<<February 18, 2009>>
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Leslaw Michnowski
Committee for Futures Studies "Poland 2000 Plus"
Polish Academy of Sciences
Civil Society. Sustainable Development Information Society Forum -
Poland
High School for Management in Legnica (Poland)
Peoples Science-Culture Society
Al. 3 Maja 2 m. 164
00-391 Warszawa, Poland
tel/fax: +48 22 7681019
Cel: +48601264164
kte@psl.org.pl
www.psl.org.pl/kte
www.psl.org.pl/kte/artlm.htm
http://www.psl.org.pl/kte/postergd.pdf
References:
(a)
"Globally Collaborative
Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG)"
<http://tinyurl.com/k2c7a>
(b) Quantitative Policy Analysis of
Global Socio-Economic-Energy-Environment Development (GSEEED) Project
(i) Synopsis <http://tinyurl.com/6oaua3>
(ii) Concept Paper <http://tinyurl.com/3k2fk9>
(c) Walter G. Ollor, Peter O. Jack, Takeshi Utsumi,
Hans R. Herren,
ÒNigeria Energy Policy Analysis: Modelling NigeriaÕs Energy Policy Response Dynamics,Ó
(19 January 2009)
<http://tinyurl.com/bk3hwp>
(d) Kyle Crichton, ÒEconomic Lessons
From LeninÕs Seer,Ó The New York Times, Week in Review, February 14, 2009
<http://tinyurl.com/assexs>
(e) The Kondratieff Theory
<http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm>
(f) Joe Nocera, ÒRisk
Mismanagement,Ó The New York Times, Sunday Magazine, (January 2, 2009)
<http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/magazine/04risk-t.html?scp=1&sq=Risk%20Mismanagement&st=cse>
(g) David Leonhardt, ÒThe Big Fix -
Can Barack Obama Really Transform the U.S. Economy ...,Ó The New York Times,
Sunday Magazine, (February 1, 2009)
<http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/01/magazine/01Economy-t.html?scp=4&sq=Leonhardt&st=cse>
Dear Leslaw:
(1) Many thanks for your msg
(ATTACHMENT I).
(2) I wholeheartedly support your effort of the followings;
(a)
Presenting "World GRID Simulation" idea at the G20 mtg in London in April, 2009 and
(b) Creation of Global Early Warning System at the UN
(3) The globally collaborative simulation models of our GCEPG/GSEEED projects
(see above references) may well suite for your ÒWorld GRID Simulation System
(WGSS)Ó;
Here, simulation models of each country would be located in their designated
country, and be interconnected each other through broadband Internet to act as
if a single global scale super computer simulation.
(4) The current financial/economic crisis may be analyzed with such a worldwide
system by the collaboration of economists/environmentalists around the world.
Thanks to the advancement of broadband Internet, almost all of
financial institutions in developed countries have been interconnected for
swapping billions of dollars instantaneously, thus creating worldwide chaos at
once as soon as Lehman Brothers bankrupted.
BTW, thanks to Lehman BrothersÕ financial support,
the Japanese government won Japan-Russo war in early 1900s.
(5) Prof. Jay W. Forrester of M.I.T. initiated system dynamics methodology
which is based on the cybernetics theory of Norbert Wiener.,
which mathematical model is a combination of positive and negative feedback
loops.
Prof. Forrester once said
in his paper in late 1970s that only the system dynamics methodology can
predict down-turn of economy thanks to the combination of those positive and
negative feedbacks, which is the dear concern of most of politicians and
businessman.
I
was completely appalled when I learned that the financial experts in Wall
Street relied on the ÒValue at RiskÓ model which is
based on the probability theory (Reference (f) above). This means that
they are acting as gamblers in Las Vegas, instead of trustful and reliable
custodians of finance and wealth of capitalist society. Hence, LeslawÕs proposal to create Global Early Warning System
with the ÒWorld GRID Simulation System (WGSS)Ó at the UN would be quite
legitimate, indeed.
(6) Prof. Forrester also said that a big economic swing would come 75 years
after the last economic crisis in the early 1930s, as referring to Kondratieff Wave Theory (References (d)
and (e)), which is based on innovation and hence its subsequent social
reformation cycles — for example, the big economic swing of the 1930s was
thanks to the advents of steam engines, rail roads, automobile, airplane,
steamship, etc. (mainly of transportations), and the current one is of
computer, satellite, optical fiber, television, telecommunications, etc.
(mainly of Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs)).
(7) As riding on the current drastic social reformation, President Barack Obama
is said to be the first president who utilized Internet effectively for his
campaign, as saying ÒThere is no black, no white, no Hispanic, no Asian.
There is only the United States of America!!Ó
As the age of broadband Internet to come soon (e.g., Hulu
<http://www.hulu.com/> or YouTube <http://www.youtube.com/>, etc.), we would
need to upheave his rhetoric to say
ÒThere is no Japanese, no American, no Chinese, but only GLOBAL CITIZEN of
GLOBAL VILLAGE!!Ó BTW, this is what we are working on to ÒchangeÓ
(another motto of Obama campaign) the world with our GUS and GCEPG/GSEEED
projects to attain global peace — (Reference (g) above).
Best, Tak
ATTACHMENT I
From: Leslaw Michnowski
<kte@psl.org.pl>
Date: Tue, 3 Feb 2009 12:02:54 +0100
To: Tak Utsumi <utsumi@columbia.edu>, gu-new <gu-new@friends-partners.org>
Subject: Fw: WSIS-EUC Digest, Vol
53, Issue 1
Dear Tak,
I apologize not to answer so long on your last letter. I'll do it soon.
Nowadays most important is to include our "world
GRID simulation" ideas
into anticrisis G20 (April 2009, London) world
economy recovery activity. It
would be especially important to support G.
Brown global early warning
system- and A. Merkel UN Economic Council- creating proposals - see below.
With the best regards -
Leslaw
www.psl.org.pl/kte
Date: Tue, 3 Feb 2009 00:49:09 +0100
From: Les?aw Michnowski <kte@psl.org.pl>
Subject: [WSIS-EUC] Global crisis (2)
To: <wsis-euc@fsfeurope.org>
Message-ID: <6A2913A65C1A4AF58E7F57EE79180903@Izbica69>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-2"
Dear European Friends,
I'd like to inform you about my (below) letter to President Barack Obama:
Honorable Barack Obama
President - elect of the United States of America
Dear Mr. Obama,
Congratulations on your election as the new President of the USA.
Your main election campaign topic: CHANGE, creates a big hope for humankind
survival. To overcome global crisis and achieve sustainable development of the
world society we need STRONG AND ECOHUMANISTIC AMERICA.
Ecohumanism is a partnership-based co-operation for
the common good of all people (rich and poor, from countries highly developed
and behind in development), their descendants, and natural environment -
commonly supported by science and high technology.
Please take into consideration the conclusions of my system analyses about the
essence of global crises and the requirements for sustainable development (see
references below, with links).
With respect and warm regards -
Leslaw Michnowski,
Polish Academy of Sciences,
Committee for Futures Studies "Poland 2000 Plus,"
Warsaw, Poland
References:
1. Michnowski, Leslaw,
Eco-Humanism and Popular System Dynamics as Preconditions for Sustainable
Development, The Vol. 3, No. 11, November 2007 issue of the Solidarity,
Sustainability, and Non-Violence (SSNV) Research E-Journal, edited by Luis
Gutierrez -
http://pelicanweb.org/solisustv03n11michnowski.html .
2. Michnowski, Leslaw, Ecohumanism as a Developmental Crossing, [in:] Sri Sadguru Sainathaya Namah, Transformative Pathways Attainable Utopias, (red. Sangeeta Sharma), Jaipur, India,
2008 -
http://www.psl.org.pl/kte/Indie.pdf
This letter was published inter alia in: The E-Journal of Solidarity,
Sustainability, and Nonviolence, Luis T. Gutierrez, Editor -
http://pelicanweb.org/solisust.html .
The conclusions of my system analyses about the essence of global crises
contain inter alia the next:
1.. The information problem is a key issue in
overcoming the global crisis and in the creation of socio-technology possibilities
for ecohumanism and sustainable development of the
whole world society.
2.. (.) it would be convenient to create The United
Nations Information Center for the Strategy of Sustainable Development.
During WEF Davos 2009 Angela Merkel has proposed to
create UN Economic Council.
But this UN Economic Council ought to combine above The United Nations
Information Center for the Strategy of Sustainable Development. It would allow to predict approaching socio-economy dangers and eliminate
them in anticipatory way.
I ASK YOU FOR G20 STRONG SUPPORT OF THESE PROPOSALS.
With the best regards -
Leslaw.
www.psl.org.pl/kte/artlm.htm .
See also: 1. Global crisis (Leslaw Michnowski) Message: 1
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2009 23:24:51 +0100
From: "Leslaw Michnowski" <kte@psl.org.pl>
Subject: [WSIS-EUC] Global crisis
To: <wsis-euc@fsfeurope.org>
Message-ID: <005e01c98260$67c5b010$0a01a8c0@Izbica69>
Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed; charset="iso-8859-1";
reply-type=original
Dear European Friends,
The world is in the open phase of global crisis. We are standing in front of:
(A) the new world war,
(B) the "soft" continuation of social-Darwinistic social relations - in the quite new
(high science and technology supported, most probably global Orwellian
totalitarian) its pathological form;
(C) the sustainable development of the world society,
conditioned upon ecohumanistic transformation
(including creation of the new economy with possibility to account complex
costs and effects and stimulate creative - cognitive and innovative - activity
directed on common good).
Ecohumanism is a partnership-based co-operation for
the common good of all people (rich and poor, from countries highly developed
and behind in development), their descendants, and natural environment –
commonly supported by science and high technology (including information
culture).
It is impossible to durable overcome global crisis by the (A) or (B) ways.
We have to overthrow "zero growth"[1] defense strategy (A. Merkel,
WEF, Davos 2007). We have to substitute
entrepreneurial capitalism for speculative capitalism (N, Sarcozy,
EU Summit, 10.2008, B. Gates, WEF Davos 2008). We
need creative, ecosocial useful capitalism - i.e. ecosocial free market economy (GMPI). These proposals are
coherent generally with Barack Obama's, contained in his inaugural speech.
To achieve above we ought to support G. Brown's and Wen Jiabao's (WEF Davos 2009) proposal: to create GLOBAL EARLY WARNING
SYSTEM. But this information system building should be only the first step in
the creation of world information system for sustainable development policy and
economy.
To avoid global catastrophe we need especially - as soon as possible - to
elaborate, adopt and enforce UN program of sustainable development information
bases creation.
The two important world anticrisis events will be
hold in the 2009 year:
I - G20 (London, April 2nd);
II - UN General Assembly.
Therefore I propose to try to include into programs of both above events our
strategic proposal: TO START TO CREATE - with help of UN - THE WORLD
INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT POLICY AND ECONOMY.
Without that information system realization of above strategic proposals as
well as all of the main UN tasks:
- Millennium Development Goals,
- ("three pillars") sustainable development of the world society,
- changing properly patterns of production and consumption;
- fair globalization,
- sustained economic growth,
- decoupling economy growth and resources depletion,
- will not be possible to achieve.
To overcome global crisis we need to start as soon as possible building of
above mentioned information bases of sustainable development of the world
society.
With the best regards -
Leslaw.
www.psl.org.pl/kte/artlm.htm
[1] Some "zero growth" policy realization form see fig. 8 in:
Forrester Jay W., Counterintuitive behavior of social systems, -
http://sysdyn.clexchange.org/sdep/Roadmaps/RM1/D-4468-2.pdf
.
End of WSIS-EUC Digest, Vol 52, Issue 1
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* Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D., P.E., Chairman, GLOSAS/USA
*
* (GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association
in the U.S.A.) *
* Laureate of Lord Perry Award for Excellence in Distance Education
*
* Founder and V.P. for Technology and Coordination of
*
* Global University System (GUS)
*
* 43-23 Colden Street, Flushing, NY 11355-5913, U.S.A.
*
* Tel: 718-939-0928; Email: utsumi@columbia.edu
*
* http://www.itu.int/wsis/goldenbook/search/display.asp?Quest=8032562&lang=en
*
* http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/
*
* U.S. Federal Tax Exempt ID: 11-2999676 <http://tinyurl.com/534gxc>
*
* New York State Tax Exempt ID: 217837 <http://tinyurl.com/47wqbo>
*
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