Peace Games with Open Modeling Network
In the last few years the transformation of the communication network, which started with launching of the first communication satellite in the mid 1960s, culminated in establishment of globally interconnected packet switched Value Added Networks (VANs). Concurrently with this technological development we can observe growing and unsolved difficulties in dealing with the problems caused by the population explosion, depletion of natural resources and problems of global ecology management.
On the other hand, recent trend to automation, which is fueled by economic competition in particular between the U.S. and Japan, development of expert systems and the explosive growth of defense systems with shorter and shorter reaction time are rapidly changing the global economic and political situation in both developed and developing countries. The growing interdependence of national economies and the complexity of the global issues require higher level of cooperation and understanding between the highly diverse groups and nations which populate this planet.
In this article we will examine the application of the new development in the area of distributed systems and Computer Aided Communication (CAC) to the analysis of the global sociological and economical issues. Based on the review of the past attempts and experiences with model acceptance and validation, we argue that meaningful and credible simulation has to be implemented as a modeling network composed of a large number of locally developed and verified models. No single model, developed by local group of experts has a chance for universal acceptance when it is dealing with controversial and confrontation prone area such as global resource allocation and economical policies.
Yet, a comprehensive model of global resources, ecology and economy is needed for the rational management of ecology and for economic cooperation between nations and economic blocks. As a solution to the dilemma between the need for a unified model and a diversity of views and the special interests of diverse groups, we consider a public Open Modeling Network (OMN) which will consist of models developed by local experts interconnected by global VANs.
New problems of interfacing of models which utilize different methodologies and use different computers and computer languages will require adoption of new standards, allowing for translation of the content and meaning of the information generated and needed by the individual models and development of policies which would prevent manipulation of the data by special interest groups. In the long run, it can be expected that the benefits of participation in the public network will exceed the problems caused by sharing some data and costs. The benefits will result from access to vast databases of relevant and up-to-date economical information and improved communication on the global scale.
The problem of managing the variety of heterogeneous models, each operating locally, yet affected from time to time by the results of similar runs at other locations, is compared to Scheduling Algorithm problem, which is required by all asynchronous distributed systems consisting of the distributed communicating processors. In particular we consider the application of Time Warp algorithm.
The GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation (GLOSAS) Project proposes to utilize the semantic benefits of gaming simulation on a global scale to aid decision makers in appreciating the impact of their decisions on interwoven global problems, i.e., the construction of Globally Distributed Decision Support System (GDDSS) for plus sum, peace game. The CAC, with cooperative executions of autonomously managed simulation sub-models at distributed locations in gaming mode, can provide a "meta-language" allowing improved communications among users of the sub-models.
Progress in the study of distributed systems has yielded a new scheduling algorithm, the Virtual Time concept, which allows organization of the information exchange among dispersed, dissimilar computational resources with asynchronous and parallel executions. These new developments are applied here to the Distributed Computer Simulation Systems (DCSS) of the GLOSAS Project, which deals with coordination of the distributed sub-models and their experts via the global VANs for global crisis and ecology management.
1. INTRODUCTION: POWERFUL NEW TOOLS FOR COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Society needs much more sophisticated tools to deal with complex global problems, which so overwhelm the world's leaders that they are tempted to simplistic solutions. Nightingale (1985), writing about a playwright, spoke of Michael Frayn's concern for "the awesome complexity of the world, and our desperate attempts to reduce it to nice, neat shape." Gleick (1985) reported how the mathematician, Benoit Mandelbrot, has expanded the work of scholars who "missed a whole range of things" because they "simply didn't have the tools" they needed to deal with "complexity (which) has been developing slowly in many disciplines for nearly a generation." Mandelbrot's work, he said, is a part of the revolution in understanding chaos, the study of turbulence and disorder in a whole range of phenomena.
Now, however, powerful new computer-communication and simulation tools can make it possible, as never before in history, for any intelligent citizen to have a hand in developing new alternatives to war and other complex international problems. Even the political geniuses, and perhaps there are a few, have not been able to keep in mind all they need to know and understand to deal with the whole complexity of global inter-relation. But computers, combined with other electronic technology, can now make possible mind-tools for a powerful new "collective intelligence."
It is now possible to combine existing technologies to make sophisticated and more holistic explorations of various scenarios for solving global social problems. Many small computers in different countries can be interconnected, through globally distributed network processing and information processing, into modeling and simulation instruments as powerful as those used by the Pentagon for war gaming. People-enhancing and mind- empowering tools can thus be created by combining such technology as: Value Added Networks (VANs), satellites, packet radio, video disk and expert systems, global data banks, wireless portable terminals, and more.
Developing experiences from modeling and gaming can also be combined in global systems and data banks with a cascading effect, to empower explorations for new international institutions, remodeling existing ones, new strategies by official government agencies, universities, peace institutions, churches and lay person groups. Before they are put into effect, often at great cost and risk, new strategies can be explored through gaming simulations by collective effort of people with different views located at various parts of world, to see how they might prevent crises, deal with crises, and make various efforts more effective in preventing war and creating conditions for peace.
2. COMPUTERS PLUS WHAT?
Rossman (1985) describes various advanced tools that might be interconnected for powerful explorations through and for collective intelligence. They are:
(1) The meshing of phone and computer systems into a single mode, combined with expert systems and data banks via satellites creates a new tool with breathtaking possibilities. Computer expert systems, as intelligent assistants, can fuse the knowledge of many specialists into tools to deal with complex problems, as providing their users with diagnosis and hinted solutions, which often outsmart human experts who designed and built the systems.
(2) The work of one huge computer can be done by a distributed network of many interconnecting microcomputers, which make up a reasoning system, stocked with all necessary knowledge. Access to information stored on optical video disks, with high-powered laser diode, can be obtained within seconds, e.g., over one dozen volumes of encyclopedia can be packed into a single shiny 5 1/4 inch disk - even including color illustration diagrams and pictures, and very possibly with voice and music annotations in the future.
(3) A global computer network can be a major new tool for coordinating resources - including brainware of project participants. Computer modeling and simulations to explore risks and possibilities then become a powerful tool for calculating the consequences of experimental change, by the people of different views and disciplines in various countries who created those cooperative simulation models.
(4) Fifth generation computer tools, instead of solving problems step-by-step, can break complex projects up into thousands of units, each to work simultaneously by different computers all over the world, the so-called distributed, asynchronous parallel processing as resembling numerous neurons in our human brain. The fusing of expertise through networks of minds can result as thousands of interconnected computers help people work simultaneously on different aspects of the same problem or project, particularly on the utmost crisis of human kinds, i.e., to prevent nuclear war and holocaust. "No matter where a nuclear conflict would begin on our planet and no matter who would initiate the first strike, whether or not a retaliatory strike would follow, the entire human race would share a common fate: no one can hope to survive a nuclear catastrophe," as said by Moiseev (1984), Director of Research at Computer Center of U.S.S.R. Academy of Science.
3. MOTIVATION AND FIELD OF APPLICATION
The topic of this paper is a technological fix for intractable global problems, such as hunger, poverty or arms race, involving many diversified groups covering a wide social and political spectrum. These different groups have different motivations and views of the issues and use different techniques, terminologies and concepts. In such situations, communication problems often prevent a smooth progress to solution of the issues. New techniques of the distributed computer simulation can provide planning and management methods which can overcome wide communication gaps.
3.1 Minus vs. Plus Sum Games
Not all problems can be solved by improved communications alone. In some intractable problems, parties in the issues take a position, which they are able to maintain and defend within the existing socioeconomic power structures. Such problems resemble the situation of two armies, which dig in and wait for the outbreak of hostilities. Such situations can usually be represented mathematically as a game with negative sum, in which non-cooperative strategies are rewarded and tend to be chosen as an optimal strategy by at least some major players. Such situations are not amenable to our technological solution and will not be discussed here.
In this paper we address a class of the social situations which can be described by a plus sum game, a game in which the optimal strategies require cooperation and exchange of messages rather than exchange of artillery fire. These situations are often intractable because of the large number of players having different views of the problem, different special interest and conflicting approaches or belief systems.
The term "player" is used here in the abstract sense of the game theory and may include agencies, organizations, corporations or industries as well as individuals. The players are characterized by their needs, goals and means of manipulating their environment. The players may be geographically scattered, use different (natural as well as computer programming) languages and have a wide range of physical and technological tools.
3.2 Computer Simulation of Social and Managerial Problems
Determination of an optimal strategy for complex social problems would be difficult, even if the issue were well described and agreed upon by the parties of the game. Moreover, in social problems the concepts are usually fuzzy, ill defined and often changing their meaning during the game. We will discuss tools, which enable the players to reach consensus and interactively find, maintain and coordinate the optimal strategy.
The new technological developments, which we will describe below, do not address any of the social problems directly. The problems can only be solved by the consensus or battle of the players. The techniques address the cause of the intractability, namely the management problems related to the languages and communications.
"Management" is the activity enabling human groups to achieve their collective goals. Many techniques have been developed and refined ranging from art to scientific discipline (Boettinger, 1975). Management science, as it implies, is the scientific approach to the analysis of management of enterprises or systems and their behavior whether for individual, communal, national or for global.
In contrast to physical and nonliving systems, social and living systems are hardly ever amenable to testing and "management science" has an inherent contradiction between the nature of "management art" and its "scientific" approach. The remedy to this is to create models, which simulate the system behavior, much as it is done by an airplane model in a wind tunnel. Computer simulation, which utilizes software rather than a hardware model, is therefore the essential tool of management science.
3.3 Importance of Modeling
Schank (1984) of the Yale Artificial Intelligence Lab points out that from now on it will be essential to use computer modeling for making important decisions, models which incorporate more and more knowledge about people and institutions. Until recently, he says, it has not been possible to make large conceptual computer models of governments, of the work of politicians and other complex systems. Now, however, such models can be increasingly complex, integrated, and can be more and more useful and trustworthy for testing ideas, theories and possible actions. Computers will not make good decisions but can be used to help human beings make better ones.
Licklider (1983) says that computer modeling and simulations are already beginning to play an important role in government research and planning, as these expand and multiply beyond space and military projects to other national planning efforts. The Soviet Union, he reports, is planning to create a 3,000-computer nationwide network with databases for planning. (Russians were, after all, the first who attempted to apply linear programming optimization to their national economic planning, albeit premature at that time.) Moiseev (1984) proposed that "further advances in the instruments of global analysis ... should be widely applied in arriving at quantitative characteristics of global processes and in evaluating the capacity of alternative development strategies to influence the course of human civilization."
Gilpin (1983), in discussing war games, says that the economic and military changes which result from the use of computers and other advanced technologies are bringing human society into an age wherein more is to be gained through cooperation and an international division of labor than through strife and conflict. For in the electronic global village all people will either lose or win together. To survive in a global society, Shubik (1983) suggests, we must develop tools to control pollution, fight inflation, provide justice and welfare, and to warn of new dangers and threats, such as acid rain or greenhouse effect to name but a few. This requires the building of more and more sophisticated models of an emerging global system in which computers and communication networks are to the twenty-first century what roads were to the first century's Roman empire.
3.4 Solution of Social Problems
Moiseev (1984) says that "past efforts in modeling the socio-economic sphere were largely concerned with the evolution of economic factors. The studies of the Club of Rome offer an example. Yet a purely economic analysis can offer little help in what is in fact most important, namely, the search for ways to resolve the contradictions that are tearing human societies today. The problem of identifying contradictions together with procedures for resolving them through compromises defines the most important branch of research activities today. Methods for finding not merely acceptable compromises but also mutually advantageous compromises may one day exert a decisive influence on the further development of human societies. The theory of compromises is currently one of the rapidly developing branches of science. New approaches and methods have been identified in recent years that make it possible to find mutually advantageous variants of compromises in complex contradictory situations."
The complexity and interrelatedness of the global issues requires technical expertise combined with effective public forum, which is accessible and understandable to a wide spectrum of groups and organizations. The builders and users of models for global issues are geographically scattered, use different languages, reside in different time zones and have different levels of expertise and need for technical details.
Their work to resolve the conflicts based on the quantitative facts and figures of computer simulation requires an asynchronous communication mechanism and can be facilitated by interactive gaming simulation. Consequently, the asynchronous scheduling among dispersed, dissimilar models via global data communication networks becomes a vital tool. The CAC approach allows integrated management of all communication modes: man-to-man, man-machine and machine-to-machine.
The technique described in this paper is a result of the synergism of several recent developments, such as the trend to distributed computing, particularly in the area of databases and knowledge based systems, spread of telecomputing, the developments in computer modeling and simulation and some recent theoretical developments of the scheduling algorithms. We will describe qualitatively a new application of these developments, specially the asynchronous scheduling algorithms, an application of distributed computer simulation system (DCSS) to the field of communication. We call this new area of application of computer simulation technology "Computer Aided Communication" or CAC.
In reference to the International Standards Organization's (ISO)/Open System Interconnection (OSI) reference model, our discussion is confined to the Application Layer (Utsumi, 1982). To outline CAC, we will trace its sources in the recent development of the relevant disciplines.
4. HISTORICAL ROOTS OF CAC AND RELATED FIELDS
The art of model building is ancient and predates the advent of computers. Computer hardware, however, was the first totally "plastic medium" which permitted to model dynamically wide variety of the real processes.
4.1 Interactive Gaming Simulation
Computer models are increasingly used as an advanced design tool. The systems represented by data structures are "animated" and the (simulated) performances of the virtual system are "measured" and evaluated. It is often the "measurement" part of the computer experiment which yields major benefits of the exercise. The variables which are inaccessible or buried in noise tend to stand out clearly and augment the designer's and/or user's understanding of the relevant process performances.
The computer model, when compared to a hardware test bed or prototype, offers a unique advantage as it allows one to develop meaningful statistics of ill defined, stochastic or chaotic systems. The real systems which operate with uncertainty, for example, social systems, can be effectively characterized by this technique. Computer models also aid visualization of the mechanism of the processes which cannot be observed directly and are too complex for unaided imagination.
The interactive mode of computer simulation, which uses animated graphics to feed in the "real time" the effect of players choices, becomes further enhanced in the gaming mode, when several players interact simultaneously with the same simulation model and obtain an immediate feedback not only about simulated part of the system but also about the tactical choices of other players.
4.2 Distributed, Parallel Simulation
The need for more memory, larger processing speed and utilization of other computational, communication and display resources is increasingly more often solved by recourse to the distributed processing. This trend has a specific significance in the field of the real time computer simulation, which is used as a part of controllers which regulate the course of the actual real processes. This is the application in which the computer is indeed operating in analogy with human brain.
4.3 Distributed Modeling
We have explained above why the trend to the distributed processing is particularly urgent in the field of simulation. The motivation is the same as in other areas - the need for faster computing. There is another motivation for the distributed approach to models of social systems which is one of the key concepts behind the CAC technique. To notice the other motivation we must view the phenomenon of the distributed modeling along the whole hardware to software dimension and shift our attention from the computational machines to the methodology of developing models.
The RAND Strategy Assessment Center (Davis, 1983) can serve as an example of the centrally developed distributed model. The hardware is distributed for speed and power, but the software is developed from the unified point of view. The unified systematic approach to the aspect of the reality, which is to be captured by the model, is indeed essential part of the traditional approach to the modeling methodology. The major part of developing computer simulation models deals with the concepts, terminology and selection of the proper sets of equations or non-numerical algorithms. It is this initial phase of the model development, in which the originally diversified views of the contributors are unified into the coherent view of the problem, which is critical for eventual credibility and acceptance of the model.
In this early stage of modeling, "relevant" aspects are being included into the model and some other variables and processes are "neglected." Modeler absorbs the partial views of the assembled teams of experts and must often reconcile conflicting terminologies and conventions of different disciplines. The success of the later model is critically dependent on this early stage, as it determines the acceptance of the model results by the users.
The sensitivity of the model credibility and acceptance to the environment is increasing as we move from hard to soft sciences and is one of the major obstacles to the application of modeling methodology to the solution of social problems, particularly in the situations which include confrontations. The reasons for this barrier are well known, yet persistent.
The CAC aims to circumvent or even, in somewhat paradoxical manner, to exploit this feature of the model building. The CAC techniques can manage and organize communications not only among models but also modelers and users (policy makers), and also among users of different views. The communications include not only text, but also voice (analog or digital) store-and-forward (asynchronous) message exchange, graphics and various video formats, which are used to convey and interpret results of distributed simulation models.
4.4 Need for Interconnections of Dissimilar Models
The computer models are rarely neutral. In the situations where players are to gain or loose, the acceptance of a particular computer model tends to favor one party, usually the one who has developed the model. This is true even in the situation of plus sum game, in which both parties benefit from the adoption of the common strategy. Models utilize certain concepts, certain point of view and good models often contain a philosophy of possible solutions. The negotiation is half won, once one can make the opponent to "see the things our way." An acceptance of our computer model aids a way of achieving that. By the same token, the art of propaganda consists of implanting concepts, slogans and labels, i.e., imposing acceptance of a certain model of reality and of forces affecting it.
These examples illustrate a mechanism which in a less extreme form is present in the development of every computer model, and prevents a development of a large "master model" which could be used to solve social and economical problems. The uneasy feeling, caused by the overtones of an Orwellian society, controlled by an impersonal elite, operating and perhaps controlling a huge supercomputer containing vast databases concerning public and perhaps even private affairs, is another example of the same mechanism which operates in building, propagation and use of the models in the social arena. We all, being players in the public affair games, are concerned about the model which may be accepted or imposed on us and may be used to allocate the winnings and losses and in selection of the common policies and strategies.
This non-neutrality of the model and language, which operates generally in human affairs, can be seen as an analogy or perhaps a complement of Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle: by observing the system, we affect and change it. Here, merely by describing the system, we change our perception of that system.
While this mechanism operates on all levels, it becomes particularly apparent in the building of computer models based on soft rather than hard sciences, applied to social problems and involving resource allocation issues. It is in the marginal cases, where these effects may be weak and unsuspected, that neglect of this mechanism is likely to cause problems. These problems are often manifested merely by nonacceptance of the model, sometime dubbed as NIH (=Not Invented Here) syndrome and not always recognized as major obstacle to application of simulation to the social issues.
4.5 Interconnection of Distributed Databases
The same mechanism operates on the databases, again both computerized or not. The databases are more widespread than computer models and so the operation of this "Uncertainty Principle for application software" is better known; it is centered around the concept of the "access." As the technology is supplying the computational resources in ever increasing quantities, hardware aspect is becoming less important. The other motivation for the move to distributed database is not hardware driven but related to the application and use of the data. The users of the databases are scattered geographically and those who generate, collect or create the data may need to exercise a measure of control on their data (e.g., restrictions of trans-national data flow recently emerged in European countries (Utsumi, (1978), Norman, (1981)).
To accommodate this need for local control of the data and some transactions, database programs allow some users, "owners of the data," to issue specific permits. Resulting set of "permits," which gives different privileges to different users, reflects and modifies the power structure of the organization which is developing the database. As with computer models, when the mechanism of the extended Uncertainty Principle is ignored, the resulting database is abandoned as inflexible, impractical or irrelevant.
Distributed databases exhibit new complexity which is directly related to the fact that multiple users or players with different payoffs in the game are using the same set of data. This new complexity includes the traditional aspects, such as issues of integrity, concurrency, location and duplication of the data. However, the aspect of access, and control of data are becoming dominant issues.
Next generation of the databases combined with simulation models will expand considerably the ability of game players to assign dynamically wide variety of constraints and permits, which will allow information to flow freely through the network, be modified as needed, accounted for, edited as needed, delivered to proper audiences, protected, rewarded, etc.
The aspects of merging dissimilar databases and the social or political concerns, such as concerns about the inevitably creeping motion to interconnecting databases developed by governmental agencies, all those aspects closely parallel the concerns and problems which we have discussed in connection with computer models.
4.6 Integration of Simulation Model and Database
This similarity between the two fields of telecomputing is not surprising when viewed in the light of the latest developments in the techniques of the simulation. The area of simulation, databases and of artificial intelligence are converging. Large scale state-of-the-art simulation projects are heavily database based and often use commercial relational databases, such as ORACLE or INGRES. The database is used to store initial data and parameters as results of the simulation. Manifestation of the same trend are commercial simulation packages, such as TESS by Pritsker & Associates, which combine graphics and database with simulation.
As the speed of computation will increase, the relational databases will be used concurrently with the simulation. The database will be able to display any object or particular attributes of an object or entity and a model running in the background which will be able to animate the object, and so convey the data and change of the data/objects with a particular scenario or parameters of the simulation run.
4.7 Advanced Programming Languages
One of the outstanding fifth generation programming languages is MODEL developed by Prywes and others at University of Pennsylvania (Cheng, et al (1984), Prywes, et al (No Date and 1985) and Tseng, et al (No Date)). MODEL is a powerful, non-procedural computer language which generates programs automatically, using as input a description of the problem rather than a description of the solution. It allows sequential or parallel processing on dispersed, dissimilar mainframe computers (currently IBM and DEC/VAX). The detailed design of communications and synchronization is performed by the automatic programming system.
With MODEL, novices can solve problems that once could tax even the most skilled programmer. To communicate a problem to MODEL, it is only need to specify the problem mathematically, without regard to how it will be implemented. Because only a basic knowledge of mathematics is required, any nonprogrammer still feel comfortable using the system. Compared with COBOL, MODEL uses only one-fifth as many statements.
MODEL can support bottom-up approach to building a large scale system from existing subsystems, as well as the conventional top-down approach. The MODEL language specification is easy to modify. It is incremental, in the sense that variables or equations can be added at the end or in any place, since order of statements is arbitrary.
Multiple designs are examined automatically. The computer chooses the most efficient. Operations are sequenced automatically, and MODEL automatically checks for consistency and completeness. Job control language to set up and execute concurrent processing is also generated automatically. It generates command language programs that schedule the execution of modules, maximize parallelism, and set up the communications among modules which will be executed in parallel. A component graph is constructed which serves as a basis for scheduling. This graph consists of nodes representing parallel components and edges indicating sequential or arbitrary order of initiation of these components.
Entire independently developed systems may be easily connected. Thus, the creation of a new system that encompasses old system would not require design of a new system, only at most additions of modules to convert data. In the cooperative computation mode, individuals or groups develop systems independently, motivated by their own interests. They may later discover that by joining their systems they can have even greater capabilities than the total of the separate systems. All that is required then is to develop modules that convert the data to a common format and form a new interconÄnected system.
The MODEL language has been used to make possible the distributed processing of Project LINK which is an econometric forecasting simulation of world economy with individual country's economic model. Project LINK was originated and developed by Nobel Laureate Professor Lawrence Klein of University of Pennsylvania. Professor Prywes plans to locate the distributed processors in Japan and West Germany which will be interconnected by global VANs. We are assisting him to realize his plan with the use of the extended line of the U.S. CSNET to Japan.
Another relevant trend is the use of the object oriented programming languages (Cox, 1984), such as SMALLTALK or PROLOG, which work with sophisticated data structures. Objects can be data entities describing the real, physical objects, they may correspond to files or data sets, tables in the database or they may represent executable programs.
When we view this modern trend to object oriented programming in the above sketched environment of the distributed computer simulation systems (DCSS) communicating over the global data networks, we see the objects being sent from one location to another, executed and animated as a part of a simulation run, used as data envelopes and equipped with a set of attributes which define their access status, sensitivity of the data and so on.
The collection of the object traveling on loosely connected networks of the dissimilar computers forms a meta-language which is able to transcend the barrier to the application of the computer models to the social problems described above. The language, which is formed from independently defined object/concepts which the players can adopt or bypass, does not impose the specific world view of a language designer on the players. In this dynamic aspect which allows the different groups to adopt, drop and modify the objects used for mutual communication, the meta-language composed of the objects resembles the natural languages and shares some of their efficiencies. However, it differs from the natural languages as it consists of the objects which conform to certain rules of the formal syntax and can be directly executed or read by all component computer models in the system.
It is the hardware aspect of the "distributed" system which makes for the quantum leap in the use of the computer systems to the social issues - as it allows them to tailor the systems to the existing relationships and power structure of the society. As the society is not a monolith, controlled and manipulated form one center, a single large supercomputer operated by an elite team of experts does not satisfy criteria enumerated above, for an environment to be able to produce a successful computer model and simulation. Below, we will describe the methodology for building of the large scale models of the social systems which extend the benefits of the distributed simulation into the software aspect of the problem.
5. DEVELOPMENT OF ASYNCHRONOUS MODELING
On the boundaries of recent developments of various disciplines described in the preceding sections, one can discern a new application of the computer simulation technology, which will be the communication intensive discipline. Affected fields are education, large scale industrial and scientific projects and management of multinational corporations. However, the application which appears to have the most potential to benefit from this new technology is the global resource allocation, and environmental and ecological management.
These applications represent the "social order" which is a prerequisite to development of any new technology. Modeling of energy and other global resources was discussed under the key word of GLOSAS Project, which stands for GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation (Utsumi, 1972 to 1985), to which readers are referred for further details. A comprehensive and coherent model of the global resources is a prerequisite to consensus on proper resource allocation and ecologically sound policies.
Allocation of natural resources on merely a national scale is a complex problem, requiring skillful blending of the technical expertise, political consensus and complex administrative and financial systems. On the global scale, the communication problems so far prevented all but the most rudimentary manifestation of the emerging consensus - that something more than business as usual is to be done soon, to counteract and reverse destabilizing effects of the increasing population to the natural resources ratio and attendant increase in international tension.
We have summarized above the obstacles which prevent the successful development of the large scale, comprehensive computer models in those areas. We not only do not have consensus, but we do not even have a common picture of what the problem is. The simulation is the tool for the development of all that; first - of the common picture of the problem, then of the common terminology and gamut of possible strategies and finally the development of the consensus on global strategies. The interactive gaming simulation tests the mutual interaction of strategies of the players in the game and allows assessment of future consequences of the individual local strategies.
The first step in the evolution of the distributed gaming simulation, which may be the implementation test bed for Computer Aided Communication, is the development of the isolated, individual models of the reality. Many such models already exist, ranging from economical models, e.g., Meadows' "Limit to Growth" (Meadows, 1972 and 1974) and Onishi's FUGI model (1983 to 1984) to purely technical ones - models allowing engineers to design a car engine or allowing meteorologist to predict weather.
Incidentally, Onishi's FUGI model with economic and resource/energy forecasting submodels of over 125 individual countries was once used by economists of India, New Zealand, Australia and the United States with the HUB computer conferencing system of the Institute For The Future (IFTF) in Menlo Park, CA, over global VANs when East-West Center in Honolulu conducted an international economic affair gaming simulation, though the FUGI model was processed by a central mainframe computer at that time (Lipinski, 1982). The GLOSAS Project will attempt to distribute FUGI's national economic and resource models to as many countries as possible, starting between the U.S. and Japan with the use of the extended line of the U.S. CSNET to Japan.
Each such model represents an aspect of the multi-faceted reality, and moreover it tends to contain a bias of the model authors. The bias tends to be more important for the models dealing with the soft sciences and issues and may be decisive feature for models dealing with the natural resource allocation. Each such model is developed freely, without a need for a common world view, or even a same methodology, simulation language or similar hardware.
The conventional approach to the modeling is to obtain and consolidate common views and concepts. In contrast to that, GLOSAS Project and CAC admit and acknowledge persistence of conflicting opinions existing in the real world, and hence concentrate on the interconnection of dissimilar models.
The second step is to create the globally distributed computer simulation system (DCSS) by the interconnection of independently created and verified individual self-standing models. This second task is being addressed by the standards for the communication technology manifested by the current ISO/OSI standard and concurrent growth and spread of the computer networks. Additional standards, subdividing the 7th OSI layer for application programs, will cover the specifics of the Open Model Interconnection (OMI) and allow exchange of the model specific messages and objects.
The third step is the most interesting: What have we achieved if we interconnect dissimilar computer models, developed by experts of different disciplines located at different sites, using different methodologies, financed by different institutions, which themselves are tied to opposing power structures with conflicting interests? Imagine that we have done that: We have a public database of the existing computer models which are conditionally available for concurrent asynchronous execution. The database lists the assumptions of the models, their inputs and output variables, network addresses, mode of access, etc. Let us call the resulting Tower of Babel of inconsistent and contradictory models an Incoherent Modeling Network.
The interconnection of the heterogeneous models into one communication network creates a distributed virtual process, which can serve as semantic laboratory, a test bed for development of the computer tools for interpreting meaning of the I/O files of one model in terms of another model. In the process of such interpretation/translation, the meaningless incoherent messages, some of them at any rate, have a chance of becoming information.
The meaning of the message depends on two complementary structures: the physical structure of the message itself, the sequence of the symbols, of letters and words. The meaning also depends on the model of the world which the recipient of the message is running. If the recipient, be it man, organization or machine, is not running a model of the world which can interpret the message, then there is no meaning, hence no information transfer. (The former corresponds to our different natural languages and the latter to cultures.) The completion of the third step will not in itself create any new meaning, consensus or understanding on the "airwaves" - it will merely put the incoherent messages into a computer-readable form, so to speak.
The fourth step is devoted to the task of translation and correlation. There is a large selection of techniques available, which allow one to find and extract relevant information from the usually vast number of irrelevant messages which we call noise. These techniques range from the mundane regression analysis which calculates the positive or negative correlation between two variables, to the sophisticated techniques, such as the Cluster Analysis used in the Mathematical Taxonomy.
The task of the translation in our CAC is not accomplished by mechanical search for the statistical correlations between the parameters and outputs of the various models, even though, in some cases, the techniques of the artificial intelligence can be used to detect unsuspected relationships in classes of corresponding models. An example of such models may be classes of the economical models which simulate national economies, industries and various technical aspects, such as material or financial management, transportation, etc.
Prerequisite for interfacing the content of models is interpretation of elementary dimensions of the models. In our example of the economical models, the dimensions would include the virtual time in the simulated universe and the geography which defines the boundaries of the different economies, etc.; Dimensions facilitate the interpretation of the results of one model in terms of the inputs of the other models. These meta-models, or translating models, can be seen as new abstract concepts, which can only emerge in a meaningful fashion after the more concrete concepts are well anchored in the actual proxies.
The building of the interconnecting and interpreting models will be analogous to the creative capability which can suddenly see, in an intuitive flash, a connection of previously unrelated thought processes. This specialized, high-level translation process will be complemented by the process more akin to the usual, present day translation. In the process of executing the individual models, it will become possible to build dictionaries which can relate the concepts of some models to those of the other Ämodels.
In contrast to the usual dictionaries of common languages, these dictionaries can be quantitative, dynamic and will have full benefit arising from the semantic clarity which the concepts used as basis of a computer model tend to acquire. This clarity of concepts, which the users of good computer models tend to acquire, represents the semantic benefit of the simulation.
6. MECHANISM OF THE ASYNCHRONOUS, DISTRIBUTED SIMULATION
In the rest of this text we draw a loose, yet exact analogy between the simulation runs of the global modeling network and the transactions of a conventional Discrete Event (DE) simulation run. The most familiar form of the computer simulation is the Continuous System (CS) modeling. CS models essentially solve a system of the differential equations, which use time as the independent variable. Essential feature of the CS models is the time loop, which increment the time variable in the small steps and updates the state variables in the model. In the DE model, time is a dependent variable. The model is represented as a series of events which have specific causal and temporal relationship.
The essential feature of the DE simulation is the Scheduling Algorithm, which increments the time in finite chunks and schedules the events in proper sequence. The computational load of the DE simulation thus consists of the isolated sets of the operations, i.e., transactions which can in many cases be carried over in parallel.
6.1 Synchronous and Asynchronous Data Networks
There are two fundamentally different approaches to the design of the systems. The classical approach of the digital electronics utilizes the central clock: time is piped into all components of the system and assures that they operate in synchrony. In the area of the computer networks, this approach is utilized by the token rings, such as, for example, the famous Cambridge Ring, which interconnects dissimilar computers and terminals. Ring was originally developed at the campus of the Cambridge University in England, and due to IBM's adoption of the token ring, it will be used in many office systems.
In such a system, there is a continuous stream of bits, travelling around the ring from station to station like cars in a train. All stations read the bit stream and echo it to the next station on the ring. When the cars are empty, the station holding the token can deposit a pattern of the bits - its message, to the passing cars. Everything is orderly and somewhat boring - that is the synchronous approach to the data communication and processing - somewhat like a planned economy; it works - but it is fairly slow.
In the asynchronous system there is no central clock. Each component generates its own timing and for each communication event, the pair of components, a listener and a talker, must negotiate who talks when. An example of such asynchronous communication network is a well publicized Ethernet network, which runs a single coaxial cable through a sequence of offices and interconnects dissimilar computers, terminals, printers, file servers and what have you.
When station A wants to send a short message, called packet, to station B, it first listens if the cable, which all station share, is quiet. If there is no carrier, the station starts sending. After a while, the signal spreads over the whole network and then nobody can interrupt the A - it has "captured" the cable. For this reason, the packets must be fairly short and stations are subject to a "protocol," which prohibits them from accessing the channel just any time the cable is quiet. The purpose of the protocol is to guarantee to all stations a chance to capture the channel and transmit their packets.
This asynchronous technique of communication, called Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA), was first used on the ALOHA packet radio network to link terminals at the University of Hawaii campuses and was later developed into the ARPANET protocols and led to the new communication paradigm of the packet switched communication networks. Early VAN networks, such as GTE/TELENET, were instrumental in commercialization of this new technology. The key aspect of these networks is that many stations can share not only the same communication media, as with multiplexing, but even the same channel. This leads to the economy of these networks. Negative aspect of the technique is the fact that the packets, even when subject to the protocol, sometimes collide and become garbled.
6.2 Rollback Mechanism for Asynchronous Scheduling
The propagation delays and the methods of dealing with them, are the key issue of communication networks and other distributed systems, ranging from the multiprocessor arrays, such as Heterogeneous Element Processor (HEP) of Denelcor, Inc. in Denver, CO, to the global communication networks, such as GTE/TELENET. As the systems are getting larger, the implementation of the central clock is getting more difficult and expensive, and there is a trend to use asynchronous designs, particularly for large systems.
The key feature of the asynchronous systems is an element of risk. As in unplanned economy the CSMA networks can respond faster: any station can start transmitting when the network is idle; the station need not wait for a token or other permit before it starts transmitting.
When the assumption that channel was available fails, and the packets collides, the stations (packet-switching nodes) take a corrective action: they rollback the counter of packets sent and re-transmit the packet at the later time, when protocol affords them another chance, resembling a feedback mechanisms in the democratic society. The basic features of the asynchronous protocols for distributed computer simulation systems is that individual submodel components make assumptions about the rest of the system and go ahead acting on them, rather than always waiting for verification of their model.
This leads to some "failures," such as collision of the packets which require a restorative action. As all these failure events are taking place in the computer, the restorative action typically means that the calculation based on the false premises or packets garbled in the collision are erased and recalculated and resent. This restorative action is called "the rollback." In the case of the rollback the simulation clock, which meters the virtual time of the model, is moved back and all messages sent during the "rolled back" time interval are "unsent." It is a nontrivial exercise to demonstrate that on the average the virtual time will always be progressing (Jefferson, 1983 to 1984).
6.3 Asynchronous Scheduling Algorithms
As with the example of the Local Area Networks (LANs) given above, i.e., token ring and Ethernet, there are two basic approaches to execution of the distributed computer model. When the model is executed in a synchronous manner, all components must complete the prescribed task and report the results, before the next task can be initiated. With the asynchronous design philosophy, the system has no central managers and components compete for resources according to their own perception of the availability, and subject to the built-in protocol.
(a) Boundary Conditions as Exogenous Variables. In order to sketch the application of the asynchronous execution, let's imagine a whole system composed of a number of heterogeneous and initially incoherent models as a large processor array. In this analogy, each individual simulation run, which can actually employ resources of a large mainframe for many hours, is seen as a single transaction of the total network. Each simulation run is performed in isolation, defined by the assumed parameters of the model and by some initial and boundary conditions. Such simulation run, being independent of the other runs of the heterogeneous system, can be performed at any time and is subject to the interpretation of the results by the local experts or users, who developed the model for their limited purposes and from their limited perspectives.
Let's now view the multitude of such individual transactions, each describing one aspect of the same multi-faceted reality. For simplicity, we may imagine this common larger reality as the flow of materials described by the usual partial differential equations. The simulation runs of any given component model can be seen as a sequence of the transactions, a process simulating any particular cell of our hypothetical material. Each transaction starts with certain initial conditions and then needs the boundary conditions, which define the effect of the neighboring cells. The boundary conditions of the partial differential equation describe the interaction between the cells and interrelatedness between the different processes.
On a slightly more general level, we can consider boundaries between the disciplines and methodologies as defining boundaries of the different component models/cells of the heterogeneous system. In the GLOSAS Project, these component models are complementary submodels residing in dispersed dissimilar personal, mini- or mainframe computers which are interconnected via ordinary voice grade telephone lines or VANs.
In the synchronous scheme of the simulation, the interfaces between the interacting cells have to be defined in advance as calculation of one cell cannot proceed before the computation of the state of the neighboring cells was completed.
In the asynchronous approach, the calculation of boundary conditions can be a guess of what message an interacting process can bring. This is similar to the risk taking of a station in the CSMA scheme, i.e., "guessing" that the channel is available and going ahead with the transmission. On the human scale of the individual component submodels operated by their team of the resident experts at different locations for their particular sectors or fields, this corresponds to the guessing the best values of the parameters which interact with and influence the outcome of the simulations of their cooperative submodels, but which are not in the center of the model. Such parameters and data correspond to the "boundary conditions" of the cell of the total process, the cell on which they focus their attention.
As an example of such a peripheral parameter in the model of the economy (the so-called exogenous variable of an econometric model), we can consider the effects of weather. The physical processes of the weather are at the center of a different model, which corresponds to the other cell, cell interacting with economic model cell. On perhaps more significant level, we may recall a typical model serving the needs of industrial management, which tend to treat the variable on "labor unrest" as a peripheral parameter, akin to the weather and other "acts of God." In the paradigm of the heterogeneous simulation as envisioned by the GLOSAS Project, the labor itself through their own unions would have a model of the economical situation, a model which would be written from their point of view and which will interact with the management models.
By interconnecting many such models which serve different special interest groups, not only the prediction capability of each component is improved, but also the interaction of the groups is harmonized through the exchange of the information encoded into the powerful concepts/objects which are interchanged between the communicating component submodels - that is the essence of the CAC concept. It is apparent, on extrapolating this principle of allowing "peripheral data" of one group to be supplied by the other group, for which those data are vital, that the network of the communicating component submodels must eventually engulf the whole globe. This is a consequence of well publicized statement of interdependency of today's economical reality. The GLOSAS Project, being a top down approach to the building of the heterogeneous modeling networks, anticipates this gradual growth of the network which can be only closed on the global level.
(b) Rollback of Asynchronous Distributed Simulation Models. The new element, which CAC is bringing into the traditional way of building models, is the formalized sequence of the iterations which causes the whole network of the submodels to converge into a consistent global model. The submodels, which run on the individual processors of the network, may be either CS or DE models. Each simulation run is viewed as a single transaction (a meta-transaction) of the global network. As in the case of the original Time Warp scheduling (Jefferson, 1983 to 1984), the transactions are carried out independently, and when completed, they signal the results of the transaction to other computational processors which are performing related calculations. In some cases, this signaling of the new results of one run will invalidate the result of the other run/transaction performed at the other locations. This represents the case of the rollback in the global network.
The results of the simulation run are typically stored in the machine which produced them. In the system of the interconnected processors, these results are available to the other models, notably to the models which simulate interrelated phenomena. The fact that the subject matter of the models is interrelated naturally has to be established empirically and may require extensive translation and manipulation of the data. In the final analysis, the interaction is revealed by the fact that results of the repeated simulation runs will be improved, as new useful information about the aspect of the reality, on which this model is focused, is provided by the other cell - a complementary submodel.
The mechanism of the rollback, in the Jefferson's sense, is implemented via this shared database of the simulation results: Each time a (good) simulation run is made and new "result" is entered into the public database of GLOSAS, a "message" is sent to all those other cells (i.e., other component submodels) which utilized those result in the past. All those models, (subject to their owners' acceptance), will then rerun their own simulation, using the updated "boundary conditions" or "exogenous variables," which are the translated effects of the "results" of the original run.
Usefulness of information which leads to improved predictions on a particular component model, is verified and utilized by the local team. It is in this process of "making sense of other model outputs" that the new meaning is discovered. This new, useful information, derived from the public Open Modeling Network (OMN) provides positive reinforcement for further participation network. It is the balance of such benefit and of cost which will determine the rate of the growth of the modeling network.
6.4 Domain of Coherence
This represents the "rollback" of cooperative complementary submodels of the globally distributed gaming simulation of our GLOSAS Project, which is an analogy of the Time-Warp rollback and having the same cascading effects and reverberations. The degree to which the individual components respond to a major rollback is a measure of the coherence of the network; In the process of the evolutions of the network, we can expect the "domains of coherence" to develop (as similar to the coalition or alliance of nations), which will find it useful to exercise their models in orderly sequences. There will also be the "other drummers," sending their beacons through the network in search of correlations with kindred processes. Since there is no central authority in the network, and since the degree of activity and participation is controlled locally and autonomously by each component model facility, no single unit or central agency can force their "view" of the reality on other participants in the process.
There may be actual physical messages sent to all other "corresponding nodes," i.e., nodes which simulate potentially interacting processes, or the mechanism of the rollback can be accomplished by checking the appropriate items in the shared database of the system before a new simulation run is made. The essential feature is the self-correcting effect of the rollback, which will make the system to converge to a solution and to more or less coherent simulation of the wider and wider aspects of the reality.
7. PEACE GAMES
7.1 Waging Peace with Globally Interconnected Computers
The Computer Aided Communication (CAC) is a result of synergism of the new paradigm of communicating computers and of distributed simulation. Semantic benefits of simulations with a single computer or interconnected microprocessors located at a single site have been well demonstrated for both exact as well as social sciences. However, current systems of models leave much to be desired; there is a need for substantial improvements in the way in which they are constructed and analyzed (Moiseev, 1984).
The technology now exists, for example, to interconnect hundreds or thousands of personal computers, in different countries, through distributed network and information processing, into modeling and simulation instruments for playing "peace games" on the scale of Pentagon war games.
When legislation was proposed for a U.S. Peace Academy, like West Point and Annapolis, many asked what peacemaking skills it would teach? The GLOSAS Project suggests an exciting answer beyond the training of conventional state department personnel, or even negotiators with skills like those of Terry Waite who sought to obtain the release of hostages in the Middle East, working for the Archbishop of Canterbury.
All kinds of possibilities for waging peace could be explored through computer simulations to see what might work, to discover results before risks are actually taken. Developing expertise in modeling and gaming can be combined in global systems, with a cascading effect, to empower explorations of new international institutions, to remodel existing ones. New precision can come into the diagnosis of problems and the definition of issues and alternatives. It is now possible to combine existing technologies to make possible sophisticated and more holistic explorations of various scenarios in solving global social problems, by the people and for the people of the entire world. Moiseev (1984) says that "reason will become a decisive factor in nature's and society's evolution. Science is able to prompt certain variants of actions and evaluate them with due account of the real contradictions and actual situations that exist in our world."
In contrast to massively-funded global projects, (which can be encouraged by foundations and governments), the process of computer simulations of new alternatives for waging peace can begin locally in many small ways, then information and experience can be shared as networks and data banks are gradually developed and enlarged. In time there can be global data banks and global game plans which groups large and small, global and local, can plug into and use. War games must be kept secret, but peace waging can invite the participation of any qualified persons, and can be used to educate, train, and democratically involve large numbers of people in many countries.
Threat of war is a primitive method of global resource allocation. It is the only working method currently in existence. To move beyond war, we must provide alternative techniques for accomplishing the same task, techniques which emerge from the consensus, rather than from the barrel of the gun. So far the problems of reaching consensus on the global level have appeared to be intractable. We are not much closer to an agreement on basic issues than we were twenty years ago. The difference is in growing realization that the past techniques are obsolete and have to be replaced by the so-called win-win (plus sum) strategy.
"Games" and "simulations" could be undertaken to explore new alternatives for the United Nations, for regional associations of nations, for world law and courts, for development, for trust-building, negotiation, conflict-resolution, police-peace forces, citizen action and preparation, for dealing with terrorism, unilateral actions, etc.
7.2 Globally Integrated Use of Meta-Language
Is it appropriate to use such words as "tool" or "instrument" for combinations of so many different kinds of technology into a more powerful "system"? As the bulldozer becomes one component in a system for empowering human hands to do physical work - to move mountains - so now what can be combined to empower human minds to deal with overwhelmingly complex "mental mountains"?
When we speak of "peace games" (the word coined by Utsumi, 1977), some people persist in visualizing some little computer games to play on a screen, where we are talking about research and planning on a global scale. As millions of people must mobilize to wage war, we are talking about the possibility of mobilizing the brains of millions of people to wage peace. The GLOSAS Project proposes gaming simulations on a very large scale to help decision makers deal with interwoven problems. It seeks to construct a Globally Distributed Decision Support System: for a plus sum, peace game. This system, with cooperative execution of autonomously managed simulation submodels at distributed locations, can provide a "meta-language" for improved communication among users of submodels.
Progress in the study of distributed systems has produced a new scheduling algorithm - the Virtual Time concept - which allows for the organization and exchange of information among dispersed, dissimilar computers with automatic programming capability, asynchronous and parallel executions and self-correction/adjustment of discrepancies of simulation results produced by various submodels at dispersed locations. These new developments are applied here to the Distributed Computer Simulation Systems (DCSS) of the GLOSAS Project, which deals with coordination of the distributed submodels and their experts via the global VAN for global crisis and ecology management.
In less technical terms, we are talking about combining the power of global multimedia communication networks for integrated transmission of data, text, voice, image and video synchronously and/or asynchronously, global teleconferencing and computer conferencing, simulation and gaming methodologies as in war games and economic modeling, electronic data banks and indexing, expert systems, computer bulletin boards and "situation rooms."
For example, a new generation of machines that route messages along telephone lines, as well as AT&T's lower prices for leased lines, have encouraged hundreds of companies to install private telecommunications networks. The new networks transmit data and video as well as telephone calls, and they save money. Corporations create networks by using multiplexers to bypass local telephone companies and tie in directly to AT&T. The networks are called T-1 systems because they use T-1 (Transmission-1), the fastest telecommunications lines which transmit digitized voice, video, and data at 1.544 megabit per second (Baig, 1985).
We are not talking about computers that would do our thinking for us, taking over to guide a missile, or perhaps even deciding when to shoot it. We are talking about mind-empowerment tools to help people to better thinking. Society has vast amounts of data that are not adequately brought to bear in solving many kinds of problems because the information is scattered, uncoordinated, and not available when needed. We need tools to put this data together in what Shubik (1983) calls pictures and wholes. He describes four kinds of models: verbal, mathematical, pictorial, and digital. All of these might be used by people are seeking to build up more comprehensive models of alternatives to war.
7.3 Collective Intelligence
The problem is not technology, but what mind-tools we need and how to develop and use them. Their value, to paraphrase Papert (1980), will be determined by their success in helping us ask the most fundamental questions and solve the most desperate of human global problems, since they are ubiquitous to human destiny affecting our beloved future generations. Some of the preliminary thought about waging peace through simulations was begun by Carroll (1983) as he explored the idea of a Catholic Peace Center. We must use these powerful new tools, he said, to understand how the human mind functions in matters of peace and war. Peace is not being achieved through weapons technology alone, so he proposed a system of "war control" wherein strong and weak nations could cooperate much like the system of ground control which regulates air traffic. As yet, he said, people do not even know how to define peace except as the absence of war, so that sophisticate systems analysis is needed to experiment with peace systems.
Collective intelligence is needed for theory and practice. Hinds (1983) of the Peace Research Network says that computers and computer communications can make highly significant contributions to two fundamental tasks are at the heart of peace and world order: trust and community building, and conflict resolution. New tools can now make it possible for more and more people - even millions and tens of millions - to get more involved in these explorations, and thus also in fundamental, the so-called grass-root, decision-making.
7.4 To do What?
A great deal of modeling experience is available in political science and economic models, and in strategic decision modeling as in the work of the Club of Rome. Kaplan (1979) says that although great individual minds may have been responsible for spectacular human advances at times, from now on human progress will require a community of minds in which theories are collectively developed, criticized, applied, and tested. Until that happens, he says, human thought in the areas of war, peace, and international relationships will continue to be too simplistic and inadequate.
As quoting from Stech and Ratliffe (1976), Johnson-Lenz (1980) defined "group work" as;
Individuals bound together through communication to get something done taking into account how people function together in a social system and taking into account how people relate to one another as individuals using procedures to organize and systematize the work with leaders who help train group members and select procedures in group meetings. Completing a task effectively involves INTENTIONALLY designing the group's work so that the end product will help them achieve their purpose and INTENTIONALLY working together in ways that insure effective interpersonal relationships. Seldom, if ever, do task or interpersonal aspects of group work just "happen" if maximum group effectiveness is desired. Members must intentionally function in ways that cause them to happen effectively.
Johnson-Lenz then says that effective group work in the electronic medium thus requires BOTH explicit and intentional group processes/procedures AND the computer software to support them. Johnson-Lenz calls this union of GROUP process and computer softWARE support as GROUPWARE to distinguish it from either process or software alone. The most effective results are achieved when the groupware is carefully matched to the group's needs and preferences. The development and adoption of groupware can change the social system and functioning within the group and improve its task products and interpersonal relationships.
Individuals can continue to make significant and often exciting contributions, especially as their research and thought is empowered with fifth generation computer tools. They can as individuals and in small groups explore strategies such as those necessary to solve the "prisoner's dilemma" game, as Alexrod (1984) described. Already, across international lines, people begin to confer through computer conferencing.
What are some of the games, or simulations, that might be undertaken? The list is endless, and many groups in different situations may explore different possibilities, separately or through computer connections. Some might begin with the United Nations, exploring alternatives for revising its structure or procedures. It will be possible to try out ideas, through simulations, that nations are unwilling to consider officially. For example:
o What might be done by a global congress - sometimes teleconference and sometimes computer conference in which people did not need money to leave home - that represented neighborhoods instead of nations, with expanded town-to-town horizontal relationships - like sister cities of various countries? Suppose these were regional assemblies?
o What might be accomplished by "conflict anticipation groups" that went in to monitor any potential area of conflict?
o What kind of international police forces might be developed, perhaps to use nonviolent methods?
o Many kinds of important cases that are not allowed to come to the World Court might be simulated to see what the outcome would be (e.g., simulation effort on Law of Sea, Sebenius (1984))? Suppose, for example, any world leader who uses armed force in any situation were required to justify his actions as logically presenting quantitative results of gaming simulation before a global tribunal, such as United Nations' Security Council, but conferred by millions of people via global teleconferencing. Hearing might especially be held to examine cases of torture and human rights.
Licklider (1983) says that it is technically possible now to give international politics much greater depth, wider scope, with much more citizen involvement. Millions of people, in fact, can be active participants, which make it increasingly difficult for dictators to control or subvert the process. It will be a long time, he feels, before computer networks and conferencing can be used for the official work of legislatures, but simulations - large-scale unofficial experiments can begin at any time.
7.5 Who will do it?
Official governmental and university projects will require special funding, but it is unlikely that "peace games" will be monopolized by government and official groups. War games, the nations feel, must be secret and official, where their quest for peace is nearly always an open process, involving anyone who may be interested. Student groups, church groups, peace groups, and informal groupings of interested people can begin to work on peace simulations right now - indeed, some have already started. Ordinary people, with computer facilities, are dreaming and experimenting (Aaron, 1986). Some of them are in the third world, where computer networking can help them reach out to work with those who may be more technically advanced.
Such groups can begin to examine the models they have in their minds, the usually unexamined political models which have led too often to war. As any given experiment enlarges to the point of complexity, dimensions of it can be divided up with groups in different places keeping in touch with each other via computer bulletin boards or conferencing. As data banks and systems are developed more and more groups can involve themselves in a continuing computer conference. This is not so much a new process as it is a way for more and more people to put their heads together. (The advantage here is that those people can work at their preferred locations and time.) Schank (1984) tells how nearly every experiment fails in his computer lab, because the participants set impossibly difficult goals for themselves. Yet each failure, when examined, reveals the next step for experimentation is a continuing process of learning and development. In a similar way, instead of pessimism and discouragement about continuing failures in disarmament and peace processes, many more people need to use emerging mind tools to learn from political failures. This is because the safeguard of gaming simulation is NOT to destroy anything whatsoever in our real world.
Crawford in Aaron's article (1985) says that "some people wonder if games have educational value ... Games are nature's way of educating ... The neat thing about a game is that nobody gets hurt." Crawford believes computers offer "a new way of thinking about the truth ... the best way to learn process is to dive in and mess around. The computer can help us do that." "The game will bring about a more mature set of attitudes about the world for those who play it."
Moiseev (1984) says that, "in spite of the very great complexity of the ecological situation, of the depletion of the planet's resources, and of all the contradictions in the objectives and strivings of individuals, countries, and regional groupings, there do exist rational alternatives for a joint development of man and nature - of which he is himself a part. And modern science does possess the faculty of finding the ways that lead to that harmony without which the human race cannot have a future. As scientists join their efforts in studying the problem of co-evolution they will find the ways that lead to the achievement of those ideals of harmonious relations between man and nature that are common to all world religions and to the world's philosophical teachings."
8. ACHIEVEMENTS AND CURRENT STATUS OF GLOSAS PROJECT
During the past dozen years, thanks to great help and assistance from the U.S. Governmental agencies and to the support letters provided from various people in the U.S., we have accomplished and/or contributed to the following with our considerable time, effort and even private funds, as benefiting various U.S. and Japanese organizations in computer, telecommunications and information industries;
(a) Extensions of the U.S. VANs to various overseas countries, particuIlarly to Japan, as enabling the market expansion of American and Japanese information industries to overseas countries (Utsumi, 1979, 1980),
(b) Japanese deregulation for the interconnection of multiple host computers in the U.S. to a U.S./Japan private leased data communication line (Utsumi, July and August, 1981),
(c) Japanese deregulation for the use of electronic mail and computer conferencing services via the U.S./Japan public packet-switching line, as enabling the proliferation of the former of many service companies and providing opportunity of extending American education to overseas countries with the use of the latter (Utsumi, July and August, 1981, April, 1982, 1984),
(d) Liberalization of the procurement policy of Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT) Corporation, as enabling American and European communication hardware and software products to be marketed to NTT (Utsumi, August, 1981 and 1984),
(e) De-monopolizations of telecommunication industries in Japan, as enabling various private terrestrial and satellite communication service companies to emerge (Utsumi, August, 1981 and 1984),
(f) Proliferation of private and public VANs in Japan, as over 100 VAN service companies to emerge (Utsumi, August, 1976 to December, 1977),
(g) Extension of the U.S. CSNET to Japan, as enabling computer scientists and engineers of both countries to work together (Utsumi, April, 1981).
After having established necessary infrastructure as the first stage of our GLOSAS project, our current and future effort will be focused on the substance and content of global telecommunication networks, starting with the extensions of American education to Japan and other countries with the use of electronic mail and computer conferencing (the prelude to the second and grand developing stage of our GLOSAS Project), and then PEACE GAMING by the users of global communication media, and hence the realization of the globally collective intelligence. Examples are to assist;
(1) Extension of TELEclass (Telecommunication Enriches Language Experiences) Project of the State of Hawaii and University of Hawaii to over dozen high schools in Japan, Korea and other Asian countries, with the combined uses of speakerphones and slow scan TV monitor via ordinary overseas telephone lines and also computer conferencing of Electronic Information Exchange Systems (EIES) of New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT), i.e., simultaneous multimedia communication of voice, image and text.
Incidentally, EIES also has internetwork capability to ARPANET, MILNET, MINET, CSNET, BITNET, USENET, GTE/TELENET, UNINET, MAILNET, E-NET (DEC), XEROX, etc. Any EIES users can exchange electronic mail messages with the persons who can access those networks. They are at several thousands organizations (government, military, industries, education and research institutions) in almost any countries in the Western world.
(2) Extension of Connected Education with undergraduate and graduate level university courses for academic credit provided by the New School for Social Research (both in New York City) with students and faculty members from Japan, Singapore, Scandinavia, United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, etc., with the use of EIES, i.e., a forerunner of Global University. We are certain that, as demonstrated in the past decade, our GLOSAS Project and its future consequences will contribute to the betterment of U.S./Japan relations, not only from the viewpoints of computer, telecommunications and information technologies, but also from the viewpoints of trade, economic, culture, and Pacific security. Japan is a good candidate as the first step for this cooperative effort because of its high tech status in electronics and computers.
Though it may be some more years ahead, after establishing the firm track records between the U.S. and Japan, we intend to extend similar schemes to other countries. After all, anyone can now be reached from/to almost any countries in the free world via the global VANs. Then, why not make an effort to reach out to people in various countries more vigorously for the promotion of our mutual understanding and peace keeping among nations?
A long-range, gradually developing process is being initiated. People in Europe, America and Japan have become increasingly frustrated at the failure of their leaders to look far ahead, to plan alternatives to solve crucial problems before it is too late, especially when national projects are becoming large scale and long range to consume huge sum of effort and expenditures. It is difficult to get political leaders to look beyond the end of their terms of office to do more than improvise patchwork solutions for each crisis that arises. More powerful collective intelligence tools can now enable gaming simulations and research to look further ahead into the future, and deeper into the morass. Fernbach (1983) calls symbolic processing the "sleeping giant" of the future which can make it possible for a problem to be examined and solved on a larger and larger scale. Moiseev (1984) says that "science (has now) established the possibility of evaluating alternative courses of development of civilization itself, and thus of providing to those who wield power in this world a fundamental perspective on the development of global processes that could not have been gained with traditional methods."
In these gradually more and more coherent global simulation runs, the various aspects of the reality will add up to a representation of the complex situation on a scale unprecedented in the history. It is safe to assume that such a holistic perception of the global situation and its problems will facilitate steps leading to the improvement of the present state of the global affairs. It is well recognized that manmade disasters are becoming more serious and critical, with the danger of the nuclear war leading the list.
In this paper we have sketched some technical developments in the area of computer technology, in particular of the computer modeling and simulation which have potential for facilitating the evolution of global consensus. The process of using these techniques, as envisioned by the GLOSAS Project, would build the global public database and library of models, which would represent the relevant issues in the different ways. The models would allow the gaming simulation which would illustrate and demonstrate the consequences of the decisions, policies and local strategies.
The resulting public system would allow integration of the experts and technical approaches and models among themselves. More importantly, the system allows for open public review of the technical proposals and for an open forum on the policy decisions and issues. The system, by using the CAC techniques, allows for incorporation of the conflicting views and opinions into the system, thus preventing manipulation of the data by a central agency. The resulting system of the distributed simulation tends to support and enhance a democratic decision making based on the public discussion and consensus. It is this later aspect, which makes this method different from the past attempts to application of the large scale computer simulation to social problems.
Based on our experience with model acceptance, validation, verification and result dissemination, we consider this new approach to be indispensable for successful application of the powerful techniques of the computer simulation to urgent global problems. We hope that the proposed global peace gaming system, when fully developed, will become in effect equivalent to an "anti-bomb" with enormous power, as Moiseev (1984) envisioned. If properly utilized it should be able to paralyze the numerous forces that are prepared to use nuclear weapons in resolving contradictions and disputes.
The proposed global peace gaming system will also become an educational tool for the students of international affairs and political science. Moreover, such system can become the fundamental foundation for a GLOBAL UNIVERSITY with students and faculty members of various countries, which will promote mutual understanding among people of the world - hence world peace keeping. Education of youngsters/adults on a global scale is the BEST future investment for world peace and progress.
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11. Biographical Information of Authors
Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D., P.E., is President of Global Information Services, a firm which assists business-customers in various countries, especially Japan, to access computer information via global Value Added communication Networks (VANs). He is Technical Director of the Japan GLOSAS (GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation) Association, responsible for using advanced computers, telecommunications, systems analysis, and simulation technology to seek solutions to worldwide problems. Among his over a hundred related scientific papers are many presentations, for example, to the Summer Computer Simulation Conferences which he created and named. He is a member of Japanese and American societies for computer simulation, as well as many other scientific groups, and is now completing a technical book on what is proposed for this paper.
Peter O. Mikes, C. Sc., graduated from the School of Technical and Nuclear Physics in Prague, Czechoslovakia and received degree of Candidate of Mathematical and Physical Sciences from the Caroline University in Prague. He published papers in the field of statistical mechanics of polymers and developed series of the simulation models for Xerox Corporation. He is currently a staff member of Informatics General Corporation, a NASA contractor providing software support for Ames Research Center. He developed a Discrete Event model of the fiber-optics based Local Area Network (LAN) for Space Station and is currently working on the Numerical Aerodynamical Simulator (NAS) project.
Parker Rossman, Ph.D., author, lecturer and futurist, is former Dean of the Ecumenical Continuing Education Center at Yale University. His many published books include Computer: Bridges to the Future (Judson Press, 1985) which includes sections on the potential impact of forthcoming fifth generation computer intellectual tools on research, the shape of thought, institutions, and global action for peace and justice. His articles in The Futurist include an essay on "The Coming Great Electronic Encyclopedia," and he is now writing a popular book for the lay readers on the possibilities for using technology (proposed by Utsumi) for large-scale peace waging which can involve amateurs as well as official government agencies and universities.