No. 193, 10 October 1991

USSR--ALL-UNION TOPICS AND RSFSR



RSFSR SUPREME SOVIET DISCUSSES TREATY ON ECONOMIC COMMUNITY.
Contradictory views were expressed October 9 in a joint session
of the RSFSR Supreme Soviet devoted to the treaty on an economic
community, TASS reported October 9. Economist Grigorii Yavlinsky,
the treaty's author, defended it and argued that it would not
recreate the central bodies of control as maintained by some
of its opponents. Deputy Prime Minister and Economics Minister
Evgenii Saburov refuted suggestions that he had not been empowered
to sign the relevant documents, saying that Yeltsin has given
him his personal blessing. First Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Lobov
disagreed with Yavlinsky and Saburov, maintaining that the treaty
was unacceptable in that it would infringe the economic and political
sovereignty of the RSFSR. At the end of the debate a group was
set up to draw up a draft resolution on the treaty. (Ann Sheehy)


TEXT OF TREATY PUBLISHED IN IZVESTIA. The text of the "Treaty
on an Economic Community" was published in Izvestia of October
4. This is presumably the text signed by Belorussia, Kazakhstan,
and Uzbekistan. In an article in the same issue of Izvestia,
Otto Latsis noted how the text had been improved in the course
of discussions. It is a moot point now, though, that this text
will be accepted by the RSFSR Supreme Soviet. The final article
of the text states that the treaty comes into force after it
has been signed by three republics and ratified by their parliaments.
(Ann Sheehy)

CONFLICT IN RSFSR LEADERSHIP INTENSIFIES. Yavlinsky warned that
current disputes in the RSFSR leadership are hindering the creation
of the new Soviet Economic Union Treaty, according to TASS October
9. On the same day, Vesti reported an unfriendly exchange of
letters between RSFSR President Boris Yeltsin and his former
Prime Minister, Ivan Silaev. The latter had asked the former
to return jurisdiction over the energy sector from the RSFSR
back to the center. Yeltsin called Silaev's present job at the
center "unconstitutional," while Silaev described Yeltsin's reaction
as "too emotional." Meanwhile, the Democratic Russia Movement
called upon Yeltsin to include their representatives in the RSFSR
government. (Alexander Rahr)

ANOTHER RSFSR MINISTER RESIGNS. RSFSR Economics Minister Evgenii
Saburov has resigned, complaining of the RSFSR government's "inability"
to stabilize the economy and ensure the transition to a market
economy, TASS reported October 9. The day before, RSFSR Deputy
Prime Minister Igor Gavrilov quit the government for similar
reasons. RSFSR Vice President Aleksandr Rutskoi had accused Saburov
of negotiating an agreement on an economic union with other republics
in Alma-Ata without a proper mandate from his government. Oleg
Lobov, now acting RSFSR Prime Minister, stressed that the Alma-Ata
agreement "smacked of a new attempt to restore the domination
of the center," Western news agencies reported that day. (Alexander
Rahr)

PETROV ON FIGHTING IN RSFSR LEADERSHIP. Yurii Petrov, chief of
the RSFSR presidential administration, denied that there is an
organized opposition in the Russian leadership. He told Izvestia
on October 9 that a "natural competition" for gaining influence
with the RSFSR President is going on. Petrov stressed that his
administration has been created to improve links between the
various governmental institutions, such as the State Council,
Security Council or Cabinet of Ministers with the President.
(Alexander Rahr)

INTERFAX PUBLISHES LATEST UNION TREATY DRAFT. On October 9 Interfax
distributed as an express information issue the latest draft
of the Union treaty circulated by Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev
to the republics. According to the Interfax summary of the draft,
the new Union will be called a Union of Free Sovereign Republics.
From the summary it appears that much has been retained from
the text that was due to be signed on August 20, but would appear
to provide for a somewhat looser Union. The draft states that
the new Union would be the successor state to the USSR in international
law. The provision that the President should be elected by universal
ballot has been retained. (Ann Sheehy)

GORBACHEV MAKES FORMAL AID REQUEST. On October 9, Soviet President
Mikhail Gorbachev met with US Secretary of Agriculture Edward
Madigan and made a specific request for American assistance,
Western agencies reported that day. Secretary Madigan declined
to disclose details of the request except that it included an
element of humanitarian aid. Gorbachev was said to be enthusiastic
about proposals to send US farm and food processing experts to
advise their Soviet counterparts, and to set up a "model American
farm." Madigan indicated that the US planned to funnel most of
its assistance through Gorbachev and the central government--apparently
in an attempt to avoid the political and logistical headaches
that might be encountered if aid is parcelled out to republics.
(Keith Bush)

G-7 MEETING IN BANGKOK. Finance ministers from the Group of Seven
industrial nations will meet in Bangkok on October 11-12, where
a major topic will be Western aid to the Soviet Union. US Treasury
Secretary Nicholas Brady told a press conference on October 10
that the G-7 nations have no clear view of how to help the Soviet
Union, nor are all details of the USSR's balance of payments
problem available, Western agencies reported that day. German
Finance Minister Theo Waigel said that the West must be given
full details of Moscow's and the republics' finances; he urged
the preservation of Vneshekonombank as the guarantor of financial
transactions with the West. Ivan Silaev told CNN October 8 that
the USSR would reveal its gold reserves in the next few days.
(Keith Bush)

LEADUP TO THE IMF MEETING. Ahead of the International Monetary
Fund's annual meeting in Bangkok October 13-17, Western agencies
October 9 reported that the 17-member Soviet delegation will
be led by Grigorii Yavlinsky and Viktor Gerashchenko. The team
will also include a senior representative from the RSFSR Supreme
Soviet, the Kirgiz finance minister, and Belorussia's deputy
finance minister. These three are attending as part of the Soviet
delegation and will not be representing their own republics,
according to unnamed sources. The IMF's World Economic Outlook,
released October 9, foresees a drop of 10.6% in the GNP of the USSR and
Eastern Europe this year, and predicts a further decline in Soviet
GNP in 1992. (Keith Bush)


FOOD SUPPLY AGREEMENT. On October 9, the Committee for the Operational
Management of the Economy approved and sent to the State Council
a draft agreement on food supply, TASS reported that day. The
urgency of the food supply situation was underlined by the fact
that grain procurements to date have reached only 54million tons--the
lowest level in half a century--and bread rationing has been
introduced in 16 territories. The draft envisages a sharp contraction
of the all-union grain reserve. In future, this will provide
only for the armed forces, labor colonies, prisons, and the inhabitants
of Moscow. $10.4 billion has been allocated for imported foodstuffs;
in the opinion of specialists, the sum of $14.7 billion would
be needed to maintain food supply at the level obtaining in 1990.
(Keith Bush)

OIL PRICE TO QUADRUPLE IN 1992. The USSR Minister of the Oil
Industry, Lev Churilov, told The Financial Times October 9 that
he and the Russian government were preparing to raise the domestic
price of oil from 70 rubles to 300-350 rubles a ton next year.
The new price would apply to oil supplied under state orders,
while enterprises would be allowed to sell 30% of their output
at free market prices. Churilov disclosed that his ministry would
be disbanded at the end of this year to make way for republican-owned
oil corporations. The possibility of privatizing oil will be
examined next year. Churilov forecast oil output in 1991 at 550
million tons, which is above most recent estimates. (Keith Bush)


FOREIGN POLICY ASSOCIATION TO HOLD CONFERENCE. The Foreign Policy
Association set up by Eduard Shevardnadze in February of this
year will hold an inaugural conference in December, TASS reported
October 9. The agency said that Aleksandr Yakovlev, Anatolii
Sobchak, and Gavriil Popov take part in the association's activities.
The agency also quoted Shevardnadze as saying that he decided
to set up an analytical center in political science within the
framework of the association. The association will soon hold
a US-Soviet scholarly conference to discuss what constitutes
American and Soviet national interests today. (Vera Tolz)

PANKIN TO MIDDLE EAST SOON. Soviet Foreign Minister Boris Pankin
announced on October 9 that he will travel to Syria, Jordan,
Israel, and perhaps other Middle Eastern countries, later this
month in preparation for a Mideast peace conference. According
to Western agency reports yesterday, Pankin told a press conference
in Moscow that he hoped the peace conference could convene before
the end of October. He also reiterated the USSR's intention to
restore full diplomatic relations with Israel. (Sallie Wise Chaballier)


SHEBARSHIN ON COUP, FUTURE OF KGB. Recently retired chief of
the KGB's the First Main Administration for Foreign Intelligence
Leonid Shebarshin told Komsomol'skaya pravda of October 2 that
the decision to separate the administration from the KGB is absolutely
correct. However, he said, the separation of the Administration
of Government Communications and the Eighth Main Administration
for Communication and Cryptography was made hastily and must
be reconsidered, because it leaves the KGB without reliable "SIGINT"
channels. Shebarshin revealed that during the coup, Vladimir
Kryuchkov did not give an order for action to the special force
subordinated to foreign intelligence. His directive was instead
to redeploy it from a distant suburban base to the Lubyanka building.
(Victor Yasmann)

RADIO ROSSII DOUBTS COOPERATION BETWEEN KGB AND CIA. Radio Rossii
on October 8 pronounced itself perplexed by an interview given
by Acting CIA Director Richard Kerr to The Wall Street Journal
of October 4, in which he reportedly suggested that the CIA could
cooperate with revamped Soviet intelligence to combat terrorism,
drug trafficking, and nuclear proliferation. First, the areas
of cooperation suggested are not within the competence of the
CIA, but of the FBI, the State Department, and the US Treasury.
Second, Radio Rossii expressed doubt that KGB Chairman Vadim
Bakatin had asked US Secretary of State James Baker for legal
advice from the CIA to the KGB on how to adapt its functions
to a democratic society. Legal oversight of intelligence is the
domain of the USSR Supreme Soviet, just as the US Congress oversees
the CIA. "So, is somebody fooling us or we are fooling ourselves?"
asked Radio Rossii. (Victor Yasmann)

CHECHEN CONGRESS ORDERS GENERAL MOBILIZATION. The situation in
Checheno-Ingushetia has deteriorated further. Reacting sharply
to the October 8 resolution of the presidium of the RSFSR Supreme
Soviet (see Daily Report, October 9), the Executive Committee
of the Congress of the Chechen People called for a general mobilization
of the male population aged 15 to 55, TASS reported October 9.
It also called for the unofficial formations of the national
guards to be in a state of battle readiness and summoned its
supporters to a meeting on October 10. Interfax said the chairman
of the Executive Committee, retired general Dzhokhar Dudaev,
described the RSFSR Supreme Soviet Presidium resolution as "a
virtual declaration of war on our republic." (Ann Sheehy)

TENSION IN NORTH OSSETIA IN REACTION TO INGUSH DEMANDS. Great
concern has been caused in North Ossetia by the decision of the
recent Third Congress of the Ingush People to demand the return
of the Prigorodnyi raion of North Ossetia to the Ingush. TASS
reported October 9. TASS said that demands were being made for
the creation of a national guard in North Ossetia. According
to Vesti of the same date, self-defense units and posts are already
being created. The Ingush demand included the return of right
bank of the North Ossetian capital, Vladikavkaz, where nearly
all North Ossetia's industry and its scientific potential are
concentrated. (Ann Sheehy)


USSR--OTHER REPUBLICS


ELENA BONNER ISSUES APPEAL OVER NAGORNO-KARABAKH. In an open
letter published October 9 in Nezavisimaya gazeta, Elena Bonner
claims that more than 30 people have been killed since the signing
September 24 of the NKAO peace agreement, which "has collapsed."
Bonner calls on RSFSR President Yeltsin and Kazakh President
Nursultan Nazarbaev, who mediated the cease-fire, to "find mechanisms"
for implementing all points of the agreement; she claims that
the projected exchange of hostages has not yet taken place and
that Azerbaijan is still blocking food deliveries to the oblast.
(Liz Fuller)

GEORGIAN PRIME MINISTER ALLEGES KGB MEDDLING. Georgian Prime
Minister Bessarion Gugushvili has reiterated accusations first
made last month that the KGB is undermining the Georgian government's
attempts to negotiate an agreement with the opposition, Western
news agencies reported October 9. Gugushvili declined to produce
any evidence for such allegations, which have been denied by
both Soviet President Gorbachev and the USSR government. (Liz
Fuller)

TAJIK ELECTION CAMPAIGN. Ten candidates are formally registered
as candidates for the presidential election on November 24, according
to a TadzhikTA-TASS report of October 9. An earlier report had
said that there were 17candidates. The republican daily Narodnaya
gazeta has listed several nominations apiece for former Communist
Party chief Rakhman Nabiev and former chairman of the Tajik Supreme
Soviet Kadriddin Aslonov, who was forced to resign his post after
banning the republican CP. The report says that Nabiev and Davlat
Khudonazarov, liberal head of the USSR Cinematographers' Union,
have the best chances of winning. This prognosis might change
should the Muslim clergy persuade Kazi Akbar Turadzhonzoda to
be a candidate. (Bess Brown)

TAJIK AGREEMENT PUBLICIZED. The text of the agreement worked
out by representatives of the Tajik Supreme Soviet and the three
opposition groups that have been staging demonstrations since
late August was read on Radio Dushanbe on October 7. In addition
to reimposing a ban on the Communist Party, the agreement added
a referendum on the Supreme Soviet to the presidential election
on November 24. It also recommended that representatives of the
opposition Islamic Renaissance Party, Democratic Party and Rastokhez
Movement be added to election commissions, and promised that
all parties would have equal access to TV and radio time. (Bess
Brown)

VELIKHOV HAS LITTLE FAITH IN AGREEMENT. Academician Evgenii Velikhov,
one of Gorbachev's special envoys to Tajikistan who sought to
end the confrontation between conservatives and opposition forces
there, was quoted by TASS on October 9 as saying that he has
little faith that the agreement he helped to negotiate in Dushanbe
will be anything other than temporary. All democratic forces
in the republic, including the progressive Muslim clergy, must
exercise a stabilizing influence on Tajik society, said Velikhov,
who fears the influence of fundamentalists. (Bess Brown)

TAJIK EMPLOYMENT FUND ESTABLISHED. A TadzhikTA-TASS item of October
9 reports the creation of a state fund to promote full employment
in Tajikistan. The republican Cabinet of Ministers has ordered
that all employers, whether public or private, must contribute
to the fund, which will also receive 4% of the republican budget.
The fund is to help lessen the shock of the transition to a market
in economy in Tajikistan, where the unemployment rate was already
one of the highest in the Soviet Union, by providing money for
unemployment benefits, job creation, and development of social
infrastructure. (Bess Brown)

NEW PARTY IN KAZAKSTAN. Radio Mayak reported on October 9 that
a new party, the Popular Congress of Kazakhstan, has held its
founding congress in Alma-Ata. The objective of the new group
is apparently to unite progressives who have been scattered in
a number of movements and groups. According to Mayak, representatives
of the anti-nuclear movement Nevada-Semipalatinsk, the Kazakh
Azat Party--the largest non-Communist political party, the Russian
Edinstvo group, the Kazakh Language Society and others attended
the congress, which elected Nevada chairman (and Writers' Union
head) Olzhas Suleimenov and poet and political activist Mukhtar
Shakhanov cochairmen of the new party. Kazakh President Nazarbaev
gave the new party his blessing. (Bess Brown)


BALTIC STATES


USSR REESTABLISHES DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH LITHUANIA, ESTONIA.
On October 9 foreign ministers of the USSR, Lithuania, and Estonia
exchanged notes in Moscow on the establishment diplomatic relations
at the ambassador level. Soviet Foreign Minister Boris Pankin
said that diplomatic relations with Latvia would be established
soon. (Dzintra Bungs)

LATVIA WILL NOT JOIN SOVIET ECONOMIC UNION. Latvian Prime Minister
Ivars Godmanis told the press in Riga that "Latvia does not intend
to sign a new treaty on an economic union" with the USSR, but
will aim to join the EC. Godmanis stressed that economic ties
with the East are important and that Latvia would therefore continue
to establish treaty relations with each republic. Godmanis added:
"If economic cooperation in the East assumes the form of an economic
union, it would be advisable for the Baltics as a whole to join
a new economic community and conclude a special treaty," reported
TASS on October 9. (Dzintra Bungs)

LATVIAN LEGISLATORS CONTINUE DISCUSSION OF CITIZENSHIP ISSUES.
On October 9 the Latvian Supreme Council decided to continue
discussions of various issues concerning citizenship using the
legislative proposals worked out by Deputy Janis Lagzdins as
basis for further discussions that would lead to the adoption
of laws and decrees regarding citizenship and citizens' rights
in the Republic of Latvia, Radio Riga reported that day. A working
group was created to develop and coordinate various proposals
raised by legislators in the two days of discussion of the issues.
The working groups would also consider the set of proposals offered
by the working group headed by Deputy Juris Bojars. (Dzintra
Bungs)

LITHUANIA SUPPORTS CROATIAN INDEPENDENCE. On October 9 the Lithuanian
Supreme Council's Presidium adopted a statement calling for international
recognition of Croatia. The statement, according to RFE/RL's
Lithuanian Service, said that the fighting in Yugoslavia is a
threat to peace in Europe and urged the CSCE process to provide
political support to Croatia by recognizing its independence.
(Dzintra Bungs)

THIRD PROTOCOL SIGNED ON LIQUIDATION OF KGB IN ESTONIA. On October
9 Estonian Prime Minister Edgar Savisaar and USSR KGB chairman
Vadim Bakatin signed the third protocol on implementing the decision
to end all KGB activity in Estonia. The first protocol was signed
on September 4. The new accord stipulates that a part of KGB
archives would be handed over to Estonia by November 25, and
that the USSR would provide pensions for former KGB employees
in Estonia. A final accord is expected to be signed by December
1, reported Baltfax on October 9. (Dzintra Bungs)

JAPAN RENEWS DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH BALTIC STATES. According
to a Kyodo dispatch of October 9, Japan has now reestablished
diplomatic relations with all three Baltic States. This was done
when earlier this week Japan's Deputy Foreign Minister Mueno
Suzuki visited Vilnius, Riga, and Tallinn. (Dzintra Bungs)