No. 81, 28 April 1992

SUCCESSOR STATES TO THE USSR

CIS, BALTIC STATES PROVISIONALLY ADMITTED TO IMF, WORLD BANK.
Russia and 12 other republics of the former USSR were provisionally
admitted to the IMF and World Bank on 27 April. According to
Western reports, approval by the republics' legislatures is still
required for full admission in these organizations. For procedural
reasons, Azerbaijan's applications to both institutions were
denied, as was Turkmenistan's application for admission to the
World Bank. Both countries are likely to become provisional members
next month, however. The membership agreements will make the
former Soviet republics eligible to receive $6.5-9 billion yearly
from the IMF, and total lending from both institutions could
reach $40 billion during the next four years. The majority is
likely to go to Russia, for whom $4.5 billion in IMF and World
Bank aid was pledged by the G-7 industrialized countries on 1
April. IMF membership will also unlock other forms of G-7 largess,
including $6 billion for a ruble stabilization fund, $2.5 billion
in debt deferral, and $11 billion in government-to-government
aid. According to Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Egor Gaidar,
Russia's program with the IMF is to be worked out by the end
of May, which will hopefully allow the ruble to become convertible,
at a single exchange rate, by July. (Ben Slay)

IDDR OPPOSES RUSSIAN REFERENDUM. The International Democratic
Reform Movement (IDDR) met on 25 April to discuss events in Moldova
and Tajikistan, problems of ethnic minorities, and the outcome
of the Russian Congress of People's Deputies. Presided over by
Aleksandr Yakovlev, the meeting was attended by representatives
from all the former union republics , as reported by Russian
TV. According to ITAR-TASS, the IDDR noted the "fragile and insecure"
nature of the compromise reached between the Russian legislature
and executive. The meeting's participants noted that while the
Yeltsin government could continue to implement reforms, there
was also a danger of returning to totalitarianism if the executive
branch demanded too much authority. The IDDR disagreed with "Democratic
Russia" and the Russian branch of the DDR, which advocate holding
a referendum aimed at dissolving the Congress and electing a
constituent assembly. (Julia Wishnevsky)

KHASBULATOV IN GERMANY. The head of the Russian parliament, Ruslan
Khasbulatov, criticized the Western press for creating the wrong
impression of what occurred during the Russian Congress. At a
press conference on 27 April in Bonn--the first day of his visit
to Germany--Khasbulatov said that he has informed German politicians
about the real events at the Congress, stressing that the Russian
parliament is not opposed to reform. He noted that German politicians
also shared his view that Russia needs a socially oriented and
not purely capitalistic market approach. He further called upon
German businessmen to invest in Russia since most of the legal
barriers have been removed, ITAR-TASS reported. (Alexander Rahr)


YELTSIN'S POPULARITY STILL HIGH, ZHIRINOVSKY'S LESS SO. Were
elections for the Russian presidency held today, 60.9% of Russia's
electorate would vote for Yeltsin--up from the 57.3% who did
actually vote for him when he was elected last June. This is
the finding of a poll carried out in 19 regions of Russia last
month. But the demagogic Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who shocked the
world when he came in third in last year's presidential elections
with 7.8% of the vote, would get only 6.4% of the vote if the
elections were held today. Recording the largest increase in
public favor is Aman Tuleev, chairman of Western Siberia's Kemerovo
Oblast Soviet. Tuleev, who won 6.8% of the vote in last year's
elections, would get 13% today. The poll results were published
in Rabochaya tribuna on 24 April and summarized by ITAR-TASS
and AP. (Elizabeth Teague)

CALL FOR A STRONG RUSSIAN KGB. Russian Minister of Security Viktor
Barannikov told Radio Moscow on 27 April that Russia's primary
task is to reestablish its state security system. He argued that
the new state security organs should be placed under parliamentary
control. Barannikov also asserted that the Russian security service
would not combat specific states, but only hostile foreign intelligence
agencies. He alleged that foreign agencies are aggressively pursuing
intelligence gathering in Russia in order to learn about the
"strategic plans" of the Russian leadership in foreign, domestic,
and defense policy, as well as migration processes and interethnic
conflicts in Russia. (Alexander Rahr)

A LIBERAL VOICE IN THE RUSSIAN KGB. The chief of the Ministry
of Security's Moscow administration, Evgenii Sevostyanov, told
Vechernyaya Moskva on 16 April that the Western ideological struggle
against the former Soviet regime was justified and compared the
communist regime in Russia to fascism. He openly called for repentance
inside the KGB. Sevostyanov, who is a former associate of Andrei
Sakharov, argued that Western intelligence services should not
be prevented from gathering information on political processes
in Russia, since it is in Russia's interest for the West to be
properly informed about its democratic intentions. (Alexander
Rahr)

SMALLER RUSSIAN NAVY FORECAST. Anatolii Novikov, identified as
the chief specialist for the Russian parliament's Commission
for Defense and Security, has said that the military's plans
for the Russian Navy do not provide for enough reductions and
are unlikely to be considered by the parliament. Postfactum on
27 April reported that the military wanted to retain 100 major
warships, 200 patrol craft, 50 diesel submarines, and the same
number of nuclear ballistic-missile submarines as were in the
Soviet Navy. The agency said that the new military doctrine--still
being drafted--would give preference to ground-based strategic
nuclear forces, and would radically reduce the navy's nuclear
missiles. (Doug Clarke)

UKRAINIAN ENVOY PREDICTS NUCLEAR ARMS AGREEMENT. Ukraine's new
ambassador to the United States, Oleh Bilorus, told AP in Kiev
on 27 April that he expects a protocol to be signed between the
four strategically armed CIS states guaranteeing their joint
adherence to START. Bilorus said Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, and
Kazakhstan are "working very intensively on that very important
agreement." He further expects Ukraine to be the first country
ever to give up its long-range nuclear weapons, but he reiterated
Ukraine's demand for international verification of the destruction
of nuclear weapons transferred to Russia. If all goes well, President
Kravchuk will take the four-way agreement to Washington next
week on his official visit. (Kathy Mihalisko)

KRAVCHUK COMMENTS ON CIS. Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk
told the Italian newspaper La Stampa that the CIS would not survive
without mechanisms of control over decisions taken by its members.
At the same time, he said that Ukraine would not be better off
outside the CIS, which, although not perfect, serves as a forum
for discussion. In the course of the interview Kravchuk restated
his country's intention to become nuclear free, but raised doubts
as to guarantees for its security. Will Russia perform this function,
asked Kravchuk sarcastically. The interview was summarized by
Radio Ukraine on 28 April. (Roman Solchanyk)

HALTING BIOLOGICAL WARFARE RESEARCH. Izvestiya of 25 April discussed
a new Yeltsin edict (ukaz) on ensuring fulfillment of international
obligations in the field of chemical weapons. The edict forbids
research and development programs that contravene the convention
on bacteriological and toxin weapons. Izvestiya points out that
the USSR signed this convention in 1972 and ratified it in 1975,
but it was clearly not adhered to. The edict establishes a Committee
on Convention Problems of Chemical and Bacteriological Weapons,
whose specialists (it appears to have a staff already), say foreign
observers, should assist in monitoring programs at Kirovo, Ekaterinburg
and Sergiev Posad (ex-Zagorsk). (Philip Hanson)

HIGH COMMAND MEETS ON NON-COMBAT DEATHS. A high-level conference
attended by Shaposhnikov and the commanders of military districts,
fleets, and armies convened in Moscow on 23 April to discuss
the growing number of suicides among servicemen, according to
an ITAR-TASS report. It said that the conference was initiated
by the CIS military Committee for Personnel Work. Participants
reportedly said that over the last five years more than 4,000
non-combat deaths have occurred in the Soviet/CIS armed forces,
roughly one-fifth the result of suicide. Mothers' groups critical
of the high command have charged that some 40,000 soldiers have
died non-combat deaths over the last six years. (Stephen Foye)


MORE ON ARMY BRUTALITY. The head of a Russian presidential committee
investigating violence in army life, Anatolii Alekseev, told
newsmen on 24 April that some 300,000 Soviet soldiers have died
since the end of World War II, many at the hands of their fellow
servicemen. A Reuters report of Alekseev's remarks provided no
specifics, however, on the causes of the deaths. Alekseev did
say that 5,500 soldiers died in 1991 as a result of violence
in army life, and charged that the high command has engaged in
a cover-up of these conditions by attributing many of the deaths
to accidents. (Stephen Foye)

UKRAINIAN SPACE PROGRAM. The 23-26 April edition of The European
and the 11 April issue of Demokratychna Ukraina drew attention
to the plans of the newly created National Space Agency of Ukraine
and its General Director, Volodymyr Horbulin. According to Horbulin,
who worked under Mykhailo Kuzmich at the renowned Pivdenne plant
in Dnepropetrovsk, one of his agency's priorities is to put SS-18
missiles to use as satellite launchers. He expressed confidence
that Ukraine will ultimately gain a place in the market that
is now held by France's Ariane-4, for instance. Negotiations
are under way with Australia for Ukraine's help in building a
commercial "spaceport" at Cape York, Queensland. The National
Space Agency of Ukraine will eventually have 40 specialists on
staff. Ukraine's pool of scientific brainpower includes 1,100
"veterans of Baikonur," Horbulin boasted. (Kathy Mihalisko)

MORATORIUM ON CRIMEAN REFERENDUM PROPOSED. A research organization
in Crimea's capital Simferopol has proposed that a moratorium
of at least six months' duration be declared with regard to the
referendum planned in the peninsula, Radio Kiev reported on 27
April. The researchers argued that Crimea could be a serious
problem for the entire Black Sea zone and southern Europe. (Roman
Solchanyk)

ECONOMIC NEWS FROM BELARUS. Despite a great deal of unfinished
business, the Belarusian parliament voted on 24 April to end
its six-week-old session, apparently in order to avoid having
to take a decision on the holding of a popular referendum on
the disbanding of parliament. (The petition campaign to force
a referendum has been completed, with more than enough signatures
gathered.) The deputies managed, however, to vote on the establishment
of a 1,000-ruble minimum monthly wage for Belarus' workers, Belarusian
Radio reported. Monetary coupons, similar to those in circulation
in Ukraine, will appear in May at the rate of 1 coupon=10 rubles
as the first stage of the introduction of a national currency.
In related news, potassium mine workers in Salihorsk voted on
24 April to end their five-week-old strike but 47 enterprises
in Mahileu are threatening to walk out as of 6 May in protest
against the government. (Kathy Mihalisko)

OPPOSITION IN KAZAKHSTAN OVER PRICE CONTROLS. Karavan (Alma-Ata)
of 17 and 24 April reported on a campaign by representatives
of non-state enterprises against a draft presidential edict that
would, allegedly, regulate prices by setting a 50% rate-of-return
ceiling and would also regulate wage increases and facilitate
direct intervention in all enterprises' affairs by President
Nazarbaev's local administrators. Another report (Biznes Klub
no. 6), apparently referring to the same or a related proposal,
describes proposed controls as anti-monopoly measures and says
it is directors of large enterprises who are worried. (Philip
Hanson)

KARA-BOGAZ DAM BEING DEMOLISHED. ITAR-TASS reported on 27 April
that the controversial dam which closed off the Kara-Bogaz Gulf
from the Caspian Sea is being demolished on the order of Turkmen
President Saparmurad Niyazov. The order was announced at a conference
in Teheran attended by representatives of states bordering the
Caspian. The level of the Caspian has been rising for several
years and the sea is now flooding homes and other buildings on
its shores. Turkmenistan is undoubtedly pleased to have international
support for reversing a major ecological disaster through demolition
of the Kara-Bogaz dam. (Bess Brown)

TENSIONS CONTINUE IN DUSHANBE. Tajikistan's highest-ranking clergyman,
Kazi Akbar Turadzhonzoda, told a press conference on 27 April
that the Tajik government is responsible for worsening tensions
in Dushanbe, where opponents and supporters of the government
are continuing their demonstrations, Khovar-TASS reported. Government
supporters are demanding a special session of the Supreme Soviet
to reverse that body's decision to remove Speaker Safarali Kenzhaev,
and the opposition is protesting Kenzhaev's subsequent appointment
as head of the Tajik National Security Committee. Violence could
ensue if the two separate demonstrations were to clash. (Bess
Brown)

TURKISH TV BROADCASTS START. Turkish television broadcasts to
Azerbaijan and Central Asia began on 27 April, ITAR-TASS reported.
The broadcasts were scheduled to coincide with the start of Turkish
Prime Minister Suleyman Demirel's visit to the region. (Bess
Brown)



CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA PROCLAIMED. The parliaments of
Serbia and Montenegro, the two remaining republics of the former
Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, declared themselves
the legitimate successors of that state. The new state calling
itself the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) comprises two-fifths
of the former Yugoslav territory and less than half its population.
The flag of the FRY will continue to be the horizontal blue,
white, and red bands, but the red star has been dropped. The
main opposition parties in the two republics as well as most
ethnic Albanians boycotted the ceremonies and oppose the new
constitution. Russia and China immediately recognized the FRY,
while the US State Department indicated that it will consider
recognition only if the FRY demonstrates full respect for the
territorial integrity of the now-sovereign former Yugoslav republics
and for the rights of minorities on its own territory; moreover,
any US action will be "fully coordinated with the EC." US diplomats
as well as those from the EC countries, with the exception of
Greece, did not attend the proclamation ceremonies in Belgrade.
(Milan Andrejevich)

BOSNIAN OFFICIALS ORDER FEDERAL ARMY TO LEAVE. In separate statements
issued on 27 April Bosnia's State Presidency and government have
ordered the Serb-dominated federal army to withdraw from Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Radio Sarajevo reports that the call for an orderly withdrawal
supervised by the EC was made on the basis that Bosnia-Herzegovina
is an internationally recognized sovereign state and that the
declaration of the new FRY formally severs ties between Belgrade
and Sarajevo. The FRY constitution, moreover, stipulates that
Yugoslavia has no territorial pretensions toward "anyone in its
surrounding area." Radio Croatia commented that "the Serbian
federal army now is officially an occupation force of a foreign
power, both in Croatia and Bosnia." Meanwhile, on 27 April the
federal State Presidency instructed army leaders to comply immediately
with the new constitution and take steps to limit operations
to the territory of the FRY. (Milan Andrejevich)

POTENTIAL STUMBLING BLOCKS TO WITHDRAWAL. Some 60,000 federal
troops are stationed in Bosnia-Herzegovina, of which 80% are
said to be citizens of the republic. Bosnia's Presidency statement
said that federal army personnel are welcome to join the republic's
newly formed territorial defense forces. But after meeting with
federal officials earlier on 26 April, President Alija Izetbegovic
said the army's withdrawal would prompt most ethnic Serb soldiers
to join local Serb paramilitary groups. All recent decisions
by the Bosnian government have been made without the republic's
Serb representatives, who resigned immediately after EC and US
recognition on 6 April. Both federal defense minister Gen. Blagoje
Adzic and Gen. Milutin Kukanjac, commander of the federal military
district in Bosnia-Herzegovina, have said the withdrawal of the
army must be agreed upon by the legitimate representatives of
the republic's Muslims, Serbs, and Croats. The army has suggested
that it withdraw only from Muslim and Croat municipalities until
a political solution to the Bosnian crisis is reached. Some 55%
of the FRY's military hardware is manufactured in Bosnia-Herzegovina,
mostly located in Muslim and Croat dominated towns. (Milan Andrejevich)


EC MEDIATED BOSNIA TALKS CONTINUE. Another round of top-level
talks between the EC and leaders of Bosnia's leading Serb and
Muslim parties resumed in Lisbon on 27 April. No details were
provided, but the delegation of the leading Croat party is expected
to participate. Radio Sarajevo, however, quoted a Portuguese
official as saying that information from the Lisbon talks will
be closely guarded, and that the negotiations could "run con-tinuously
for a week if that is the only way to achieve peace in Bosnia-Herzegovina."
(Milan Andrejevich)

NATO CONTACTS WITH BULGARIA. Admiral Jeremy "Mike" Boorda, commander
of NATO's southern flank, who arrived in Bulgaria on 22 April,
told Bulgarian Radio before leaving on the 24th that he had agreed
with Chief of General Staff Gen. Lyuben Petrov to meet every
three months to exchange opinions on further cooperation. Bulgarska
armiya reported the arrival on 27 April of Gen. John Waters,
commander of British land forces, in partial fulfillment of conditions
of a bilateral agreement on inspections by British specialists.
He met with Minister of Defense Dimitar Ludzhev in Sozopol on
the Black Sea.RFE/RL reports from Sofia that Gen. Vigleik Eide,
chairman of the NATO Military Committee, is expected in Bulgaria
on 28 April. Meanwhile, on 26 April, US Vice Adm. William Owens,
commander of the Sixth Fleet, and the amphibious ship Whidbey
Island arrived in the port of Burgas. Bulgarska armiya said in
this connection that the Bulgarian navy intends to invite seven
or eight ships of NATO countries for joint maneuvers. (Rada Nikolaev)


NATO CONTACTS WITH HUNGARY. On 27 April a delegation of NATO's
Political Committee arrived in Budapest for talks with Hungarian
government officials on Hungary's security policy and relations
with the EC, MTI reports. The delegation, headed by John Kriendler,
met with Hungarian Foreign Min-ister Geza Jeszenszky. Hungarian
diplomatic circles said that the visit is important because it
gives the Hungarian government an opportunity to inform NATO
officials directly about Hungary's views on a wide range of important
issues. (Edith Oltay)

TALKS ON WITHDRAWAL OF TROOPS FROM LATVIA AND ESTONIA. On 27
April the third round of talks by groups of experts on the withdrawal
of former Soviet troops from Latvia began at the Russian Defense
Ministry in Moscow, Radio Lithuania reports. The Latvian delegation,
headed by Deputy Defense Minister Dainis Turlajs, will try to
reach an agreement on the conditions and timing of the withdrawal
of the troops and their legal status during the withdrawal period.
Adm. Feliks Gromov, First Deputy Commander of the CIS Armed Forces,
headed a group of experts that flew to Tallinn to begin talks
on 28 April with Estonian experts headed by Deputy Defense Minister
Toomas Puura that will discuss the property of former USSR troops
in Estonia. (Saulius Girnius)

REFERENDUM ON SOVIET ARMY WITHDRAWAL FROM LITHUANIA. On 27 April
the Lithuanian parliament, in a session broadcast live by Radio
Lithuania, decided by a vote of 110 to 1 with 2 ab-stentions
to hold a referendum on "the unconditional and immediate withdrawal
from the territory of the Republic of Lithuania of the former
USSR army this year and of compensation for the damage the army
has inflicted on Lithuania." By a vote of 58 to 52 the parliament
had previously decided to hold the referendum on 14 June and
not, as initially proposed, on 23 May, when a referendum on presidential
powers will be held. (Saulius Girnius)

GORBACHEV READY TO RECOGNIZE LITHUANIAN INDEPENDENCE IN JANUARY
1991? Vitalii Ignatenko, then Gorbachev's spokesman and now general
director of ITAR-TASS, recalled the tragic events of last January
in Lithuania in Novoe vremya No. 12. According to Ignatenko Gorbachev
was unaware of the seizure of the Vilnius TV tower or the number
of casulties prior to or immediately after the event, since KGB
Chairman Vladimir Kryuchkov and Vladimir Boldin, head of Gorbachev's
staff, kept the USSR president misinformed. Ignatenko admitted,
however, that the Gorbachev leadership expected something nasty
to happen in Latvia. After 14 civilians were killed by Soviet
troops, Ignatenko revealed, Aleksandr Yakovlev nearly persuaded
Gorbachev to fly to Lithuania to plead for forgiveness and, "if
necessary," even recognize the republic's independence. Apparently
opposition from his KGB bodyguards was the only thing that prevented
Gorbachev from going. (Julia Wishnevsky)

. . . AND AGREES TO TESTIFY ABOUT ATTACK. In an interview with
the Lithuanian newspaper Lietuvos rytas of 25 April, Gorbachev
said he is willing to testify to the Lithuanian Procuracy about
the attack on the Vilnius TV tower, during which 14 people were
killed, Radio Lithuania reports. In a commentary released by
his office, Lithuanian Supreme Council Chairman Vytautas Landsbergis
noted that Gorbachev's new willingness to cooperate could be
the result of an exchange of letters with Russian President Boris
Yeltsin on the question of judicial cooperation so that the Moscow
putschists and other state criminals could not evade responsibility
for their actions. (Saulius Girnius)

IS A CHANGE OF POLISH GOVERNMENT IMMINENT? Speaking at a press
conference in the Sejm on 27 April, President Lech Walesa did
not exclude the possibility that he may propose that the current
government resign, Polish and Western media report. He has been
sharply critical of the government and suggested ways "to improve
the efficiency of democracy." Walesa favors the French constitutional
model whereby the president has executive powers and can appoint
or dismiss the cabinet. Should the current cabinet be dismissed,
Walesa let it be known that he thinks the two best candidates
for premiership are Tadeusz Mazowiecki and Andrzej Olechowski--the
first as "a political fixer, best suited to forge unity" and
the second "a strong, established economist to implement decisive
economic reforms." (Roman Stefanowski)

ESTONIAN GOVERNMENT PRESS BRIEFING. At the regular press briefing
on 27 April, Estonian Prime Minister Tiit Vahi announced the
appointment of state secretary Uno Veering as acting defense
minister. He also announced the end of all state subsidies for
milk, fuel, and rent, the last major subsidies still in effect,
and asked the public for understanding, noting that the retention
of subsidies would have bankrupted the country. The RFE/RL Estonian
Service reported the briefing. (Saulius Girnius)

HAVEL IN SOUTH KOREA. On 27 April, during his talks with South
Korean President Roh Tae Woo, Czechoslovak President Vaclav Havel
said the border between North and South Korea is a "remnant of
the gigantic wall which divided the peoples of the world." He
said the division is "artificial" and he believed it would soon
fall. Roh said he hoped North Korea, like Czechoslovakia, would
some day be free from communism. Officials said Havel asked for
financial assistance from South Korea's Economic Cooperation
Fund, and Roh promised to consider the request favorably, Western
agencies reported. Earlier during Havel's visit, agreements on
investment protection and taxation were signed. (Peter Matuska)


EX-KING MICHAEL ENDS ROMANIAN VISIT. Some 30,000 Romanians, waving
small tricolor flags and the king's portrait, welcomed former
King Michael when he visited royal tombs at Curtea de Arges,
north of Bucharest, Rompres reported on 27 April. The crowd greeted
the ex-monarch with chants of "We love you, Your Majesty" and
"Don't Leave." Michael has promised to visit Romania again. After
his trip to the royal tombs he returned to Bucharest and departed
for Switzerland, where he lives in exile. (Crisula Stefanescu)


DETENTION CAMP RIOT IN HUNGARY. On 25 April Hungarian police
used tear gas and dogs to quell a disturbance by about 25 Chinese,
Pakistani, and Bangladeshi detainees at a camp for illegal immigrants
in Kerepestarcsa, MTI reports. The group showered various objects
on two unarmed police guards and smashed furniture in a guard
room at the camp, where about 150 foreigners are being kept while
awaiting expulsion from the country. This marked the second time
this month that violence has broken out at the Kerepestarcsa
camp. Hungary has become a transit route for illegal immigrants
heading toward the West. Some half a million foreigners have
been turned away at the borders in the past six months because
they lack proper travel documents or funds to finance their stay.
(Edith Oltay)

HUNGARIAN-UKRAINIAN RELATIONS RE-VIEWED. Mykhailo Kraiilo, newly
appointed Ukrainian presidential commissioner in Transcarpathia,
held talks in Budapest with Hungarian Foreign Minister Geza Jeszenszky
and State Secretary Geza Entz, head of the Secretariat for Hungarians
Abroad in the Prime Minister's Office, MTI reported on 24 April.
Kraiilo said his government wanted to guarantee all the rights
of the Magyar and other minorities of Transcarpathia, and that
the decision regarding the region's desire for autonomy is now
with Ukraine's parliament. (Alfred Reisch)

HUNGARY'S DRAFT MINORITY LAW STILL IN THE AIR. A meeting between
minority and government representatives failed to achieve a consensus
on the draft law on national and ethnic minorities approved by
the government on 6 February 1992, MTI and Radio Budapest report.
Minority representatives have rejected the entire draft bill
as being "basically antiminority" and excluding the principle
of "positive discrimination," and have asked for another round
of negotiations. The government, which had planned to submit
the bill to parliament on 7 May, must now decide on what of these
two courses to follow. (Alfred Reisch) [As of 1200 CET] Compiled
by Carla Thorson & Charles Trumbull













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