION. Representatives of
opposition groups of Russia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan conducted
a live dialogue on the "Ostankino" TV channel on 28 June. The
Russian side was represented by a member of the Russian nationalist
opposition to Yeltsin's leadership, Gennadii Zyuganov, and chief
editor of the newspaper Den, Aleksandr Prokhanov; the Ukrainian
side was represented by a leading member of "Rukh," Aleksandr
Lavrinovich, and the Kyrgyz sideby deputy chairman of the Democratic
Movement of Kyrgyzstan, Zhypar Zhykeev. The participants in the
program discussed what forces constitute opposition in their
respective countries and what methods the opposition should use
in its political activities. The leadership of "Ostankino" denied
that in permitting the program, the company had given in to demands
by Russian nationalist and pro-Communist opposition groups which
earlier this month organized picketing of "Ostankino" TV center.
(Vera Tolz)

GERMAN CREDITS FOR BELARUS. Germany has agreed in principle to
extend $325 million worth of credit to Belarus to boost trade
between the two countries, ITAR-TASS reported on 26 June. An
official from the economics ministry in Bonn said that Germany
was prepared to increase the sum. (Roman Solchanyk)

AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT VOWS TO RETAKE LOST TERRITORY. Speaking
in Istanbul on 27 June, Azerbaijani President Abulfaz Elchibey
vowed that Azerbaijan would recapture within two months all territory
in Nagorno-Karabakh lost to Armenian forces earlier this year,
Western agencies reported. He excluded any degree of political
autonomy for the Armenian population of Karabakh, where fighting
between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces is deadlocked. On 28
June the Iranian daily newspaper Abrar denounced Elchibey as
a demagogue hostile to Iran and a proponent of unification of
Northern and Iranian Azerbaijan, Western agencies reported. (Liz
Fuller)

AZERBAIJAN TO INTRODUCE OWN CURRENCY. Azerbaijan intends to introduce
its own currency the "manat" possibly by mid-July, Western agencies
reported on 27 June quoting the Turan news agency. The manat
will be printed in France; one manat will initially be worth
ten rubles. Azerbaijani First Deputy Finance Minister Tofik Guseinov
was quoted as saying that the new currency would help offset
critical cash shortages and would soften the impact if Russia
decides to introduce its own currency. (Liz Fuller)

CASH SHIPMENT TO KAZAKHSTAN. According to a statement of Kazakhstan's
Vice President Daulet Sembaev, as reported by Russian TV, on
June 26 Kazakhstan expected an air shipment from Russia of 4
billion rubles. The cash shortage in the republic, as in other
Central Asian states, has contributed significantly to social
unrest. It was announced 22 May that Kazakhstan would soon issue
its own currency, the "tanga." (Cassandra Cavanaugh)

FURTHER FIGHTING IN TAJIKISTAN. According to Moscow news reports
on 27 June, more than 100 people were killed during an attack
on a kolkhoz in Vakhsh Raion of Kurgan-Tyube Oblast by members
of what the reports identified as the "Islamic opposition." The
same day, the headquarters of the Islamic Renaissance Party in
Dushanbe denied that the party had any involvement in what had
happened, according to "Vesti." OMON forces had reportedly succeeded
in stopping the fighting. Apparently inhabitants of the kolkhoz
and a nearby sovkhoz were on opposing sides of the ongoing political,
regional and ethnic disputes that have reduced Tajikistan to
a state of near civil war. On 29 June, TSN television news reported
that the Tajik Ministry of Internal Affairs was denying reports
of the number of persons killed in the gun battle, claiming that
no more than 10 had been killed. (Bess Brown)

CENTRAL AND EATERN EUROPE

BELGRADE RALLY CALLS FOR MILOSEVIC RESIGNATION Over 100,000 people
turned out in central Belgrade on 28 June to call for the resignation
of Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, with some estimates
of the crowd size ranging up to 400,000. The rally was organized
by Vuk Draskovic, leader of the opposition Serbian Renewal Movement,
and was attended by Patriarch Pavle of the Serbian Orthodox Church
and Crown Prince Alexander Karadjordjevic. He is the pretender
to the throne and returned from exile on 27 June. Draskovic called
for the formation of a government of national salvation, to include
Albanian, Hungarian, and Muslim representatives of Serbia's ethnic
minorities. Draskovic also said that "Serbs must show great repentance"
for much of the bloodshed in the former Yugoslavia. "There is
no other way. The other way is the peace of the graveyard." Several
thousand protesters camped out overnight, vowing to remain on
the streets until Milosevic is ousted. Der Spiegel suggested
that the opposition and the army had agreed in advance that the
latter would not intervene. (Gordon Bardos)



MITTERRAND PAYS SURPRISE VISIT TO SARAJEVO. International media
reported on 28 June that the French president unexpectedly went
to the Bosnian capital by air via Split. He was warmly recieved
by his hosts, and said he had come to "open a door" so that relief
supplies might start coming into the city freely. Continued gunfire
has, however, prevented food and medicine from arriving. Some
observers applauded Mitterrand's move as a brave act designed
to break a logjam, while others suggested it was electioneering
and had not been coordinated with Paris' EC partners. The EC
had earlier agreed in Lisbon to support UN-sponsored military
action in Bosnia, and the 29 June Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
adds that Italy has now said it will send troops. News agencies
quote Newsweek's latest issue as claiming that Saudi Arabia has
offered to fund such a mission. (Patrick Moore)



PRELIMINARY RESULTS IN ESTONIA. Early reports from Estonia say
that the country's constitutional referendum held on 28 June
has passed. According to Estonian Radio today (29 June), some
60% of all eligible voters turned out, thus making the referendum
a valid vote (50% was needed). Excluding results from Tallinn,
which are not yet in, voters overwhelmingly approved the draft
constitution, with the percentage of "yes" votes ranging from
87% in central Estonia to 94% in mostly Russian Kohtla-Jarve.
Passage of the second question--on whether non-citizens who had
applied for citizenship before 5 June may vote in the fall parliamentary
elections--is still up in the air, with approval hovering around
50%. Results from Tallinn seem likely to determine the second
question, since one-third of the country's population lives in
the capital city. (Riina Kionka)



BALTIC COUNCIL PREPARES FOR CSCE SUMMIT... Meeting in Tallinn
on 26 June, the chairmen of the three supreme councils--Arnold
Ruutel of Estonia, Anatolijs Gorbunovs of Latvia, and Vytautas
Landsbergis of Lithuania--and other top leaders focused on the
most pressing common issue: the continued presence of ex-USSR
troops in their countries. They discussed issues to be raised
at the upcoming CSCE summit, but did not agree on a common stance.
Some Baltic leaders have threatened to refuse to sign CSCE documents
unless they gain a Russian commitment ot a troop withdrawal timetable.
David Johnson, chief British delegate to the CSCE said Russia
would not agree to a direct mention of its troops in the final
text of any agreement in Helsinki, Western and Baltic media reported
on 26 June. (Dzintra Bungs)

...AND ADOPTS FOUR DOCUMENTS. The first of four documents adopted
by the Baltic Council is an appeal to the G-7 states for their
help in promoting a prompt withdrawal of Russian troops from
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Stressing that the troops have
no legal basis for remaining in the Baltic States, the document
asks for financial aid specifically to help speed up their withdrawal.
The second document expresses concern about statements of Russian
officials that Russia can use force against those who attack
its military personnel and their families. The third statement,
addressed to the president of Moldova, stressed the need for
a political settlement of the Dniestr conflict. The fourth document
proposed forming an international commission to study ecological
problems caused by the burial of toxic combat substances in the
Baltic Sea, Baltfax reported on 26 June. (Dzintra Bungs)



POLAND'S PAWLAK LOSES COALITION PARTNERS... Conflict over the
composition of the cabinet led to the collapse of the partnership
between Prime Minister Waldemar Pawlak and the "little coalition"
(Democratic Union, Liberal Democratic Congress, and "Big Beer")
on 26 June. The "little coalition" had demanded a commanding
role in the government, or none at all. Coalition leader Tadeusz
Mazowiecki had proposed that the Liberal Democrats set economic
policy and the Democratic Union supervise the political ministries,
with Jan Krzysztof Bielecki and Jacek Kuron as deputy prime ministers.
Pawlak, in contrast, had wanted his own Polish Peasant Party
in charge of the economic posts. Pawlak also expressed skepticism
about Bielecki's return to government, noting to PAP on 25 June
that "firms are hard to run when the former director becomes
the deputy director." (Louisa Vinton)

... AND PUSHES ON ALONE. After the collapse of negotiations with
the "little coalition," Pawlak announced he would assemble a
cabinet on his own, in consultation with President Lech Walesa,
and present it to the Sejm on 1 July. Ministerial candidates
would be chosen on the basis of qualifications rather than party
affiliation, he said. Even with presidential backing, Pawlak's
chances of winning the Sejm's approval now appear slim. The Warsaw
rumor mill is predicting that Walesa's next candidate to make
the attempt will be Henryk Goryszewski, from the right-wing Christian
National Union. Public impatience with the stalemate may be growing.
According to poll results reported by PAP on 27 June, 60% believe
the Sejm is incapable of forming a stable and effective government
and 46% want new elections. (Louisa Vinton)

CZECHOSLOVAK POLITICAL UPDATE. The Czechoslovak federal government
resigned on 26 June to make way for a new cabinet following parliamentary
elections in early June. President Vaclav Havel accepted the
resignations of Prime Minister Marian Calfa and his cabinet,
news agencies report. But Havel asked the government to stay
on until a new cabinet is appointed in the next few days. Under
an agreement reached between the election winners - the Civic
Democratic Party (Czech lands) and the Movement for a Democratic
Slovakia, the new government will have 10 members: five Czechs
and five Slovaks. Jan Strasky, now Czech Vice Premier, is considered
the top candidate for the post of prime minister. Today the Czech
parliament, at its constituent assembly, is to elect the presidium,
parliament chairman and deputy chairman, as well as the chairmen
and deputy chairmen of parliamentary committees. The two houses
of the federal parliament and the Slovak parliament held their
constituent sessions last week. (Barbara Kroulik)

HAVEL REGRETS BAVARIA'S REJECTION OF TREATY. Havel said he regrets
that Bavaria opposed the comprehensive Czechoslovak-German Treaty
when it was ratified by Germany's upper house of parliament on
26 June. Bavaria was the only German state to oppose the treaty,
which was signed in February. Havel said in his regular radio
talk on 28 June that this does not contribute to good neighborly
relations between Bavaria and the Czech Republic. Bavaria criticized
it for not clearing up the questions of the Sudeten Germans'
property. Havel said Bavaria's action showed the unpreparedness
of the West for the fall of communism in Eastern Europe. Havel
also criticized the publication in a Czech periodical of unofficial
lists of collaborators with the former secret police. He said
unofficial lists are dubious. (Barbara Kroulik)

GREECE WINS POINT OVER MACEDONIA. The EC agreed at its Lisbon
meeting on 27 June to recognize Macedonia, but only under the
condition that it take on a new name that excludes the word "Macedonia."
The European media widely saw this as a victory for Athens, which
argues that the word is part of the Greek cultural patrimony.
Macedonian President Kiro Gligorov said that the EC decision
offends his people's feelings and dignity, news agencies reported
on 28 June. (Patrick Moore)

LITHUANIA RECOGNIZES MACEDONIA, BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA. On 25 June
the Lithuanian Supreme Council passed resolutions recognizing
the Republics of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Macedonia, the Lithuanian
parliament Office of Public Affairs reports. The resolutions
noted that "international political and diplomatic assistence
will increase stability in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Macedonia"
and instructed the Lithuanian government to establish diplomatic
relations with the two states. (Saulius Girnius)

LITHUANIA PASSES LAWS ON STATE BORDERS. On 25 June the Lithuanian
Supreme Council passed a "Law on State Borders" and a "Law on
the Defense of State Borders," the Lithuanian parliament Office
of Public Affairs reports. The first law defines the country's
borders on land, sea, and air, officially determining transit
requirements, outlaws the transport of nuclear weapons and other
weapons of mass destruction through Lithuania, and allows for
the transport of foreign troops through Lithuania only as agreed
in international agreeements reached by Lithuania. The second
law determines the nature of border defense, officially organizing
the state border defense department and regulating its activities.
(Saulius Girnius)

RUSSIA RETURNS KGB FILES TO LITHUANIA. On 26 June Russian officials
handed over to the Lithuanian government about 50,000 KGB files
containing information on Lithuanians exiled to Siberia by the
Soviet authorities, those persecuted by the KGB, and background
data on those who fled to West Germany, Western agencies report.
Lithuanian Sajudis chairman historian Juozas Tumelis said that
the files, confiscated by the Soviet government after Lithuania
declared its independence and later taken over by Russia, arrived
in Vilnius by truck from Ulyanovsk. The files are only a small
part of the total Lithuanian is trying to get back from Russia.
(Saulius Girnius)

ANTALL URGES WEST TO BOOST ROLE IN EASTERN EUROPE. In an interview
with the The Wall Street Journal of 26/27 June, Hungarian Prime
Minister Jozsef Antall urged Western Europe and the US to take
a more forceful role in halting the disintegration of the East
European countries. Antall said that failure by the West to actively
support restructuring, especially in the former Soviet Union,
"could lead to the fall or isolation of the forces of reform...posing
an enormous danger for Europe and the whole world." He warned
that "uncontrollable armies" left behind by the collapse of the
communist system are the single most threatening factor, and
stressed that NATO "was never so important as it is today." (Edith
Oltay)

ATTALI IN BULGARIA. On 27 June the president of the European
Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Jacques Attali,
paid a one-day visit to Bulgaria. According to Western agencies,
Attali declared that the EBRD would lend Bulgaria $65 million
to modernize its telecommunications and another $65 million to
improve the road system. He also made a trip to Kozloduy, Bulgaria's
heavily criticized nuclear power plant. Attali expressed doubts
about the possibility of making the current plant safe, saying
it might prove less expensive to replace the power units than
to reconstruct them. (Kjell Engelbrekt)

ZHELEV ON BLACK SEA COOPERATION. Returning from Istanbul, where
representatives of eleven states had signed a declaration on
Black Sea economic cooperation, Bulgarian President Zhelyu Zhelev
told national TV on 26 June that he was content with the meeting.
Zhelev said the agreement could help to improve regional economic
relations--on a downturn since the dissolution of Comecon--and
also permit movement on other issues. According to Zhelev, Bulgaria
offered to host a special working group dealing with environmental
problems in the Black Sea. (Kjell Engelbrekt)

CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT IN THE 27 SEPTEMBER ELECTIONS NOMINATED
IN ROMANIA. A congress of the Democratic National Salvation Front
(DNSF) has predictably endorsed President Ion Iliescu for re-election,
Romanian and foreign media reported on 27 June. At the same time,
Romania's main opposition group, the Democratic Convention, voted
to name Emil Constantinescu, the 53-year-old rector of Bucharest
University, as its candidate for president. A group of 67 electors
chose Constantinescu from a list of five candidates, including,
besides Constantinescu, Ion Ratiu, Nicolae Manolescu, Sergiu
Cunescu, and Nicu Stancescu. (Crisula Stefanescu)

[As of 1200 CET]

Compiled by Carla Thorson & Patrick Moore



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