<<20091021-B>>
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Distingushed Professor Emeritus Murray Turoff
Information Systems
New Jersey Institute of Technology
Newark, NJ 07102
turoff@njit.edu
http://is.njit.edu/turoff
References:
(a) (20091019)
Constructing Indian Early Warning System (IEWS) and then Western Asian
Early Warning System (WAEWS)
http://tinyurl.com/yjv3bnw
(b) Takeshi Utsumi, GLOSAS/USA
"Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG)"
http://tinyurl.com/k2c7a
(c) Utsumi, T., (2008), "Development History of Peace Gaming and Global
University System," (September
7, 2008)
http://tinyurl.com/bdcjha
(d) (20091014) (1) Possible connections for the creation of the Middle East
and Middle East Early Warning System (MEEWS) and (2) Flyer on "Grand
Challenges on Modeling and Simulation for International Cooperation on Crises
and Risky Enterprises"
http://tinyurl.com/ykavugs
Dear Murray:
(1) Many thanks for your msg (ATTACHMENT I) in response to Reference (a) above.
(2) You kindly suggested me to read ÒThe Limits to the GrowthÓ by Donella and
Dennis Meadows, et al, of the Club of Rome which was published by the ReadersÕ
Digests in the spring of 1972. You then propose that their model would
better be updated by someone.
(3) In the mid-1960s, I took the course of System Dynamics (SD) under Prof. Jay
W. Forrester of Sloan School of Management of Massachusetts Institute of
Technology in Boston, MA.
I was then offered a Senior Research Scientist position at the Lincoln Lab of
M.I.T. to join in the System Dynamics Group, but I did not take it because of
the following two reasons -- if I took the job, I was surely ended up to be
with DennisÕ group;
(a) Their salary was
not much compared with the one at the Stone and Webster Engineering Company in
downtown Boston, -- this company constructed the world first nuclear power
plant in Springfield, MA, but I worked in their Ethylene Division,
With
this company, I could have an opportunity to serve as a General Chairman of the
Summer Computer Simulation Conference (SCSC) later, in addition to basic design
job of many ethylene plants in Japan (US$1 billion/unit) — see more
below.
(b) I was not quite convinced with the technical validity of the System
Dynamics methodology.
For
example, though the SD is the first attempt to use the Cybernetics Theory with
positive and negative feedbacks to social systems, the social systems have
intangible factors which quantification is almost impossible — e.g., the
famous or ÒINÓ-famous ÒQuality of LifeÓ index, etc. Compared to this, the
process control simulation of the ethylene plant was much rigorous, logical and
easy.
BTW,
we are now working with Millennium Institute which was originated by G. O.
Barney, who was once a member of DennisÕ group and my long-time friend since
then.
(4) As mentioned in the References (c) and (d) above, I served General
Chairmanship of the 1971 Summer Computer Simulation Conference (SCSC) of the
Society of Computer Simulation (SCS) in Boston.
I invited DennisÕ group to the Macro-system Simulation session, though it was
almost 10 months before the publication of the ÒLimits of the GrowthÓ book
— Dennis was not at the session because of his travelling, but his group
members, e.g., J¿rgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III, were there to
present their project status, basing on the World3 model, which was firstly
composed by Prof. Forrester on his way back from the mtg of the Club of Rome.
As soon as I heard their talk, I thought how a hell their half dozen
specialists/researchers could claim to know everything of the world.
Japan is a part of the WORLD and Japanese should know much better than
they did as far as about Japan, so that Japan side should be modeled by
Japanese.
This was clearly the violation of the basic Iron Rule #1 of simulation, i.e.,
ÒMake simulation as much close to SIMULAND as possible.Ó When such a very
basic rule was violated, their simulation outcome was not totally credible and
acceptable;
Lo and Behold,
immediately after the publication of the book, flurries of severe criticism
appeared in SIMULATION, the official monthly journal of the SCS, the most
authoritative professional journal on computer simulation — accusing the
accuracies of the data used in the model. One of them was by a Dutch
economist as saying that Yamani, Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia was at the
Harvard MBA, and read the book. He then twisted arm as gathering OPEC
ministers and raised crude oil price from US$2/barrel to $8/barrel, which
resulted to the so-called first oil shock and subsequent world economy crisis
with millions of job loses — I was shocked with this article, but at the
same time, I was very surprised to learn the power of computer simulation.
Namely, computer simulationists have tremendous social responsibility —
like high priests of Inca dynasties.
(5) I then presented my first paper on our Globally Collaborative Environmental
Peace Gaming (GCEPG) project (Reference (b) above) at the First International
Conference on Computer Communication (ICCC) in Washington, DC in October 1972
(Figure 6 of Reference (b) above);
An outline of the hierarchical structure and distributed components of an
integrated, interactive peace gaming/simulation system for energy, economics,
and foreign trade in the USA and the Japanese sides was depicted in this
diagram. Each block in the figure represented dissimilar computers in
those countries interconnected through data telecom network (e.g., Internet
nowadays). These computers included simulation models designated in each block.
All models would be executed in concertedly via satellite and terrestrial
telecommunication links, as if a single global scale super computer with
massively parallel processors.
This was the starting point of our so-called Òdistributed simulationÓ with
distributed system dynamics simulation models to comply with the basic
Iron-Rule of simulation, which Prof. Jay W. Forrester, originator of the System
Dynamics methodology, called the ÒEnhanced System Dynamics.Ó
At that conference, I encountered with the followings, which changed my life;
(a) demo of
packet-switching ARPANET (a predecessor of Internet), which was invented by Dr.
Paul Baran.
I
then worked on its extension to many Asian countries, especially to Japan
— see the subsequent development history in the Reference (c) above.
(b) demo of computer
mediated conferencing system — predecessor of your Electronic Information
Exchange System (EIES) at the New Jersey Institute of Technology.
You
may recall our lunch at a steak-house with you and Prof. Louis (Pete)
Mayfields, who was my prof. at Montana State University and an officer at the
National Science Foundation at that time.
After this lunch, you took me to the attic of the Executive Office of the
President, which is located at the west of the West-Wing of the White House,
and showed me a PDP/11 which was conducting the world first computer mediated
conferencing system for the Wage and Price Control Program of the Nixon
Administration.
(6) After attending the 1972 SCSC in San Diego, California, I visited Professor
Bob Noel of the Political Science Department of the University of California in
Santa Barbara. I saw a conference room with a wall- size world map, and an
American flag standing by. It was like a situation room of a governmental
agency.
Professor Noel was conducting a political gaming on international affairs using
ARPANET. He assigned several different schools to act as the governments of the
United States, Soviet Union, Japan, China, etc. Students had to study about the
assigned countries before the start of the game.
I inquired about the actor for Japan, and was told that it was the University
of Southern California. I remarked that: "However hard Americans may study
about Japan, they cannot think as Japanese, since they eat steak with knife and
fork while Japanese eat noodles with chopsticks."
So I proposed that Professor Noel invite the University of Tokyo to play the
role of the Japanese government. Thus was born the original idea of Globally
Collaborative Peace Gaming. This was to align with the Iron Rule #1 of
simulation, i.e., ÒMake simulation close to SIMULAND as much as possible.Ó
(7) In the spring of 1973, I conducted the world-first global "Peace
Gaming" with Professor Noel with the use of e-mail over computer networks.
I invited the University of Tokyo, and he invited the University of Brussels,
and the University of London in addition to several universities in the U.S.
It was a "normative" gaming based on exchanging diplomatic e-mail
messages without the use of quantitative computer simulation models. American
universities sent their messages through ARPANET and overseas universities
through GEISCO (a GEÕs time-sharing service firm).
Students acted as the heads of states and cabinet members of assigned
countries. All messages were accumulated and re-distributed by a node at the
University of California in Santa Barbara.
The scenario designed by Professor Noel assumed an international crisis with a
border incident between Iran and Iraq – which actually happened about
half dozen years later. The Japanese team sent their messages to the United
Nations team, asking to make the Straits of Malacca an international zone to
secure oil flow from the Middle East to Japan. They also asked the U.S. and
Soviet Union teams to withdraw their naval fleets from the Pacific and Indian
Oceans, respectively.
Professor Jonathan Wilkenfeld of the University of Maryland was a graduate
student under Professor Noel at that time. He then continued this normative
exercise into his International Communication of Negotiation with Simulation
(ICONS) at the University of Maryland <http://www.icons.umd.edu/>.
(8) De-regulation of Japanese
Telecommunications Policies for the Use of E-mail:
Unfortunately, this exciting global gaming had to be terminated upon
instructions from KDD (Kokusai Denshin Denwa, the Japanese overseas
telecommunications authority). I then found fine prints in the KDDÕs user
manual on the TelenetÕs extension line, prohibiting the use of e-mail. This was
due to the Japanese telecommunications regulations, which strictly prohibited
message exchange through a computer without changing its contents. However, a
node in Santa Barbara, California, performed the message exchange, which was
clearly outside of the Japanese jurisdiction. I thought this was absurd.
(9) Beforehand of this incidence, I asked Professor Jack Pugh of Massachusetts
Institute of Technology (M.I.T.) to install his DYNAMO simulation language for System
Dynamic simulation modeling into GEÕs GEISCO so that I could use it from Tokyo
through a time-sharing terminal.
After the KDDÕs instruction mentioned above, I received a message from
GEISCO/Tokyo office requesting information how to use the DYNAMO in GEISCO. The
message was sent from J¿rgen Randers (a member of DennisÕ group) in Oslo,
Norway. Recalling the KDDÕs instruction, I asked them why such message exchange
was possible. Their reply was because the message was sent from GEISCO/Oslo
office to GEISCO/Tokyo office, i.e., within the same company. I therefore
thought that this was patently unfair.
(10) This KDDÕs prohibition of email negated my previous effort of extending
Telenet to Japan, since e-mail would be the most convenient means of communication
among game players. So, I chose to work through the U.S. government on the
de-regulation of the Japanese telecommunications policy for the use of e-mail.
The late Commerce Secretary, Malcolm Baldridge, kindly took this issue as one
of three JapanÕs ÒNon-tariff BarriersÓ when he visited Tokyo in October 1981.
This was the beginning of fierce US/Japan trade (including automobile) battles
in the following years.
My efforts, however, encountered severe opposition from the Japanese Ministry
of Post and Telecommunications (MPT), and of course KDD, which was the
semi-governmental monopoly at that time. This was due to the difficulty of
Òmind-changeÓ from circuit-switching technology for analog telephony to
packet-switching technology for digital data communications. Another reason was
that almost 60% of KDD's revenue was from Telex, which worldwide networks were
just about completed with huge investments around that time. E-mail completely
forfeited their billion dollar investments!! Lo and behold, their financial
status dropped into "red" a decade after I succeeded with the
de-regulation effort! In a sense, I acted as the so-called ÒCreative
Destruction,Ó a famous word by Joseph Schumpeter. (Incidentally, ITT, RCA
Globcom, Western Union, etc., large US telex companies also disappeared after
proliferation of email, even though I was the one who suggested Telenet to
utilize their worldwide telex network in 1976.)
My effort also triggered the privatization of Japanese telecommunications
industries and de-monopolization of the Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT),
the worldÕs largest corporation, and KDD. Thanks to these privatization and
de-monopolization, Japan now has the world most advanced broadband Internet.
Incidentally, Japanese Ministry for Posts and Telecommunications (MPT) was the
most formidable bureaucratic bastion at that time.
(11) As you see above, I have been working on the upgrade of the world
simulation since BEFORE the time when the ÒLimits to the GrowthÓ book of the
Club of Rome was published, with substantial spin-off benefits, e.g., extension
of packet-switching telecom networks to various Asian overseas countries,
especially to Japan, the deregulation of Japanese telecom regulations,
particularly on the use of email, etc.
Those telecom deregulations were emulated in many other countries since then,
with more than one billion email users around the world nowadays. In a
cynical sense, the inquiry from J¿rgen Randers (a member of DennisÕ group) in
Oslo, Norway mentioned above kicked off my de-regulation effort, and changed
the world — I then admit that this is the ONLY and very significant
benefit brought by the Club of Rome and DennisÕ ÒLimits to the GrowthÓ book.
Best, Tak
ATTACHMENT I
From: Murray Turoff <murray.turoff@gmail.com>
Reply-To: <turoff@njit.edu>
Date: Mon, 19 Oct 2009 22:38:09
-0400
To: Tak Utsumi <utsumi@columbia.edu>
Subject: Re: [gu-new]
(20091019) Constructing Indian Early Warning System (IEWS) and then
Western Asian Early Warning System (WAEWS)
go back and read the
club of Rome model, it might not have been that far off in its
prediction. some one should update that model
On
Mon, Oct 19, 2009 at 10:30 PM, Tak Utsumi <utsumi@columbia.edu>
wrote:
Murray:
(1) Thanks for your comment.
(2) You might have been thinking about the tsunami.
Our early warning system is for the policy analysis to prevent the economic and
social collapse and subsequent fierce, severe conflicts due to the global
warming, resource scarcity and food security, etc.
Best, Tak
From:
Murray Turoff <murray.turoff@gmail.com <http://murray.turoff@gmail.com>
>
Reply-To: <turoff@njit.edu>
Date: Mon, 19 Oct 2009 20:42:46
-0400
To: Tak Utsumi <utsumi@columbia.edu>
Subject: Re: [gu-new]
(20091019) Constructing Indian Early Warning System (IEWS) and then
Western Asian Early Warning System (WAEWS)
Tak, all the technology including the sensors, computers, communications
already exists and is tried and proven. the design of placement and
such is part of the implementaiton and it is hte money for building the system
that is the only thing needed to get it going. that is for the seismic
and wave detection whihc is the most important for that area. it
does not have to be a satilite system except for communications which may need
some more communication satelites..
*******************************************************************************
* Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D., P.E., Chairman, GLOSAS/USA
*
* (GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in the U.S.A.)
*
* Laureate of Lord Perry Award for Excellence in Distance Education
*
* Founder and V.P. for Technology and Coordination of
*
* Global University System (GUS)
*
* 43-23 Colden Street, Flushing, NY 11355-5913, U.S.A.
*
* Tel: 718-939-0928; Fax: 718-795-1655; Skype: utsumi
*
* Email: utsumi@columbia.edu; http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/
*
* U.S. Federal Tax Exempt ID: 11-2999676 <http://tinyurl.com/534gxc>
*
* New York State Tax Exempt ID: 217837 <http://tinyurl.com/47wqbo>
*
*******************************************************************************