No. 12, 20 January 1992

SUCCESSOR STATES TO USSR

GEORGIA UPDATE; GAMSAKHURDIA'S WHEREABOUTS UNCLEAR. A coordinator
of resistance to the Georgian Military Council told reporters
on 17 January that ousted president Zviad Gamsakhurdia had called
for a campaign of civil disobedience, but not for a "crusade"
to restore him to power. Pro- and anti-Gamsakhurdia factions
clashed in the city of Kutaisi during the night of 17 January.
On 18 January Military Council troops occupied the towns of Abasha
and Samtredia, a key transport junction. Gamsakhurdia supporters
attacked two Soviet army bases on 18 January in an attempt to
seize weapons, and demonstrated in heavy snow in Zugdidi on 19
January, Western news agencies reported that day. Gamsakhurdia's
whereabouts remain unclear. (Liz Fuller)

FATALITIES IN TASHKENT STUDENT DISTURBANCES. At least six people
have been reported killed in clashes in the Uzbek capital between
demonstrating students and law enforcement officials, Western
and Soviet news agencies reported on 19 and 20 January. The disturbances
began on the evening of January 16 when students of higher educational
institutions in Tashkent began an unauthorized protest against
recent price increases. By 19 January, the demonstrators were
demanding the resignation of Uzbek President Islam Karimov, accusing
him of violations of human rights. (Bess Brown)

STORMY ASSEMBLY OF OFFICERS. Some 5,000 officers met in Moscow
on 17 January as part of the first All-Army Officers' Assembly.
As reported by Western and CIS agencies, the meeting was a contentious
one, with one officer after another rising to urge retention
of a unified army and improved social guarantees for servicemen.
Russian Federation President Boris Yeltsin and Kazakh President
Nursultan Nazarbaev attended the meeting, but other republican
leaders were absent. One delegate demanded the resignation of
CIS Commander in Chief Evgenii Shaposhnikov, causing the Marshal
to storm out of the meeting, but he was soon prevailed upon to
return. The meeting was chaired for the most part by Shaposhnikov's
aide for personnel matters, Nikolai Stolyarov. In the end, the
officers adopted an appeal warning against attempts to divide
the army and voted to create a council tasked with representing
their needs to the political leadership. Shaposhnikov said that
CIS leaders would meet again in Minsk on 14 February specifically
to deal with disagreements on military matters. (Stephen Foye)


NAZARBAEV, YELTSIN ADDRESS OFFICERS. As they have in the past,
Nazarbaev and Yeltsin spoke in favor of maintaining a unified
military system in the CIS. Nazarbaev said that the existing
armed forces were necessary to ensure the security of CIS member
states. He also spoke in sympathetic terms of the need to legislate
commonwealth-wide social protection for servicemen. Yeltsin spoke
in similar terms, again said that Russia would create its own
army only if the other CIS states did so, and offered a new plan
for financing the construction of military housing. He said that
Shaposhnikov would be offered a spot on the Russian delegation
that will go to the United Nations on 31 January. He called upon
the officers to remain calm during this time of upheaval. (Stephen
Foye)

MILITARY FAVORS BISHOP OVER COMMUNIST. Two episodes during the
meeting of the Soviet military, broadcast live on Russian TV's
first channel on 17 January, indicate that the "departification"
of the former Soviet Army seems indeed to go on. In the morning,
the audience interrupted Viktor Ampilov, leader of a new hardline
communist party and a deputy of the Moscow City Soviet, when
he called on the officers "to restore Soviet power." Shaposhnikov,
in fact, switched off Ampilov's microphone, saying that the Army
had already been departified. About two hours later, the officers
welcomed with a standing ovation the speech of Russian Orthodox
Metropolitan Kirill, who praised the role of chaplains in the
Tsarist army. However, only 8% of the officers polled during
the meeting said they favored restoring the institution of regimental
chaplains in the CIS. (Julia Wishnevsky)

POLL: OFFICERS SUPPORT CIS. According to a survey of officers
attending the Officers Assembly, some 52% of the delegates support
the creation of the CIS, while 35% do not. As reported by Interfax
on 17 January, 67% of the delegates felt that the armed forces
should be united and 77% wanted there to be only one military
oath. If the armed forces are to be divided, the survey said,
95% feel that there should be a transitional period. (Stephen
Foye)

"STRATEGIC FORCES" DEFINED. Krasnaya zvezda on 15 January published
an interview with Colonel Viktor Savchenko, identified as a specialist
at the General Staff Operational and Strategic Research Center.
Not surprisingly, he defined "strategic forces" in broad terms,
including general purpose forces used to insure the stability
of the strategic nuclear forces during conventional warfare.
More specifically, Savchenko said that the strategic forces should
include virtually all units and training establishments subordinated
to the Strategic Rocket Forces, as well as the Air Force, Navy,
air defense system, directorate of the chief of space systems,
airborne forces, intelligence units, and other technical and
command and control assets. (Stephen Foye)

LOBOV RESURFACES. Army General Vladimir Lobov, fired unexpectedly
as General Staff Chief in December 1991, is featured in an interview
published by Sovetskaya Rossiya on 4 January . Lobov claimed
that as early as August of 1991 he had foreseen the possibility
of creating a form of "joint" armed forces in the Soviet Union,
not dissimilar from NATO, that granted the republics fundamental
control over general purpose forces on their territories. He
suggested that such ideas were not popular in the USSR Defense
Ministry at that time (they also do not seem entirely consistent
with remarks published by Lobov in the last half of 1991). He
claims to be still in the dark about his dismissal. (Stephen
Foye)

WILL GORBACHEV BE PUT ON TRIAL? Although former USSR president
Mikhail Gorbachev was not implicated in the August coup attempt,
he apparently could still be prosecuted. Evgenii Lisov, the Russian
Deputy General Prosecutor in charge of the coup case, told Izvestia
of 13 January that two other criminal cases had been detached
from that of the August coup-one on the CPSU's illegal financial
activities and another on the illegal methods of the KGB. Lisov
added that, at the moment, he had no comment about Gorbachev's
role in these two cases. Earlier, a number of sources publicly
accused Gorbachev of involvement in the KGB's illegal bugging
of Soviet politicians' telephones. (Julia Wishnevsky)

GROWING PROTEST OVER PRICE INCREASES. On 19 January, some 3,000
people demonstrated in St. Petersburg against price liberalization,
Russian and Western agencies reported. Many of the demonstrators
were reportedly members of various hardline communist groupings;
they carried portraits of Lenin and Stalin and called for Yeltsin
and Mayor Anatolii Sobchak to resign. Reports of protests and
strikes in other cities also have increased. In Yakutsk, ambulance
drivers went on strike on 18 January. Teachers and students closed
a school in Kaluga over the increased cost of school lunches.
Subway workers in St. Petersburg have threatened to strike today
if they do not receive wage increases. (Carla Thorson)

KEBICH FIRST TO VISIT CHINA. Belarus Prime Minister Vyacheslau
Kebich arrived on 19 January in Peking, the first leader of a
newly independent state of the CIS to visit China. According
to Western agencies, the six-day visit will focus on the establishment
of diplomatic ties. China and Belarus have already agreed to
exchange trade offices. In addition, on 17 January Belarus Foreign
Minister Petr Krauchenka held talks with the Vatican's representative
in Moscow, Francesco Colasuonno, during which progress was made
toward developing ties between the Belarus Catholic Church and
Rome. (Kathy Mihalisko)

HURD IN KIEV. Speaking on 19 January to reporters in Kiev, British
Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd said he welcomed Ukraine's decision
to join the nuclear non-proliferation treaty as a non-nuclear
state. While in the Ukrainian capital, Hurd held talks with visiting
US Undersecretary of State Reginald Bartholemew on the coordination
of Western help to dismantle much of the former Soviet nuclear
arsenal. Western agencies also reported that Hurd urged CIS members
to resolve their differences through peaceful negotiations, but
Kravchuk told reporters that if Ukraine objects to something
"then we absolutely have to raise the question of leaving the
commonwealth." (Kathy Mihalisko)

KAZAKHSTAN READY TO SIGN NPT.
Kazakh President Nazarbaev reportedly told Hurd on 18-January
that Kazakhstan was prepared to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty. Western agency reports of their conversation say Nazarbaev
"came close" to confirming that his government would renounce
the use of nuclear weapons. Nazarbaev was reported to have made
the same sort of commitment privately to US Secretary of State
James Baker last December, but refused to confirm this position
in the formal CIS declarations on nuclear weapons and strategic
forces. (Doug Clarke)

RUSSIA, KAZAKHSTAN TO INCREASE URANIUM EXPORTS. In an effort
to offset what many predict will be a significant drop in fossil
fuel exports in 1992, Russia and Kazakhstan are planning to increase
their exports of uranium in 1992, Western and CIS media reported
on 18 and 19 January. For its part, Russia intends to increase
its exports by as much as five times. Russian officials figure
that the additional sales will increase revenues from about $500
million to about $1.5 billion. Kazakhstan has said that it will
sell its uranium only under the guidance and within the regulations
of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Russia and Kazakhstan
each account for about 30% of the former USSR's uranium reserves.
(John Tedstrom)

GORELOVSKY JOINS FOREIGN INTELLI-GENCE. Ivan Gorelovsky, Chairman
of Azerbaijan's KGB during the Soviet Army's intervention in
Baku in January, 1990, has been appointed Deputy Director of
the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (RFIS), Postfaktum reported
on 18 January. A KGB cadres officer, Gorelovsky graduated from
the KGB Higher School and Higher Party School. After the Baku
events he was transferred to the CPSU Central Committee and later
worked in Gorbachev's presidential apparatus. The RFIS, headed
by Evgenii Primakov, became the legal successor to central foreign
intelligence in December, 1991. (Victor Yasmann)

SOUTH OSSETIA HOLDS REFERENDUM ON INDEPENDENCE. TASS reported
on 19 January that most of the Ossetian population of South Ossetia
and also refugees who fled from South Ossetia to Vladikavkaz
in the North Ossetian ASSR voted "Yes" in the 19 January referendum
on whether South Ossetia should be independent from Georgia and
unite with Russia. The Georgian population boycotted the voting.
The Georgian Military Council has criticized the referendum as
a gross violation of Georgia's sovereignty. North Ossetian ASSR
parliament Chairman Akhsarbek Galazov is quoted by Moscow Radio
on 19 January as expressing concern that the referendum could
exacerbate tensions between South Ossetia and Georgia. (Liz Fuller)


MUFTI STILL IN OFFICE. The official UzTAG-TASS news agency reported
on January 16 that the head of the Muslim Religious Board for
Central Asia, Muhammad-Sadyk Muhammad-Yusuf, had not resigned
as reported by liberal Moscow information agencies. UzTAG attacked
Komsomol'skaya pravda for having reported the resignation (the
other agencies that had reported the story were not mentioned).
Last year Moscow news agencies reported that an attempt had been
made to unseat the mufti and erroneously reported that he had
been deposed. The official Uzbek media denied that anything had
happened. (Bess Brown)

"DNIESTER REPUBLIC" MAKES LAVISH OFFER TO ARMY. The would-be
"Dniester Republic" proclaimed by Russians in eastern Moldova
has issued several "laws" on defense, TASS reported on January
16. The "DR" will preserve the existing force structure of the
army units on "its" territory, finance them from its own budget,
and employ the officers and NCOs on contracts to the "DR," "significantly
raising their pay." The 14th Army based there has already placed
itself under the "DR"'s authority and supports its rebellion
against Moldova. On 9 January the "DR" had tripled officers'
salaries (see Daily Report, 13 January.) These lavish offers
seem to bolster the theory that the "DR" enjoys high-level political
and military support. (Vladimir Socor)

CIS DEPUTY COMMANDER IN CHISINAU. Colonel General Boris Pyankov,
Deputy Commander in Chief of the CIS armed forces, held talks
in Chisinau on January 16 with Moldovan officials on the status
of ex-USSR Army troops based in Moldova. Pyankov came in place
of his direct superior, Evgenii Shaposhnikov, who twice has cancelled
planned visits to Chisinau since his appointment and who has
ignored repeated Moldovan demands to discipline the 14th Army
command. Moldovan officials told RFE/RL on 17 January that Pyankov
also declined to act on that demand. Moreover, Pyankov would
only accept Moldovan jurisdiction over units based on the right
bank of the Dniester but not on the left bank, the officials
said. (Vladimir Socor)

BALTIC STATES



DOMESTIC REACTION TO EMERGENCY POWERS IN THE GOVERNMENT-.-.-.
Over the weekend, political forces in Estonia ranging from the
government to the press, began reacting to the Supreme Council's
January-16 decision to grant Prime Minister Edgar Savisaar the
special powers he had requested early last week. Late on the
day of the vote, two cabinet members-Justice Minister Juri Raidla
and Economics Minister Jaak Leimann-stated their intention to
resign in protest of the Supreme Council's move, Paevaleht reported
on January-18. (Riina Kionka)

.-.-.-AND ELSEWHERE. In the political arena, Fatherland (Isamaa),
the conservative election coalition condemned the vote as an
attempt by the government to "rescue" Estonia from its crisis
by reinstating communism. According to the coalition's statement,
carried by ETA on January-18, last week's vote by 53-deputies
suggests that the current government is supported by a union
of Social Democrats, Russian-speakers and those belonging to
the Popular Center Party, a successor to the Popular Front. The
press was dominated over the weekend by a spate of articles sharply
critical of the Supreme Council move. Criticism and support of
the move seems certain to escalate this week. (Riina Kionka)


LANDSBERGIS-YELTSIN MEETING. On January-17 Chairman of the Lithuanian
Supreme Council Vytautas Landsbergis met for more than two hours
with Russian President Boris Yeltsin, Radio Lithuania reported
on January-18. They signed two communiques: one on the results
of the discussion and the other on trade and economic cooperation.
Among the topics discussed were the pullout of Soviet troops
from Lithuania, the extradition of those responsible for the
January events in Vilnius and the murders in Medininkai in July,
and the return of KGB archives to Lithuania. Further, it was
agreed that in the first quarter of 1992 the trade volume between
the two countries will remain at the level of at least 70% of
that in 1991. (Saulius Girnius)

RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT RATIFIES TREATY WITH LITHUANIA. On January-17
the Russian Supreme Soviet ratified the treaty on interstate
relations between Russia and Lithuania, TASS reported. The parliament
urged the government to start talks urgently to sign the treaty
that was initialled in Moscow in July 1991 and ratified by Lithuania
in August. The treaty recognizes Lithuania's independence and
guarantees Russia access to Kaliningrad Oblast through Lithuania
and Lithuania access to Poland through Kaliningrad Oblast. (Saulius
Girnius)

RUSSIAN DELEGATION DISCUSSES ACCORD WITH LATVIA. Radio Riga reported
on January-20 that a Russian parliamentary delegation is discussing
with Latvian officials points of the bilateral accord that was
signed by Russian president Boris Yeltsin and Latvian Supreme
Council Chairman Anatolijs Gorbunovs on January-13, 1991. That
accord, setting guidelines for Latvian-Russian relations, has
not been ratified by the RSFSR Supreme Soviet. Radio Riga said
that after these discussions a prompt ratification of the accord
can be expected. (Dzintra Bungs)

USSR PRESIDENTIAL RULE SUPPORTERS IN LATVIA IDENTIFIED. Latvian
Minister of State Janis Dinevics told the press on January-16
that, according to documents received from the RSFSR State Prosecutor's
office, Latvian Communist Party leaders and members of the Ravnopravie
parliamentary faction appealed in January 1991 to Gorbachev to
institute USSR presidential rule in Latvia. The appeal was sent
under the auspices of the All-Latvia Public Salvation Committee.
Contrary to some rumors, Latvian Supreme Council Chairman Anatolijs
Gorbunovs and Prime Minister Ivars Godmanis were not among the
signers. (Dzintra Bungs)

CEPAITIS REELECTED INDEPENDENCE PARTY CHAIRMAN. A Congress of
the Lithuanian Independence Party met in Vilnius on January-18
and reelected parliament deputy Virgilijus Cepaitis as its chairman,
RFE/RL reported on January-19. Cepaitis admitted in December
that he had cooperated in the 1980s with the KGB. About half
of the party's members (354-people) participated in the congress,
which decided to expel the delegation from Kaunas and take away
its party registration. (Saulius Girnius)

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

PRESIDENT ZHELEV REELECTED. Incumbent president Zhelyu Zhelev
won the runoff elections on January-19 defeating his socialist-backed
opponent Velko Valkanov, albeit by a slim margin. Preliminary
figures show 53.5% of the vote was for Zhelev and 46.3% for Valkanov.
Together with Zhelev, poet Blaga Dimitrova was elected vice president.
Voter participation was less than 70%. In a first statement quoted
by BTA Zhelev said the most important task for Bulgaria now is
to speed up political and economic reform and to attract considerable
foreign investments. (Rada Nikolaev)

GENERAL TODOROV ARRESTED. Former chief of Bulgarian intelligence,
Gen.-Vlado Todorov, who has been on trial since January-8, allegedly
having destroyed the files on the murder of expatriate writer
Georgi Markov, was placed under arrest on January-17. The reason
given, as quoted by BTA, was that the case was being returned
for further investigation after proof had been found of a further
and unspecified crime by the defendant connected with the first
one. BTA and some dailies speculated about a connection with
the death two days before the trial of Gen.-Stoyan Savov who
was to have been tried together with Todorov. (Rada Nikolaev)


OLSZEWSKI APPEALS FOR UNITY. Speaking on nationwide TV on January-17
Polish Prime Minister Jan Olszewski said the country is "on the
threshold of catastrophe," Polish and Western media reported.
While recognizing the extent of poverty and hardship borne by
the population, Olszewski has nevertheless appealed for patience
to give the government time to assess the exact state of the
economy and prepare its program to deal with the situation. Olszewski
said that while under such circumstances the government "can
promise nothing," he appealed for unity and support. (Roman Stefanowski)


YET ANOTHER SET OF ADVISERS FOR WALESA? Presidential spokesman
Andrzej Drzycimski said on January-17 that President Walesa has
invited two former prime ministers Tadeusz Mazowiecki and Jan
Krzysztof Bielecki to serve on a new body of presidential advisers,
Polish and Western media reported. According to Drzycimski what
Walesa wants is a body to help him work out a political and economic
strategy and other idea that he could then pass to the government.
(Roman Stefanowski)

HAVEL ON FUTURE SHAPE OF CZECHOSLOVAKIA. Czechoslovak President
Vaclav Havel said in his regular radio speech on January-19 that
the coming session of the federal parliament will decide the
future shape of the state. The parliament will also take up constitutional
amendments proposed by Havel on electoral reform and a referendum
on Czech and Slovak unity. Czechoslovak Prime Minister Marian
Calfa says that the will to live in a common state is waning
and the major political forces have failed to define the idea
of a common state clearly enough. (Barbara Kroulik)

HUNGARY ESTABLISHES DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH MOLDOVA. Foreign
Minister Geza Jeszenszky visited Chisinau on January-17 to sign
with his Moldovan counterpart Nicolae Tiu an agreement on establishing
diplomatic relations, MTI reported that day. Jeszenszky said
that the results of the talks "surpassed all expectations." Jeszenszky
was the first Foreign Minister of any country other than Romania
to visit Moldova since it proclaimed its independence in August
1991. (Edith Oltay)

FRIENDSHIP PIPELINE LEAKS CRUDE OIL IN HUNGARY. The Friendship
pipeline that carries crude oil from the former USSR to several
East European countries leaked at least 200-m3 of oil in northeastern
Hungary, MTI reported on January-19. The deputy manager of the
Hungarian Oil Company, Gabor Jozsef, said that highly pressurized
oil broke to the surface from the underground pipeline at the
town of Nagyhalasz and soaked about four km2 of soil. He said
that oil from the pipeline was now being diverted into storage
containers at the border and crews had started to clean up the
spilled oil, an operation which will take about two days. While
the cause of the leak was not immediately apparent, Jozsef said
that there had been five earlier leaks in this section of the
pipeline, built 20-years ago, caused by faulty material and outdated
welding techniques. (Edith Oltay)

ROMANIA SETS MINIMAL SALARY AND PENSIONS. On January-18, after
yet another meeting with union representatives, the government
decided to implement a salary index rate of 11% for the period
January-1-April-30, 1992. The minimum monthly salary will be
8,500-lei (as against 7,000 lei in December 1991). Minimum pensions
were raised to 5,380-lei from 4,844-lei. The index also applies
to scholarships, state child benefits, food allowances for collective
consumption, and social benefits. In order to stop speculation
the authorities will control prices for meat and meat products.
(Mihai Sturdza)

ROMANIAN DIPLOMATIC AGENDA. A communique from the Foreign Ministry
on January-18 said that Romania has recognized the republics
of Croatia and Slovenia, and is ready to enter into diplomatic
relations with them. Ion Bistreanu and Ion Cretu have been appointed
as, respectively, charge d'affaires and consul to Moldova. An
ambassador to Chisinau is to be appointed soon. Because of a
busy schedule, French Foreign Minister Roland Dumas has postponed
his visit to Bucharest. No other date has been set, Romanian
media said. He was expected on January-21 to attend the session
of the Romanian-French Joint Commission of Cooperation. (Mihai
Sturdza)

REDRAWING YUGOSLAVIA'S INTERNAL BORDERS. Plans for creating a
"third" Yugoslavia are being advocated ever more openly. Borisav
Jovic, Serbia's representative on the rump State Presidency,
said on January-16 that new borders drawn up in Croatia should
include only the territory it now holds. About one-third of Croatia
is controlled by the federal army. The EC rejected Jovic's suggestion.
Croatia's Foreign Minister Zvonimir Separovic told Le Monde on
January-16 that Croatia's borders can be negotiated with Serbia
once peace is restored. He said that some border changes can
be made by both sides, raising the question of the future of
Bosnia-Herzegovina. Radio Sarajevo speculated last week that
several Serbian and Croatian leaders from Bosnia are secretly
negotiating the partition of the multiethnic republic. Bosnia's
Muslim leaders are opposed to any partition as is the President
of the Croatian Democratic Community, which represents the majority
of Bosnia's Croatians. Last month, Muslim, Serb, and Croat leaders
proposed the creation of a Bosnian confederation or commonwealth.
Bosnia's parliament will decide this week on whether to hold
a referendum over the future of the republic. (Milan Andrejevich)


MONTENEGRO DEBATES SOVEREIGNTY REFERENDUM. Yugoslav media reported
on January-18 that Montenegro's national assembly failed to hold
a vote on whether to hold a referendum on sovereignty. The republic's
ruling Democratic Socialist Party (the former communist party)
said it needed a few days to debate the issue. Montenegro's President
Momir Bulatovic, who proposed that a referendum be held, said
that he feels it is time to consult the Montenegrin people to
determine "the degree of sovereignty" they want. The assembly
reconvenes on Tuesday. The move may be seen as Montenegro's effort
to reappraise its close alliance with Serbia. Since the war began
in Croatia this summer, 86-Montenegrin federal soldiers have
been killed and nearly 1,000 wounded. (Milan Andrejevich)

MACEDONIAN ALBANIANS IN A QUANDARY. After more than 90% of Albanians
in the Republic of Macedonia approved a autonomy in a referendum
on January 11-12, they are deeply divided over what to do, Yugoslav
media report. The issue hinges on the degree of autnomy sought
by the Albanians of the Republic of Macedonia. Several predominantly
ethnic Albanian municipalities in western Macedonia declared
the region the "Republic of Vevcani." The head of Macedonia's
largest Albanian party, Nevzad Halili, condemned the move. (Milan
Andrejevich) [As of 1200 CET] Compiled by Sallie Wise Chaballier
& Charles Trumbull