In Global Peace Through The Global University System

2003 Ed. by T. Varis, T. Utsumi, and W. R. Klemm

University of Tampere, Hameenlinna, Finland

 

 

Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming

(A Personal Recollection on Its Inception and Development)

 

 

Takeshi Utsumi

GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in the U.S.A.
(GLOSAS/USA)

 

Abstract

 

As a computer simulationist, I conceived in 1972 an idea of establishing a Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG) with a globally distributed computer simulation system through a global grid computer network, with a focus on the issue of environment and sustainable development in developing countries.  This is a computerized gaming/simulation to help decision makers construct a globally distributed decision-support system for positive sum/win-win alternatives to conflict and war.  It can also be used to train would-be decision makers in crisis management, conflict resolution, and negotiation techniques.  This gaming approach is to devise a way for conflict resolution with rational analysis and critical thinking basing on "facts and figures."

 

Over the past three decades I played a major pioneering role in extending U.S. data communication networks to other countries, particularly to Japan, and deregulating Japanese telecommunication policies for the use of Internet e-mail.  I also contributed by conducting innovative distance teaching trials with "Global Lecture Hall (GLH)"tm videoconferences using hybrid delivery technologies, which spanned from Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Finland, Italy, France, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, etc.

Using this background, we are now creating a Global University System (GUS) with colleagues in major regions of the world, which will be interconnected with Global Broadband Internet (GBI).  The GCEPG is one of the proposed ways to utilize the GUS and GBI in integrative fashion.  A similar scheme with globally distributed computer simulation system can be applied to various subjects as creating a new paradigm of joint research and development on a global scale.  This will foster not only wisdom by collaborative interaction on knowledge but also true friendship among people around the world with mutual understanding and lasting peace.

This paper briefly describes the history of the GCEPG project since its inception in 1972 and its future direction. It is a companion to the opening chapter “Creating Global University System” of the book “Global Peace Through The Global University System.”



Global Peace Gaming


 
War and Peace Gaming

 

As a General Chairman, I organized a large Summer Computer Simulation Conference (SCSC) with several hundred attendees in Boston, in 1971. A professor from the US Naval Post Graduate School in Monterey, California presented his work on war gaming. The professor's last words were: "War gaming cannot be perfect without having its models tied together with simulation models of civilian sectors" (Schram et al., 1971). I responded, "Well, we may be able to help them, at least in the simulation of the civilian component," (see Figure 1). This motivated me to create a Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG), particularly on the issue of environment and sustainable development in developing countries, and the Global University System that would supply the players of the game. The games were intended to train would-be decision makers in crisis management, conflict resolution, and negotiation techniques. This gaming approach aimed to devise rational methods for conflict resolution basing on “facts and figures.”

In the early 1970s, I coined the word "Peace Gaming" (Utsumi, 1977) in contrast to the War Gaming that is now used extensively by the military.  In both of these types of gaming, roles are assigned to players to represent important opponents in a real-life confrontation.  But the objectives are as different as war and peace (Figure 2 --click here for larger diagram).

 

If education is based on suspicion, it generates fear.  It then needs to conduct a war game, i.e., a zero-sum game to grab a piece of pie out of the limited total size.  The objective of war games is to win the war.  However, because a nuclear war at this stage of technological advancements and military power would bring devastating effects to both sides, everyone would end up with lose-lose consequences.

On the other hand, if education is based on understanding, it will foster trust among people.  They may conduct a peace game by charging players with the responsibility of reaching a peaceful resolution of a conflict of ideas or objectives, i.e., a plus-sum game that increases the total size of pie collaboratively with creative ideas of the participants.  Each participant can have bigger size of the pie than the one from the limited size pie for zero-sum game.  The objective of peace game is then to reach a peaceful resolution of a conflict in such a way that a nuclear war would never happen reflecting a win-win situation.


The GCEPG with a globally distributed computer simulation system is a computerized gaming/simulation to help decision makers construct a globally distributed decision-support system for positive sum/win-win alternatives to conflict and war. The idea involves interconnecting experts in many countries via global Internet to collaborate in the discovering of new solutions for world crises, such as the deteriorating ecology of our globe, and to explore new alternatives for a world order capable of addressing the problems and opportunities of an interdependent globe. Gaming/simulation is the best tool we have for understanding the world's problems and the solutions we propose for them. The understanding gained with scientific and rational analysis and critical thinking would be the basis of world peace, and hence ought to provide the basic principle of global education for peace.


Then in 1981, I coined the phrase "Global Neural Computer Network" in which each participating game player, with his/her own desktop computer, database and sub-model, would correspond to a neuron, router to synapses, with the Internet serving as nerves in a global brain.  Vice President Al Gore used this term in a speech (as the result of one of his staffs at the White House received numerous e-mail messages from my list) and continued with the following words:

"The Department of Defense is investing well over $1 billion in the development and implementation of networked distributed interactive simulation.  This technology, which allows dispersed learners to engage in collaborative problem solving activities in real time, is now ready for transfer to schools and workplaces outside of the defense sector."

[Speaking to communications industry leaders, January 11, 1994, Washington, D.C.]

 

Encountering ARPANET

 

After the first presentation of our peace gaming project at the first International Conference on Computer Communication (ICCC) in Washington, D.C. in October 1972, I saw a demonstration of ARPANET (Advanced Research Project Agency Network of the U.S. Department of Defense), the first packet-switching data telecommunication network.  I then decided to work on its extension to overseas countries, particularly to Japan, because such a network would be the most suitable for our global peace gaming.  In a sense, it was the very first step of "closing digital divide" movement in the present day's terminology.

 

I heard that the ARPANET was extended to England and then thought, why not to Japan?  My visits with many US governmental agencies failed, however.  Later, the reason became clear.  The connection of the ARPANET to England was actually through Norway via satellite and from Norway to England via undersea cable.  The reason for connection of the ARPANET through Norway was to detect the seismic wave of underground testing explosion of nuclear bombs in Soviet Union.  Later I learned that because Japan is an island it could not detect seismic waves from Soviet Union.

 

Extension of Telenet to Japan

 

As soon as the Telenet, a commercial version of ARPANET, was opened in the summer of 1976, I visited their office, offering my assistance to extend their data telecommunication network to overseas countries, particularly to Japan.  The nature of telecommunications business made it natural to expand globally.

 

This extension effort (which is now called "closing digital divide") met with much opposition from the U.S. firms who previously encountered difficulties in extending their time-sharing computer services to Japan.  My petition to the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for extension of Telenet to Japan was to demonstrate to Japanese how networking could increase intellectual capital, decrease the cost of communications, and increase overall efficiency.  It would also reveal to Japanese society and businesses how ridiculous and unempowering Japanese telecommunications policies were.  The FCC finally allowed the extension of Telenet to Japan, as a demonstration of the urgency with which the FCC's determination considered my petition and contention seriously.  The extended network of Telenet provided Japanese institutions with services of many data bank companies, compared to the exclusive time-sharing services that were previously available only from the host computers of opposing firms.  Consequently, the extension of Telenet to Japan was an instant success.

 

First Global Peace Gaming in Normative (Qualitative) Mode

 

After attending the 1972 SCSC in San Diego, California, I visited Professor Bob Noel of the Political Science Department of the University of California in Santa Barbara.  I saw a conference room with a wall-size world map, and an American flag standing by.  It was like a situation room of a governmental agency.  The adjacent room was a control room with a short-wave radio that could receive world news instantaneously.  The wall adjacent to the conference room had a glass window from which they could videotape the activities of the conference.

 

Professor Noel was conducting a political gaming on international affairs using ARPANET.  He assigned several different schools to act as the governments of the United States, Soviet Union, Japan, China, etc.  Students had to study about the assigned countries before the start of the game.

 

I inquired about the actor for Japan, and was told that it was the University of Southern California.  I remarked that: "However hard Americans may study about Japan, they cannot think as Japanese, since they eat steak with knife and fork while Japanese eat noodles with chopsticks."  So I proposed that professor Noel invite the University of Tokyo to play the role of the Japanese government.  Thus was born the original idea of Globally Collaborative Peace Gaming.

 

In the spring of 1973, I conducted the world-first global "Peace Gaming" with professor Noel with the use of e-mail over computer networks.  I invited the University of Tokyo, and he invited the University of Brussels, and the University of London in addition to several universities in the U.S.  It was a "normative" gaming based on exchanging diplomatic e-mail messages without the use of quantitative computer simulation models.  American universities sent their messages through ARPANET and overseas universities through GEISCO (a GE's time-sharing service firm).

 

Students acted as the heads of states and cabinet members of assigned countries.  All messages were accumulated and re-distributed by a node at the University of California in Santa Barbara.  The scenario designed by professor Noel assumed an international crisis with a border incident between Iran and Iraq which actually happened about a half dozen years later.  The Japanese team sent their messages to the United Nations team, asking to make the Straits of Malaca an international zone to secure oil flow from the Middle East to Japan.  They also asked the U.S. and Soviet Union teams to withdraw their naval fleets from the Pacific and Indian Oceans, respectively.

 

De-regulation of Japanese Telecommunications Policies for the Use of E-mail

 

Unfortunately, this exciting global gaming had to be terminated upon instructions from KDD (Kokusai Denshin Denwa, the Japanese overseas telecommunications authority).  This was due to the Japanese telecommunications regulations, which strictly prohibited message exchange through a computer without changing its contents.  However, a node in Santa Barbara, California, performed the message exchange, which was clearly outside of the Japanese jurisdiction.  I therefore thought that this was patently unfair.

 

I then found fine prints in the KDD's user manual on the Telenet's extension line, prohibiting the use of e-mail.  This would negate my previous effort of extending Telenet to Japan, since e-mail would be the most convenient means of communication among game players.  So, I chose to work through the U.S. government on the de-regulation of the Japanese telecommunications policy for the use of e-mail.  The late Commerce Secretary, Malcolm Baldridge, kindly took this issue as one of three items for discussion as Japan's "Non-tariff Barriers" when he visited Tokyo in October 1981 (Chunichi-Shimbun, Oct. 31 1981).  This was the beginning of fierce US/Japan trade battles in the following years.

 

My efforts, however, encountered severe opposition from the Japanese Ministry of Post and Telecommunications (MPT), and of course KDD, which was the semi-governmental monopoly at that time.  This was due to the difficulty of "mind-change" from circuit-switching technology for analog telephony to packet-switching technology for data communications.  Another reason was that almost 60% of KDD's revenue was from Telex.  Lo and behold, their financial status dropped into "red" a decade after I succeeded with the de-regulation effort!

 

My effort also triggered the privatization of Japanese telecommunications industries and de-monopolization of the Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT), the world's largest corporation, and KDD.  I would now say that the greatest beneficiaries of my de-regulation efforts were large Japanese trade firms.  This was because the firms till then had to have their own leased Telex lines all over the world with millions and millions of dollars in payments to KDD.  About a decade ago, all of them ceased the use of Telex in favor of e-mail, thus saving huge amounts of money.

 

After successful conduct of the global gaming with professor Noel, I tried to solicit the participation of Japanese government officers for my second round.  I visited an officer at the Japanese Economic Planning Agency, who was sent from the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF), the most powerful ministry, and who was a graduate from the Political Science Department of the University of Tokyo.  I explained to him that the gaming players would act as echelons of governments, according to scenarios for the perspectives of policy analysis, training on negotiation techniques, etc.  He replied, saying: "Are you suggesting that we, as Japanese government officers, act as KABUKI Players?"  I learned how difficult it was to trigger a "mind-change," but I believe that tenacious persistence and patience will prevail and are the key ingredients of success.

 

"And it ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of new order to things.  Because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new.  This coolness arises partly from fear of the opponents, who have the laws on their side, and partly from the incredulity of men, who do not readily believe in new things until they have had a long experience of them.  Thus, it happens that whenever those who are hostile have the opportunity to attack they do it like partisans, whilst the others defend lukewarmly..."

[Niccolo Machiavelli's word on Introducing Change in his "The Prince," 1513.]

 

See more in Chapter 1: "Personal Recollections on the Inceptions of Peace Gaming and Global University System" in a book draft "Electronic Global University System and Services."

 

Idea of Distributed Computer Simulation System

 

The well-publicized book, The Limit to the Growth (Meadows, 1972) (which was the outgrowth of the book World Dynamics by Prof. Jay W. Forrester of Massachusetts Institute of Technology  (M.I.T.)) indicated interactions of population, industrialization, agriculture, resources, and pollution on a global scale.  Some said that the publication of this book triggered the first oil shock in the early 1970s and changed the world economy.

 

On the other hand, the book received severe criticisms that appeared in many journals and newspapers.  The main contention was on the credibility of the data they used, i.e., how a group of only a few scientists could claim that they knew everything of the world.  I thought at the time, why not take the motto of the Greyhound Bus Company, "Leave the Driving to Us."  Namely, each participant at appropriate locations should construct the sub-models of their individual sectors and countries and then connect all of their sub-models via telecommunications as if their total acts as a single model.  The experts of those sectors and countries could bring credible data and model structure.  Thus was born the idea of a distributed computer simulation system through a data telecommunication network similar to an analog computer configuration, as corresponding to each of sub-models to components of the analog computer, which are processed in parallel fashion.

 

System Dynamics Methodology

 

Incidentally, after contributing to the early development of digital computers and inventing magnetic-core memory, Prof. Jay W. Forrester pioneered "system dynamics," a computer simulation methodology for understanding complexity that extends far beyond servomechanisms and Cybernetics theory.  He applied quantitative, system analysis and computer simulation technology to complex socio-economic, bio- and eco-systems to evaluate how alternative policies affect growth, stability, fluctuation, and changing behavior.

 

The system dynamics' cause-and-effect analysis based on feedback theory, along with computer simulation modeling, is the best tool to understand the inter-relatedness and inter-dependency of various complex world phenomena.

 

Under Forrester's leadership, pioneering schools are creating a new kind of pre-college education, starting in kindergarten that is built on a system dynamics foundation.  Such education becomes inter-disciplinary with the same computer simulation concepts applied to the environment, biology, history, literature, and economics.  We can expect future leaders with expanded abilities for crisis management, policy-making, and negotiation skills for corporate, national, and global issues.  The resulting deeper understanding of social and economic complexity, arising from this new kind of education, will enhance mutual understanding among people of different countries and cultures, and facilitate world peace and a sustainable development of humankind in the 21st century.

 

Global Peace Gaming in Quantitative Mode

 

Later, I conducted a demonstration of global-scale peace gaming at the conference on "Crisis Management and Conflict Resolution" that was organized by the World Future Society (WFS) in New York City, in July of 1986.  It was one of the largest and perhaps the most successful demonstration of global gaming/simulation so far.  The event was a global gaming simulation session on a crisis scenario involving the U.S.-Japan trade, and economic issues.  Nearly 1,500 people took part in New York, Tokyo, Honolulu, and at the World's Fair in Vancouver, B.C.  An officer of the United Nations wrote a game scenario, and Prof. Akira Onishi of Soka University in Tokyo supplied FUGI Global Modeling System, which is the world largest econometric model (Onishi, 2003).

 

Noted U.S. economists (Prof. Lester C. Thurow of M.I.T., Provost William Nordhaus of Yale University, Mr. Keith Johnson of Townsend and Greenspan Company) were panelists of this event during which they interconnected electronically with Japanese counterparts for three days of computer-assisted negotiations.  Several hypothetical policies were examined.  One issue raised by President Emeritus of American Arbitration Association was the effect of raising military expenditures in Japan to the American level while lowering those of the U.S. to the present Japanese level.  Simulation that ran overnight predicted that the balance of trade would thus be even by the year 2000, with the necessity of cooperation, rather than competition by both countries in the future.  This clearly indicated the cost and dilemma of the American nuclear umbrella protecting Japan's economic prosperity, thus threatening American's economic prosperity (Nikkei, 1986).

 

This event, combined with the use of inexpensive delivery systems, afforded an opportunity to contemplate how academic departments might become linked across national boundaries for the purpose of joint study, research and planetary problem-solving without expending high cost for satellite video.  After this successful sessions, several former high ranking officers of the U.S. and Japanese governmental agencies expressed strong interest in a similar multi-media teleconferencing on a more regular basis to establish an early warning system for both countries' ever-closely interwoven, interdependent economic and trade relationships.  System analysis for systemic change at the global level is a precondition for any significant resolution to today's global-scale problems.

 

 

 GLOSAS Activities

 

GLOSAS/USA

Envisioning a significant future on the use of information and communication technologies (ICTs) in educational and healthcare fields, the GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in the U.S.A. (GLOSAS/USA) was established in October of 1988 in the State of New York.  It is a publicly supported, non-profit, educational service organization - in fact, a consortium of organizations that is dedicated to the use of evolving ICTs to further advance world peace through global communications.  GLOSAS fosters science- and technology-based economic development to improve the quality of life.

 

Political Contributions

 

As mentioned above, over the past three decades, GLOSAS/USA played a major pioneering role in extending U.S. data communication networks to other countries, particularly to Japan, and in the deregulation of the Japanese telecommunications policies regarding the use of e-mail through ARPANET, Telenet and this is now referred to as "closing the digital divide."  This contribution of GLOSAS/USA triggered the de-monopolization and privatization of Japanese telecommunications industries, and the liberalization of the telecommunication industry has now created a more enabling environment for economic and social development in many other countries.  This type of reasoning has since been emulated by many other countries; at present, more than 180 countries have Internet access, and more than 700 million people are using e-mail around the world.  Academic programs of universities in America and other industrialized countries now reach many under-served developing countries.  This may be an example of Gu-Kou-I-San (literally translating to "Even a stupid fellow can move a mountain," Figure 3 -- click here for larger display).

 

Global Lecture Hall (GLH)

 

Since the initial success of our global peace gaming on the US/Japan trade issues in 1986 mentioned above, I realized the necessity of accompanying graphics, diagrams, images and audio/video in addition to text-only e-mail communications via data telecom networks, particularly for e-learning courses of engineering and for continuing medical education (CME).  However, around that time and up to the early 1990s when advanced data compression technology enabled inexpensive videoconferencing and World Wide Web via Internet, graphics could only be transmitted with the combined use of fax via Plain Old Telephone Service (POTS) and analog satellite, both of which were expensive, particularly, for overseas connections.

 

GLOSAS then made another major contribution towards fostering global dialogue and creating learning environments with the innovative distance teaching trials that were conducted every year in a series of our Global Lecture Hall (GLH) tm multipoint-to-multipoint multimedia interactive videoconferencing, using affordable hybrid delivery technologies, spanning many countries around the world, from Korea and New Zealand to Finland, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and Brazil, etc.

 

Thanks to these efforts and also for initiating the movement of global e-learning since early 1980s, I received the prestigious Lord Perry Award for the Excellence in Distance Education in the fall of 1994 from Lord Perry, the founder of the U.K. Open University.  The two-year senior recipient of the same award was Sir Arthur C. Clark, the inventor of satellite.

 

See more in Chapter 2: "Global Lecture Hall (GLH)" in a book draft "Electronic Global University System and Services."

 

Three Components Necessary for Global Peace Gaming

 

The ultimate goal of GLOSAS/USA is to establish Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG).  To achieve this goal, we need the following three components;

 

(1)          Data telecommunication infrastructure:

 

Figure 4


As described above, GLOSAS helped to initiate the extension of packet-switching data telecommunication networks from the US to various overseas countries, particularly to Japan, albeit it was narrow-band, almost a quarter century ago.  As the second round, we are now forging ahead to construct Global Broadband Internet (GBI) (Figure 4 -- click here for larger diagram) along with the establishment of Global University System (GUS) around the world.

 

(2)          Communication media:

 

For collaboration among game players, it is necessary to have convenient communication media on a global scale.  As described above, in spite of fierce opposition from the Japanese government and commercial carriers, we pressed for the de-regulations of the Japanese telecommunications policies for the use of e-mail, albeit it was only text-oriented message exchange at that time.

 

After many demonstrations and testing of various videoconferencing technologies during GLHs, we are now forging ahead to implement multimedia through GBI -- even in wireless mode.

 

The deployment of GBI for multimedia requires huge capital investment.  We have prepared the availability of such funding from the Official Development Assistance (ODA) Fund of the Japanese government – see the Chapter "Creating Global University System" in Part II of this book "Global Peace Through The Global University System."

 

(3)          Game players:

 

Packet-switching technology facilitates the sharing of telecom media, bringing drastic cost reduction.  We are extending this principle to sharing of information and knowledge in e-learning and e-healthcare fields, by creating with the ODA fund a Global University System (GUS), which is a network of higher educational institutions in various regions of the world, e.g.;

  1. Amazon -- with the University of Amazona and 5 other federal universities in the Amazon region,
  2. Cuba and the Caribbean -- with the Havana Institute of Technology and the University of Havana,
  3. West Indies (Barbados, Trinidad, and Jamaica) -- with the University of West Indies,
  4. Malawi -- with the University of Malawai, UNDP, UNIDO, University of Milan,
  5. Uganda -- with the Islamic University of Uganda and the National Council for Science and Technology,
  6. Yugoslavia -- with the Mathematical Institute of Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts in Belgrade, Yugoslavia and the University of Macedonia and Thessaloniki Higher Technological Educational Institute in Greece, and others..

Currently institutions with faculty members who are participating in GUS development projects include the University of Tampere, UK Open University, 6 federal universities of Amazonia, Havana Institute of Technology, University of Malawi in Africa, McGill University in Canada, University of Tennessee in Knoxville, Cornell University, Yale University, Harvard University, Johns Hopkins University, University of Michigan, Montana State University, Houston Community College, University of Hawaii, Maui Community College, University of Milan, Catalunyan Open University, Concordia International University in Estonia, NEXT (Generation) Project with European universities and global commercial organizations at Cancer Research U.K., and others.

 

GUS member institutions will have globally distributed and yet interconnected inexpensive mini-supercomputers through Global Broadband Internet (GBI) to form massively parallel processing possible as if a single supercomputer.  This is, in a sense, to construct an advanced global neural computer network of a global brain for the proposed Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming project (GCEPG) with globally distributed computer simulation mode.

 

This will also become a core of a global knowledge forum for the exchange of ideas, information, knowledge and joint research and development, such as 3D animation of human body, DNA, high polymer, pharmacological molecule analysis, joint engineering design, etc.

 

                                                Figure 5

We hope that GUS member institutions (which are also members of GUS/UNESCO/UNITWIN Chair Program) will provide experts who will construct their databases and simulation models of their own fields and regions, and game players who will utilize the GCEPG for their study and analysis of environmental policies.

 

Along with the establishment of GUS with the GBI and E-Rate for K-12 schools, we will forge ahead to disseminate Systems Dynamics methodology in order to realize this GCEPG through a Global Neural Computer Network particularly, we would hope, with the participation of K-12 youngsters around the world.  They could collaboratively exercise systems analysis, policy-making, crisis management and negotiation skills for global socio-economic, energy and environmental issues via global Internet (Figure 5 -- click here for larger diagram).

 


Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG)

 

Need

 

The Bush administration withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change Treaty on global environmental protection, lest the US should be impeded against favorable conditions to the economies of Japan and European Union.  The U.S. administration then launched the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Strategic Plan, since a broad US government plan for climate research is required under a 1990 law, the Global Change Research Act.  The CCSP with $1.7 billion/year budget of the US Commerce Department announced the administration's plan in the fall of 2002 which called for a vast array of work through the rest of the decade on goals like improving computer simulations for forecasting climate change, integrating measurements of global change and clarifying regional effects of warming, etc. (The New York Times, 2003).  Trustworthy climate forecasts would be of great value for policymakers at all levels to help decision makers and the public determine how serious the problem is so that they can make clear choices about how to deal with it.

 

Thomas Graedel, professor of industrial ecology at Yale University and chairman of the panel of the National Research Council, the research arm of the National Academy of Sciences, which advises the government on scientific and technical matters, said that research in the past tried to gauge how the climate was changing and its effects on nature.  He also said, "future science must also focus on more applied research that can directly support decision-making (emphasis is mine).  Research is especially needed to improve our understanding of the possible impacts of climate change on ecosystems and human society as well as options for responding to -- and reducing -- these effects."  Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts also said "Global climate change affects every aspect of our daily lives, from land and water resources to agriculture and human health," (CNN.com, 2003).  In a sense, these voices call for stronger institutions of global decision-making mechanism.

 

Hans Blix, the chief weapons inspector of United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) said:

 

"…on many [other] issues the United States must be multilateral: … To me the question of the environment is more ominous than that of peace and war.  We will have regional conflicts and use of force, but world conflicts I do not believe will happen any longer.  But the environment, that is a creeping danger.  I'm more worried about global warming than I am of any major military conflict (Blix, 2003)"

[The New York Times, "QUOTE OF THE WEEK: Hans Blix's Greatest Fear," March 16, 2003]

 

There is therefore a clear need to help limited understanding of the underlying causes and impacts of climate change in order to set explicit prioritization and a management plan.  American efforts to refine advanced computer models used to project the effects of rising greenhouse-gas concentrations have so far fallen behind those overseas, partly because of a lack of coordination.  Because of the global nature of this matter, a unified approach is necessary with those other countries, and also because of the conflicting environmental issues in global scale, Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG) would be the best way to cope with the enormous planetary problems jointly by the people around the world.

 

Previous Works

 

Global Peace Gaming for Oil Crisis

 

I once proposed a global peace gaming to cope with the oil crisis in early 1970s in response to Meadows' "Limit to the Growth" mentioned above.  An outline of the hierarchical structure and distributed components of an integrated, interactive peace gaming/simulation system for energy, economics, and foreign trade in the USA and the Japanese sides was depicted in Figure 6 -- click here for larger diagram (Utsumi, 1974a).  Each block in the figure represented dissimilar computers in those countries interconnected through data telecom network (e.g., Internet nowadays).  These computers included simulation models designated in each block.  All models would be executed in concertedly via satellite and terrestrial telecommunication links.  For example, suppose pollution in Japan exceeded a certain allowable level, say, around 1977 on Figure 7 -- click here for larger diagram (Utsumi, 1974b), the Japanese expert watching it on the display unit would stop the entire simulation.  All participants, wherever they were located, would then try to find, with the use of the conferencing system, e.g., Forum MATRIX (Klemm, 2003), a consensus on a new set of pseudo-alternative policy parameters which would be executed until a new crisis appears, say, around 1984 on the figure.  The process would be repeated for rational policy analysis, based on facts and figures, and with international cooperation of experts in both countries.

 

Figure 6: Structure of Integrated Models and Communication Network
Boxes are dispersed, dissimilar computers around the global Internet.

 

Figure 7: Growth of Japanese Petrochemical Industry

 

AppleMark

Use of Global Gaming

 

The purpose of an interactive gaming mechanism is to help find appropriate alternative policies by establishing consensus among participating parties.  It is suggested here that globally distributed computer simulation should be tested interactively with the game player inserting pseudo-policy parameters into the models whenever necessary, during the execution of simulation.  This is called peace gaming/simulation (Utsumi, 1977) similar to war games practiced by military strategists (Schram et al., 1971).  With the advent of global broadband Internet and standard interface protocols for interconnecting various dispersed, dissimilar host computers, the potential exists for ensuring the coordination of international efforts by providing more frequent communications and an environment for shared development, enabling more credible simulation study than was previously possible.

 

It is now possible to combine existing technologies to make sophisticated and more holistic explorations of various scenarios for solving global social problems.  Many small computers in different countries can be interconnected, through globally distributed network and information processing, into modeling and simulation instruments for playing peace games on the scale of Pentagon war games (McLeod 1987).

 

About two decades ago, I proposed the development of global decision support system with globally distributed interactive gaming simulation for global socio-energy-economic system with the use of global data telecommunication network (e.g., Internet nowadays) and interactive gaming simulation.  Interconnection of dissimilar computers and models for peace gaming on energy, resources and environmental (ERE) systems, architectures for linking heterogeneous computers were outlined.  The reference also described communication procedures through multi-party gaming simulation (Utsumi and DeVita, 1982).

 

I then examined the application of the new development in the area of distributed systems and Computer Aided Communication (CAC) to the analysis of the global sociological and economical issues.  Based on the review of the past attempts and experiences with model acceptance and validation, meaningful and credible simulation has to be implemented as a modeling network composed of a large number of locally developed and verified models.  No single model, developed by a local group of experts has a chance for universal acceptance when it deals with controversial and confrontation-prone area such as global resource allocation and economical policies.

 

Yet, a comprehensive model of global resources, ecology, and economy is needed for the rational management of ecosystems and for economic cooperation between nations and economic blocks.  As a solution to the dilemma between the need for a unified model and a diversity of views and the special interests of diverse groups, a public Open Modeling Network (OMN) was proposed which would consist of models developed by local experts interconnected by global Internet (Utsumi, et al., 1986).

 

The problem of managing the variety of heterogeneous models, each operating locally, yet affected from time to time by the results of similar runs at other locations, was compared to Scheduling Algorithm problem which is required by all asynchronous distributed systems consisting of the distributed communicating processors, in particular the application of Time Warp algorithm (Jefferson, 1984) and the Virtual Time concept that allows organization of the information exchange among dispersed, dissimilar computational resources with asynchronous and parallel executions.

 

The GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation (GLOSAS) Project proposes to utilize the semantic benefits of gaming simulation on a global scale to aid decision makers in appreciating the impact of their decisions on interwoven global problems, i.e., the construction of Globally Distributed Decision Support System (GDDSS) with Distributed Computer Simulation Systems (DCSS), which deals with coordination of the distributed sub-models and their experts via the global Internet for global crisis and ecology management for plus sum, peace game.

 

After making those comprehensive project proposals (Utsumi and DeVita, 1982 and Utsumi, et al, 1986), I embarked on the systematic testing and successful demonstrations of various hybrid telecom infrastructures by way of the "Global Lecture Hall (GLH)."  GLH consists of multipoint-to-multipoint, interactive multimedia videoconferencing almost every year spanning around the globe, as mentioned above.  The following are descriptions of necessary components and recent developments, which may be integrated into further achievement of the GCEPG Project.

 

Computer Simulation Models

 

Socio-Economic Models

 

Since I created Summer Computer Simulation Conference (SCSC) in Denver, CO in 1970, myriad of simulation models in almost every facets of our globe appeared.  However, the four categories depicted in Figure 5 above are to be the major ones to be dealt with by our GCEPG.  There are also three major methodologies of socio-economic modelings; (1) econometric modeling (initiated by Professor Lawrence R. Klein of University of Pennsylvania and an economic Nobel Laureate), (2) input-output modeling (initiated by Professor Wassily Leontief of New York University, an economic Nobel Laureate and a panelist of our Nagoya/Japan GLH videoconferencing on environmental issues from New York), and (3) system dynamics modeling (initiated by Professor Jay W. Forrester of M.I.T.).  Onishi compiled about 20 socio-economic models of various kinds in his new book "UNESCO EOLSS (Encyclopedia of Life Support System) Theme 1.47: Integrated Global Models for Sustainable Development," which is to be published in the summer of 2003 (Onishi, 2003).

 

Prof. Onishi has already indicated his strong willingness to cooperate with this GCEPG project as providing his Futures of Global Interdependence (FUGI) model.  When we conducted a US/Japan foreign trade peace gaming in 1986, we used it as a single simulation model residing in a supercomputer in Tokyo and we asked him to execute his simulation model with the alternative policy parameters according to the progress of our gaming scenario, as mentioned above.

 

However, this time, his FUGI's sub-models will be split and be dispersed to the countries where the sub-models belong.  We will arrange GUS', which are members of our GUS/UNESCO/UNITWIN NETWORKING Chair Program, to host the sub-models of their countries – along with construction and maintenance of its databases, revision and modification of their sub-models, and supply of game players in cooperation with their overseas counterparts through the global neural computer network.

 

Prof. Forrester has also indicated to me that his System Dynamics Group already constructed a US national model, which may be used in conjunction with FUGI model.  The Millennium Institute in Arlington, VA also has national models of Bangladesh, China, Ghana, Guyana, Italy, Malawi, Somaliland, Tunisia, and the United States.  As soon as we establish our GUS in these countries, we may ask their cooperation to tie together those national models.  Dr. G. O. Barney, the founder of the institute, once presented their work from his office during our "Global Lecture Hall (GLH)" videoconference held in Florianopolis, Brazil in the summer of 1996.

 

As millenniums of human history tell, those people in Central America, Peru, Egypt, India, China, etc., who could predict future with the celestial movements, assisted the decision-makings of kings and rulers.  Future leaders of global village need to have the capability of understanding the computer simulation of socio-economic-environmental system, since it will assist them (hopefully, even at local level) with rational analysis and critical thinking basing on "facts and figures."

 

Climate Simulation Model

 

Earth Simulator built by NEC at US$350 million can simulate environment of the entire earth with the use of real-life climate data from satellites and ocean buoys.  Japanese scientists have already completed a forecast of global ocean temperatures for the next 50 years, and a full set of climate predictions was ready by the end of 2002.  "Soon, instead of speculating about the possible environmental impact of, say, the Kyoto accord, policymakers will be able to plug its parameters into the virtual Earth, then skip ahead 1,000 years to get a handle on what effect those policies might have.  That kind of concrete data could revolutionize environmental science.  By digitally cloning the Earth, we might just be able to save it." (TIME.com, "Best Inventions, 2002")

 

This simulator resides in a single purpose supercomputer which is the most powerful one ever built.  Previously, the fastest computer in the world was an American military machine that can perform 7.2 trillion calculations per second.  The Earth Simulator runs at more than 35 trillion calculations per second, almost five times faster.  In fact, it is as powerful as the next 12 fastest supercomputers in the world put together.

 

Albeit the world acclaim on its speed, this computer is based on vector processing, which is the old fashioned digital computation mechanism.  Because of its price and size (four tennis courts), we cannot expect to mass-produce this simulator in the near future to install in every participating countries of our GCEPG project.  Luckily, as taking the principle of "Leave the Driving to Us," the motto of the Greyhound Bus Company mentioned above, the distributed computer simulation with the network of the clusters of inexpensive personal computers is now on the horizon, as I have continued to advocate since the fall of 1972.

 

Beowulf Mini Supercomputer with Cluster Computing

 

In contrast to the single supercomputer as the Earth Simulator, the current and future trend of high performance computing is to build a cluster of personal computers with inexpensive off-the-shelf (or even second-hand, used) PCs.  The parallel processing of this cluster system divides a complex problem into smaller component tasks, as similar to distributed computer simulation system mentioned above.  This scheme of PC cluster is now called the Beowulf mini supercomputer.

 

Beowulf was the name of a lean, mean hero of medieval legend who defeated the giant monster Grendel by ripping off one of the creature's arms.  This name has been widely adopted to refer to any low-cost cluster constructed from commercially available personal computers (Hargrove, et al, 2001).

 

Incidentally, David Miller, founder of Denelco in Denver, CO constructed the Heterogeneous Element Processor (HEP) with 50 Central Processing Units (CPUs) in a single box, which was the first commercially available parallel processing supercomputer in early 1970s.  Prior to this, he consulted me of his venture.  My response was why not distribute those CPUs around the world and connect them with global data telecom network, e.g., DARPANet (Department of Defense/Advanced Research Project Agency Network), which was the predecessor of Internet.  My suggestion (which is a similar one to global grid computing network of nowadays – see below) (McLeod, 2000) was based on my experiences with analog and hybrid computers over a dozen years by then, i.e., as making analogy between computing elements of analog computer with CPUs of digital computer, and of wiring on the former to telecom network.  I had a privilege of exclusively using then the world largest hybrid computer (made by Bechman Instrument Co.) for a half year, which was later used for the simulation of the first lunar landing by Eagle at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in late 1960s.  Both the hybrid computer and HEP were designed by Maxwell Gilliland.  Almost two decades ago, I had introduced HEP to NEC, but they seemed not having followed its model for the construction of Earth Simulator mentioned above.

 

This cluster concept promises to revolutionize the computing field by offering tremendous processing power to any research group, school or business.  This is, in a sense, a poor-man's approach since the cluster can often be built with less than $50,000, which is about one tenth the price of a comparable commercial supercomputer.  Compared with the exorbitant price of Earth Simulator at $350 million, those commodity clusters – networked arrays of standard computing subsystems – are perceived as the only economically viable pathway: they require little additional development in spite of the programming difficulties and communications delays inherent in using clustered systems.

 

The Beowulf concept (PC-Cluster) is an empowering force.  It wrests high-level computing away from the privileged few and makes low-cost parallel-processing systems available to those with modest resources.  Research groups, high schools, colleges or small businesses can build or buy their own Beowulf clusters, realizing the promise of a supercomputer in every basement (Hargrove, et al, 2001).

 

As interconnecting those Beowulf mini supercomputers around the world via Global Broadband Internet (GBI) (see Figure 8 below), researchers of GUS can conduct joint research across continents and oceans as tapping into a "computational grid" that will work like a power grid: users will be able to obtain processing power just as easily as they now get electricity.  This is the next future of Internet development.

 

Grid Computing Network

 

Rapid improvements in communications technologies (e.g., broadband Internet) are leading many to consider more decentralized approaches to the problem of computing power.  Internet computing seeks to create powerful distributed computing systems with global reach and supercomputer capabilities for communities to share resources as they tackle common goals.  Science today is increasingly collaborative and multidisciplinary, and it is not unusual for teams to span institutions, states, countries and continents.  E-mail and the web provide basic mechanisms that allow such groups to work together.  But what if they could link their data, computers, sensors and other resources into a single virtual laboratory?  So-called Grid technologies seek to make this possible, by providing the protocols, services and software development kits needed to enable flexible, controlled resource sharing on a large scale (Foster, I., 2000).

 

Grid technology takes Cluster Computing to the next level by providing a distributed architecture that delivers computational and data resources over the Web in much the same way that electricity is delivered over the power grid - making resources available to users when and where they are needed.  The vision of scientific computing in the future relies on computational grids -- powerful processors, research instruments, and huge data archives linked by fast networks and advanced software.  These grids will be as easy to use as the Web and as convenient as turning on your kitchen faucet to get water (Online, 2001).

 

Grid computing refers to computing in a distributed networked environment in which computing and data resources are located throughout the network.  Grid infrastructure provides basic infrastructure for computations that integrate geographically disparate resources, create a universal source of computing power that supports dramatically new classes of applications.  Globus, Infospheres and DARPA CoABS are efforts, which are now underway to build computational grids (Cybenko, G., et al, 1999).

 

Grid Computing is one of the fastest-growing trends in high-end scientific and engineering computing, which builds on the result of previous and ongoing research in networking, distributed computing, seamless computing, meta computing, web technologies, and other related topics.  Like the Web, it has grown from an education and government R&D concept into a major component in any company's strategy (Sun.com, no date).  The grid is an emerging infrastructure that will fundamentally change the way we think about and use computing.  Grid computation is foreseen to be one of the most critical yet challenging technologies to meet the exponentially growing demands for high-performance computing in a large variety of scientific disciplines.  Especially the universal connectivity provided through the Internet gives hope that the vision depicted by a Grid Computing can become reality in day-to-day production outside a closed research community.

 

Designed to support and address the needs of multiple sites and organizations, Global Grid Computing Network provides the power of distributed resources to users anywhere in the world for computing and collaboration.  Individuals or organizations can use them, as sending overflow work to a grid provider.  Or, multiple parties can work together as sharing data, crossing their boundaries with ease.  Grid computing is computation, collaboration and communication over the advanced web.  It's a model for problem solving, through resource pooling in virtual systems (Gentzsch, W., no date).

 

Trans-Continental Grid Computing Network

 

            Case 1: TeraGrid.  In the summer of 2002, the US National Science Foundation began installing the hardware for the TeraGrid, a transcontinental supercomputer network that should do for computing power what the Internet did for documents.  First, clusters of high-end microcomputers were set up at four sites: the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; the U.S. Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory outside Chicago; Caltech in Pasadena, CA; and the San Diego Supercomputer Center at the University of California, San Diego.  Then, by early 2003, those four clusters would be networked together so tightly that they would behave as a single entity.

 

This virtual computer will rip through problems at up to 13.6 trillion floating-point operations per second, or teraflops.  Such speed will enable scientists to tackle some of the most computationally intensive tasks on the research docket -- from problems in protein folding that will form the basis for new drug designs to climate modeling to deducing the content and behavior of the cosmos from astronomical data.

 

But more than that, the TeraGrid will be a prime example of what has come to be known as "grid computing"--the massive integration of computer systems to offer performance unattainable by any single machine (Waldrop, 2002).

 

            Case 2: Maui Community College in Hawaii.  With a fund from the US National Science Foundation (NSF), Maui Community College in Hawaii is now forming a consortium with four community colleges in the US mainland, each of which has High Performance Computing (HPC) facility.  They are to establish the Advanced Technology Education Centers of Excellence for High Performance Computing (HPC) of which Beowolf mini super computers will be connected together through broadband Internet to act as a single supercomputer.  Each of their members was chosen because of the diversity of student populations, partnerships with regional business and industry, and potential four-year college affiliations.

 

Maui Community College as the National Center will develop skill set standards and competencies needed for certifying HPC technicians and for developing an articulated Associate Degree (two year, undergraduate) program in HPC technology.  The Regional Education and Training Centers (RETCs) at each community college will develop curriculum in HPC Technology that will articulate with four-year college information science, computer science, and high performance computing technology programs and will include the establishment of 2 + 2 agreements with regional high schools Tech Prep Programs (Converse, R., no date)

 

The "2 + 2 agreements" are agreements between community colleges and high schools that allow students to take community college courses during the junior and senior year and get credit both at high school and at college.

 

For the realization of the proposed Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG) Project, we would like to have each of the member universities of our GUS/UNESCO/UNITWIN Networking Chair Program equipped with Beowulf mini-supercomputer, follow the model of Maui Community College, and then extend jointly with GUS' around the world the network of such mini-supercomputers (which are now starting to exist in the US as mentioned above) further to various overseas countries (e.g., Amazon region of Brazil, Cuba and the Caribbean, African countries, etc.) via global broadband Internet -- see also Figure 8 below.

 

Global Grid Computing Network for GCEPG Project

 

We face a basic dilemma on the conduct of GCEPG Project.  John McLeod, the founder of the Society for Computer Simulation (which I named) once said that the successful simulation requires the simulation model to be very close to its "simuland" (a term coined by McLeod), which is the object for which the model is to simulate.  Namely, decision-makers must be concerned with the issues and matters of their constituents within the boundaries of regions, countries, municipalities, and counties for which they are elected and have their jurisdictions.  Even though distributed simulation models we advocate may represent their concerns, they will be confined within their boundaries and borders.  On the other hand, climate simulation cannot, by nature, regard the boundaries and borders, i.e., they have to be continuous phenomena.  For example, dust storm from Sahara often causes trouble to Amazon rain forest or coral in the Caribbean sea; the other dust storm from Gobi desert causes respiratory disease in Korea and Japan and even reaching Denver, CO or Australia; or forestry and fishery in Scandinavia are dying due to acid rain caused by industrial smoke from European countries, etc.  Problems are now too intertwined to be well resolved in a system consisting of nation-states, in which citizens give their primary, and near exclusive, loyalty to their own nation-state, rather than to the largely global community.

 

The best remedy and hope to cope with this modeling difficulties stemming on the basic difference between discrete, boundary-oriented socio-economic-environmental simulation and continuous climate simulation would be to accomplish distributed computer simulation networks of both of them with dispersed mini supercomputers in parallel fashion and both networks to be interlinked at appropriate locations (red lines in Figure 8 -- click here for larger display).  The network of dispersed mini supercomputers (each of them with socio-economic-environmental model of their localities) will work as a single simulation of global economy.  In a similar fashion, another network of dispersed mini supercomputers (each of them with climate model of their region) will work as a single simulation of global climate.  Both networks can be linked in such a way that global socio-economic-environmental simulation will work closely together with global climate simulation.  The decision-making parameters can directly be fed into nearby mini supercomputers for its regional socio-economic-environmental simulation model, yet having effects on both global simulation networks.  This will be a perfect democratic participatory of global simulation.  This will then eliminate the need of such a giant Earth Simulator mentioned above.

 

Figure 8: Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming Networks

 

Globally Distributed Climate Simulation System

 

 

Globally Distributed Socio-Economic-Environmental Simulation System

 

This is a way that I also envisioned almost three decades ago (McLeod, 2000), i.e., a global neural computer network (which was mentioned above) with the use of globally distributed computer simulation system for globally distributed decision support system.  Such a network of mini-supercomputers around the world can also be used by researchers, even in developing countries to perform with their counterparts in developed countries for joint collaborative researches on various subjects, e.g., micro-biology, meteorology, chemical molecular study, DNA analysis, medicine/bioscience, 3D human anatomy, agriculture, commerce and finance, nanotechnology, advanced engineering, astronomy, etc. (Sterling, 2001).

 

In a sense, our GUS/UNESCO/UNITWIN Networking Chair project aims to construct global scale knowledge forum with advanced Information and Communication Technology (ICT), i.e., with the use of massive parallel processors of globally distributed and yet interconnected mini-supercomputers through global neural computer network.  This will be a paradigm shift of research and development in global scale, out of the so-called "Ivory Tower" approach.

 

Access Grid Project

 

During the execution of the proposed GCEPG, it would be essential to have close human contacts among model builders, game players, and technical support groups, not only by asynchronous computer conferencing but also by audio/video conferencing.  This need is the same for any other joint global scale research and development projects mentioned above.  Subsequently, as soon as we establish GUS around the world and connect them with Global Broadband Internet (GBI), we will associate with the Access Grid Project.

 

The Access Grid (AG) is the ensemble of resources that can be used to support human interaction across the grid.  It consists of multimedia display, presentation and interactive environments, interfaces to grid middleware, and interfaces to visualization environments.  The Access Grid will support large-scale distributed meetings, collaborative work sessions, seminars, lectures, tutorials and training.  The Access Grid design point is group-to-group communication (thus differentiating it from desktop to desktop based tools that focus on individual communication).

 

During our "Global Lecture Hall (GLH)" videoconference at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville in July, 1994, a professor at the US Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA demonstrated multicasting videoconferencing via broadband Internet with a 3D ocean current model of El Nino in the South Pacific, which was broadcast throughout the world, including Japan, an international conference on e-learning in Moscow, etc.  During our international workshop/conference on "Emerging Global Electronic Distance Learning (EGEDL/'99)" at the University of Tampere in Finland in August of 1999, we demonstrated NetMeeting point-to-point videoconferencing via broadband Internet with an inexpensive desktop camera.  Both demonstrations produced superb audio/video quality, indicated the vital necessity of having broadband Internet.

 

The Access Grid environment must enable both formal and informal group interactions.  Large-format displays integrated with intelligent or active meeting rooms are a central feature of the Access Grid nodes.  Access Grid nodes are "designed spaces" that explicitly contain the high-end audio and visual technology needed to provide a high-quality compelling user experience.

 

The Access Grid complements the computational grid; indeed, the Access Grid node concept is specifically targeted at providing "group" access to the Grid.  This access may be for remote visualization or interactive applications, or for utilizing the high-bandwidth environment for virtual meetings and events.

 

Access Grid Nodes provide a research environment for the development of distributed data and visualization corridors and for the study of issues relating to collaborative work in distributed environments.

 

Anticipated Difficulties

 

Unavoidable Latency and Time Warp Scheduling Algorithm

 

Oxygen is extremely vital to sustain most of the life forms on earth.  Global warming due to greenhouse effect is caused by carbon dioxide gas emitted by human activities.  Carbon dioxide is converted back to oxygen by plants.  Amazon rain forest is said to cover, by acreage, 20 % of world total forest.  If the Amazon forest will be denuded by thrash and burn cultivation technique, all human will be choked to death with the lack of sufficient oxygen.  Namely, Amazon rain forest is the vital treasure for our human's survival in the future.  This is one of our major reasons why we are forging ahead to create a GUS/Amazon/Brazil which will be centered at the University of Amazonia as mentioned above, so that they can host a Beowulf mini supercomputer with their region's socio-economic-environmental simulation model (Utsumi, T., et al, 2003).

 

Aforementioned Trans-Continental Grid Computing Networks (e.g, TeraGrid) connects supercomputers around the US through terrestrial, very expensive higher speed Internet (e.g., 165 Mbps at Maui Community College, etc.) for synchronous grid computing.  This is a rich-man's approach, and we cannot expect to extend it to various developing countries (e.g., Amazon or African countries) in the foreseeable future, though many of scientific papers optimistically mention of the advent of the "global" grid computing network.  We have to rely on digital satellite linkage for it, but such a linkage via a satellite transponder would cost almost $1 to 1.5 million per year for leasing.  Also, though Pelton predicts the advent of giga bps digital satellite in the future (Pelton, 2003), all geo-synchronous satellite necessitates about 0.3 second for the round-trip of signal.

 

Subsequently, even considering unavoidable time difference around the globe and head-scratching time of game players, this will require us to utilize asynchronous global grid computing with Time Warp scheduling algorithm mentioned above, as compromising between slower Internet lines and their costs (Utsumi, et al, 1986).  If this is the case not only for Amazon, but also for other GUS components especially in developing countries, the results of regional socio-economic-environmental simulation may be collected at specified time intervals by the Earth Simulator (mentioned above) till the time when the global distributed climate simulation network of Figure 8 would be established, and have it simulate global climate for the next time interval and then to distribute the computational results to every participating regional socio-economic-environmental simulation mini supercomputers for their subsequent policy analysis.  This asynchronous scheme would also benefit researchers of other various subjects in developing countries.

 

Multilateral Funding

 

Almost two decades ago, the Japanese government embarked on the 5th Generation Computer Project to build an artificial intelligence computer with $500 million.  My GCEPG Project was the second contender, but did not get funded.  Nonetheless, I carried it on with the belief that "Even a stupid fellow can move a mountain," as mentioned above.

 

Late Dr. Hiroshi Inose, Director General of the National Center for Science Information System (NACSIS), Laureate of Culture Medal (highest in Japan) and a Laureate of Marconi Award (the highest in telecom field) then commented on our GUS and GCEPG projects as follows;

 

"I ask to those people who wish to build artificial intelligence machine; ‘Which of the machine or human brain is superior?'  Everybody answers, ‘Of course, human brain is superior.'  I then say to them ‘If so, rather than spending huge money to develop such machine, wouldn't it be wise and beneficial to world society to spend such money for education of excellent, capable youngsters in developing countries?'"

 [Nikkei Shimbun (an equivalent to Wall Street Journal) (February 9, 1992)]

He agreed with me in 1998 that the global proliferation of Internet came to the stage of political matter more than technical development.  This culminated with the Japanese government's pledges of $15 billion at the Okinawa Summit in July of 2000 and another $2 billion at the G8 Summit in Canada in 2002, for closing the so-called digital divide, especially in education and healthcare fields in developing countries.

 

The Japanese government is now switching its ODA policy from demand-oriented to supply-oriented, i.e., they are more concerned with what benefits can be brought to Japan with the ODA funds.  This is the same trend with other major governmental funding sources, e.g., the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), European Commission, etc., and it is understandable due to its nature of expending their taxpayers' money.  However, because of our planetary issues, we need to have a new international, multilateral funding mechanism, which can transcend all conventional national boundaries.  This is the direction Hans Blix suggested as mentioned above.

 

 

Conclusions


Clearly, our GCEPG Project is ambitious due to its scope and nature. Any one group, university, or national government cannot achieve it. As mentioned above, every step we have taken since its inception three decades ago was in the right direction. For example, we initiated and/or helped on;

  1. creation of Summer Computer Simulation Conference (SCSC), most advanced and authoritative conference in computer simulation field, -- which I named,
  2. creation of "Advanced Computer Simulation Language (ACSL)," most widely used continuous system simulation language, -- which I named,
  3. “closing digital divide” as introducing Telenet (a predecessor of Internet) to Japan, etc.,
  4. deregulation of telecom policies on the use of e-mail,
  5. de-monopolization and privatization of telecom industries,
  6. end of life-time employment system in Japan, which was triggered with the proliferated use of e-mail,
  7. global neural (or grid) computer network,
  8. “Global Lecture Hall (GLH)” videoconferencing,
  9. use of voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP),
  10. use of wireless broadband Internet,
  11. global e-learning movement,
  12. Global University System project,
  13. pledges of Japanese government’s ODA fund which recently triggered the global movement on the closing of digital divide, etc.

We can expect further numerous spin-off benefits in various fields in global e-learning and e-healthcare. The program will however need substantial collaborative contribution of ideas, expertise, technology resources, and money from multiple sources. We invite those who value the vision of this Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming to join us in this urgently necessary project for human survival.


The proposed global peace gaming system can become an educational tool for the students of international affairs and political science.  Moreover, such a system can also become the fundamental foundation for our Global University System with students and faculty members of various countries, which will promote mutual understanding among people of the world.  Education of youngsters/adults on a global scale is the best future investment for world peace and progress.  Senator Fulbright once said that learning together and working together are the first steps toward world peace.

 

 

Addendum to Figure 2

 

My schoolmate at Montana State University was Dr. Rafael Bozeman Rodriguez, Former President of Trinity College of Quezon City in the Philippines.  He once told me a story of his uncle who was a chief of resistance during the Japanese occupation in the World War II (WW-II).  One day he was caught and taken to the Japanese army camp.  His family was deeply afraid and worried if he might be be-headed.  In the middle of night, they heard loud voices at their house entrance.  When they opened the door, they were totally astonished to find him with a captain of the Japanese military police.  Both of them were completely drunk and singing joyously a school song of Yale University – they happened to be classmates.

 

The father of my wife, Hisae, was born in Montreal, Canada.  When he went back to Tokyo, he studied at a French-speaking high school.  At the time when the WW-II ended, he was the president of "Malay Shimbun," a Japanese newspaper in Singapore.  To his surprise, he happened to meet his old high school classmate there, who was stationed as the Commanding General of the British Army.  They renewed their friendship once again.  Since then her father received special favor from the general until he returned to Tokyo.

 

These real stories of saving life even in wartime tell us how important it is to have trustful friendship among the people of the world with mutual understanding in early age of their education as much as possible.

 

The Chinese proverb says, "I hear and I forget, I see and I remember, I do and I understand!"  Another Chinese proverb says, "Knowledge gained with interaction becomes wisdom."  E-mail and multimedia World Wide Web of Internet so far contributed significantly to the world society on the dissemination of information.  The next phase of the Internet development with global neural (or grid) computer network should be the globally collaborative experiential learning and constructive creation of wisdom with interactive actions on virtual reality simulation models of joint global research and development projects on various subjects mentioned above.  This will promote trustful friendship among youngsters around the world to realize the Knowledge Society of the 21st century, and their collective creativity will enlarge the size of pie for stakeholders to reach peaceful win-win consequences.  Another Chinese proverb says, "Acquiring knowledge is a joy, and sharing knowledge is an ultimate joy."

 

I sincerely hope to foster such friendship among the people of the world with our GUS and GCEPG projects for inevitable emergence of a global civilization.

 

 

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Author Biographical Sketch

 

Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D., P.E.
Founder and
Vice President for Technology & Coordination
Global University System (GUS)
Chairman, GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in the U.S.A.
(GLOSAS/USA)
43-23 Colden Street
Flushing, NY 11355-3998 U.S.A.
Tel: +1-718-939-0928

Fax: +1-718-939-0656
utsumi@columbia.edu
http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/

 

Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D., P.E., is Chairman of GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in the USA (GLOSAS/USA) and Vice President for Technology and Coordination of the Global University System (GUS) <http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS>.  He is the 1994 Laureate of the Lord Perry Award for Excellence in Distance Education.  His public services have included political work for deregulation of global telecommunications and the use of e-mail through ARPANET, Telenet and Internet; helping extend American university courses to developing countries; the conduct of innovative distance teaching trials with "Global Lecture Hall" multipoint-to-multipoint multimedia interactive videoconferences using hybrid technologies; as well as lectures, consultation, and research in process control, management science, systems science and engineering at the University of Michigan, the University of Pennsylvania, M.I.T. and many other universities, governmental agencies, and large firms in Japan and other countries.  Among more than 150 related scientific papers and books are presentations to the Summer Computer Simulation Conferences (which he created and named) and the Society for Computer Simulation International.  He is a member of various scientific and professional groups, including the Chemists Club (New York, NY); Columbia University Seminar on Computer, Man and Society (New York, NY); Fulbright Association (Washington, D.C.); International Center for Integrative Studies (ICIS) (New York, NY); and Society of Satellite Professionals International (Washington, D.C.).  Dr. Utsumi received his Ph.D. Ch.E. from Polytechnic University in New York, M.S.Ch.E. from Montana State University, after study at the University of Nebraska on a Fulbright scholarship.  His professional experiences in simulation and optimization of petrochemical and refinery processes were at Mitsubishi Research Institute, Tokyo; Stone & Webster Engineering Corp., Boston; Mobil Oil Corporation and Shell Chemical Company, New York; and Asahi Chemical Industries, Inc., Tokyo.