<<August 17, 2005>>
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Akira Onishi
Professor Emeritus, Soka University
Director, Centre for Global Modeling
2-16-7-1915 Konan, Minato-ku
Tokyo 108-0075
Tel/Fax: +81-3-5783-0023
onishi@cgmfost.org
akiraonishi747@msn.com


Dear Prof. Onishi:

(1) Many thanks for your msg (ATTACHMENT I) with the table of the following;

Predictions of the Global Economy, 2005-2020
(Filename: Table 1.doc：Projections of the Global Economy, 2005ー2020.doc（F).pdf)

I am taking the liberty of attaching it to this list distribution -- I am sorry for my belated action.

Dear E-Colleagues:

(2) This was made by his FUtures of Global Interdependence (FUGI) global modeling system, the world largest economic simulation system, which has often been used by economists of the United Nations.

You may be interested in learning the economic outlook of your concerned countries, since this lists 200 countries around the world.

(3) For your reference, the followings are my list distributions about his previous efforts;

(a) World Economic Outlook, 2004-2010 (made on November 17, 2004)
ATTACHMENT II of;
(02/12/05) Discussion on Asian Tsunami and ELeGI conference and trip to Italy from 3/12th to 28th

(b) Global Economic Outlook, 2004-2010 (made on September 11, 2004)
(09/19/04) Global economic outlook, 2004-2010

You can find both of them at the URL listed at the top of this msg.

Best, Tak

---

ATTACHMENT I

> From: Onishi Akira <akiraonishi747@msn.com>
> Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 22:29:26 +0900
> To: <utsumi@columbia.edu>
> Cc: <onishi@cgmfost.org>
> Subject: Information
>
> 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 　July 21, 2005
> Dear Prof. Utsumi,
>
> Please you will find the attached file on the latest Projections of the
> global economy, 2005-2020 using the FUGI global modeling system. The
> baseline projections of the world economy will have a wide range of
> fluctuations in accordance with uncertainty incidents as well as global
> co-ordinations of policies. The FUGI global modeling system has been
> designed for providing up-to-date information to the human society under
> uncertainty and changing world.
>
> (1)　It is worth noting that the current world economy led by the United
> States will be fluctuated by business cycles of around ten years. The next
> peak seems likely to be around 2010 based on forecasted figures of the
> Federal Fund Rates. The oil prices also will follow the similar fluctuation
> pattern of the path of the global economic growth.
> (2) In order to maintain the sustainable development of the global economy,
> policy co-ordination among the major countries should be desirable. The
> developed countries should jointly increase R&D to open the new frontier
> science and technology. In order to cope with poverty and terrorism, ODA
> ratios to GDP will not be decreased.
> (3) Japan should take an initiative to create a small and efficient
> government, although the current government is planning to raise tax rates,
> in particular, consumption tax rates. On contrary, if the government would
> introduce a large scale income tax cut (5 trillion yen corporate tax and 5
> trillion yen personal income tax, respectively) starting from 2006 fiscal
> year, the Japanese economic growth rates will be increased to around 4%
> level and new bond issues will tend to be nil by the year 2020. The Japan
> syndrome suffered from worse policies is not a nightmare.
> (4) The Japanese economy has become much stronger against oil shocks, on
> account of structural changes in energy savings and alternative energy
> devices. Based on the Japanese experience, we can reasonably expect that
> higher oil prices will induce human efforts for creating energy savings and
> alternative energy devices against global warming gas emissions.
>
> I am pleased to inform you that my article of FUGI global modeling system
> (FGMS200): Integrated global model for sustainable development , Journal of
> Policy Modeling, Volume 24, Issue 6, October 2002, Pages 561-590 has been
> recommended on Science Direct.
>
> I should be most grateful if you could also refer my recent article on
> Futures of global interdependence (FUGI) global modeling system: Integrated
> global model for sustainable development, Journal of Policy Modeling,
> Volume 27, Issue 1, February 2005, Pages 101-135. on Science Direct.
>
> For further details of the FUGI global modeling system, see UNESCO EOLSS
> (Encyclopedia of Life Support System) Theme1.47: Integrated Global Models
> for Sustainable Development edited by Akira Onishi, Honorary Theme Editor
> published by EOLSS Publisher, Oxford, UK (http://www.eolss.net) in 2003.
>
> With best regard
> Sincerely yours,
>
> Akira Onishi
> Director, Centre for Global Modeling
> E-mail:onishi@cgmfost.org

---

**********************************************************************
* Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D., P.E., Chairman, GLOSAS/USA                  *
* (GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in the U.S.A.) *
* Laureate of Lord Perry Award for Excellence in Distance Education  *
* Founder and V.P. for Technology and Coordination of                *
*   Global University System (GUS)                                   *
* 43-23 Colden Street, Flushing, NY 11355-5913, U.S.A.               *
* Tel: 718-939-0928; Email: utsumi@columbia.edu                      *
* http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/                            *
* Tax Exempt ID: 11-2999676                                          *
**********************************************************************