No. 91, 13 May 1992

Successor States to the USSR

DEMONSTRATIONS IN DUSHANBE, FIGHTING IN KULYAB. Moscow and Western
agencies reported on 12 May that thousands of demonstrators in
Dushanbe were continuing to demand the resignation of Tajik president
Rakhman Nabiev. A leader of the Islamic Renaissance Party, the
supporters of which have been the most vocal in demanding Nabiev's
resignation, told the demonstrators that Nabiev should stay on
in the name of national unity, although he had no moral right
to rule. Tajikistan's highest-ranking Muslim clergyman, Kazi
Akbar Turadzhonzoda, was quoted by ITAR-TASS as saying that Nabiev
represents the old thinking, but his departure might cause the
disintegration of the country. Moscow and Western agencies also
reported that 6 members of the opposition were killed in the
town of Kulyab when fighting erupted between two opposition groups
and then spread to include Nabiev supporters. (Bess Brown)

NATIONAL ASSEMBLY BEING FORMED IN TAJIKISTAN. A Popular Assembly
is being formed in Tajikistan to act as the country's interim
legislature until a new one can be elected in December, Moscow
agencies reported on 12May. Members of the opposition are to
occupy half the seats in the interim assembly. Shodmon Yusuf,
chairman of the Democratic Party, said on Tajik TV that leaders
of the opposition parties had chosen to stay out of the new government
in order to avoid charges that they had grabbed power. ITAR-TASS
later reported that Deputy Chairman of the Islamic Renaissance
Party Usmon Dovlat has been appointed a vice-premier. (Bess Brown)


KRAVCHUK AND OTHERS TO SKIP CIS SUMMIT. Ukrainian President Leonid
Kravchuk told reporters upon arrival in Kiev on 12 May that he
would not be in Tashkent for the CIS summit that opens on 15
May, Radio Ukraine and Western news agencies reported. Kravchuk
said that his scheduled meeting with Finland's president, Mauno
Koivisto, prevented him from attending the summit. A Ukrainian
deputy foreign minister noted that Kravchuk's decision reflects
Ukraine's pessimism about the future of the CIS. The leaders
of Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are also reported planning
to stay away. (Roman Solchanyk)

PLANS FOR RUSSIAN MILITARY OUTLINED. Lieutenant General Viktor
Barynkin, the deputy chief of Operations of the CIS High Command,
told a Russian parliamentary hearing on 12 May that 1.5 trillion
rubles would be needed prior to the year 2000 to form Russia's
armed forces. According to a Postfactum account of his testimony,
Barynkin said that the Russian military would be based on three
new concepts: the armed forces would be used exclusively to defend
the territory and independence of Russia and to fulfill international
agreements; no attempt would be made to place strong forces along
all frontiers; "mobile attack divisions" would be formed to more
efficiently utilize the country's combat potential. Barynkin
listed three urgent programs: to withdraw Russian troops from
adjoining states; to ensure the "social security" of servicemen;
and to destroy over 100 obsolete nuclear submarines. He estimated
these tasks would require some 900 billion rubles. (Doug Clarke)


ARMY IN GERMANY TO FORM CORE OF RUSSIAN FORCES. Sergei Stepashin,
the chairman of the Defense and Security Committee of the Russian
Parliament, has stated that the Western Group of Forces (WGF)--the
former Soviet troops in what was East Germany--would comprise
the bulk of Russia's armed forces. In an interview with Interfax
on 12 May Stepashin said that it would therefore be desirable
to suspend the process of disbanding some of these units as they
are withdrawn from Germany. He revealed that the committee had
worked out a plan of organizational measures to transform the
WGF into the Russian armed forces and they would be coordinating
this plan with the government and the CIS General Staff. (Doug
Clarke)

BELARUS MILITARY DISTRICT ABOLISHED. Mayak Radio on 12 May reported
from Moscow that the Russian government had decided to abolish
the Belarus military district. The report said that the units
in that district that were not part of the CIS Strategic Forces
had been transferred to the command of the Belarus Defense Ministry.
Postfactum the same day quoted Lieutenant General Viktor Barynkin
of the CIS High Command as telling a Russian parliamentary hearing
that the planned reorganization of the armed forces also envisaged
the liquidation of six out of the seven military districts in
lRussia itself. (Doug Clarke)

KHASBULATOV NOT RESISTING DISSOLUTION OF CONGRESS. The speaker
of the Russian parliament, Ruslan Khasbulatov, has given up resistance
to the proposed dissolution of the Congress. In an article published
in Rossiiskaya gazeta on 12 May, he called for the adoptation
of a new constitution which would abolish the Congress but establish
a smaller working parliament and a strong parliamentary presidium.
He also refrained from his earlier demands to change the government
but stated that, in future, only the parliament will be responsible
for economic reform. (Alexander Rahr)

MEETING OF REGIONAL LEADERS OF RUSSIA ON FOREIGN TRADE ACTIVITIES.
The Russian Foreign Ministry held a meeting in Moscow on 12May
with leaders of Russia's republics and regions to discuss the
foreign policy and foreign trade activities which the federal
treaty empowers them to conduct, "Vesti" reported. It was stated
that bureaus of the Russian Foreign Ministry had already been
opened in some regions, and offices of the Ministry of Foreign
Economic Ties should also be set up to exercise careful control
over foreign trade and foreign currency revenues. First Deputy
Minister of Foreign Affairs F. Shelov-Kovedyaev said that some
regions were being sold short because of their inexperience.
Many leaders of the regions said, however, that they did not
want tutelage, regarding it as a new turn of the screw of centralization.
(Ann Sheehy)

ABDULATIPOV ON THE FEDERAL TREATY. Ramazan Abdulatipov, chairman
of the Council of Nationalities of the Russian parliament, said
at a meeting on experts on drawing up mechanisms for the implementation
of the federal treaty in Moscow on 12 May that the treaty should
not be allowed to be "a cover for separatism or for increasing
the centralism of the federal bureaucracy," which could reduce
to nil the autonomy of the republics, krais, and oblasts, ITAR-TASS
reported. Abdulatipov commented in this connection that at present
"not one Russian ministry is federal either in its make-up or
in the work it conducts. (Ann Sheehy)

SOCIAL-DEMOCRATS GET NEW CHAIRMAN. The Social-Democratic Party
of Russia has selected the 62-year-old political scientist Boris
Orlov as its new chairman, ITAR-TASS reported on 12 May. The
deputy chairman of the Social-Democratic Party, Oleg Rumyantsev,
said that the party will work to increase its membership. The
Social-Democrats want to support Yeltsin's reforms but argue
against the dissolution of the Congress. Instead they propose
the strengthening of the legal base of the present Supreme Soviet.
(Alexander Rahr)

KGB INFILTRATION INTO EMIGRE CIRCLES. An unidentified former
KGB officer revealed in an interview with New Times (no.14) that
the KGB had infiltrated the entire Soviet emigre community. He
stated that by planting agents in the Russian People's Labor
Alliance (NTS) and the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists
(OUN), the KGB actually served its own interests because it provided
work for itself. He charged that nearly all leaders of these
organizations worked for the KGB. He alleged that agents were
selected even before World War II and then perfectly integrated
into the emigre milieu. He said that if the KGB had not reinforced
the NTS with its agents, the NTS would have collapsed a long
time ago. (Alexander Rahr)

CHUBAIS ON PRIVATIZATION PLANS. At a Moscow news conference on
12 May, Anatolii Chubais disclosed further details of Russia's
plans for privatization in 1992 and 1993, Western agencies reported.
Workers will be given vouchers enabling them to buy shares in
their factories. Chubais welcomed foreign investment but suggested
that a special investment rate of exchange will be retained,
despite last week's announcement of a single rate of exchange
for the ruble. Foreign investment will still be restricted in
19 key economic sectors, including oil, gas, gold, mining, and
some defense industries. Separate auctions may be held for foreigners
at which minimum prices would be set. (Keith Bush)

OIL TAX SLOWS JOINT VENTURE. The two Western partners in an oil
exploration joint venture announced that they are reducing their
investment from $13 million to $4 million a month, Western agencies
reported on 12 May. Anglo-Suisse and Phibro are making the cut
in the "White Knights" venture in Tyumen because of the Russian
government's oil tax which amounts to $5 a barrel. (Keith Bush)


IMPROMPTU MEETING ON BLACK SEA FLEET. Russian and Ukrainian delegations
held an impromptu meeting in Sevastopol on 12 May regarding the
future of the Black Sea Fleet, but apparently made little progress.
ITAR-TASS had announced that a delegation of Russian lawmakers
was visiting the fleet headquarters to prepare for the second
round of talks, scheduled for later in the month in Dagomys,
Russia. Radio Mayak later reported that a Ukrainian delegation
had arrived. Following their meeting, the reports said that the
two sides had reiterated their previous positions. (Doug Clarke)


PROTESTS OVER CRIMEA. Activists of "Rukh" and the Ukrainian National
Assembly (UNA) organized a demonstration at the Ukrainian Supreme
Council building against the secession of the Crimea, "Novosti-1"
reported on 12 May. The parliament is scheduled to discuss the
Crimean situation on 13 May with the participation of the Presidium
of the Crimean parliament, its chairman, and representatives
of the Crimean Tatar Mejlis. (Roman Solchanyk)

REFERENDUM APPROVED IN BELARUS. The campaign to hold a referendum
in Belarus on the dissolution of parliament and the holding of
new elections has ended successfully, the "Panarama" news program
reported on 11 May. Of the 440,000 signatures gathered, 383,000
were judged to be valid by the Central Referendum Commission,
thereby clearing the way for the referendum. It now remains for
parliament to set a referendum date. (Roman Solchanyk)

UN TO SEND NEW FACT-FINDING MISSION TO NAGORNO-KARABAKH. The
UN Security Council voted at a closed session on 12 May to send
another fact-finding mission to Nagorno-Karabakh, but declined
Armenia's request for the dispatch of peacekeeping forces to
the area. Azerbaijan's UN envoy Hassan Hassanov had objected
to the deployment of peacekeeping troops in Karabakh but called
for stationing them along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. A
UN spokesman told RFE-RL that UN Secretary-General Boutros-Ghali
continues to regard the CSCE process as the most promising forum
for achieving a settlement of the conflict. (Jeff Endrst/Liz
Fuller)

FIGHTING CONTINUES ALONG ARMENIAN-AZERBAIJANI BORDER. At least
nine people were killed on 12 May as Azerbaijani troops shelled
virtually the whole length of the Armenian Azerbaijani border,
ITAR-TASS reported. There were further fatalities in an overnight
artillery attack by Armenian forces on the town of Mardakert
in north-eastern Karabakh, according to a Western news agency
report quoting the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry. While the Azerbaijani
Foreign Ministry has issued a statement renouncing the Tehran
accord of 8 May, Interfax on 12 May quoted an Armenian Presidential
spokesman as arguing that the accord was still valid in that
it provides for no specific mechanism for restoring stability
to the area and contains no requirement that a ceasefire go into
effect immediately. (Liz Fuller)

DEMONSTRATIONS IN BAKU. Armed supporters of ousted President
Ayaz Mutalibov besieged the parliament building in Baku for several
hours on 12 May and withdrew only after the National Council
agreed to their demand to convene an extraordinary Supreme Soviet
session on 14 May to debate the Armenian occupation of Shusha,
Western agencies reported. Also on 12 May, Radio Rossiya reported
that Azerbaijani Presidential candidate Nizami Suleimanov, the
chairman of the Democratic Union of the Intelligentsia of Azerbaijan,
announced that he was suspending his candidacy because of the
gravity of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.(Liz Fuller)

AKAEV TO CHINA. Kyrgyz president Askar Akaev arrived in Beijing
for a five-day official visit, Moscow and Chinese agencies reported.
In an interview on Radio Mayak, Akaev explained that Kyrgyzstan
sees China as a major source of trade opportunities and inexpensive
consumer goods, and hopes to sell non-ferrous metals to the Chinese
and interest them in helping develop the hydroelectric dams on
the Naryn River, electricity from which could be exported to
northern China. Akaev is missing the Commonwealth summit later
in the week in order to make the China trip. (Bess Brown)

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

BOSNIA UPDATE. Radio Sarajevo reports that Bosnian Serb leaders
have announced a 5-day unilateral ceasefire to take effect at
6:00 a.m. on 13May. Serbs hope the ceasefire will convince the
EC to resume peace talks on Bosnia-Herzegovina with the republic's
Serb, Muslim, and Croat leaders. Bosnian Serbs also announced
that they are forming their own army under Gen. Ratko Mladic,
currently commander of federal army's 2nd district in Sarajevo.
Heavy fighting continued throughout Bosnia-Herzegovina with Bosnian
forces claiming their first success against Serb forces backed
federal troops in the area around Bosanski Brod. Two international
humanitarian organizations, the ICRC and UNHCR, announced on
12 May they will maintain relief operations in the republic.
UNHCR special envoy Jose-Marie Mendilice, a 14-year veteran of
Third-World conflicts, described the war in Bosnia as more horrific
than anything he's experienced yet. Radio Sarajevo reports that
the Turkish Red Crescent Society is sending 1.4 tons of medicine
to Bosnia. (Milan Andrejevich)

CSCE EXCLUDES YUGOSLAVIA FROM CRISIS DECISIONS. The CSCE announced
on 12 May that it is excluding the Yugoslav delegation from further
talks on the Bosnian crisis until the end of June. This is the
first time the CSCE has isolated a member nation. The CSCE also
demanded that Belgrade either withdraw all federal troops from
Bosnia-Herzegovina or disband its forces. The decision was described
as a compromise between most member states, which were demanding
Yugoslavia's suspension, and Russia, which had refused to go
along with the proposal. The agreement did not use the word "suspension,"
but the measure will be reconsidered on 30 June. (Milan Andrejevich)


US RECALLS AMBASSADOR; EC CONSIDERS SANCTIONS. The State Department
announced on 12 May that it is recalling the US ambassador, Warren
Zimmerman, from Belgrade for con-sultations. Spokeswoman Margaret
Tutwiler said the action was taken in coordination with the EC,
whose members withdrew their ambassadors on 11 May. The EC announced
that it is considering stiff economic sanctions. The chairman
of the EC conference on Yugoslavia, Lord Carrington, expressed
gloom about a resumption of EC-mediated talks. He told the BBC
that "it looks even more unlikely that in the present circumstances
a peace conference could be successful." Austria also recalled
its ambassador, and the country's foreign minister said on Austrian
TV last night that short of "massive military intervention,"
total diplomatic isolation and tough economic sanctions may be
the only thing left to do to stop Serbian aggression. (Milan
Andrejevich)

MITTERRAND TO BALTIC STATES. On 13 May French President François
Mitterrand, accom-panied by Foreign Minister Roland Dumas and
Trade and Industry Minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn, will begin
a tour of the Baltic States beginning in Lithuania, Radio Lithuania
reports. He will fly to Tallinn on the 14th and Riga on the 15th.
(Saulius Girnius)

WALESA ACCEPTS INVITATION TO MOSCOW. On 12 May Lech Walesa accepted
an invitation from Russian President Boris Yeltsin to visit Moscow
on 22 May. Presidential spokesman Andrzej Drzycimski said the
visit might be extended by up to two days. In an invitation to
Walesa issued on 9May, Yeltsin proposed that the two leaders
sign a long-delayed friendship treaty and an agreement on the
withdrawal of former Soviet troops from Poland. According to
Western and Polish media, Walesa had not accepted previous invitations
from Yeltsin because of lack of progress in negotiations on troop
pullouts. (Wladyslaw Minkiewicz)

BALTS ASK NATO HELP IN TROOP WITH-DRAWAL. On 11 May Lithuanian
Foreign Minister Algirdas Saudargas and his counterparts Jaan
Manitsky of Estonia and Janis Jurkans of Latvia held talks with
senior officials at NATO headquarters, Reuters reports. They
made another appeal for help in removing the more than 100,000
former Soviet army troops from their territories. NATO sources
said that the alliance would pass on requests for financial aid
to individual member states once more details were known, but
said NATO as an organization is unlikely to get involved in the
dispute. (Saulius Girnius)

13 VEHICLES LEAVE ESTONIA. A convoy of 13military vehicles left
Estonia for Russia on 12May, BNS reports. There are an estimated
25,000 former Soviet troops remaining in Estonia. Meanwhile,
consultations on beginning serious troop withdrawal talks continued
on 12 May between Estonian and Russian negotiators in Moscow,
BNS reports. (Riina Kionka)

LATVIA REJECTS MOSCOW'S ATTACKS AGAINST ITS REPRESENTATIVE. The
Latvian Foreign Ministry has prepared a statement re-jecting
the recent criticism leveled by the Russian Foreign Ministry
against Janis Peters, Latvia's representative in Moscow. Russian
Foreign Ministry spokesman Sergei Yastrzhembsky accused Peters
of overstepping diplomatic norms after Peters stated that the
Latvian-Russian talks on the withdrawal of ex-Soviet troops from
Latvia had yielded no tangible results so far. The Latvian Foreign
Ministry argues that Peters was correct in his assessment of
the situation and notes that Russia has still not produced a
timetable for the troop pullout, and is avoiding a discussion
of issues related to compensation for environmental damage resulting
from USSR military presence in Latvia, Diena reported on 12 May.
(Dzintra Bungs)

ROMANIAN JOURNALISTS ADMIT SECURI-TATE TIES. Amid much public
debate over whether the names of former Securitate informers
should be publicized, Florin Gabriel Marculescu and Sorin Rosca
Stanescu, two journalists from Romania libera, a large-circulation
independent daily, acknowledged on 11 May that they had collaborated
with the former secret police beginning in 1975. The news editor
of the paper, Anton Uncu, defended them in a commentary published
alongside the confessions. On 12 May, however, the paper's board
of directors voted to dismiss the two journalists, local media
said. (Mihai Sturdza)

FINANCIAL COMPENSATION FOR HUNGARIAN VICTIMS. On 12 May the Hungarian
parliament adopted a law that offers financial compensation for
those who because of political reasons were unlawfully deprived
of life or liberty between 1939 and 1989, MTI reports. Relatives
of those who lost their life as a result of unlawful sentences
handed down by Hungarian courts will be granted a one-time compensation
of 1 million forint. Monthly financial allowances will be paid
to those who were imprisoned, interned, deported, or served as
forced laborers for the Hungarian or Soviet authorities. The
amount of financial compensation depends on the length of internment
land on the age of those eligible. This is the third and last
law designed to compensate Hungarians who fell victim to the
communist regime. (Edith Oltay)

POLAND'S NEGOTIATIONS WITH IMF, LONDON CLUB. On 12 May the Finance
Ministry issued a statement saying Poland and its creditors have
expressed readiness to resume negotiations, Western and Polish
media report. Poland's commercial bank creditors want to resume
debt reduction talks as soon as Warsaw finalizes an aid agreement
with the IMF. Jeffrey Stockley, an official from the London Group
of commercial bank creditors, made a similar statement after
meeting with caretaker finance minister Andrzej Olechowski, saying
they agreed on a schedule for talks on restructuring Poland's
estimated $11.4billion commercial bank debt. Talks between Poland
and its commercial creditors were suspended a year ago when Warsaw
refused to pay $1.8 billion in interest payment arrears. (Wladyslaw
Minkiewicz)

CZECHOSLOVAK ARMS EXPORT LIST PUBLISHED. Czech TV has revealed
a confidential list of countries to which arms exports are already
banned or where Czech firms require special government dispensation.
The list includes the republics of the former Yugoslavia, South
Africa, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Palestinian organizations,
Burma, North Korea, Syria, Libya, Iran, and Cuba. (Barbara Kroulik)


NORWAY HELPS CZECHOSLOVAKIA WITH NUCLEAR PLANTS. Norwegian experts
have agreed to help improve safety at 14 Soviet-designed nuclear
reactors in Czechoslovakia. Norwegian official Helge Haernes
told the NTB news agency that Czechoslovakia has already done
a great deal to improve safety at these plants. It was the first
former East bloc country to join the Halden project, a network
of atomic safety agencies, institutes, and industries from 13
OECD member states. (Barbara Kroulik)

CZECH HEALTH CARE. A new study says that the Czech Republic's
health care system is riddled with bribery, poor hospitals, and
too many doctors who are paid too little. The study, described
as the first of its kind, was published in the Journal of the
American Medical Association on 12 May. The study was completed
in February by US physicians and Czech Health Minister Martin
Bojar. In addition to detailing shortages of medical technology
and supplies, the investigators discovered that in the past the
government also withheld or falsified data on declining health
care standards and possible environmental causes for increased
morbidity. (Barbara Kroulik)

POPULAR MOVE TO DISPERSE ESTONIAN SUPREME COUNCIL. A grass-roots
move is underway to disperse Estonia's Supreme Council and hold
elections to the new parliament in June, according to a 12 May
BNS report. After repeated attempts in the Supreme Council by
leaders of former Prime Minister Savisaar's People's Center Party
to extend voting rights to noncitizens, last week a group of
citizens suggested holding a plebiscite. The idea is supported
by a varied group of well-known moderate and conservative political
leaders, including Estonian National Independence Party Chairwoman
Lagle Parek, Savisaar government minister Endel Lippmaa, and
Supreme Council deputy and legal scholar Johannes Kass. By 12
May ballots had been sent out all over Estonia and the initiative
was gaining momentum. (Riina Kionka)

VAGNORIUS FAILS TO FIRE MINISTER, BANK CHAIRMAN. On 12 May at
a session of the Lithuanian Supreme Council, broadcast live by
Radio Lithuania, Prime Minister Gediminas Vagnorius failed to
get the parliament's approval to dismiss Energy Minister Leonas
Asmantas and Bank of Lithuania chairman Vilius Baldisius. Although
the votes for dismissing Asmantas and Baldisius were 43 to 32
with 15 abstentions and 45to 22 with 20 abstentions respectively,
they remain in their posts because the majority of the 93 deputies
registered as attending did not vote for dismissal. (Saulius
Girnius)

LEGISLATORS DISSATISFIED WITH LATVIA'S FOREIGN MINISTRY. Deputies
of the Satversme (Constitution) faction of the Latvian Supreme
Council are collecting signatures for a review of the work of
leading Foreign Ministry officials, including Foreign Minister
Janis Jurkans and counsellor Mavriks Vulfsons, Radio Riga reported
on 12 and 13 May. The ministry has also been criticized by deputies
of the People's Front faction, especially with regard to the
ministry's critical attitude toward the legislature and the ministry's
disregard for the legislature's foreign policy decisions. The
legislators were especially dissatisfied with Jurkans' criticism
of the Supreme Council in an interview in Diena on 12 May. (Dzintra
Bungs)

UDF BACKS DIMITROV. On 12 May the leading body of the UDF--the
National Coordination Council--reaffirmed its support for UDF
chairman and prime minister, Filip Dimitrov, and gave him a free
hand to reorganize his cabinet. Dimitrov has recently been subjected
to strong criticism from some UDF member organizations that are
apparently trying to take advantage of his planned government
reshuffle to strengthen their own positions. Among other things,
Dimitrov was attacked for his intention to sack defense minister
Dimitar Ludzhev, a measure that the National Coordination Council
now backs. (Kjell Engelbrekt)

ROMANIA'S PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE ON MONARCHISTS. Continuing monarchist
demonstrations throughout Romania prompted Petre Turlea of the
[pro-Iliescu] Democratic NSF Party to remind parliament on 11
May that Romania is a republic and the Constitution cannot be
altered. He intimated that Petre Roman, leader of the rival NSF
party, is currying favor with the former monarch: he said Roman
had "smiled sweetly" at ex-king Michael for having said, suggestively,
that the republic is the form of state in Romania "for the time
being." A 12 May communique from the president's office said
that broadcast and newspaper propaganda in favor of "Mr. Mihai
von Hohenzollern" is anticonstitutional and called for legal
measures. Local media carried the stories. (Mihai Sturdza)



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